Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 48. (Read 12690 times)

The Champions League is back and we are riding the over as Atalanta host PSG. Atalanta have not played since losing 2-0 to Inter Milan at home on August 1, this loss snapped a 20-match unbeaten run. At home, Atalanta had won nine in a row with six of those hitting 4 goals or more. The Italian side has won four in a row and are unbeaten in their last five in the Champions League with their last three hitting 3 goals and their last two hitting 5 or more goals. PSG is just getting back to competitive matches after Ligue 1 was canceled in March. Since PSG has resumed play, they have won all five matches, three friendlies and two Cup matches. We expect the French side to break out this afternoon after being held to just 2 goals in their last three matches, they beat Lyon on Penalties in the Coupe de le Ligue after going scoreless in regular time. In the Champions League, PSG have won six of their last seven matches with five hitting 3 or more goals and three of the last six hitting 4 or more goals. They are due with this talented of a side for a big score line. They play an equally attacking team in Atalanta that can drop a few goals quickly and easily.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Josh Richardson are all out for the 76ers today. Tobias Harris and Al Horford are questionable, but either most likely out or they aren't going to catch many minutes. So basically it is the 76ers C-team against the streaking Suns. Phoenix has been on fire and they are playing hard, fighting for the last slot in the playoffs. When that many guys are out or a team that bench players usually step up offensively. The 76ers have rung up 240 points in three of their last five games and I can see them getting to 230 in this one. I think that the Suns are going to keep on rolling and I don't see the 76ers standing in their way. The Sixers will put some points on the board in this one but I think the Suns will be too much. I can see this one around 122-110.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Tuesday Basketball Bonanza 
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NBA
LOSS - Take UNDER 240 POINTS between Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers (6:30 p.m., Tuesday, Aug. 11th)

I know that these restart games have been really high-scoring and the 'over' is hitting all over the place. But 240 points is a tough ask. The Mavericks scored 268 their last time out but 30 of them came in OT. In fact, three of their five games have gone to OT and the Houston game was the only full-tilt game of the bunch. To pass this bar the teams have to average 5 points a minute for the full 48. One bad quarter or one shooting funk will blow the total. I can see in the low 230's but I don't see these guys getting near 250, which is what it takes to clear this bar.

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WIN - Take OVER 226 POINTS between Memphis Grizzlies - Boston Celtics (5 p.m., Tuesday, Aug. 11th)
WIN - Take BOSTON CELTICS -3 POINTS over Memphis Grizzlies (5 p.m., Tuesday, Aug. 11th)

I don't think that the Celtics are going to rest many of their starters here in this game. I think that finding chemistry among their players - who haven't played together all that much this season because of injury - is more important than saving some minutes. Boston has been clicking lately, putting up 122, 122 and 149 points in their last game. In fact, kick out their 106-point game against the rugged Heat and Boston has been averaging around 127 points per game in the restart. Memphis' offense has been up and down and all over the place. They have only cracked 120 points twice. But they hit another low by scoring just 99 points against Toronto on 40 percent shooting from the floor. After the last time they managed 99 points (against New Orleans) they bounced back with 115 and then 121. I have a hard time seeing them not going balls out today. I think that Boston is going to continue its scoring groove and I don't see them scoring fewer than 115. Memphis just needs to beat 110 and that will get us over. Neither team shot the ball well in their last game, especially from deep, and I think they will both be better offensively in this one.

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WIN - Take SACRAMENTO KINGS -2.5 POINTS over New Orleans Pelicans (9 p.m., Tuesday, Aug. 11th)

The Pelicans are kind of a mess right now. They have issues on both ends of the court. Just bet against them.

We roll with the Over here as these two teams as though the total seems a bit high, we think it has a shot at going decently over. As it relates to this selection, you have a Vegas team that did not play well against NY and shot just 1/8 from 3 point land and managed to win by 2 points against a team they were favored by 13 points over. Of course, we are ok with this considering we were on NY +13 in that game. But, per this game, Indiana is playing its best basketball of the year and beat Vegas last year and come off a monumental win over Washington the defending champs. Do they have a let down here? Maybe. But, we think that the fact they are 3-4 right now, needing a big win here and Vegas coming off a series of wins, they will get up to face one of the elite teams in the WNBA led by the best coach in WNBA History in Bill Lambeer (yes, that same Bill who was blackballed by Jordan in the NBA but found excellence in the WNBA). Look for Vegas to shoot better, Indiana to be an active dog and this game to consequently go over the posted total today.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

As per our selection on Wolves, we feel that they are the better and more complete team and they come into this game in great form and we expect that to continue against a Sevilla side who was the beneficiary of playing a Roma squad that was out of sorts in their last match. Wolves play excellent defense and they counter-attack as good as anyone in the world. Wolves will be able to soak up all the Sevilla pressure and hit them on the counter for a goal or two. This is Wolves' best shot at putting themselves on the European map and we believe they take this chance well and make It count.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I will take the points in this game. The Lakers have been struggling since clinching the No. 1 seed. They are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games since clinching and they are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Denver is coming off a nice OT win over Utah. They are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games and this team is getting healthy and getting some key players back. I think that they will keep it going and the Lakers will continue to rest players and wait for the playoffs. Take the points and look for another upset.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We'll go with the Dodgers here to win the 1ST 5 innings over the Padres. May (Dodgers' pitcher) has been lights out in his last game and took down 8 batters from the opposing team in their last faceoff. Dodgers also won all the 3 games he started with it. On the other hand, Richards has been getting beat up a little bit and I think the Dodgers will jump on him early.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

There is a lot of things to unpack in this game. For starters, Warren gets to face Jimmy Butler after their altercation which caused some choice words to be said and both players saying they will see the other out back. The Video is on Youtube and it is ugly. However, these two get to lace it back up today as Butler is back from injury and Warren is probably the best player in the Bubble right now averaging nearly 40 points per game and just showed up Lebron and Davis who only had 39 points combined in their last game as the Pacers are playing elite defense and have a Legit 1/2 punch here with Warren and Oladipo. The Pacers are for real, and they play great defense and rebound the ball. The Heat won't have Dragic because of the Quarantine, won't have Nunn here for similar reasons and will get Butler back and Herro is playing well but they are not at full strength and the Pacers have some big revenge here. Look for Warren to ball out like crazy tonight and the Pacers have a great shot at winning this game Outright here. There is some real bad blood here and we like Indiana to win and possibly win Outright here today and we will gladly take the points.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We roll with the Over here between these two teams as we are aware that Tarausi and her back pain likely means she does not play today but we still like the Over. This team shot the ball so terribly in their last game against an elite Seattle defense and held them to less than 70 points as they shot 4/20 in 3 point land. Look for Phoenix to shoot the ball much better today against a Dallas team that struggles to play defense at times and at the same time, Dallas will face one of the worst defenses in the league in Phoenix and they will be able to score with relative ease today. If Dallas can put up 85 points on Atlanta's defense which is improving, look for them to score even more here against Phoenix. Hence, we like Dallas to be an active underdog and consequently look for this game to go Over the posted total and likely to be higher scoring here today. Look for a likely fast paced game today.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I see a blowout in this game. I think that Oklahoma City is going to be resting several key players in this one. That is why this line has jumped from -2 to -5 to -7.5. I think it will continue to go up this afternoon so bet this one soon. Phoenix is undefeated since the restart and they have been one of the best teams in the bubble. This young team is healthy and playing hard as they try to sneak into the Western Conference playoffs as the No. 9 seed and force a play-in game. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against team with a winning record. I think that they will keep it going today.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

The Blazers are 3-2 in this restart and the two losses have been two tough ones to the Celtics and Clippers. They cannot afford to many more setbacks if they want to get into the playoffs so look for Dame $ to be in peak form in this one. Philly is in the playoffs but look to be headed for another lackluster exit if they can't figure some things out on both ends. Ben Simmons is out for the season. I expect the 76ers to rally early in this game without him. But then the reality that any hope they had of making any noise in the postseason is gone is going to sink in. This has a Portland win written all over it. They also have to decide how much they are going to play and expose their other star, Joel Embiid, in a game that doesn't really impact their postseason positioning. Portland doesn't have any comparable illusions about what this game means. They have to win it. I think they do.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Sunday Hockey Bonanza 
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NHL
LOSS - Take TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS over Columbus Blue Jackets (8:00 PM, Sunday, August 9th)

This is really a play against Columbus play here after how Game 4 ended the other night. The Jackets, in their minds, all but had the series wrapped up after leading the Leafs 3-0 with five minutes to play. Toronto then scored three goals to tie the game before winning by a final score of 4-3 in overtime. Now, Columbus has to put that behind them and come out and win an elimination game and we just don't see that happening. They are just 4-9 in their last thirteen games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have lost nine of their last twelve where they were listed as the underdog. Throw in the fact that the favorite has won seven of the last ten head to head meetings between the two teams and we're going to lay the price here with the Leafs to get the win in Toronto on Sunday night.

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LOSS - Take ST LOUIS BLUES over Dallas Stars (3:00 PM, Sunday, August 9th)

The Blues have posted a 4-1 record in their last five games where they faced a team with a winning % of .500 or higher and they have gone an excellent 5-1 in their last six versus a Central Division rival. They have also won nine of their last eleven games where they were listed as the favorite and they are an impressive 10-4 in their last fourteen games overall. The Stars, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here today as they have gone 0-4 in their last four versus a team from the Central Division and they are 0-6 in their last six versus a team from the Western Conference. They have also lost each of their last five games where they were listed as the underdog and they come into the game today riding an eight game losing streak. Throw in the fact that the Blues are 6-1 in the last seven head to head meetings between the two teams and we're going to lay the short price with them here to get the win in Edmonton on Sunday afternoon.

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WIN - Take WASHINGTON CAPITALS over Boston Bruins (12:00 PM, Sunday, August 9th)

The Capitals have posted a 4-1 record in their last five games where they faced a team with a winning % of .600 or higher and they have gone an excellent 10-3 in their last thirteen games where they were listed as an underdog. The Bruins, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here today as they have gone 0-5 in their last five playoff games where they were listed as the favorite. Throw in the fact that the Caps are a lights out 35-16 in the last 51 head to head meetings between the two teams and we're going to take them at the small underdog price to get the win in Toronto on Sunday afternoon.

As per our selection here on Dustin Johnson, we have loved his golf game this week and we believe he is prime to capture this tournament on the heels of a great final round. Scheffler has had a solid three rounds so far putting him in the final pairing, but we've run our numbers and models and we see excellent value taking a much more experienced DJ on a course that figures to play long and hard once again today.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

In the co-main event of the evening, we have a matchup in the middleweight division between Chris Weidman (14-5) and Omari Akhmedov (20-4). This is an interesting fight from a narrative standpoint, as everyone believes Weidman is shot, has taken too much damage, and has a porcelain beak. The public is eating this up and is all over Omari. We would argue this is not the case. Now do not get us wrong - we do have our concerns with Chris Weidman just like everyone else, but we are not writing him off just yet, especially in the middleweight division. His last fight, he moved up to light-heavyweight and was knocked out by Dominick Reyes. We are willing to overlook that one. He should never have moved up to light-heavyweight, and not against a monster like Dom Reyes. Keep in mind, this is a guy that some believed beat the best of all-time in Jon Jones! Weidman has only won 1 of his last 6 fights, which is truly quite shocking considering the good performances he was putting in. His last 3 losses at middleweight were against Jacare Souza, Gegard Mousasi and Yoel Romero. These are all fights he was handedly winning, until he simply got caught by these top-ranked monsters. No disrespect to Omari, but I think it is safe to say he is not in the category of the fighters we just mentioned. Weidman is also an outstanding wrestler, and that should not be taken lightly. He is world class in that department! Now, Omari Akhmedov has looked pretty good in the UFC but the level of competition is far lower than what Chris has faced. You could argue his best win was against Ian Heinisch? You see where we are going with this? He also is not a huge power puncher as his last knockout win was back in 2015, and then 2013 before that. There is not much else to say. Weidman can always run the risk of being cracked and wobbled, but word on the street is he will heavily utilize his wrestling in this bout, and we believe if he commits to that game-plan, that he will have an easy path to victory. Weidman needs this win more than ever... his career is on the line and he will not play with fire and risk that by having a standup war. Weidman by utter domination is a legitimate outcome here and we must trust in his abilities one more time, while everyone else is writing him off.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Minnesota lost back to back games for the first time this season yesterday, but I think they will snap that losing streak tonight. 2019 All-Star Jake Odorizzi will be making his season debut as he took his time to return from an intercostal strain. Danny Duffy will be on the mound for Kansas City and is 0-2 despite pitching pretty well. He had a tough time getting the Twins out last year in two starts as he allowed 11 earned runs on 14 hits (with 7 of those leaving the ball park) over 12.2 innings. Minnesota is bopping home runs this year as they have hit the fourth most so far this season in the majors, and I think they will take Duffy deep a couple times tonight. I think the Twins get the win tonight and even up the series.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Saturday UFC and Basketball Bonanza  
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs Oleinik
LOSS - Take SCOTT HOLTZMAN over Beneil Dariush (9:10p.m., Saturday, August 8th)

We have a lightweight matchup kicking off the main card of "UFC on ESPN+ 32" between Scott Holtzman (14-3) and Beneil Dariush (18-4). Beneil Dariush looked like a real contender when he entered the UFC, winning 6 of his first 7 fights with high level kickboxing, a patient fighting style and a Black Belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu to match. However, after he suffered a devastating loss to Edson Barboza, things slowed down a little. He followed that up with an underwhelming performance vs. Evan Dunham which ended in a majority draw, and then was knocked out brutally once again at the hands of Alexander Hernandez. Since that loss however, he has managed to reel off four straight victories, but do not let the record fool you as before submitting Drew Dober in 2019, he was on the wrong side of a 10-8 first round. There is no doubt that Dariush has tremendous talent and technique, but his heart and overall durability is in severe question at this point. Enter Scott Holtzman... Holtzman is a very tough out for anybody. He brings a high-pressure approach and comes to fight each time as he looks for hard overhands and head rattling uppercuts as his opponents come forward. Holtzman does have a workable ground game which can be seen by his brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he will not want to test that out against Beneil. Dariush has his confidence back, which usually would be considered a good thing - but against such a high motor opponent in Holtzman, who feels he has something to prove, this is a spot where you'll want to stay more careful in your approach. As we mentioned before, the chin and durability of Dariush is a huge question mark, and we think this is potentially an awful matchup for him. It is easy to see why the oddsmakers set this line. You only must look at each fighter's resume to understand who has fought the higher-level competition and performed on the bigger stage. That is about the extent of a public bettors' research and the books know this, setting Dariush as the -200 favorite. However, seasoned mixed martial arts bettors know that talent alone does not win you fights. Matchups are everything, and we believe this is a spot where Holtzman can shine and shut the lights out. He will have to be careful and avoid the clinch/grappling approach of Dariush, but we think it's only a matter of time before a big shot lands and Beniel is finding himself in a world of trouble. We will take the value with the dog here, which has a lot of bite.

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LOSS - Take ALEKSEI OLEINIK over Derrick Lewis (11:10p.m., Saturday, August 8th)

In the main event of the evening we have a heavyweight matchup between Aleksei Oleinik (59-13) and Derrick Lewis (23-7). This is a fun fight and one that will be a clear "hindsight bet" once we know who wins. There is not too much to say on this fight in all honesty... Derrick Lewis is not the best mixed martial artist, and lacks a lot of technical ability, but he possesses some freakish power. He is one of the hardest hitters in the organization and if he lands remotely clean, you will find yourself being removed from consciousness. The weird thing about Derrick Lewis is his lack of consistency. Sometimes he brings some real determination to the fight and pushes himself to win by any means necessary, and other times he will simply look like he does not want to be there. Aleksei Oleinik is one of the best submission fighters in MMA history. He has 59 wins, and an astonishing 46 of those have come by submission! Derrick Lewis has only been submitted once, but that statistic can be thrown out. He has not grappled with anybody like Aleksei. If this goes to the ground, Oleinik will be able to finish. The way Derrick Lewis tries to stand back up is awkward and utilizes brute power. That will not work here. He will give up his back and that will spell the end. There is of course the possibility that he stays standing, and that is where things could get ugly for Oleinik. However, it should be noted he isn't as bad on the feet as most think - he is serviceable and Derrick Lewis will not be able to simply run forward and throw haymakers with no worry of the strikes coming back. Lewis has not shown good cardio, nor the ability to consistently stop takedowns. There is a clear path to victory for both fighters, but we have to take the more talented technician here, and as long as he survives the early portion of Round 1, we think he will find a way to get win number 60. While we do not love the wild variance that could take place in this bout, value is value and that is the golden rule to making long-term profits.

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NBA
WIN - Take INDIANA PACERS +8 POINTS over Los Angeles Lakers (6 p.m., Saturday, Aug. 8th)

This game is a great example of two teams that have two opposing thought processes with remaining games of the restart before playoffs start. LA has its seeding sewn up and they have absolutely nothing to play for so they will be resting guys. The Pacers on the other hand can get as high as the 4th seed in the East so they will be balls to the wall from here on out. The points are a nice little bonus in this game but Indiana will have a solid chance to steal a win in this one.

The Dinos are the best team in the league but they do not have the edge in pitching tonight. They will send Mike Wright to the mound and he has not earned a victory since June 25th. His opponent is Drew Gagnon and he is coming off a bad outing last time out but that was his only bad performance since May 31st. He pitched well against NC this season throwing 6 1/3 innings and giving up just two runs to earn the victory.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We are going back to the Pens on Friday as we feel their 4-3 loss on Wednesday was a complete shocker. The Pens gave up a two goal lead in the second period allowing three unanswered. Having lost in OT in game one, they picked up a much needed win in game two. But now down 2-1, this is a must win against a team that fell into the playoffs. This is not the same team that lifted back to back Stanley Cups, but it is still one of the more talented teams in the NHL. I would be pissed off coming into game four if I were the Pens. They face a Montreal side that lost their last three games before the shutdown. The Canadiens scored 12 less goals from two more games than Pittsburg in the regular season and gave up 25 more goals. Everything here points to the Pens and we expect game for to go Pittsburgh's way. Crosby has been in every situation and he's a 3 time cup winner, this team was literally up 3-1 and let it slip away, I think Pittsburgh gets back on the saddle today just fine.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

As per your selection on Juventus to win this game, you have to love the fact that they are playing at home in this matchup where they have won 11 out of their last 15 games with just two losses. Juventus are a scoring machine at home, having scored at least 2 goals in 12 of those last 15 matches, and having been only shutout just one time (0-0 draw). Juventus know they need to win this game at least 2-0 if they are to progress and they will in fact due so on the strengths of a fully fit squad - one that just wrapped up the season a week ago. Lyon has played just one competitive fixture since March and that was a 1-0 Cup match loss to PSG. This Lyon team is terrible on their travels having won none of their last five matches and we don't expect them to break that trend here today. Juventus wins this game.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Unfortunately, I only gave out 2 leans today on NBA and both of them lost.

You're view on Memphis - OKC game is on-point and hopefully, you went ahead with your bet on them because they slaughtered OKC. I'll be providing NBA picks and UFC picks later so watch out for it.