Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 50. (Read 12658 times)

This looks like a very public line to us. Philly is the more popular team here, but these teams have identical records. But bettors like Philly more, hence the big line here. Oladipo was active in the shootaround this morning and there are indications he could play tonight. He's Indiana's best player and would give the team a huge boost. But the main reason we like this pick is because the Sixers have been so bad away from home this season. In the friendly confines of their home arena they are 29-2. On the road they are 10-24 this season. These are some strange circumstances, but we just can't trust the Sixers to be laying this many points against a comparable team when we haven't seen if they can shake their funk of playing away from home. The Pacers are 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings, and we think they could challenge for the outright win here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT - Brunson vs Shahbazyan  
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DRAW - Take Cody Durden over Chris Gutierrez (6:12p.m., Saturday, August 1st)

First up in the Bantamweight division we have a matchup between Cody Durden (11-2) and Chris Gutierrez (15-3). Guttierrez is a solid martial artist with good, technical striking and was getting ready to fight Luke Sanders - however, that fight has since been scratched and he will now face late replacement Cody Durden, who brings a completely different style. This can be a tricky situation to adjust to as a fighter. Durden will be making his UFC debut, and really has nothing to lose in this spot. Durden does have some decent wrestling and he gets in and out of the pocket well while showing some impressive grit and determination on the regional scene. There is no doubt that Gutierrez is the more polished athlete, and has the UFC experience, but he is not a world beater by any means. Durden will need to get inside, get this contest to the ground, and keep it there long enough to win rounds. Do we think that happens? We are unsure. However, +250 on a fighter that has a definite path to victory is simply too much. Long-term followers will know by now that we make our profits in these ugly dogs, and Cody Durden fits the bill.

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LOST - Take Frankie Saenz over Jonathan Martinez (8:25p.m., Saturday, August 1st)

Next up in the Bantamweight division we have a matchup between UFC veteran, Frankie Saenz (12-6) and Jonathan Matinez (11-3). Frankie Saenz is a decent fighter who has a ton of experience at the highest level. He has good wrestling, and solid ability in basically every department. He will be taking on Jonathan Martinez, who has impressed us more than we expected when he first entered the UFC. Martinez utilizes his length well and has a sharp standup game which lands with accuracy. He can push the pace or lay-back and counter beautifully. He is a potential prospect in the division. The main concern in this fight is Saenz has been inactive and is starting to show his age with his cardio issues. The good news for Saenz inactivity is that he has not been through a ton of wars so is a little fresher than your typical 39-year-old. This is a big challenge for Martinez, and one the UFC is hoping he will pass. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure, and the takedown attempts. This is a fight where Saenz may look great in the early going, but the wheels may fall off as the fight wears on and Matinez starts to land strikes. This is going to be a close fight and could go either way. Until Martinez proves to us, he can handle the spotlight, and a fighter with the overall IQ and wrestle-heavy approach that Saenz possesses, we will slow down on the hype just a little bit. Win or lose, the value is on the dog here.

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WIN - Take Bobby Green over Lando Vannatta (9:35p.m., Saturday, August 1st)

Moving over to the main card, we have a Lightweight rematch between Bobby Green (25-10) and Lando Vannatta (11-4). First, let us say, this should be a great fight. Both men are willing to throw hands and take damage to deal some of their own. Lando Vannatta has been a fun, but frustrating fighter to watch since coming to the UFC. He has tremendous talent, with crisp striking, smooth movements, and perfect timing, but his fight IQ really lets him down. His intelligence and decision making has been very, very questionable in spots. He also seems to fight up, or down to the level of his opponent. Bobby Green on the other hand is one of those guys who is far better than his record indicates. He really has struggled to get that consistent streak going, which is frustrating to see considering the clear talent and skill set he brings to the table. The difficult thing with Bobby Green is trying to gauge where he is at mentally. Some fights he will enter the octagon with a swagger, and immovable confidence, and others he will simply look disinterested and outright bored. This is a tough one to call. There is no doubt in our mind that Green is the more polished fighter and has more ways to win minutes. Both men will need to implement a patient approach as trying to get this thing over with fast would be a mistake. Both can counter strike, and both have power. All things considered, we believe Bobby Green has all the tools necessary to get this one done, if he shows up interested and ready to engage. The wrong man is favored in our opinion and there is far too much value to pass up.

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WIN - Take Derek Brunson over Edmen Shahbazyan (10:50p.m., Saturday, August 1st)

For the main event of the evening, we have a Middleweight matchup between Derek Brunson (20-7) and undefeated Edmen Shahbazyan (11-0). This is a weird contest for a few reasons. Brunson has had an up and down career, and it has been hard to gauge just how good he can be. He is a hard hitter which can be shown by 11 wins by KO, but he has also been knocked out 5 times himself. There are some definite concerns with his fight IQ and his ability to take a punch. He will need to be extremely careful if he wants to stay in the pocket and throw down with Edmen. Shahbazyan has 9 wins by knockout, and while he is undefeated and looks impressive, he is still incredibly raw. This is a big fight for the 22-year old. The general narrative of this fight is that Brunson will come running forward like he did vs. Whittaker and get clipped. We are not denying this is a possibility, but it seems as though people are forgetting his other strengths. For example, he is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under none other than Renzo Gracie and has some serious NCAA D2 wrestling chops. We do not expect this fight to be as easy as most think for Edmen, and while we do favor him in this spot, it is simply impossible to jump the gun and set the price this high. It's a big step up in competition, and in a main event, nonetheless. Who knows how the young kid will perform under the bright lights? It has been a smooth ride for him so far in his perfect career, but when the going gets tough, how will he respond? These are all questions we want answers to, and we will be more than willing to pay +280 to find out.

I really like this Mavericks team. I think that they are going to be a real sleeper in the West in the postseason. This team has been able to get healthy and they have a killer one-two punch with Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. They play a similar style to Houston in that they shoot a ton of 3-pointers. However, this is a better matchup for the Mavs than the Rockets because of the size that Dallas can throw at Houston. Porzingis is 7-3, Boban Marjanovic is 7-4, and Maxi Kleber is 6-10. They should dominate the interior against Houston's small ball lineup. So if the teams are close or equal with regards to 3-point shooting I think Dallas' advantage in the paint will pay dividends. The public loves the Rockets in this game, with most of the action in on Houston. But the line is starting to move the other way. I think Dallas will do enough to find a way to win this one in spite of Houston's star power.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

We roll with the Over here as we think there is a lot of motivation for this game to be higher scoring. Note, the Kings have not made the playoffs in 14 years and they are excited about the prospect of doing just that with Luke Walton leading the way in these last 8 games. Note, that Barnes is back from Covid which should give this team some depth and they have Fox back as well. Also note, that this team has Hield off the bench with Bogdonavich starting and that gives them a solid scoring punch throughout as it is very consistent. The Spurs will likely go small this game as Aldridge is out for the year so with White, Murray, Derozan and a slew of guards - they are going to have to shoot the ball well and there will likely be a lot more tempo and a lot more outside shooting and consequently this game likely goes over the posted total today. Note, great 6-1 Start to the MLB Season, let's pick up a solid win and move to 7-1 on the season.

Aldridge out, Barnes back from Cvoid, Fox back from tweaking his foot, this team beat Grizzlies, Blazers and Spurs lost to Cavs and routed by Nets, Kings closer to making playoffs than Spurs.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Friday Basketball Bonanza  
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NBA
LOST - Take BROOKLYN NETS ML over Orlando Magic (2:30 p.m., Friday, July 31st)

Both games went 'under' last night and neither was anywhere close. I think it might take the books a bit to adjust their totals to this bubble situation. The guys aren't in full form, either, so it may take a bit for them to find their offense and find their strokes. This early afternoon tip-off isn't going to help either. Nor is the fact that Brooklyn is missing some of its best players. I just don't see how the Nets are going to generate enough offense against a tough Orlando defense to help push this one 'over'. I also don't know that I trust the Magic to blow out the Nets. I can see this one around 101-95 and I think the Nets find a way to hang around.

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LOST - Take UNDER 224.0 between Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies (4 p.m., Friday, July 31st)

So this one is a little random, but I watched Memphis' last scrimmage. They played the Heat and they absolutely could not miss. They scored 128 points and shot nearly 50 percent from 3-point range. I just don't think they are going to be able to do that again here. Portland has been able to get healthy - including getting their big men back - and I think that's going to help them on the defensive end. I'm betting on a little regression here from the Grizz.

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WIN - Take PHOENIX SUNS -6.5 POINTS over Washington Wizards (4 p.m., Friday, July 31st)

The Suns have as exciting a team as there is in the bubble. They feature two young budding stars in Booker and Ayton and have Ricky Rubio running the show, so things are looking good in the Desert. They have a less than ideal schedule to try and steal a playoff spot, but they will get a gift in their opener against the Wiz. Washington has a functioning G-League team and they may not even be that at times. They were winning games in large part to Brad Beal and he is not around so they will struggle. Take Phoenix in this one with little worry.

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WIN - Take MILWAUKEE BUCKS -4.5 POINTS over Boston Celtics (6:30 p.m., Friday, July 31st)

There are a lot of reasons to like the Celtics in this one. They are healthy. They need this game more. They really want to send a message to the Bucks that they are for real. Milwaukee isn't at 100 percent in this one, either, and the Bucks have questionable motivation with the No. 1 seed essentially locked up. So everything points to Boston. However, I'm going the other way. I think the Bucks are the best team in the field and they have a great system. Boston still has some things it needs to work out, chemistry wise, and I think it will take a couple weeks before they are really able to challenge the Bucks.

Don't be fooled by Puebla's spot at the top of the table. They beat a bad Mazatlan side 4-1 in the opener, but by the end of this mini-season I'm sure they will resume their spot near the bottom of the barrel. Puebla hasn't finished better than No. 10 in any of the last six half-seasons, including a horrid No. 18 finish last fall. This is also another situation where Cruz Azul is not only better - they have finished in the Top five in four of the last five season, including No. 1 twice - but they have had more opportunity to find their form. Puebla has only played that one match since March. Cruz Azul has played six matches since the restart, winning every one of them. They have pounded several teams that are much better than Puebla and I think that they will continue their hot streak.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I just don't think that there is this large of a discrepancy between these two teams that Sporting KC should be a +250 favorite in this game. That's created a situation where we might actually have the better team plays the advantage of an extra half-goal for no extra vig. I absolutely think that Philadelphia can win this game outright. But the extra half-goal means that if this match ends in a draw we win as well. So we have two of three true outcomes covered in this matchup. Philly has been fighting and clawing this whole tournament. They were sharp in their win over New England and they have had extra rest compared to Kansas City. SKC played Sunday, they had to go to extra time and they won an emotional game in penalty kicks. This is a quick turnaround for them. I think KC has had an easier path to this spot and I'll play the value on the underdog here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Friday Baseball Bonanza  
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

KOREAN BASEBALL LEAGUE
LOST - Take LOTTE over Kia (5:30 a.m., Friday, July 31st)

I'm going to keep riding the Dan Straily train. Aaron Brooks has been good. But no one has been better than Straily lately. He has allowed just one run over his last four starts - all wins - and has 26 strikeouts to just five walks during that stretch. His ERA is down to 1.88 on the season and just 1.38 over his last 11 starts. Let's go to the well here.

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WIN - Take NC DINOS over Doosan (5:30 a.m., Friday, July 31st)

Drew Rucinski actually had some issues his last time out, allowing nearly 10 base runners. Thats' a lot for him! And the fact that allowing two runs in seven innings qualifies as a so-so start for him shows how dominant he has been for the league's best team. He has aced Doosan twice this year, allowing just two runs and seven hits over 13 innings. I think he'll keep dominating.

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WIN - Take KT WIZ over SK Wyverns (5:30 a.m., Friday, July 31st)

Bill Cuevas took a little bit to get going. But he's locked in now. He has three straight starts allowing just one run apiece and if you kick out a tough outing against Kiwoom on July 4 he has a 1.37 ERA dating back to the end of May. SK's lineup has been terrible all season long and I don't see them breaking through against a hot arm.

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LOST - Take LG TWINS over Hanwha (5:30 a.m., Friday, July 31st)

Things haven't come as easily for Casey Kelly this year after a great 2019. However, he has faced Hanwha twice this year and has allowed just one run in 12.1 innings while posting 21 strikeouts to just three walks. He is coming off one of his worst starts of the year, giving up five runs to Doosan. But Kelly has been awesome in the bounce back this season. His ERA after allowing four or more earned runs is 1.68 in five starts, including three starts with one or fewer runs allowed.

Toronto needed a front line starter for their pitching staff so they signed Hyun Jin Ryu in the off season after he went 14-5 with a 2.32 ERA over 29 starts for the Dodgers last year. Ryu was great in his home starts, but he won't be pitching in the friendly confines of Dodgers Stadium or even Toronto for that fact. The Blue Jays will be playing their home games in Buffalo, NY, but Ryu has dominated the Nationals wherever he has faced them. In three starts against the Nationals last season, two of which were in D.C, Ryu allowed 3 earned runs on 13 hits over 19.2 innings with his team winning all three contests. Washington has been struggling at the plate without having Anthony Rendon (left in free agency), Ryan Zimmerman (opted out), and Juan Soto (Covid) in their lineup and I think that will continue tonight. Erick Fedde will make another start filling in for Stephen Strasburg, he lasted just four innings against the Yankees in his first start allowing 2 runs on 4 hits. I think the Jays win today and take three of four from the defending champions.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I ran this matchup through my model and I believe Morikawa has value at this number. Morikawa has played extremely well over the last month or so, while Matsuyama has been inconsistent at best. This course should fit Morikawa's eye and we'll take him in this match up as we expect him to get off to a hot start.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

After watching LG bust loose for 35 runs the first two games of the series, SK should hold them in-check with a hot pitcher, at least for the first 5 innings in this one. SK sends Jong Hoon Park to the mound and after a tough start to the season, Park has settled down and has a 3.48 ERA in his last four starts, while allowing just 20 hits in 23.1 IP. Park also has 30 K's in his last 28 innings of work. LG counters with Chan Gyu Lim, who has also been at his best of late. Lim has allowed just 9 earned runs in his last 35.2 IP, and in fact, has allowed 1 run once and no runs three times in four of his last six outings. I don't want to mess with the bullpens, so we'll play the Under in the first 5 innings between LG & SK. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Per this selection, the first couple games have been relatively high scoring as the Pirates won 8-6 yesterday and the Brewers won 6-5 the day before. These two pitchers have a lot to prove here and some of the best arms these teams have and I suspect it will be a lower scoring affair here. Woodruff and Musgrove under performed last year near the end of the season and with a fresh season and a live arm, look for both these pitchers to step up here and to likely shut down the opposing offenses somewhat here. Both these offenses are a bit hit and miss and I think this will be a drag out game that likely finishes 4-3 one way or the other but goes Under.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I think AC Milan is going to come to play today. Sampdoria has a -14 goal differential and they really don't have anything to play for. They are coming off a 2-0 loss to Juventus and they have lost two in a row, including falling to Genoa. AC Milan can still play its way into fifth place and a guaranteed spot in the Europa League group stage (rather than the qualification round). They have also been on fire, in part because of the addition of Zlatan earlier this year. They have won seven of 10 (taking draws in the other three) and they have buried bad teams, winning by multiple goals against teams like Lecce, Parma and Bologna, while also scoring multiple-goal wins over good teams like Juventus, Lazio and Roma. I think they can bury Sampdoria here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Wednesday Soccer Bonanza  
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ITALY SERIE A
WIN - Take Lazio over Brescia (1:30 p.m., Wednesday, July 29th)

Brescia is a terrible team with nothing to play for. Lazio is in fourth place, currently, but is in a battle with Inter and Atalanta for second place in the table. Maybe that's motivation, maybe it isn't. But the reality is that they are off back-to-back wins, including a 5-1 beat down of Verona on July 26, and I think they can pick their score here.

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WIN - Take Lecce over Udinese (1:30 p.m., Wednesday, July 29th)

Udinese has scummed out back-to-back wins and I think that they have been playing over their heads. I don't see their motivation at all here against one of the league's worst teams. Lecce at least has something to play for, as they have a slim chance to play their way out of the relegation zone.

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LOST - Take Genoa over Sassuolo (1:30 p.m., Wednesday, July 29th)

This is a huge game for Genoa. They are four points ahead of Lecce for 17th place and clearance of relegation. They have the potential to clinch a spot in Serie A for next year if Lecce loses. But they can also punch their own ticket with a win. And even one point off a draw would do the trick if Lecce doesn't pull an upset over Udinese. Bottom line: this team has a lot to play for. Sassuolo is a much better team. But Genoa should be going full tilt.

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LOST - Take UNDER 3.0 GOALS between Fiorentina and Bologna (3:45 p.m., Wednesday, July 29th)

These are two tough, grinder teams and they have combined for just 95 scored goals in their 36 games apiece. Neither one really has much to play for in this match so I don't see a lot of guys getting thrown forward. Both teams are really just playing out the string and I will be stunned to see four or more goals in this match. Bologna is off a rare 3-2 match its last time out and they have gone 'over' in two of three. Fiorentina has only had four or more goals in two of their last 10. I don't see it here.

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WIN - Take UNDER 3.0 GOALS between Cagliari and Juventus (3:45 p.m., Wednesday, July 29th)

Juventus clinched the league title its last time out so they really have nothing to play for here. Cagliari just don't score many goals and they really struggle on the offensive end. They have also been playing terrible lately, failing to win in eight straight while only mustering three goals. They've been shut out in five of their last eight and I don't see them cracking Juventus' defense - which has allowed the second-fewest goals in the league.

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WIN - Take Roma over Torino (3:45 p.m., Wednesday, July 29th)

Nothing to discuss here. Just make the bet.  

NC & Lotte combined to score 20 runs in Tuesday's contest and I expect another high scoring game on Wednesday. The Dinos remain the highest scoring team in the KBO and should find their at-bats to their liking against Won Sam Jang. The Lotte pitcher has made 4 starts and the only outing with any success came against lowly Hanwha. Jang was tagged for 16 earned runs and 28 base runners in his other 3 starts, spanning just 13.3 IP. He managed just 5 strikeouts in those outings and allowed 3 HRs. Sung Yung Choi has control issues for NC, walking 11 batters in his last 14.1 IP. His ERA is north of 5.00, with a hefty WHIP to go along with it. I expect both teams to do damage at the plate once again and I'm playing the Over between NC & Lotte on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

The Portland Timbers finished on top of Group D and I was really impressed on how they played against Los Angeles FC. They drew against LAFC 2-2 but again they were able to slow down the LAFC at times and let's face it FC Cincinnati is not LAFC. FC Cincinnati will be without striker Jurgen Locadia and even if he does play how healthy will he be for this huge knockout stage pitch. With Portland being rested and most likely full strength I see the Timbers taking this pitch and I see them winning 3-1 in another late high scoring MLS game.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

This may be one of the marquee matchups of the entire MLS is Back tournament. You have the reigning MLS Champions Seattle Sounders playing the hot new comers LAFC. Seattle finished in second place in their group after going 1-1-1, but finishing one point ahead of third place Vancouver. Seattle comes off a 3-0 win over Vancouver which was a great bounce back from their 2-1 loss to Chicago who finished last in their group. This 2-1 loss to Chicago was Seattle's first MLS loss 11 matches, having won seven of the 11. They face an LAFC that finish two points back of Portland in their group, but had one of the best goal difference at +4 in the tournament. LAFC opened their tournament with a 3-3 draw against Houston before crush local rivals LA Galaxy 6-2 in their second match to drew 2-2 to Portland in the final match of the group stage. LAFC now face a side that is as talented and one that will be a true test. LAFC have been flying too high through this tournament with their offense needing to keep up with a leaky defense. We expect this to be a very low scoring match.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I like San Jose to get the win today and move forward to the quarter-finals. Over the three games both sides have played in the group stage, San Jose has been the better side and the one with the more potent attack and better defense (aside from one contest). San Jose has kept two clean sheets against good teams in Seattle and Chicago and we expect them to continue to play well defensively here tonight.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Sporting KC closed out group play by dominating and led them as the top team in the Western Conference. SKC looked really good against Real Salt Lake winning 2-0 and if Vancouver can't control ball possession early I see SKC hitting the back of the net early. With the attacking force of SKC I see a very long night for the Whitecaps and I see SKC winning this pitch 3-1 in a high scoring game.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

Tottenham was a team I was excited about after the restart. I knew they were better than their record and that they were due for a breakout. I was on them just a little too early, but they have gotten it going now, winning three straight and four of five. They are off two dominating wins over Leicester (3-0) and Newcastle (3-1) and they are hitting their peak. The Spurs need this win (and some help from Chelsea) to vault themselves into sixth place and a spot in Europa League. So they have a lot to play for. Crystal Palace has nothing to play for. They have lost seven straight matches and have been terrible since the restart. They've been shutout in three straight matches and have just two goals in their last seven, getting outscored 17-2. I do expect them to get on the board in this match, though. I just expect Tottenham to unleash the hounds. They need a win - not a draw - so if this is tight late they will throw everyone forward and go goal hunting. I have this one at 3-1 for the Spurs.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.