Topic: FADE ME! - (46W - 33L) (+24.05 UNITS) FREE Daily Betting Tips - Startup Thread - page 11. (Read 12690 times)

The Big Ten was the best conference in college basketball this season but everyone knows that and because of that the teams from this league are overvalued in this tournament. We seen evidence of that yesterday as two of the biggest upsets came against Big Ten teams. Maryland finished in the bottom half of the Big Ten this year and posted a losing record in the league yet despite that they were able to get a bid into the NCAA tournament with a 16-13 record overall.

I think Connecticut is one of the most underrated teams in the country. It's been a tale of two seasons for the Huskies this season and can be summed up by when James Bouknight has been healthy. The sophomore sensation is averaging 19 points per game this year and UConn is 11-3 in the games that he's played losing 2 of those 3 games by just 3 points or less. Without Bouknight this is clearly not the same team going just 4-4. The good news for the Huskies is Bouknight is fine now and this Huskies team with him is better than their 15-7 record overall.

Lay the points here with Connecticut.

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I like Syracuse in this game. I think that they will win this game outright. The Orange have battled in the ACC all season long. They made the NCAA Tournament after they weren't sure if they were going to get a bid. I think that they will be focused and they will want to make the most of getting into this tournament. Jim Boeheim is one of the most experienced college basketball coaches in history. He will have his team ready to pull the upset here. The last time Syracuse was a No. 11 seed that barely made the NCAA Tournament was in 2018. They won three games and made the Sweet 16 that year! In 2016 Syracuse barely made the tournament as a No. 10 seed. That year they won four games and made it to the Final Four! Syracuse has performed well as a double-digit seed and as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament and I expect more of the same in this game. Syracuse is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 NCAA Tournament games and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four tournament games as an underdog. San Diego State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games and 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite. I like the Orange to get the job done and to advance with a win here. Take Syracuse.

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I just like the talent on Rutgers better than the talent on Clemson. The Scarlet Knights are the only higher seed to be favored against a lower seed and it is for good reason. Both teams lost games they should not have lost this season but feel Rutgers will be playing with a renewed confidence, as they broke the NCAA Tournament drought of 30 years in 2021. Rutgers has great balance on offense and played in a much better conference this season. Clemson did not do much damage away from home once ACC play started and I am just not sure they can score enough points to keep pace with Rutgers. The Tigers are 3-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Rutgers is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss in their previous game.

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Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the New Orleans Pelicans take on the Trailblazers at the Moda Center in Portland, OR on Thursday night. The Pelicans have posted a 6-1 record to the over in their last seven road games and they have that same 6-1 record to the over in their last seven where they faced a team with a winning record. They have also gone up and over the number in fourteen of their last seventeen games where they were listed as the underdog and they are an impressive 29-6 to the over in their last 35 games overall. The Blazers have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone a perfect 4-0 to the over in their last four games where they faced a team with a winning record and they are 4-1 to the over in their last five at home where they were listed as the favorite. They have also gone over the total in nine of their last twelve games where they were playing with one day of rest and they are a lights out 25-12 to the over in their last 37 games following a straight up in. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 8-3 to the over in their last eleven head to head meetings, including 126-124 and 125-124 wins by the Trailblazers this season and that's where we'll have our play as we think both teams are going to push the pace once again in Portland on Thursday night.

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Phoenix hosts Minnesota on Thursday in the first of back-to-back games between the teams. The Suns have won 18 of its last 22 games and just as impressively have a matching record against the spread. We don't have to go into all things wrong with the T-Wolves but you should know they are 3-13 ATS in road games after a combined score of 245 points or more and even worse 0-11 ATS after a contest where they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher. Finally, home favorites of 10 or more points like the Suns, outscoring their opponents by 6+ points a game, facing an opponent after they allowed 130 points or more, are 28-6 ATS.

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Today, I'm rolling with the Oilers on the road in the battle of Alberta. The Oilers come off back to back losses and lost the last time out to Calgary so they get a chance at some revenge here. The Oilers are tied for second in the division and find themselves just 4 points behind Toronto for the lead. With Winnipeg losing their last time out the Oilers missed a chance to pull within 2 points of 1st place. The Oilers have won 15 of their last 22 games and have been playing great hockey. They gave up 4 goals vs the Flames and 3 of the goals were due to mistakes and turnovers so I expect them to tighten those things up today. The Oilers have taken 4 out of 6 from the Flames this year and are simply the overall better team here. I get that the Flames have been playing well since their coaching change but they still lack some of the weapons that the Oilers have. Anytime you have McDavid and Draisital on the ice you have a chance to break the game wide open. At the end of the day we really like this spot with the Oilers coming off back to back losses to pick up a big 2 points and grab a win. Oilers are 9-2 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Oilers are 6-2 in their last 8 road games. Flames are 5-12 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.

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The Miami Heat were a big disappointment earlier this season but they look to have straightened things out as they come into this game winners of 11 of their last 12. At closer glance though I don't think their recent run is as impressive as it looks as just 2 of those 11 wins came against teams with a winning record. In fact the Heat were actually favored to win 10 of those 12 games making their 11-1 record about what was expected. The Heat have only posted 3 wins out of their 22 victories that have been over a team above .500 this season. This is also a tough spot for Miami tonight as they not only played last evening but they also had to travel after that game to play this one this evening and they will face what should be a desperate Memphis Grizzlies squad.

On the other side of things the Memphis Grizzlies are from the much tougher Western Conference. The Grizzlies have done well against teams from the weaker Eastern Conference this year going 10-5 against them against the spread which includes a current 8-2 ATS run their last 10. One good indicator of an undervalued team is how well they have played in games that I call toss-up games (games with a small spread between -4 and +4) and the Grizzlies have been great in these games going 14-6 against the number this year. Memphis is in what feels like a must win spot in this one as they can't afford to fall further out of the Western Conference playoff picture. They have dropped 3 straight games coming into this one and 4 of their last 5 but two of those games were 1 point losses and the other was in their last game where they were in a very difficult spot playing the 2nd game of back to back nights on the road and facing a very good Phoenix Suns team that was coming off a bad loss.

Play Memphis in this game.

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I have St. Mary's winning this game by 10+ points here Wednesday as they are the superior overall team in the country. St. Mary's has definitely played much tougher opponents than Western Kentucky this season and I expect that to show in this game here Wednesday night. St. Mary's has allowed an average of 59.4 points per game over their last 5 games with opponents shooting 42.3% against them and Western Kentucky has shot just 40.3% as a team over their last 5 games averaging just 66 points per game. This is a Western Kentucky team that shot just 34% as a team against North Texas in that 4 point loss and turnovers have been a big problem for them this season which will definitely continue against this St. Mary's team. Play St Mary's ATS.

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As per my selection on Chelsea to win this game outright, this game sets up perfectly for them to do so as they hold the 1-0 lead on aggregate with the crucial goal being an away goal. Chelsea now return home where they are unbeaten in their last seven contests at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea, under Thomas Tuechel, has been a force, as they have not lost in 13 matches and the defense is a big reason why. They are conceding just 2.00 shots per game and we see the defensive aspect of the game being too much for Atletico Madrid to overcome. When Atletico Madrid win games, they usually do so by soaking up pressure and hitting on the counter-attack. However, Atletico needs to score a goal and will commit bodies forwards in hopes of progressing over at the very worst forcing extra time. Chelsea will be able to hit them on the counter-attack with their speed and talent and we see Chelsea netting two goals here in a very impressive win. This is a statement game for Chelsea and as they are the team in better form with a full list of players to choose from, the Blues will reign supreme here today.

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Tonight in the Moda Center the Portland Trailblazers look to bounce back after a tough road loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves and tonight the Blazers get back C.J. McCollum. I know the Pelicans have won some big games as of late but those games were at home and the last time we saw the Pelicans on the road they lost to the Spurs 117-114. The Blazers lost their last home game to the Suns 127-121 and tonight with McCollum back on the floor I don't see the Blazers losing back-to-back home games. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS last 10 road games and 1-5 ATS following a ATS win. The Blazers are 8-3 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record.

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When Utah was winning night-in, night-out, they were playing one of the softer schedules in the league. We mentioned on a Mad Dog radio show a couple weeks ago that life might get a little tougher on the Jazz with their strength of schedule getting tougher. The Jazz have lost five in a row ATS on the road against teams with a winning record. They've lost four of their last six games outright, including a 131-119 loss at Golden State on Sunday (we had the Warriors). The travel continues as they fly across the country for this one. The Celtics have been at their best as a home dog where they're on a 19-7 ATS run and they're aiming for their seventh straight cover at home against teams with a winning road record. Boston has kicked it up a notch on offense scoring more than their season average in four of its last six games. Boston has won five of their last six and they're catching a Utah team that is turning the ball over with frequency of late. I expect the Celtics to grab the win. I'm taking the points with Boston on Tuesday.

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This Boston Bruins team is a mess right now. They come into this game with lots of injuries and they have lost 9 of their last 13 games. The Bruins are rellly struggling to score ranking near the bottom of the league in goals scored this year. In each of their last five losses they have scored no more than 1 goal in the game.

On the other side of things Pittsburgh is red hot with 6 wins in a row and looking very impressive in those games as they outscored opponents by a 25-9 margin in those games. They have now scored 3 goals or more in 8 straight games overall. The Penguins have also been nearly unbeatable on their home ice this season going 12-2 overall in their 14 home games and last year the Penguins finished the season with their 2nd most home wins in the league.

Take Pittsburgh.

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Though the International Break starts next week, we expect Man City to field a less than first choice side this afternoon with an eye on the weekend’s FA Cup match up with Everton. They already hold a 2 goal lead over the German side from the first leg. City have been flying high of late, their only blemish is their 2-0 loss to Manchester United in their last 31 matches. Add in City’s last three wins were by 3 each, we see City’s offense having an off night against a struggling side. Borussia M’gladbach are winless in their last eight matches, losing six in a row. They come off a disappointing 3-1 loss at Augsburg over the weekend, though none of their seven losses have been by more than 2 goals. With Borussia on such a long winless run and City with a huge match on the weekend, we like for the German side to find some form in the second leg.

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Denver had won five in a row before losing to Dallas by 13 on Saturday night. I expect the Nuggets to get right back on track tonight. The Nuggets are one of the top offensive clubs in the league and the Pacers are bottom-third or close to it in several defensive categories I consider to be most important. They’ve allowed six of their last seven opponents to make more than 47% of their FGA and five of the last seven made half their shots or better. When the Nuggets’ strength met the Pacers’ weakness on March 4, it ended in a 113-103 Denver win and they nailed 58% of their FGA. They may not make 58% of their shots tonight but I expect Denver to win by a spread covering margin again. Indiana has covered just one of its last 10 as an underdog and Denver has paid-off well immediately after losing by double digits. I’m laying the points with the Nuggets on Monday.

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Liverpool have been in poor form, but snapped their five match home losing streak with a second consecutive 2-0 win over RB Leipzig in the Champions League midweek. Though the visitors are just 2-3-0 in their last five matches, they are 4-1-0 in their last five away matches overall. Liverpool's poor form is a direct result of their huge injury problems and now they are getting players back. For Wolves, they are winless in their three matches including a 4-1 loss at City. They did win their last home match, a 1-0 win over Leeds, but they are 2-2-1 in their last five matches. Liverpool have won the last four in a row over Wolves including a 2-1 win last season at Wolves. Liverpool are too talented for their poor run of form to continue.

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The Vegas Golden Knights will look for their third win in row when they take on the San Jose Sharks at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV on Monday night. Marc-Andre Fleury (14-5-0, 1.81 GAA, .935 save %) will be in goal for Vegas and he will be opposed by Devan Dubnyk (3-5-2, .03 GAA, .904 save %), who is scheduled to get the call between the pipes for the Sharks. Vegas has posted a perfect 4-0 record in their last four games following a game where they scored five goals or more and they have gone an excellent 6-1 in their last seven games following a win. They have also won 23 of their last 31 at home where they were listed as the favorite and they are an impressive 35-16 in their last 51 home games overall. The Sharks, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here tonight as they are just 3-7 in their last ten where they faced a team with a winning record and they are an awful 5-11 in their last sixteen on the road where they were listed as the underdog. They have also lost 35 of their last 52 overall where they were the dog and they are just 2-9 in their last eleven games following a win. Throw in the fact that the Golden Knights are a perfect 4-0 in their last four head to head meetings with the Sharks, outscoring them 12-5 in their three wins this season and we're going to lay the 1.5 goals with them here to get what we have as a fairly win in Vegas on Monday night.

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Most forget this Indiana Pacers team was the 5th best team defense last year in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have dropped down to 10th best overall this season but this is nearly the same exact roster as last season so they have the talent to be a better defensive team going forward. The Pacers should improve on that end of the floor with Caris LeVert now playing. LeVert played in his first game this season for Indiana in the Pacers last game and he's a guy who stands 6 foot 6 tall but has a long 6 foot 10 wingspan. He's a much better defender than Doug McDermott, the guy he took over for in their Pacers starting lineup. LeVert is also a solid offensive player but that part of his game may take a bit to come back as evident by his 5 for 14 shooting performance (0 for 4 from three point range) in his Indiana debut.

The Denver Nuggets had been without one of their better defensive players for a month in Paul Millsap. He missed 10 straight games for the Nuggets but returned back to action in the first two games after the All-Star break and both of those games he's played in went below the posted total. These two teams faced each other in their last game before the All-Star break and that game easily stayed 'under' the total even with all the late game fouling and free throws that helped produce 13 points the last minute of the game. Keep in mind the Nuggets were without Millsap and LeVert didn't play for the Pacers either in that contest.

This total is too high. Play the 'under'.

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Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Los Angeles Clippers hit the road to take on the Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA on Sunday night. The Clippers have posted a 7-2 record to the over in their last seven road games where they were listed as the favorite and they have gone an excellent 11-4-1 to the over in their last fifteen overall where they were laying points. They have also gone up and over the number in five of their last seven following a straight up win by ten points or more and they are 12-5 to the over off a game where they scored 100 points or more. The Pelicans have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone 7-1 to the over in their last eight at home where they were listed as the underdog and they are a perfect 8-0 to the over at home when facing a team with a winning record on the road. They have also gone over the total in 17 of their last 21 home games overall and they are 28-10 to the over in their last 38 following a straight up win. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five head to head meetings and that's where we'll have our play as we think both teams try and push the pace a bit in New Orleans on Sunday night.

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Dallas will have immediate revenge on its mind after losing 4-3 in OT last night to Columbus. The Stars controlled the ice, finishing with 29 SOG to 22 for Columbus in regulation and they were the more physical team. Sometimes, you lose despite being the better team on the ice. While I expect Anton Khudobin to be between the pipes for Dallas (rested last night) we will own the goaltending advantage whether it's their top netminder or Jake Oettinger, who before last night was playing extremely well as Khudobin's backup. Dallas has out-shot the Jackets in all meetings this season and last time they met in a two-game set, the Stars won the second game, 5-0 after losing the first two days prior. I expect a similar result here. I'm backing the Dallas Stars on Sunday.

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T-Mobile Arena will be ready for this Interstate rival game between the Oregon St Beavers and the Oregon Ducks. Last week the Ducks played the Beavers on the road and had no problem beating them winning 80-67 and that total flew 'Over'. The Beavers last night upset the UCLA Bruins 83-79 in overtime and the Beavers have been trending 'Over' games cashing 4-Straight 'Over' tickets. The Oregon Ducks yesterday had no problem beating Arizona St 91-73 and that total flew 'Over'. The Ducks last 6 games all 6 of them went 'Over' the total and the Ducks are averaging 79.6ppg in those 6 games. Oregon St is 12-2 O/U as an underdog on a neutral site game and the Beavers are 6-2 O/U following a SU win. Oregon is 5-0 O/U following a SU win and the Ducks are 6-0-1 O/U when playing on a neutral site game.

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