Topic: Germany League - 2nd Bundesliga Prediction Thread - page 65. (Read 16189 times)

Yea, it looks like the league is going for a dramatic finish 
Darmstadt is now in a pretty good position. Of course they shouldn't mess it up like Bremen did yesterday, but they could now even surpass Bremen by winning the last 3 games.
And Hamburg: as written on the last page, they absolutely need to win all 3 remaining games, otherwise they won't be able to reach the 3rd rank. Today in Ingolstadt they are likely to win, but we have seen many "easy" games in the past where Hamburg managed to "not win" somehow.
Nürnberg is probably out of the race now after their draw yesterday. Only if both, Hamburg and Darmstadt, somehow manage to lose today they would still have a small chance for the 3rd rank.

Im shocked that Werder Bremen was able to drop all 3 points with 2 own goals. If they dont get promoted these two own goals will definetly remind them hard. Hamburger and Darmstadt now have an amazing chance to get into better positions to get promoted. Really becoming intresting now

And once again the teams make it exciting. That is how I like it.
St. Pauli concede a goal in extra time and draw. Werder Bremen brings Kiel back into the game with 2 own goals. And Schalke only manages to win by a goal in extra time. It seems that the teams are quite nervous.
Tomorrow Darmstadt and Hamburger SV have to win to keep their chances.

4 teams currently have stiff competition to get promotion next season, schalke who were previously below the top 4 they are slowly able to grab the top of the standings, while ST Pauli who is quite consistent at the top of the standings at the beginning and mid-season starts to run out of fuel when the match only a few games left now, the large number of points lost in the last few games makes ST Pauli now have to be in 4th place and I think their chances of promotion are likely to be very difficult this season, I personally believe that schalke and Bremen will soon lock their promotion tickets , while Darmstad may be lucky enough to get a place in the Bundesliga next season through the play-off.

That's how quickly things turn around again. Schalke top of the table, Bremen second and if Darmstadt wins tomorrow against Erzgebirge Aue (17th place), then Bremen is on 3rd place. So on the 33rd matchday of the season, i think one Team are fixed for the first Bundesliga. That will probably Schalke, but they have a difficult game against St. Pauli.

I don't watch the second Bunesliga that regurlarly but today i tuned in to the conference because the race for the places that qualify for the first Bundesliga is so close this year and i was certainly not disappointed. Werder Bremen already looked like the clear and uncontested winner today and then everything went wrong for them and they still lost in the end. The total opposite of emotions were to be seen in the match of Sandhausen vs. Schalke. After Sandhause have scored a very late equalizer Schalke still managed to win the game with a goal way into the overtime.
Bremen also still has it in their own hands though, they just need to win the last 2 games and they will go back to the first Bundesliga.

no one would have thought that werder bremen after a quick 2-0 lead still loses the game at home against holstein kiel with 2-3...
tomorrow darmstadt 98 can pass with a win at home against aue to werder on the third place

the first games are over now. and there is a surprise after all. holstein kiel wins in bremen. i personally didn't expect that.
st. pauli plays for a draw against nuremberg .
schalke won the game in sandhauen. if hamburg wins in golstadt tomorrow, it will be really exciting at the end of the season.




Quelle:https://sportdaten.n-tv.de/fussball/2-bundesliga/spiele-und-ergebnisse/      

I see it mostly like you do. Hamburger SV unfortunately did not win some important games in the last weeks, although they should have won them. Now they woke up too late and it will be very difficult for them to reach place 3. But even if they will reach place 3 they still have to play 2 games in the relegation.

I think the race is yet open for Hamburg and in a hypothetical scenario they can get those 9 points, but in a realistic situation I kinda feel that they’ll miss out and get either 3 or max 6 points. Furthermore I don’t expect Schalke to drop their guard now, but the beauty of this league is that no team in unbeatable hence I believe that we’ll have to keep on speculating till the very end.

I think Hamburg will win against Ingolstadt and Hannover. The last game in Rostock is probably the hardest. Let's asume they win all 3 games and then have 60 points with around +30 goals. Their advantage is actually the goal difference, all the other teams have worse differences except maybe Schalke (but even that is unlikely as we assume Hamburg wins all 3 remaining games)

Hamburg has to climb 2 ranks to be 3rd.

It is very unlikely that they can surpass Bremen. Bremen only needs 4 more points against fairly easy opponents.

Schalke needs 5 points to be unreachable (>=61 points). So 2 wins or 1 win/2 draws. Schalke has fairly difficult games, but 2 wins are definitely possible. I think it is unlikely that Hamburg can surpass Schalke.

Now Darmstadt, Darmstadt has 3 fairly easy games, but they already need 7 points to be safe from Hamburg, which is 2 wins/1 draw or 3 wins. It also seems rather unlikely that Hamburg can make it here.

St.Pauli is only 2 points in front of Hamburg and they have 2 difficult games ahead. Hamburg can already pass them next week should they not win against Nürnberg. St. Pauli actually needs 3 wind out of the 3 games to safely stay ahead of Hamburg due to the worse goal difference.

So in essence (TLDR ): Assuming Hamburg wins all 3 games, they still need to hope for a screw-up of either Schalke or Darmstadt (or both). I would think that this is pretty much a 50-50 situation then, so if Hamburg wins all 3 games, I would see them with 50% at rank 3 or better

now a question ! what do you think ? will hamburger sv get 9 points in the last 3 games ?
hsv has to play ingolstadt next weekend,then against hannover and the last game will be in rostock
It would be possible for hsv to win all three games.then hsv would have exactly 60 points ? whether that would be enough for 3rd place ?

I just saw the odds for the games on Friday:

St.Pauli vs Nürnberg 1.85/3.8/3.9 - I think these aren't bad odds for betting on a win for Nürnberg or maybe for sth like "St.Pauli doesn't win". Both teams struggled a bit lately, but Nürnberg also had harder opponents and showed some good games against those.
Sandhausen vs Schalke 4.2/3.7/1.8 - as discussed previously - Sandhausen showed good performances lately. Now they are practically safe from the relegation, but on the other hand Schalke needs the points. I think these are good odds for a Schalke win.

(all other games with top teams are pretty much one sided, no interesting odds there imho)

At St. Pauli, some important players in the defence were injured at the beginning of this year. The substitutes actually did a good job, but also made some mistakes.
The current problem is that some important players have already signed for other teams. That is not good for the morale in the team. And also disappointing for the fans.

In the second Bundesliga, the defense of most teams is very weak. However, Pauli's defense has become weaker in the last few matches, more importantly, their forwards have not been able to play well. Pauli has managed to score only 4 goals in the last 5 matches. If they want to get back to the top of the table, strikers must play better. It is difficult to win if the forward is not strong.

Because in this second Bundesliga there is no team that can be consistent for a long time and also, at least their quality is evenly matched so it's no wonder the competition is more competitive. It's interesting indeed, because there are only 3 matches left but no team can be confirmed for positions 1,2 and 3, the points acquisition which is only one and two points different, of course, makes them even more depressed. But it looks like Schalke are under more pressure, as the next two opponents like St. Pauli and Nurnberg cannot be said to be easy for Schalke. St. Pauli who still has a chance for third place, then of course they will continue to fight hard for it.

The second Bundesliga has become more competitive than the first Bundesliga. No matter how the teams perform each season, we see Bayern Munich as the champions. But the top spot in the second Bundesliga has changed several times this season. We have seen Pauli at the top of the table since the start of the season. Even a few days ago Schalke was at the top of the table. But now at the top of the table is Werder Bremen. Maybe in the next few weeks we'll see a change in the points table again.

Only Schalke still has to play against Sandhausen. So Sandhausen can only influence the fight for promotion once more. But Schalke have to play against St. Pauli and then against Nürnberg. Thosegames will not be easy.

Werder Bremen have to play first against Kiel and then against Aue. That could be almost the last chance for Aue to still reach place 16. And could therefore not easy for Bremen.

Sandhausen surprises lately, they are a team that should not be underestimated. Next week they play against Schalke and could topple the next favorite.

Schalke has 3 hard games coming up and it's difficult to say where they are now after their loss against Bremen. Bremen and Darmstadt should be able to win their next games quite safely. St.Pauli vs Nürnberg will be an open fight.

All what missing is St. Pauli and Hamburger SV and the northern part of Germany would be completely back in the first Bundesliga.

But I am more worried about St. Pauli. The offensive is weakening. Last year they often decided games in the first half and scored 37 goals in the first half od the season. In this second half of the season they Pauli have conceded more goals than in the entire first. So in defence it does not work well anymore either.