Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate. Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down
Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.
At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.
Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.
But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.
The best estimates have difficulty @ ~65-70 mil by the end of July (roughly 3 months). If the chips do arrive in 10 weeks, and you've managed to get fab and testing done and it only takes you 2 weeks for assembly and shipping then starting your estimates from there isn't horrible.
If a batch costs 50/50 chips to board, you're looking at
BTC1560 initial outlay (minus support gear, ie host, power supplies, etc). If it's as efficient as Avalons you're lookin @ about 28.2 kw/h to operate.
Assuming a 25% Network Hashrate Increase per difficulty, with electric costing you $.115 you're looking at about a 7 months for complete BTC principal repayment, not including cost of electricity ($13,664). If you were to count electricity, you would be $8,402 short when after 8.4 months difficulty became so high you paid more for electricity per time period than you received in coin (assuming $105 exchange rate).
Something to note however, Give the above is accurate:
the network hashrate would be 19,317TH/s (27,895% increase from what it is now)
Difficulty would be 2,698,676,748 (26,103% increase from what it is now)
So the question is, do you think 19,247TH/s worth of gear is going to be deployed between now and Jan '14?
*Disclaimer: I purchased a batch of chips.