According to the spreadsheet, we're over 50% of the way there counting commitments (not paid funds). I think the most important part is going to be the next 30% and the last 20% will be filled with people looking for a group that is about to close their round.
I think we need to keep this on the front page by posting periodically (before I had added this thread to my watchlist it took me 15 minutes to find it at one point) and I think we need a little patience as the recent volatility may have changed people's ROI assumptions. With any luck we can have the order filled this week.
Raging/Tom: Perhaps you might also want to keep your eyes on other group buys that are being organized- we may want to consider merging groups to allow for a faster order? I think we can all agree that time is of the essence.
Just my two cents-
Kong
Topic: [Group Buy#2] Avalon ASICs CHIPS! 1 chip = .078BTC = 282Mhash! - page 4. (Read 20845 times)
I agree with you wrenchmonkey. How many orders we have now ragingazn628? How many chips left?
I think we need to set a deadline for sticking a fork in this thing. No serious movement in several days. If this thing takes much longer, we're gonna be so far back in the order queue, we'll never get our chips before Christmas. 
What do you guys think? Give it another week or two?
What do you guys think? Give it another week or two?
Gonna be bringing my total over 200 very soon. Hopefully will spark a surge to get us over the top.
Sent another 2 BTC earlier today, bringing my total to 5.44 BTC... will probably be throwing in some more over the next few days. Thanks for organizing this ragingazn!
Let's keep this moving- we should be able to wrap this up this very soon. Everyone in the group so far- make sure to post periodically to keep this topic on the front page of the forum section.
People considering an Asic purchase: This is your group- Tom is already proven and his fees are better than the other groups out there.
People considering an Asic purchase: This is your group- Tom is already proven and his fees are better than the other groups out there.
ragingazn628 wanted me to confirm here that he provided a full refund at my request. The estimation of roi and time were just not computing very favorable for the level I was investing with only 60 chips.
Thanks for confirming <3
ragingazn628 wanted me to confirm here that he provided a full refund at my request. The estimation of roi and time were just not computing very favorable for the level I was investing with only 60 chips.
Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0
That would be one AWESOME rig to have.
I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0
That would be one AWESOME rig to have.
I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.
Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate. Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down
Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.
At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.
Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.
But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.
Instead of "at current difficulty" you might as well say "In fantasy land"
Of course. I wasn't using this as a suggested jumping off point for investors. I was merely stating a fun fact. Don't read too much into it, guys...
do you have a source for those ~70 Million difficulty at the end of july quotes?
Why yes, yes I do
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/04/914-asic-earnings-23-april-2013.html
Organofcorti is a highly reputable member of the community who has been posting statistics about the network and charts on hash rates for a long long time. You can find his thread here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/weekly-pool-and-network-statistics-77000
He's very helpful (helped me solve a spreadsheet issue just yesterday) and knows his stuff.
If you get anything from his work, I suggest tipping him, as he provides this valuable service free of charge. His address can be found in his signature. (I'm not going to post it, and you should never send coin to an unconfirmed address)
I really like your style ecliptic. I'm very happy new members are taking the time to intelligently question things instead of spamming,scamming,and blindly throwing away money
Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0
That would be one AWESOME rig to have.
I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0
That would be one AWESOME rig to have.
I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.
Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate. Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down
Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.
At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.
Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.
But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.
The best estimates have difficulty @ ~65-70 mil by the end of July (roughly 3 months). If the chips do arrive in 10 weeks, and you've managed to get fab and testing done and it only takes you 2 weeks for assembly and shipping then starting your estimates from there isn't horrible.
If a batch costs 50/50 chips to board, you're looking at BTC1560 initial outlay (minus support gear, ie host, power supplies, etc). If it's as efficient as Avalons you're lookin @ about 28.2 kw/h to operate.
Assuming a 25% Network Hashrate Increase per difficulty, with electric costing you $.115 you're looking at about a 7 months for complete BTC principal repayment, not including cost of electricity ($13,664). If you were to count electricity, you would be $8,402 short when after 8.4 months difficulty became so high you paid more for electricity per time period than you received in coin (assuming $105 exchange rate).
Something to note however, Give the above is accurate:
the network hashrate would be 19,317TH/s (27,895% increase from what it is now)
Difficulty would be 2,698,676,748 (26,103% increase from what it is now)
So the question is, do you think 19,247TH/s worth of gear is going to be deployed between now and Jan '14?
*Disclaimer: I purchased a batch of chips.
do you have a source for those ~70 Million difficulty at the end of july quotes?
Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0
That would be one AWESOME rig to have.
I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0
That would be one AWESOME rig to have.
I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.
Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate. Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down
Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.
At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.
Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.
But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.
The best estimates have difficulty @ ~65-70 mil by the end of July (roughly 3 months). If the chips do arrive in 10 weeks, and you've managed to get fab and testing done and it only takes you 2 weeks for assembly and shipping then starting your estimates from there isn't horrible.
If a batch costs 50/50 chips to board, you're looking at BTC1560 initial outlay (minus support gear, ie host, power supplies, etc). If it's as efficient as Avalons you're lookin @ about 28.2 kw/h to operate.
Assuming a 25% Network Hashrate Increase per difficulty, with electric costing you $.115 you're looking at about a 7 months for complete BTC principal repayment, not including cost of electricity ($13,664). If you were to count electricity, you would be $8,402 short when after 8.4 months difficulty became so high you paid more for electricity per time period than you received in coin (assuming $105 exchange rate).
Something to note however, Give the above is accurate:
the network hashrate would be 19,317TH/s (27,895% increase from what it is now)
Difficulty would be 2,698,676,748 (26,103% increase from what it is now)
So the question is, do you think 19,247TH/s worth of gear is going to be deployed between now and Jan '14?
*Disclaimer: I purchased a batch of chips.
Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0
That would be one AWESOME rig to have.
I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0
That would be one AWESOME rig to have.
I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.
Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate. Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down
Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.
At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.
Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.
But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.
Instead of "at current difficulty" you might as well say "In fantasy land"
I would order chips if there was an actual board that they came with, or someone could assemble. I realize that someone is going to make them, but what is the cost going to be, the number of chips it will support, and various other requirements? I'm also not sure I trust someone who gets thousands of chips to put on boards to get them done in a timely manner. It seems like the chips would be cool to get but there are a lot of unknowns at the moment.
Ragingazn, how's the PCB design coming?
What spreadsheet are you referring to? I'm seeing only 23.5% of the total.
Please post the link that you're referring to. Am I looking at the wrong one?
Please post the link that you're referring to. Am I looking at the wrong one?
I'm looking at the one on the front page of this thread. I eyeballed 327 btc including committed but not paid and what I just sent. I assume that as we get closer to closing the full amount that either 1) commitments are followed through or 2) last minute stragglers take up the slack.
I'm in!
Sent 32.844 BTC for 400 chips.
Sent 32.844 BTC for 400 chips.
confirmed thanks!
What spreadsheet are you referring to? I'm seeing only 23.5% of the total.
Please post the link that you're referring to. Am I looking at the wrong one?
Please post the link that you're referring to. Am I looking at the wrong one?
Spreadsheet indicates we're about 40% there. We need to get the word out and lock this up fast!
Nice! That's that's 144G/Hash! at about 1250watts. At current difficulty, it'd make you $28,269.58/month, before electricity costs (about $150 in energy cost).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0
That would be one AWESOME rig to have.
I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aoe35iPRQzfodExmdE5DdHo2OWo4YVUtUHZpNEg5X0E#gid=0
That would be one AWESOME rig to have.
I'm just gonna have a puny 120-chip rig to start, assuming this second buy actually funds. 85 if it doesn't.
Avalon's confirmed orders of chips ALONE are going to quadruple the network hashrate. Add in the other ASICs, difficulty will be between 6x and 10x+ higher, and prices seem to be dropping down
Yes, understood. That's why I specified "at current difficulty" I did forget to change the exchange rate to current exchange though.
At any rate, I think anybody who has seriously run the numbers with the intent of buying these chips knows that we're looking at a difficulty of 40-80million by the time we all get up and running.
Even so, if you presume a difficulty of 80Million, and an exchange rate of $90/BTC, 500 chips still generates $2500/month. I'm guessing that both those numbers are on the upper end of 'bad-case' scenario, and we're probabaly more likely to jump in at about 40Million when these things start coming online, which should give a window to recover initial investment costs relatively quickly.
But time is of the essence. Realistically, if we don't fund this thing by this time next week, we're DOA. So hope for some more big investors, or that BTC temporarily drops to $10, and I'll be in for 48BTC per day until it funds.
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