Welcome back, Matthew.
You fucked up big time and you seem to regret it. That's a good thing.
You even want to make good on your "obligations". However, I'm not sure what these are:
I never took your bet seriously myself (otherwise I would've bet at some point when I was sure pirate would run and your bet miraculously was still open). First I was of the impression you really thought pirate would pay, but I was also pretty sure you wouldn't have 10 kBTC, let alone 80 kBTC.
I'm guessing most of the people who "took" your bet had similar thoughts (that the bet was a joke and/or you had gone berserker insane and wouldn't pay either way). Whoever seriously counted on you paying up and thought they had thereby effectively "hedged" their pirate loss was dilusional.
We can put the people that took your bet into 2 categories:
- d) delusional: those who took you seriously and thought they could get out of their pirate fuckup this way
- c) clowns or profiteer: those who took your bet for fun and never planned to pay in case they lost
group c) you really owe nothing and I'm not sure about group d): they had made the initial mistake of investing in pirate and had only themselves to blame for that. This was becoming clearer to them every day. Then you seemingly came to the rescue (like a fata morgana of water in the desert) and they thought themselves saved. Now they blame the fata morgana for disappearing? I'm not sure this works. (I know this analogy is wrong.. a hyperbole)
As for the damage you inflicted: your bet might've enabled pirate to keep things going a little longer (I don't know) and some more money was sent his way than would've been otherwise. It's hard to do this, but if I had to put a number, I would say your "obligations" are around 1% of the total bet amount.
As for "distributing" possible compensation: I think you can only do it evenly by bet amount since you don't know who belongs to which group and assessing the harm you did individually is highly error-prone and will likely wear you out.
I'm just thinking out loud here and might change my mind upon discussion, but that's the way I see things currently.
Any ideas how high Matthews obligations really are?