Illusion of control - page 11. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Yucky

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Quote from: JoyMarsha on October 09, 2024, 06:36:12 AM

Even though someone has a pattern of throwing their dice to be soft or hard, it will still show the number that falls in after they must have thrown the dice. Then will the person know the lucky number they have gotten.

It's a weird thought for anyone to think of having control of each bet they make. Nobody can't control what they don't know the outcome to be; rather, they expect the luck of gambling to be shown to them for their bets win, not by their might. If it's by some people's willpower or control of gambling, I don't think there will be many gamblers who would take gambling as luck-based stuff.

Exactly, something you don't know the outcome - no one can predict the future. No one can time travel, so if you don't have the ability to know what will happen in the future, how can you then predict the outcome of a game. That's exactly why the gambling industry is still thriving. If every gambler could predict game outcomes, then we will just be cashing out big every weekend. You come predict, win, you stake the big odds, you win because you can predict it.

But here, gamblers are trying to engage in responsible gambling, stake on low odds, so they can win little profit that will come together as big profit. People only stake high odds, they know they can lose the money. People cash out before the final game is up. Do you get? All these strategies will not be used by gamblers if we can predict the future.

Anybody that keeps winning, maybe low-odd games or getting high numbers with dice rolling, is lucky. You won't tell me there is a pattern, you throw it, or there is an angle you throw it to, that makes it roll in your favor. So I totally agree with you, you can't predict the outcome of something you don't know. So it's just a little bit fictional to say you can predict the outcome of games or dice roll.

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Quote from: JoyMarsha on October 09, 2024, 06:36:12 AM

It's a weird thought for anyone to think of having control of each bet they make. Someone can't control what they don't know the outcome to be, rather they expect luck of gambling to shown on them in their bets win, not by their might

You are right; the outcome cannot be controlled. However, I feel that chance plays a role, which is why a gambler feels he can control the outcome of the game. Out of 20 bad chances, there will be one which will lead to the belief that the outcome can be controlled. I am certain that many of us would agree that when playing a game of dice, we need to keep count. I have myself seen how effective it can be when you know you will win after a certain number of counts. The problem is that we do not know where to stop and when to stop as we tend to get overconfident after a certain period.

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Even though someone has a pattern of throwing their dice to be soft or hard, it will still show the number that falls in after they must have thrown the dice. Then will the person know the lucky number they have gotten.

It's a weird thought for anyone to think of having control of each bet they make. Nobody can't control what they don't know the outcome to be; rather, they expect the luck of gambling to be shown to them for their bets win, not by their might. If it's by some people's willpower or control of gambling, I don't think there will be many gamblers who would take gambling as luck-based stuff.

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Quote from: Findingnemo on October 07, 2024, 12:30:02 PM

It's just another phenomenon that gamblers often assumes that they have some control over the outcome of their bets especially if they have been doing it for a while even though every time is just purely random there's no skill involved. Take dice for an example we might assume that we can control and influence the result of it by throwing softer or harder or in anyway that our brain recognize a pattern and keep tells us it's a way to win the game. So let's discuss about it.

Here’s the issue: we believe we can control outcomes because we've tried and succeeded in the past. But the question is, if that’s true, why hasn’t a single player truly made a big win and become rich? This shows us that no one, not even the owner, can control these things. So, this belief is just speculation with no solid basis. Of course, we can have this trick, but we shouldn't expect to win all the time—because that kind of consistent success in gambling is just impossible! We can't argue the fact that whatever we do and tricks applied, none of them can ensure winning.

iv4n

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Quote from: Findingnemo on October 07, 2024, 12:30:02 PM

It's just another phenomenon that gamblers often assumes that they have some control over the outcome of their bets especially if they have been doing it for a while even though every time is just purely random there's no skill involved. Take dice for an example we might assume that we can control and influence the result of it by throwing softer or harder or in anyway that our brain recognize a pattern and keep tells us it's a way to win the game. So let's discuss about it.

If someone really thinks they can control the outcome of a bet, then that person is living in an illusion.

We play "softer & harder" depending on the game and mood, and when doing that we hope it's a way to win something nice... it's gambling, sometimes we will win like that and sometimes we will lose. But for sure there is a moment we all experience, something like "we will hit something now" when we place a bet.

Basically, there is no control over gambling except our own control of our bankrolls and the bets we place. There's nothing wrong with believing and hoping for a nice win, but expecting too much from gambling leads to many wrong decisions. I think many people lost a bunch of money just because they thought "It's their turn to win big", and like that until they bust their balance and a few more deposits.

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Quote from: Baofeng on October 07, 2024, 04:49:56 PM

That's what we call, Gambler's fallacy. Gamblers thought that there is a pattern that we, or we assume that we can see a pattern and so we are going to bet for example in baccarat game that Banker are going to win because it hit previously.

But we all know that in gambling, we are betting on the unknown, we don't know what will be the next flip on the card or what will be the number count in a dice in the next throw. And so we thought that gambling is not random, and that there is a pattern, but it truth, past outcomes will not dictate future outcomes.

That is a good belief to try in my opinion even though gambling is pure luck some are testing if there are some tricks and turn around in playing-based gambling and some confess that there are and they are lucky trying it but there are no given possibilities that it does, for me it is a coincidence I think that they are using some picking on who's winning but the one that is picking was the gambling app itself, we can surely speculate all we want but playing gambling myself there is surely a trick to it but in the next day trying that trick it all wash in the drain I am saying this is that there is a pattern to this but not every day it will work, for me just try your 1st game and if you are not comfortable with the result while using your method then stop and do not play but if it bear fruits and getting a win then continue with your pattern.

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Quote from: Findingnemo on October 07, 2024, 12:30:02 PM

It's just another phenomenon that gamblers often assumes that they have some control over the outcome of their bets especially if they have been doing it for a while even though every time is just purely random there's no skill involved. Take dice for an example we might assume that we can control and influence the result of it by throwing softer or harder or in anyway that our brain recognize a pattern and keep tells us it's a way to win the game. So let's discuss about it.

There is a so-called "gambler's fallacy" that is often thought of by gamblers as a winning factor, but in reality it is an illusion. Mathematicians know very well that the outcome of a certain event does not depend on the outcomes up to that moment. That is, if you have rolled all the numbers except 6 on the dice, it does not mean at all that you are now likely to roll a six. This is strange, and I am sure that it would surprise many, but this is how probability theory actually works.

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Quote from: Cryptmuster on October 09, 2024, 03:41:32 AM

Why try to find patterns in random outcomes, a pattern will only appear on a very large number of repetitions, and even then I think it is possible for such outcomes as black and red, or heads or tails, but in this case, where any of the six equal sides can fall out, it seems almost impossible. In any game where a random choice decides, it is too difficult to win, so I do not like games in which I do not decide anything, but completely depend on chance or luck.

Luck-based games are the most fun when it comes to gambling, while skill-based ones just add to our stress. So if you're playing just to enjoy, stick with luck-based games. But if you're aiming for something serious, like making a living in the future, then go for skill-based ones like poker or sports betting. These days, most games are online, and honestly, when you're playing against a casino, your chances of winning in the long run are slim.

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Quote from: nullama on October 09, 2024, 01:45:00 AM

Quote from: Blowon on October 08, 2024, 03:31:02 PM

lol, op is very right sometimes we are too crazy doing useless things when we start betting, starting from crazy and stupid expressions as if we can determine the final result, but everything has been randomized by the casino system, but I think that is the art of betting and that is what makes us addicted

Yeah, and also a lot of people have a lot of superstitions in regards to gambling, so I am sure many think they are way ahead when in reality they are losing money overall.

Our mind always tricks us in believing whatever we want to believe, and the casinos take advantage of this.

In the end it is just random things, and the odds are against the gambler... easy to predict what will happen.

Actually there's no scientific basis towards everything they belief since over all everything is random when you come up betting. So whatever superstitious thing you do or anything positive come up in your mind the result will always come up in random form.

Its human nature to believe those crazy thoughts and dream something especially if they really look forward to gain big.

But totally not against it since if that's what make them enjoy what they are doing then everything is fine as long as they know the consequences of the actions they do.

But story is really different when they hope for something like they became so rich and don't follow certain advice that somehow helpful to them.

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Quote from: Findingnemo on October 07, 2024, 12:30:02 PM

It's just another phenomenon that gamblers often assumes that they have some control over the outcome of their bets especially if they have been doing it for a while even though every time is just purely random there's no skill involved. Take dice for an example we might assume that we can control and influence the result of it by throwing softer or harder or in anyway that our brain recognize a pattern and keep tells us it's a way to win the game. So let's discuss about it.

Why try to find patterns in random outcomes, a pattern will only appear on a very large number of repetitions, and even then I think it is possible for such outcomes as black and red, or heads or tails, but in this case, where any of the six equal sides can fall out, it seems almost impossible. In any game where a random choice decides, it is too difficult to win, so I do not like games in which I do not decide anything, but completely depend on chance or luck.

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Quote from: Accardo on October 08, 2024, 03:35:48 AM

Quote from: Slow death on October 08, 2024, 03:11:03 AM

Quote from: Findingnemo on October 07, 2024, 12:30:02 PM

It's just another phenomenon that gamblers often assumes that they have some control over the outcome of their bets especially if they have been doing it for a while even though every time is just purely random there's no skill involved. Take dice for an example we might assume that we can control and influence the result of it by throwing softer or harder or in anyway that our brain recognize a pattern and keep tells us it's a way to win the game. So let's discuss about it.

When playing dice, people have no control over anything. When playing a card game or betting on sports, people have control over the game if they only have great skill. For example, if a person decides to play a slot machine, that person puts money in the machine and presses the button and waits for the result. That person has no control over anything. There is no strategy that that person can use to change the result. But when a person is playing a card game or betting on sports, that person has time to analyze the games and create a strategy that allows him to win. So in my opinion, games of chance that do not depend on luck allow people to be in control.

Of course, to some extent, but it could vary from the idea of Op, he is mainly referring to players who think they can control no skill games due to their experience and the period of time they've spent on the game. Which is common amongst slot players. A times when playing roulettes I imagine my next prediction to fall on red, but it ends up being false.

Perhaps such thoughts is what retains most players to continue losing in slots, because nobody would want to stay with what they can't control. Hence, the illusion of control created within the player drives him to assume that the results are dependent on his decision. Though risky, but most players prefer being in that mode than accepting the truth that they can't manipulate any results in slots.

When I started gambling, I remember that in my first game in which I bet, I was happy and very confident that in the next game I would also win, but I lost and became unmotivated, then I lost again and had sequences of losses that I gave up betting, but since I had no way to withdraw because the amount was small, and there was a free bet, so I made my last bets and was lucky to win and recover everything I had lost. But then I stopped betting for some time and when I started betting again I made a rule: I do not show feelings when I bet. I am telling this story because here in my country I have seen very sad cases, people become very confident and convinced that they have control when they are playing aviator and even take out loans of a lot of money to play, but when they lose everything they commit suicide.

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Quote from: Baofeng on October 07, 2024, 04:49:56 PM

Quote from: Findingnemo on October 07, 2024, 12:30:02 PM

It's just another phenomenon that gamblers often assumes that they have some control over the outcome of their bets especially if they have been doing it for a while even though every time is just purely random there's no skill involved. Take dice for an example we might assume that we can control and influence the result of it by throwing softer or harder or in anyway that our brain recognize a pattern and keep tells us it's a way to win the game. So let's discuss about it.

That's what we call, Gambler's fallacy. Gamblers thought that there is a pattern that we, or we assume that we can see a pattern and so we are going to bet for example in baccarat game that Banker are going to win because it hit previously.

Gambler's fallacy is different, it's that gamblers believe that the previous set of results might impact the result of the upcoming event while this is the person believes that they can control the upcoming event's bet in their favor by assuming that they mastered the skill of playing the game even though in reality it just a coincidence that made them to believe in that way.

There are lot of posts that I want to reply but it's mot really interesting for anyone to see/read wall of text so I just leave it here and let you guys know about the existence of this misconception.

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Control luck? Or believe that you can control something that is pre-programmed? I don't think there can be any strategy... I attribute all such thoughts to the fact that people, even as adults, remain children. We believed in fairy tales as children, and I want to say that as adults we want to have foresight or intuition. But one day we will come down from our fantasies to reality and understand that there are accidents. But maybe not all of them are accidental; most will remain so.

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Quote from: Blowon on October 08, 2024, 03:31:02 PM

lol, op is very right sometimes we are too crazy doing useless things when we start betting, starting from crazy and stupid expressions as if we can determine the final result, but everything has been randomized by the casino system, but I think that is the art of betting and that is what makes us addicted

Yeah, and also a lot of people have a lot of superstitions in regards to gambling, so I am sure many think they are way ahead when in reality they are losing money overall.

Our mind always tricks us in believing whatever we want to believe, and the casinos take advantage of this.

In the end it is just random things, and the odds are against the gambler... easy to predict what will happen.

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Quote from: sompitonov on October 08, 2024, 04:40:42 AM

I think it helps a lot to understand the processes in gambling when we know a lot about how it works. For example, how a casino makes money, what are the features of each game, be it poker, betting or slots. For example, slots are not very interesting to me, because I don’t want to mindlessly press one button, I want to conduct at least a small analysis of the bets and apply mental effort, for me it’s interesting. I can’t understand those who bet on luck, it’s not interesting to me at all. Although I understand that all players are different and some just want to press a button and have cash fall at their feet.

Not many people wants to learn about the processes in gambling and how it works. People only want to makes money from gambling and will not stop even if they already make that. People know what gambling games they should play because they already have their favorite games.

The illusion of making money from gambling makes many people come back to casino and still trying. They will not understand that gambling is not a way to make money but they don't care about it. We only see that many people will get much problem from gambling but they will difficult to reach what they want from gambling.

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This seems to be the same when betting on sports betting, thinking that placing a bet when one team is ahead will give you a win, in fact there are still two possible chances of a draw or the team that is behind making a comeback, so it can be said that gambling is more often random, when what we think is right does not mean that we have managed to control it, there is no surefire strategy in gambling because on many occasions we can still lose.

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First of all your username Findingnemo is great frennn Grin

One of the best movies of all time haha. Ok back to the topic of Illusion of control.
This illusion does not just happen to gamblers but happens to trader and pretty much all speculators out there. We always think that everything is under our control personally this happen to me like on every trade my confidence fueled my body that the prices were going to up but in the end it didn't if feel like damn man but it is real.

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Quote from: Nwada001 on October 08, 2024, 04:56:19 PM

Quote from: ImThour on October 08, 2024, 06:17:29 AM

Isn't the chance of winning same as chance of losing, so I do not understand why there would be any sort of illusions. And if you are aware of your chances, you would never be under control of someone. Also, if you are a gambler and trying to find out a pattern which might be the most beneficial, you are just wrong. The chances of a trick/pattern to work is just as same as a monkey rolling the dice.

Winning and losing share the same chances, but it's still okay to think and look for a way to increase your chance of winning, like trying to figure out a pattern that will help you win.

What I see as abnormal is if someone starts thinking that the pattern they have discovered will help them beat the system there by giving them overconfidence to play without fear of losing, as such people always end up losing more than they plan to spend.

I doubt that the chances of winning and losing can be guaranteed to be the same, some people do think that the chances of winning and losing can be said to be 50/50, I think the chances of winning or losing are even greater for the players, because for the host of course they have the opposite chance of winning, namely a greater chance of winning. In addition, with patterns or strategies there are indeed and can increase our chances of winning, but not all games are based on patterns or others, some are purely dependent on luck.
However, in my opinion, it is unlikely to win, with those who think they can beat the system is very unlikely, if they can beat the system with the pattern they have, maybe they have become billionaires but I don't think anyone can do that. In addition, with those who have a pattern to be able to win according to their beliefs, it usually makes them confident, but the final result that will still happen is most likely just defeat.

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Quote from: Findingnemo on October 07, 2024, 12:30:02 PM

It's just another phenomenon that gamblers often assumes that they have some control over the outcome of their bets especially if they have been doing it for a while even though every time is just purely random there's no skill involved. Take dice for an example we might assume that we can control and influence the result of it by throwing softer or harder or in anyway that our brain recognize a pattern and keep tells us it's a way to win the game. So let's discuss about it.

This delusion has swept away too many gamblers especially those that call themselves professionals who have over a period of time been able to make some results for awhile so they believe they are now experts and to an extent by their skill can have some level of control over the outcome of their game but it later turns out they get disappointed at the end of the day because they aren't getting it just the way they had taught it would be turning out at the moment so its always not the ideal line of taught because even in dice you may make several throws and still end up not getting anything reasonable but someone who has got a single mild or hard throw without skill could still get good numbers and win unlike that which you had taught.

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Quote from: ImThour on October 08, 2024, 06:17:29 AM

Isn't the chance of winning same as chance of losing, so I do not understand why there would be any sort of illusions. And if you are aware of your chances, you would never be under control of someone. Also, if you are a gambler and trying to find out a pattern which might be the most beneficial, you are just wrong. The chances of a trick/pattern to work is just as same as a monkey rolling the dice.

Winning and losing share the same chances, but it's still okay to think and look for a way to increase your chance of winning, like trying to figure out a pattern that will help you win.

What I see as abnormal is if someone starts thinking that the pattern they have discovered will help them beat the system there by giving them overconfidence to play without fear of losing, as such people always end up losing more than they plan to spend.

Topic: Illusion of control - page 11. (Read 2751 times)