It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 22.

favebook

sr. member

Activity: 604

Merit: 416

Quote from: mikeywith on May 12, 2020, 11:20:43 PM

I had a little discussion with some guys on telegram, and someone pointed out something very interesting, a bit obvious but completely forgotten, many large scale miners mine on contacts, they pay the bill upfront, while the contract is still valid, they would mine on even at what we call a loss, because to them that is not exactly a"loss", and they can't avoid it anyway.

With that being said, it's safe to assume that a good portion of the low-efficiency miners are still on, this also explains why we don't see people flooding the market with those gears, everyone seems to be calm, nobody is rushing to sell anything, so it's either you are stuck in a contract or refusing to give up and hope that the others will leave and you become profitable, so things right now could be pointing to the fact that phill is right, without a huge spike in the price we will drop badly, but I don't think that will happen overnight anymore, it will be like walking down the stairs, farm x shuts down after tomorrow, farm y three days later and so on, the process might take a few weeks to get us to that 15-30% drop in hashrate.

THIS!

Also, do not forget that there is at least 10% or even more miners that do not even know what halving is and will notice their rewards drop only after a few days/weeks/months.

I wasn't expecting any diff drop for first epoch tbh. But in June, oh hell, we will fall off a cliff with diff, quote me on this.

mikeywith

legendary

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be constructive or S.T.F.U

I had a little discussion with some guys on telegram, and someone pointed out something very interesting, a bit obvious but completely forgotten, many large scale miners mine on contacts, they pay the bill upfront, while the contract is still valid, they would mine on even at what we call a loss, because to them that is not exactly a"loss", and they can't avoid it anyway.

With that being said, it's safe to assume that a good portion of the low-efficiency miners are still on, this also explains why we don't see people flooding the market with those gears, everyone seems to be calm, nobody is rushing to sell anything, so it's either you are stuck in a contract or refusing to give up and hope that the others will leave and you become profitable, so things right now could be pointing to the fact that phill is right, without a huge spike in the price we will drop badly, but I don't think that will happen overnight anymore, it will be like walking down the stairs, farm x shuts down after tomorrow, farm y three days later and so on, the process might take a few weeks to get us to that 15-30% drop in hashrate.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

okay lets say bitdeer has literally 30% of the hash.

if there is 120eh 30% is 36eh

if they add 6 eh

they jump the network 5%

and they then have

42/126 which is. 33% of the network.

so they lose as they went from

30% to 33% of coins a gain of 3 %

but the cost was jumping the diff 5%

I see a huge diff crash if coins dont jump up in price bigly.

maybe i am wrong never know.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: mikeywith on May 12, 2020, 07:55:17 PM

Where did you get this data from?

https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/630000
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/block/630040

My data was fresh after the halving and I was looking only at the last 40 blocks (that many were mined by that time)

Code:

630040 2020-05-12 03:08
630039 2020-05-12 03:01
630038 2020-05-12 03:00
630037 2020-05-12 02:51
630036 2020-05-12 02:36
630035 2020-05-12 02:23
630034 2020-05-12 02:12
630033 2020-05-12 02:11
630032 2020-05-12 02:04
630031 2020-05-12 02:02
630030 2020-05-12 01:57
630029 2020-05-12 01:44
630028 2020-05-12 00:57
630027 2020-05-12 00:46
630026 2020-05-12 00:20
630025 2020-05-12 00:04
630024 2020-05-12 00:00
630023 2020-05-11 23:55
630022 2020-05-11 23:41
630021 2020-05-11 23:24
630020 2020-05-11 23:07
630019 2020-05-11 22:49
630018 2020-05-11 22:45
630017 2020-05-11 22:20
630016 2020-05-11 22:19
630015 2020-05-11 22:14
630014 2020-05-11 22:11
630013 2020-05-11 21:49
630012 2020-05-11 21:38
630011 2020-05-11 21:38
630010 2020-05-11 21:21
630009 2020-05-11 21:09
630008 2020-05-11 21:09
630007 2020-05-11 21:08
630006 2020-05-11 21:06
630005 2020-05-11 20:47
630004 2020-05-11 20:37
630003 2020-05-11 20:30
630002 2020-05-11 20:30
630001 2020-05-11 20:02
630000 2020-05-11 19:23

Between 19:23 and 3:08 there are 7 hours 45 minutes, 465 mins/40 11.6/Block. Seems like I was right in being wrong, way too early to consider anything, and early enough to be totally wrong Grin

Quote from: mikeywith on May 12, 2020, 07:55:17 PM

in plain English, no drop in hashrate yet, which is freaking strange.

I checked the Chinese market to see if re-sellers are dropping gear prices and found out that nothing has changed,they seem to be selling well at pre-halving prices!, hashrate isn't going anywhere despite a whopping 50% reduction in rewards, which makes me think that someone with a lot of money and a very very good power deal is powering up a ton of mining gears so whatever hashrate leaves it gets replaced instantly and that's why we didn't fall off the cliff.

Indeed, you really can't explain this unless we touch a little bit of conspiracy theory, with somebody that keeps adding miners at exactly the right time. Since that hash rate isn't coming from BCH which was also pretty low and is growing also, somebody is plugging miners at an insane rate. Somebody who has ton of gear available and cheap electricity...Bitdeer?

Quote from: mikeywith on May 12, 2020, 07:55:17 PM

I think the rules of the mining game might be changed forever after this halving, those who have no access to pretty cheap power rate can no longer compete with the regular gears, what else can they do? pay $2000 for S19 to receive it 4 months later?

We can look at it as a mature business, tight margins, every cent counts, you need to cut expenses drastically, you're tied to low energy places, yeah, a lot like the shale gas industry, and the average Joe is ****. But the average Joe has an ace up his sleeve, average Joe is not alone, there are tens and hundreds of thousands of them, so if we return to mining as a hobby and doing this at a loss of a few $ per month the big fams are doomed. But that's wishful thinking, unfortunately.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

They are all in an overly optimistic la la land as buying gear at current prices only makes sense with free power.

If you have free power you can still buy s9's as they are cheap enough. 14 th with free power earns about 1 dollar a day. So in 90 days you have 90 bucks.

the s9 for under 100 with a power supply is easy to do now.

the t17+ is 950 or so and makes 4.30 a day so in 90 days you have 387 which is no where near 950

the s19pro in china is around 2300 it makes. 8.14 a day in 90 days it is 732. which does not touch 2300 or even 2000. and this is if you have free power.

buying gear at these prices is senseless even if you have free power.

BCH and BSV. are between 7.2 and 7.4 cents a th so they are not picking up the slack for BTC.

mikeywith

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be constructive or S.T.F.U

Quote from: stompix on May 11, 2020, 10:49:41 PM

Blocks after 630 000 have an average ~12 mins between them...

Where did you get this data from?

Below is the timestamps of blocks

526591 to 630172

Code:

2020-05-13 00:19
2020-05-13 00:06
2020-05-13 00:00
2020-05-12 23:55
2020-05-12 23:53
2020-05-12 23:45
2020-05-12 23:42
2020-05-12 23:41
2020-05-12 23:09
2020-05-12 22:52
2020-05-12 22:34
2020-05-12 22:19
2020-05-12 22:14
2020-05-12 22:13
2020-05-12 22:08
2020-05-12 21:39
2020-05-12 21:37
2020-05-12 21:24
2020-05-12 21:15
2020-05-12 21:14
2020-05-12 21:01
2020-05-12 20:59
2020-05-12 20:58
2020-05-12 20:53
2020-05-12 20:30
2020-05-12 20:22
2020-05-12 20:21
2020-05-12 20:03
2020-05-12 20:00
2020-05-12 19:59
2020-05-12 19:57
2020-05-12 19:57
2020-05-12 19:31
2020-05-12 19:28
2020-05-12 18:47
2020-05-12 18:34
2020-05-12 18:23
2020-05-12 18:08
2020-05-12 18:00
2020-05-12 17:28
2020-05-12 16:55
2020-05-12 16:45
2020-05-12 16:35
2020-05-12 16:25
2020-05-12 16:20
2020-05-12 16:16
2020-05-12 16:05
2020-05-12 15:57
2020-05-12 15:44
2020-05-12 15:22
2020-05-12 15:19
2020-05-12 15:15
2020-05-12 14:42
2020-05-12 14:09
2020-05-12 14:05
2020-05-12 14:02
2020-05-12 13:55
2020-05-12 13:39
2020-05-12 13:36
2020-05-12 13:27
2020-05-12 13:15
2020-05-12 13:14
2020-05-12 12:57
2020-05-12 12:49
2020-05-12 12:46
2020-05-12 12:45
2020-05-12 12:32
2020-05-12 12:24
2020-05-12 12:16
2020-05-12 12:15
2020-05-12 12:01
2020-05-12 11:55
2020-05-12 11:25
2020-05-12 11:24
2020-05-12 11:13
2020-05-12 11:07
2020-05-12 11:03
2020-05-12 10:53
2020-05-12 10:40
2020-05-12 10:33
2020-05-12 10:33
2020-05-12 10:30
2020-05-12 10:12
2020-05-12 09:58
2020-05-12 09:55
2020-05-12 09:17
2020-05-12 09:04
2020-05-12 08:47
2020-05-12 08:41
2020-05-12 08:39
2020-05-12 08:26
2020-05-12 08:12
2020-05-12 08:09
2020-05-12 08:07
2020-05-12 08:06
2020-05-12 07:57
2020-05-12 07:56
2020-05-12 07:34
2020-05-12 07:21
2020-05-12 07:11
2020-05-12 07:06
2020-05-12 06:24
2020-05-12 06:22
2020-05-12 06:14
2020-05-12 06:11
2020-05-12 05:59
2020-05-12 05:48
2020-05-12 05:47
2020-05-12 05:43
2020-05-12 05:36
2020-05-12 05:33
2020-05-12 05:32
2020-05-12 05:23
2020-05-12 05:23
2020-05-12 05:20
2020-05-12 05:14
2020-05-12 05:09
2020-05-12 05:03
2020-05-12 05:02
2020-05-12 04:59
2020-05-12 04:53
2020-05-12 04:31
2020-05-12 04:28
2020-05-12 04:18
2020-05-12 04:18
2020-05-12 04:04
2020-05-12 04:03
2020-05-12 03:57
2020-05-12 03:52
2020-05-12 03:42
2020-05-12 03:41
2020-05-12 03:08
2020-05-12 03:01
2020-05-12 03:00
2020-05-12 02:51
2020-05-12 02:36
2020-05-12 02:23
2020-05-12 02:12
2020-05-12 02:11
2020-05-12 02:04
2020-05-12 02:02
2020-05-12 01:57
2020-05-12 01:44
2020-05-12 00:57
2020-05-12 00:46
2020-05-12 00:20
2020-05-12 00:04
2020-05-12 00:00
2020-05-11 23:55
2020-05-11 23:41
2020-05-11 23:24
2020-05-11 23:07
2020-05-11 22:49
2020-05-11 22:45
2020-05-11 22:20
2020-05-11 22:19
2020-05-11 22:14
2020-05-11 22:11
2020-05-11 21:49
2020-05-11 21:38
2020-05-11 21:38
2020-05-11 21:21
2020-05-11 21:09
2020-05-11 21:09
2020-05-11 21:08
2020-05-11 21:06
2020-05-11 20:47
2020-05-11 20:37
2020-05-11 20:30
2020-05-11 20:30
2020-05-11 20:02
2020-05-11 19:23
2018-06-08 14:52

blockchair.com

The average time (Ignoring seconds since blockchair.com doesn't show them) is exactly 10 minutes, which explains exactly why https://diff.cryptothis.com/ still shows

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Next Difficulty Change: between +3.7027% and +4.4993%

Almost the exact same figures prior to the halving, so we were mining 3-4% more blocks, and now we are back to the normal hashrate of where we started this epoch, in plain English, no drop in hashrate yet, which is freaking strange.

I checked the Chinese market to see if re-sellers are dropping gear prices and found out that nothing has changed,they seem to be selling well at pre-halving prices!, hashrate isn't going anywhere despite a whopping 50% reduction in rewards, which makes me think that someone with a lot of money and a very very good power deal is powering up a ton of mining gears so whatever hashrate leaves it gets replaced instantly and that's why we didn't fall off the cliff.

This is BAD news to the average joe with average power rate, those who were counting on a difficulty drop and/or increase in price are now doomed, with the current results the average joe with 6 cents per kwh or above can only make a profit ( a tiny one) with S17's efficiency or better, even T17 isn't profitable anymore at these prices, I think the rules of the mining game might be changed forever after this halving, those who have no access to pretty cheap power rate can no longer compete with the regular gears, what else can they do? pay $2000 for S19 to receive it 4 months later?

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Quote from: stompix on May 11, 2020, 07:31:48 AM

Blockchain says:

Quote from: https://www.blockchain.com/en/stats

Summary of bitcoin statistics for the previous 24 hour period.
Blocks Mined 178
Time Between Blocks 7.23 minutes

Well, it was expected:

Quote

Blocks Mined 141
Time Between Blocks 9.25 minutes

Blocks after 630 000 have an average ~12 mins between them, way too early (only 40 blocks mined) to toss numbers around but it's going to hurt.
The mempool is also pretty empty, just 16k transactions so far for now we won't be having any spikes in fees yet, let's see what happens when it hits 12GMT, that's usually the time when tx start picking up again, price is flat....happy halving! Grin

I think there should be a change at least for a week, from Hodl to Mine!

mikeywith

legendary

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be constructive or S.T.F.U

I did some calculations with the current figures :

If you have 3 cents per kwh, you make 11 cents a day with an S9, that's more like break-even, anything above 3 cents is a no go with the S9, and most people don't have that cheap rate so unless something unusual happens these S9s will be selling for 20-30$ with PSU.

The Breakeven for S11 is 4 cents.
The Breakeven for S15 is 5 cents.
The Breakeven for T17 is 6 cents.

Without proper tuning, and a drop in difficulty/ BTC price rising, any gear that is either equality efficient or less efficient compared to T17 will be in trouble, but a drop in difficulty is more than likely, but that won't last long, it's only a matter of a few months until the M30s and S19s kick the T17 out of the game as well, I am assuming that the average rate for miners is 6 cents per KWh, so if you don't want to count on the price to save you by going to much higher numbers, and you own any of those gears, it's probably a good time to re-think your options before it's too late.

Stay strong fellow miners.

alh

legendary

Activity: 1846

Merit: 1052

Looks like it happened. I personally didn't feel anything but my minuscule mining operation has been off for months ($.10 power cost). Interesting to see what happens from here. If miners behave rationally, we should expect to see lengthening block solve times as hash rate disappears over the next week or so.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

The space heaters are really quite nice.

300 watts 3.3th. and super quiet with lessor fans

we are below 25 blocks to the 1/2 ing. I will be picking fans up and s9's on may 13 th.

jbillk

member

Activity: 71

Merit: 41

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 11, 2020, 10:18:50 AM

I can make 11 space heaters. I will hold 17 s9's in storage.

I find you can make decent profits flipping the S9s with hobby, or entry level miners. I buy them when nobody wants them, and resell them locally when we get a decent price run up/FOMO.

If BTC runs up to ATH again they could be worth decent penny. Especially when new miners sell out everywhere. I've done this on the last 3 price surges. They are a easy sell because of the 120V, 1200W rating. Standard 15A circuit.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: jbillk on May 11, 2020, 10:07:21 AM

This will be interesting, ill be taking all my miners offline after the last 12.5 block. Great time for maintenance.

I'll gradually bring the most efficient back online if the profitability is there. Hopefully after the difficulty adjustment ill have them all running again.

My S9s are definitely going in storage today.

if you have some room to store them it makes sense.

a hot shit coin could pop up on nicehash like it did a month ago.

or BTC could rally.

we are going to turn off 310 th in s9's

make some into space heaters and sell them.

I can make 11 space heaters. I will hold 17 s9's in storage.

the rest we will store in case of a price rally.

WE will mine with the rest of the gear.

jbillk

member

Activity: 71

Merit: 41

This will be interesting, ill be taking all my miners offline after the last 12.5 block. Great time for maintenance.

I'll gradually bring the most efficient back online if the profitability is there. Hopefully after the difficulty adjustment ill have them all running again.

My S9s are definitely going in storage today.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

people are simply maximizing hash rate for the next 40 blocks.

it does let you know how much is offline as most is back up running.

yeah i am doing s17pro as s19pro is not widely available.

s19pro is a disaster 2600 plus shipping plus import taxes

for 29 watts vs 38 watts a th. and wait for 2 months.

the next 30 days will be brutal.

stompix

legendary

Activity: 2912

Merit: 6403

Blackjack.fun

Blockchain says:

Quote from: philipma1957 on May 11, 2020, 07:01:04 AM

so a 100 s17pro farm at 4 cent power earns 440 usd a day in a few hours it drops to 105 usd a day

A 100k investment will generate 3k a month, yeah, sounds like a good plan, 3 years of trying to make a ROI, while praying nothing breaks. This is starting to look like the shale oil business.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

49 blocks left to the 1/2 ing

At the moment project difficulty is at an all Time high

of 16.7 to 17.0

If we close at a new diff of 17.0 and a price of 8888.88

a 50 th s17pro would drop to 3.35 usd a day pre power cost if set to normal. It would use 46 kwatts per day

it nets : -------------------------currently nets

2.89 at 1 cent ------------------ 6.24
2.43 at 2 cent ------------------ 5.78
1.97 at 3 cent ------------------ 5.32
1.51 at 4 cent ------------------ 4.86
1.05 at 5 cent ------------------ 4.40
  .59 at 6 cent ------------------ 3.94
  .13 at 7 cent ------------------ 3.48

-.37 at 8 cents ------------------ 3.02

that is brutal since that is the most efficient miner

a 50 watt miner 50 th miner vs 38 watts 50th for the s17pro uses 60 kwatts

same 3.35 for free power

2.75 for 1 cent power
2.15 for 2 cent power
1.55 for 3 cent power
.95 for 4 cent power
.35 for 5 cent power

-.25 cents for six cent power

I suspect the network is at 60 watts

so a 60 watt 50 th is 72 kwatts a day

same 3.35 for free power

2.63 for 1 cent power
1.91 for 2 cent power
1.19 for 3 cent power
  .47 for 4 cent power
-.25 for 5 cent power

so a 100 s17pro farm at 4 cent power earns 440 usd a day in a few hours it drops to 105 usd a day

now take the following into account it was a small farm and like my setup runs in a place that does other shit. So no building overhead. No worker overhead since the guy owning it does it himself or has another worker check it once in a while.

This guy can survive.

turn it into a dedicated business and the build is more over head. this miner will struggle.

Oh one more thing in both cases gear is fully paid off. These small-middle size guys will survive.

Make it a 1000 machine farm with 1 or 2 worker over head build overhead and debt they will be in a lot of trouble.
Make it a 10000 machine farm wit 3-5 workers and high leverage they will fold.

In all cases I am using a farm with all s17pros.

vapourminer

legendary

Activity: 4354

Merit: 3614

what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?

Quote from: Searing on May 10, 2020, 04:03:47 PM

We will see. Chump or Champ. Moon or Doom. Boom or Bust

well i always said i would ride this pig either to the moon or till it hit the the ground so hard and made a crater so big a new sea will be named after it.

Quote from: Searing on May 10, 2020, 04:03:47 PM

BTC/Crypto: Always Drama! Sad

halfing. covid-19. bitmain internal civil war. multiple economies in the toilet. burrr machines running at such high speeds it was never before though possible.

this is next level drama. need more than just popcorn this time around. perhaps we need popcorn to be stockpiled in our strategic reserve. should be plenty of room as currently its pretty empty.

EDIT: in previous btc halfings was there ever such a potential drop of hash rate vs price when hash power could actually go somewhere else (bch/bsv)?

1st halfing was gpu/fpga/asic transition, 2nd halfing was asic to a better asic (process shrinks were still happening regularly). this time around process has matured to the point near state of the art and bitmain is holding all the aces and wont let anyone play with them.

is that more or less the situation (pardon my memory of history)? cuz if so this does set up some pain.

apologies for ignorant questions and/or errors in my thinking; i stopped btc mining around the BFL dumpster fire time.

mikeywith

legendary

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be constructive or S.T.F.U

Quote from: vickersja on May 10, 2020, 09:36:45 AM

Mining rewards are less but become more frequent...

Not sure this is the best way to describe it, the will be no "more frequent" rewards, the frequency of the rewards is always the same, the amount will be less unless 50% of miners leave the game which will never happen, so overall the halving is a bad thing for us miners, it doesn't matter how you try to look at it, deflation "should" cause the price of bitcoin to rise, but there is no guarantee in that.

Quote from: vickersja on May 10, 2020, 09:36:45 AM

... but is this what I can expect?

expect a 50% drop in rewards, and 25% in difficulty ( roughly), so this means you will get -25% less rewards post halving, sad times indeed but we got to get through them.

Quote from: vickersja on May 10, 2020, 09:36:45 AM

Also wondering if sites like Nicehash will be more profitable to point my gear to instead of pools. At least until difficulty drops down.

If this was a smaller coin halving, I would say yes, NH will most likely be better, but this is BTC, it has over 95% of the Sha256 hasharate, so there could still be a small potential profit in NH but nothing major I would say, although the better question is should you stay on PPLNS pool or move to PPS, that would be an interesting topic to speculate.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

½ ing is under 155 blocks so monday at 5pm eastern standard time it as good a guess as any.

We are creeping up in diff +3.9%

price sucks about 8701 which is brutal for us miners.

My bread and butter is the 15 s17 pros they do 38 watts a th or about 53kwatts a day they will earn 4.08 a day before power

3 cent 1.62 2.46 profit
4 cent 2.16 1.92 profit
5 cent 2.70 1.38 profit
6 cent 3.24 .84 profit

so most gear is worse then the s17pro

and the s19 the s19pro or not coming for months

blood in the water coming up.

Searing

copper member

Activity: 2898

Merit: 1465

Clueless!

well...was this just something of a whale dump in order to take advantage of Coinbase crash? or Is it something as simple on how a big miner (or group) is trying to slam down and get out other miners to capitulate before halving to get more mining control. Like Bitmain mined at a loss for 3 months to try the BCH pump/dump scam?

lastly, hell...we may find out that BTC/Crypto prices are a 'precursor' to the Stock Market Dumping big time due to more reality of Covid-19 Pandemic....BTC/Crypto seems to drop dramatically in price ..just before the Stock Market dumps etc, probably because BTC/Crypto is ahead of such curves in that has 24/7 trading.

We will see. Chump or Champ. Moon or Doom. Boom or Bust

BTC/Crypto: Always Drama! Sad

Brad

Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 22. (Read 14827 times)