Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 25. (Read 14827 times)

Yeah, you could actually be right. At a second look, they would have had to make ~830000 units of S11/T15/S15 which seems a bit odd, so let's say that there is 5EH which would make it ~210000 units which seems more reasonable.

So around 10EH more should be of S9's and 5EH more of S17PRO but correct me if I am a bit off with numbers.

So hypothetically, that would be 60W/TH avg.

Which is a bit odd in my opinion, even my first calculation seemed a bit off, before I calculated I thought that avg would be around 70W/TH at least.

Your numbers look reasonable to me, except for the quoted part, i highly doubt we have 10-20 EH of s11/S15, those gears are pretty rare, but let us just assume your final number is even better than mine as far as predicting that difficulty can still easily go above ath after the halving despite price staying below 8k, if the current average is 40w/th then my predictions will fail, the higher the average the more likely we climb up a few weeks post halving.

I think there is at least 40EH and let's say that they are all on newest firmware and that is around 80W/TH (old stock ones are around 100W/TH if I remember correctly) and let's say that 20EH are all S11 and S15 (not sure how many have they produced of those but 10-20EH would be my guess) which are between 55 and 75 W/TH and let's just say that rest (aprox. 50EH) is S17PRO (I know that there is a lot of S/T 17/17e/17+ but S17PRO stock mode has 40 W/TH and that seems like a good average of newer gear for my calculation).

So, if my estimates are 100% right, that would give us 65W/TH average for all gear currently mining BTC only.

As well all know, my calculation is purely based on speculation and random figures, so take it with truck load of salt. But I personally think that with my calculation I am not that off from actual value.

tired will check it better on thursday.

What do you think is the average watts/th we have now? If it is 50w/th.. say we drop 30% post halving and we be at 70eh, if a good number of miners get S17 pro and more efficienct gears we can simply double the hashrate to 140eh without price having to do a thing, please let me know where does my estimates fail here.

I think the price needs to be over 8k to break all time hashrate.

And that may be an underestimate of price needed.

But I do believe   we will go over 150eh this year.

I have explained in details how will a whooping 50% drop in hashrate has a very little period of adjustment delay ( 1 extra week), i have also explained that just because rewards cut in half hashrate won't follow, proof is, we went from 8k to 4k during the same epoch, hashrate did not decrease by over 15% , 8k to 4k is the same as 12.5 btc to 6.25btc , because we pay our bills in $$ after all.

I want you to explain, why do you think the delay will be massive when the numbers in front of you state the opposite?

I agree to your statement, mining is now business driven more than any time in the past, but if a bunch of hobby miners made it during the halving, then huge farms with tons of money and planning will do even better.

Tl;DR

The halving is overrated, it will have no real huge impact on neither price nor hashrate, it will pass smoothly, and in a few months  we will break the all time high of hashrate regardless of price.

I get the argument. But I have typed before in this thread that 75,000,000 USD is enough money to run over 50eh for a month.  So if 17,000,000 btc has been mined

at 7,000 a coin that is 119 billion
at 6,000 a coin that is 102 billion
at 5,000 a coin that is   85 billion
at 4,000 a coin that is   68 billion
at 3,000 a coin that is   51 billion
at 2,000 a coin that is   34 billion
at 1,000 a coin that is   17 billion

So I am certain that the 75 million in power would be spent till the next adjustment

with the ½ factor and any of the prices above.

Which means you need destroyed gear and lots of it along with both of the above for your issue to happen.

Now  do i think price can be tanked to 1,000 sure if the right people do it.
do I think they will do it no I don't think so.

the ½ ing over makes your example possible for 1 adjustment.

so we need the ½ ing on day 1 of the adjustment
we need a really low price point on the same day
we need ½ the gear to be turned off.
we need the other ½ to be compromised down to ⅛ destroyed confiscated etc
we need all asic builders to shut down

which would mean 8 x 13 = 104 days to next adjustment.

Now you also are saying in addition to all of the above  that no one will step up to rent  any of the gear turned off .

You can bet people will want to rent to save their held coins.

So it is more likely  a second far more deadly wave of corona-v 2x happens we have already have this history during the spanish flu.

So rather then push an unlikely problem such as you mention  which is possible but really not so likely.  why not ask do you think the second wave of corona-v happens and do you think it will be really bad like the spanish flu was.

lets try it another way.  what did you think is the chance of all the wrong things happening such as you mention.

1 in 10
1 in 100
1 in 1000
1 in 10,000

vs corona-v has  a far more deadly second wave

1 in 5
1 in 50
1 in 500

I would guess the odd above far easier for corona-v 2x to occur then your idea.

my guesses are in bold type.

I think numbers do matter, because 4 years ago it was more of a hobby, more decentralized, mining at a loss is not a big deal. Now it's an industry, mining farms need to pay their power bills. The will just turn off and wait for the difficulty to drop. Now you require the same electricity as a small country to keep the network running. The losses will be much higher in terms of $.

We will see what happens in 30 days. I'm nut FUDing, just speculating. Just being contrarian.

Probably is just luck playing with us:


I think that 3 and 4 could trigger the first as a panic sell-off, if they will do it in public and let the world know about with their propaganda machine, but with the current economic crisis looming it's probably the last thing they want to do, more unemployed people, less exports. As for the last, the natural disaster, we already have one in the making  , a major flood or earthquake right now would make everything go down, not just bitcoin.

he pushes that fear a lot.  It is possible but you need the ½ ing and a real crash in price along with government action against chinese asic companies to all occur on the 1st day of a difficulty adjustment.

So do I think it could happen yes do I think it is likely to happen no.

If price drops to 3000
if ½ occurs right then
if china raids every big farm they can
if china arrest multiple asic builders
 if a natural disaster destroys a usa farm and a canada farm  he would be correct.

Note all must happen within 1 or 2 days at the beginning of an adjustment period.

The last block of the current 12.5BTC period will be 630,000 which will be during difficulty epoch number 312 which stars at block 628992, so we have

Epoch          Start                            Halving                                  End

 310            624960                            -                                       626975
 311            626976                            -                                       628991
 312            628992   (1008)          630,000        (1006)                631007

In other words, 1010 blocks would have been mined with 12.5BTC and only 1006 blocks will be mined at 6.25BTC, so assuming 50% of the hashrate will drop then it means instead of roughly being stuck in the epoch for another week it will be two weeks.

So half epoch  = 1 week
second half >  at 100% hashrate = 1 week / at 50% hashrate = 2 weeks

so the worst-case scenario will be 1+2 (3 weeks) before difficulty drops again - 25%.

The above are rough figures, not taking price change into account, also -50% drop in hashrate is not possible, it's only possible if miners were barely profitable, which is not the case, there is enough room for more than 50% of miners to stay, so in my estimation, the worst I expect in terms of difficulty adjustment is 4 extra days.


The numbers don't matter, it's the ratio the does, a 100ET is no different than 1EH prior to the halving 4 years ago, the impact is the same.

No it won't  take as long as you think.

Any big holder has a vested interest in keeping hash rate up.

The worst case is an instant 50%  hashrate drop on day 1 which equals   28 days until the next jump.

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Not saying we are going to stop completely. I think there is a possibility that it could take a vary long time to the next adjustment after the halving. The difficulty and infrastructure was very small in the previous halving compared to today. We are at 100EH now, how much of the 100EH is profitable with 6.25 block reward? Margins seem already very tight as is for the majority of miners at current prices and difficulty.

okay we had jump 4 am EST  IT WAS TO 14.7


to early to tell what is up.

BCH did its ½ ing it now pays a big 6.3 cents a th daily   vs 12.1 cents a th for BTC

BSV will ½ in a day

I expect the hash to leave them and come to BTC this week.

Yeah with out price moving up ½ ing will take out a ton of hash in May.

As for the Health report for us in NJ,NT,CT

I got better it is as if I was not sick from dec 31 to jan 20  with corona-v?

My wife has finally  begun  to show a good recovery  she was really sick from  dec 26 to feb 20  with a 3 day hospitalization jan 13 to jan 16  also possible corona-v.

Both of us have normal temps   we take it 3 times a day
both of us have 95-98 blood O2   vs  91-93 blood O2

She is off the inhaler  and still has good O2

She is now using flonase for post nasal drip and she does not  get as much in her lungs forcing her to cough for 20-30 minutes at a time.

We know 3 of her 4 cousins are recovering but one is still on a ventilator  we worry for him.

I would agree with you on the diff looking at the way the market it at the moment I think it may be a push to be up at 11k by then so we may see this play out like your saying.

I can see bitcoin going back to the hands of the many rather than the few in the coming months if the price takes a nose dive we keep hitting resistance around the 7k mark which is no use for the larger farms.

If we do see a large scale drop in the hash rate over the next few months it's going to make for some interesting times again in the bitcoin world.

Thanks for the update and I hope you and your wife are feeling better.

Magic

I see a jump of 2-6%  on the april 8 to april 21/22 adjustment

I see a jump of 2-6% on the April 21/22 to may 4/5/6 adjustment

The ½ ing is due in may  around 10-15

at the all-time high diff and ½ the coins a ton of gear is dead unless price is 11k

so the diff in may on the 18th or so will drop somewhat
and the diff in very early june will drop again.

I don't ever go far out but i think I will be close to the 4 jumps after this on tomorrow .

we are at 13.9 for a day

+5-6     say april 8    we go to 14.7
+2-6     Say april 21  we go to  15.6
+2-6     say may 5     we go to 16.4  close to all time high
 -4-7     say may 19   we drop to 15.7
-10-15  say june 2     we drop to 13.8 


I base this on a price of 8k-9k by june 2

I never try to reach out this far in diff guesses but i feel safe enough to think this is correct.

I might have finally guessed one right, by taking a 2.5% spread and this just by a thread  




after a 10%, another 20% on their "accelaration" plan

we agree on the 5% for this jump.

next jump is tricky if we start on the 10th of april we could squeeze 2 jumps

then the 1/2 ing comes.

So I have a few thoughts

turn every single piece of old gear on mine the two jumps then shut the gear off.
or buy coin.

I think buying coin is smarter then turning the older less efficient gear back on.

Unless you have super cheap power.