Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 23. (Read 14627 times)

No , maybe, yes

That has been true for different 1/2 ings

And remember covid-19 is a completely new wrinkle.

What has never happened at a 1/2 ing for btc is a severe drop in hashing. or difficulty.
but it did happen with the LTC 1/2 ing last summer.
it did happen with other coins.

I suspect it is going to happen with btc.

a 20% hash rate drop is in the cards.
a 20% coin price rise to a stable 10-11k is not as likely.

this is a 2-4 month time guess
I am more certain of the hashrate drop to a diff of 12 or 11

then I am of a stable 11k coin.

So this is my first halving as a miner.  Is this what I can expect while mining bitcoin?

Halving occurs
Rewards cut in half in pools
Miners turn off equipment
Difficulty drops
Mining rewards are less but become more frequent

Understanding this is an oversimplification, but is this what I can expect?

Also wondering if sites like Nicehash will be more profitable to point my gear to instead of pools.  At least until difficulty drops down.

yeah and 1/2 ing in 259 blocks

for mining the 8471 is like 4235 ugh

The surge in coin price appears to have evaporated: $8471 now.

Looks like a lot of fud occurring for miners. we drifted to about +0.49% I would have thought a strong rise in hash and then a drop in 3 days once ½ ing occurs   coins are about 9700 right now  which means for miners they are about 4850.

I wonder if they will be a strong retreat to bch and bsv and gear gets turned off.

things will be jumping very soon.

Broke 10K for a bit.  Back down.

Price needs to go over 12,000 to prevent a drop in hash. we are at 9800   which is 4900 which means strong drop in hash.

https://bitcoinblockhalf.com/   4 days and 2 hours.

Hihi, it was telling me 51sat/b, what he got was  3.247 sat/B - 1.281 sat/WU  

Anyhow, seems like there was no need for my tips, price is starting to knock at the 10k doors so we might really avoid the huge drop in hash rate. Btw, again today we haven't seen an empty mempool, usually early morning GMT0 time it was like that after each block, not anymore and with the jump in price it will probably last a few days again.


3 4 days left till the halving. And with the increase in price right now you can finally ROI with an s19 in less than a year with free power and no Trump tax. (assuming halved reward)

LE: Of course 4, not 3, thanks philipma1957

May I start you on the path to luck here is your first merit, cause your post got me to  smile 😀 .

Good thing all my gear hit the ROI over a year ago, and I have free power  What sucks is i really want to upgrade my setup with some whats miner 72 TH but i have no more power available. I live in a 4-plex and my breaker box is maxed out. I got 3x s15's running off the dryer outlet 

I only have a total of 127 TH but i got it all on solo for now hoping to hit, but not too likely. I hope the diff drops like a stone after the half, even at 6.25 a solo block would be damn nice but the diff will not lower too much because luck and me never meet 

if it says pay 💰   60 ,70 ,80 ,90 sats. I pay 💰 24-28 sats.

if it says 40, 50 sats I pay 💰 21 sats.

if it says under forty I pay 10 sats.

I also consolidate wallets on my three trezor wallets use 1 or 2 sats since 8 don’t care how long it takes from my wallet to my other wallet.

"Hope for the Best. Expect the worst".

I want nothing more than seeing BTC rise in value, but there is a reason why I think we are more likely to go down than up.


Don't count on your wallet to tell you the fees you need to pay, last night I was making a transaction and Coinomi suggested a bit over 70 sats per byte if I am not mistaken, I checked the unconfirmed transactions and figured out I could get away with just 5 sats, and it went through in no time, but hey, you should support miners, they are the backbone of BTC, tip them with high fees.

coins are 8850 or for us miners 4425 in six days.

I see upwards trend till the 12th. and the storm begins

13.74 cents a th drops to
 6.87 cents a th

100th of 50 watt gear.   drops from 13.74 to 6.87 usd a day.   120 kwatts at 5 cents = 6.00. so profit is only  87 cents on 50 watt a th gear I estimate the network to be at 60-65 watts per th. A lot of gear will drop off here.


the s19 pro will go from 15.11 to 7.55.

 5 cent power means it will earn 1.55 a day or 1800 days to break even at 5 cent power
 3 cent power means it will earn 5.39 a day or.  517 days to break even at 3 cent power

I use a price of 2790 for a s19 pro. and the gear is due to show up in about 60 days   so

1860 days to break even with 5 cent power
 577 days to break even with 3 cent power.

and most likely. it will cost more then. 2790 if you buy today with shipping and import fees.

Trump is screaming about China owning the whole world for covid-19 translation he will jack import tax on china.

If you order a s19 pro today shipping date is July 1-31. It could be subject to a higher import tax. maybe 35%

that would mean it is not 2790 it will be 2633+167 = 2800 + 921 = 3700

3700 is 2387 days to break even oh add on 60 day wait for gear

 it is 2447 day to break even for a 5 cent power guy.
 it is  686 day to break even for a 3 cent power guy.
 it is 550 day to break even for a free power guy.

translation. either price moves way up. or diff drops way down

Quite the teddybear, why are you that pessimistic? Not that I expect a miraculous jump that will also keep the price above 10k for a long period but there will be a bit of hype for the event, enough to at least 1k 2k even if it will be only temporary as people will strat realize the halving is not some magic pill.
But this temporary boost combine with (possible!) s19 deliveries might help us avoid a really dramatic 30% drop.

Yesterday electrum was telling me to pay 51sat/b, I really don't want to know what fees might pop up with blocks coming out 1/3 slower.

we have 89 blocks to go.


logic dictates max out your hash now and until block 630000  which is 1098 blocks away.

We could push to 1% gain this jump .  and the first week of the next jump you may as well try as hard as you can to make coins.

A little is the last word I would use to describe the difficulty drop, unfortunately, it won't be May 19th but a bit later, here is how I see this playing out, the current epoch is ending tomorrow at just about flat 0%, so here is a break down for visualization for the next epoch


May 5 < from here
May 6
May 7
May 8
May 9
May 10
May 11 < to here, the average block time will be 10 mins
May 12 < party starts here, I suspect a drop in hashrate by at least 30% and this from here
May 13
May 14
May 15
May 16
May 17
May 18 < to here the average block time should be 10*130% 13 mins

so half blocks at 10 mins, the other half at 13 mins, the average timestamp will be 11.5 which will result in 15% drop, treat the dates as 144 blocks, which means the diff adjustment won't happen on 19th but 15% later which is 21st of May.

The above assumes no major changes in price, which I doubt, we are more likely to be at the 7k to low 8k region by then, which will make things even worse, so a 20% drop in difficulty is not too far a stretch, but let's wait and see.

Seems like gear is being added

From -2 to -0.14 in two days


Now:


In 363 blocks the difference to the target has been cut from 41 blocks to 5, that's an increase of 10% compared to the previous trend. Of course, it might be some luck that is messing with the statistics but it's also possible we might not see a drop this time. One and half day left... And for the next epoch, popcorn time!  

yeah with 500 blocks to go. we look like a small drop which actually will help prevent a huge drop next jump

still over 8800 price but we really need to get to 12000 to avoid large drops in the diff.

The s-19's will roll out very slowly

the m30s is $$$ and I think it is 38 watts a th.


https://pangolinminer.com/product/whatsminer-m30s-with-psu/

1980 ships in 5 days

88th and 3480 watts  is 39.5 watts short wait has some attraction


they have a video on the 30s++

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=16&v=Ze2c4YTVsJw&feature=emb_logo

they insist on 3400 watt units with a c19/c20 connection

which means  220 volts to 240 volts is okay but if you sag to 210 volts you are breaking code for constant run.

When the price jumped this was one of my first thoughts, we're going to avoid an average-to-serious drop in hash rate during the next period, no 15-20 minutes between blocks, no panicking over transactions stuck, with one more little push it will compensate for all. With newer gear probably (finally!) arriving and the efficiency increase, we will still have the same security over the network.

Seeing how activity (transactions) have picked up again after the price jump, we really don't need slower blocks right now :

Mempool size in MB taken from Jochen-hoenicke website.



The pandemic is slowing, countries are restarting activity, price is up, it's already summer here, ...everything is looking nice, right? And the s19 ROI period has been cut by a few months