Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 26. (Read 14627 times)

Strange enough, the price keeps going up while diff is slowing down



1812 blocks down, 204 to go (34 hours estimated) to next adjustment, I expect us to close this round with +5% in terms of difficulty and coins at about flat $7400 or slightly below, with diff staying at 14.5T and coins prices above $7000 I expect a ton of gears to go back online, and the following diff adjustment could go to as high as 10%, in other words, back to difficulty's ATH.

Some real price movement we broke 7000  and are at 7104

diff is up 5.1% with 380 blocks to go.

Can't complain.   

diff is still good


+4.677%   and price at 6730

works for me it can stay    in this area as far as I am concerned.

720 blocks to go to next jump.

I disagree, from mining as business's point of view it is actually good to have all those coins on the same algo, they keep a portion of the hashrate away from btc so mining btc gets a little bit more profitable,  adding up all sha256 coins we get what, 10E for an example? That is about 10% more profit mining btc, from another point of view you may be right, but profit wise, i disagree.


Bsv hashrate gets to as low as 1-2E for some days, after the halving, you can probably attack it by a single order on nicehash  , however, there is little to no financial incentives to attack bsv.

Hihi, I've thought about the same a week ago:


And bcash still has bitmain behind which might try and support the hash rate but bsv might be done for. It's not like one year before where you had to search a lot around for gear to buy, right not there is a ton of it around, assuming 5-20$ per TH it will cost probably less than 50 million to attack bsv, the only problem would be getting the facility and the power but it's doable. If you rent it's even easier...


I expected a better rebound, but lets' see, we're testing 7000 again.

actually using the same algorithm for multiple coins is really bad.  we have had more then one coin on an algorithm shared by multiple coins get attacked.

merged mining ⛏ say btc and nmc is not a big deal.

but mining bsv btc bch all separately will one day have an attack.

Good point, the average hashrate for both coins has been around 5-8E for the past month, let's use a worst-case scenario and say 8E, without prices change in different ratios between those two coins and BTC, it's safe to assume that 4E will move to BTC at the worst-case scenario, BSV halving is in 7 days, so that will not count towards the current epoch, BCH's halving is in 5 days, so some of it's hashpower might actually move to BTC this epoch.

Current BTC hashrate is about 107E, so 4E = 3.7%, not a big deal, goes out to show that only 3.7% of bitcoin hashrate's can attack the two shit coins with a 51% attack simultaneously.

Fast updates

wife still coughing due to endless post nasal drip 💧 all caused by pneumonia in early jan.
i am fully recovered from this.
we suspect we had the corona-v then.

my wifes first cousin in Long Island New York and her husband have been released from hospital.
they had it and are recovering. they are both over 60.
she is a practicing nurse 👩‍⚕️.

we have a second cousin in Connecticut he has a mild version of it and is recovered. He was 50.
we have another second cousin in Connecticut her husband is in intensive care with it. an induced coma and a ventilator .   people in this spot die a lot. he is maybe 50-50 to live.

New Jersey New York and connecticut are   about 1/2 as bad as they are supposed to get.

So wherever you are  get masks gloves food water and be prepped for it to come to you.
here in NJ we may end up having 4-6 weeks restricted movement.

I try to shop for food 2 x a week.
I drop packages at fedex once a week.
I gassed the car 🚘 and try to not drive much at all.

as for diff.
we have not traveled to the farm in clifton since january.
a few small units are off line. 3 s9 and 1 L3+ but 2ph sha 256 and 10.5gh ltc on line.

we also did not bring the new s17+ online to the main farm.
buysolar is running it off his solar array.
we did not get the avalon a1066 pro gear to demo.
we wont be adding gear ⚙️ until a while.

diff is up 4-5% I suspect a lot of areas are waiting to see what this corona-v does to world 🌍 so many will not expand until may or later.

and then the 1/2 comes.

By the way.   bsv and bch do 1/2 ing very soon. this could bump btc diff.

three s9s one l3+ off line after sixty days of runtime with out hands on is pretty good.

all bigger gears are running.

Basically I can mine at a loss of 100 a month for years.
I would run a s17 pro till it broke.
then unbox another s17 pro till it broke.

Us miners would be like the Cubans were with the 1950s american cars 🚙.

---

We are about +5% diff due about april 7-9

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

price around 6300

Maybe we drift sideways rest of this jump

At +5%  we would need 3 jumps to reach all time diff high again.

½ ing due may https://www.bitcoinsensus.com/bitcoin-halving-countdown/

from May 8 to May 14

Phill you don't really have to go out of your way to explain to the said member how keeping the blockchain alive can be done at any level without the need for much power/money, I have a simpler example that I always tell to those who lack understanding of basic mining concepts and scream "Oh mining is going to die after price hit x in price", "the cost of mining 1 BTC < what it's worth", " the halving will kill mining".

I have free power at home, I can have at least 1*S9 run forever with 0 loss, and that alone can keep the mining operation going, that miner has already been paid for, cost me nothing to run, I got a few spare PSUs and fans and two internet connections not counting the 4g on my phone,I got a 5kw diesel generator, 4*100amh batteries and a 1.5kw inverter, so myself alone can maintain the blockchain for a good period of time.

I personally know of AT LEAST 50ph that run on absolutely free electricity, that number is pretty small, but it's only what I know, what I don't know is most likely a thousand-time more, miners with free power will be the last line of defense, they will only leave once 1 BTC = 0, so at 10$ BTC and block rewards is  0.39 BTC ( 5 halvings from now) they will still mine bitcoin, and the rest is just noise.

Playing devil's advocate.  Corona-v mutates hits all the world in three waves.  Much Like the spanish flu did back in 2018-2019.  This is a new factor for the so called modern world with its vast inter continental supply chains. We kind of don't know how to rate it.

VALUE OF BLOCK REWARD TO TX FEES  changes again and each change it makes tx fees gain importance

if a block now its 12.5 + .5

and it goes to 6.25 + .5  that tx fee gains importance.

Personally I don't see his problem occurring this ½ ing.

He does not understand how much power is 'free'.
He does not understand many farms are simply used for load shedding for large dams during rainy season.
Also he does not understand the entire network uses less power then any major dam power plant.

Now using understand in the sentences above is a major presumption on my part. Maybe I am wrong and he is correct.  Which means I don't understand the dynamics correctly he does.

Well this gets settled soon.  I do expect this to be more like LTC was last year.  which did drop the diff a lot. and the price.   Once it recovered corona-v came along and fucked up everything in all markets all over the world.

I really want to stress this:

1  s17 pro pulls  2200 watts and does 53th  50 kwatts a day for 30 days = 1500 kwatts at 5 cents =75 dollars.
10 s17 pro         22000                      530th 500                                   = 15000                         = 750 dollars
100 s17 pro........220000....................5.3ph 5000............................... = 150000......................=7500 dollars
1000 s17 pro......2200000...................53ph  50000............................. = 1500000....................= 75000 dollars
10000 s17 pro....22000000..................530ph 500000...........................= 15000000 ................. =750000 dollars
100000 s17 pro...22000000..................5,3eh 5000000......................... =150000000............... = 7,500,000 dollars
1000000 s17 pro.220000000................53eh   50000000 ..................... = 1500000000............. = 75,000,000 dollars

so the power bill for 53 eh if all s17 pro and network took a month to hit a new adjustment is 75 million if it is 5 cent power.

This problem is solved by spending 75 million in power for a month.  There are more then one company that would do this .  and you would still earn some coins so  while there would be a loss it would be a one time event.  Major companies have big solar fields  mining they will continue to mine many companies have 1 and 2 cent power not 5 cent power.  We would need a huge drop off of hash more then 50% to go past the 30 day example I am showing.

So I don't think it is a big fear. It could happen but corona-v10x could happen in 5 years and who gives a shit about btc or crypto coins at all.

Only the block-rewards will drop by 50%, block rewards is not revenue, it is not even the most important element of mining revenue.


Only valid for a maximum of any given 2016 blocks.


Unprofitable miners can turn off their gears, come back after another 2016 blocks have been mined since difficulty will be a lot lower, so your argument is invalid.


It's always a matter of 2016 blocks, the difficulty is based on that number the word "duration" makes no sense and changes nothing.


This does not affect miners, it affects senders.


There is no need for new miners to join, a single miner can keep the blockchain going, whoever is profitable will stay, whoever mines at loss will leave and wait for either a drop in difficulty or a rise in price, if non of the above happens, it means there are ENOUGH miners and the economy of mining can't accept newcomers unless they 1- find a cheaper source of power 2- buy more efficient gears, rinse and repeat, this is not the first halving, not the last, 2 previous halvings went perfectly fine, what makes you think this one is going to be any different?

You lack knowledge my friend...

You are throwing around "big" words about mining, but you either do not understand how it actually works or you are just attention seeker. I'll leave this conversation now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0zMFfvXblA Excellent recent podcast with Preston Pysh, mostly about prices, volatility, trading and the money side but speculating on the gaming of halving and difficulty adjustment timings to level the playing field of amateur versus professional, as well as hiding bitcoin in a speculative cloak of volatility.

But isn't that when difficulty drops?  Or are you saying the amount of time until that drop will be much greater with less hashpower on the network?

No, Been mining a while. Will not be profitable after halving, and likely turning off machines at this price.

After halving mining revenue drops by 50% due to block reward reduction.
Unprofitable miners turn off machines, increasing time to find block.
Longer block times further reduces revenue for active miners, forcing more miners to turn off.
Longer block times increase EPOC duration, making difficulty adjustment further away.
Mempool get overloaded as too little miners with too high difficulty. Slowing or freezing transactions. (higher fees may counteract this)
No new miners join as difficulty is just to high, with little chance of finding blocks.

so on, and so on..

It's just a theory, possible, not probable. Price will also have major influence. If it does happen, i'm sure the next diff adjustment will put things back to normal, just don't now how long it will take.

Getting people to agree to an emergency diff drop is not going to be easy.

We saw price drop from 10,000 to 3,900   then move to 6600

diff dropped 16%

and now that price is stable at 6600 diff is rising hard.  Your fear is not impossible .  But not likely to happen.

BTW  it does not hurt miners as much as hodlers.  Short term Traders  need v+v   volume and volatility .  miners need a mix of price power gear.  long term hodlers may have had there day in the sun.

The lowest price I saw BTC at was around 6 dollars.  a hold from 6 to 20,000 = 3333 x 1

This 3333 to 1 will never happen  at current price of 6600.  But this is a bit off the mark.

For your fear  we would need corona-v to become 10x worse then it will be  with all of us catching it and like 1 billion of us dying.
That would make enough fear no one would care about btc or crypto coins. lots of governments would fall things would be brutal all over.

BTC is too small for your problem to happen a hand full of rich guys would continue to mine no matter what.

1 acre solar farm can do 15kwatts 24/7
10 acre solar farm can do 150kwatts 24/7
100 acre solar farm can do 1500 kwatts 24/7
1000 acre solar farm can do 15000 kwatts 24/7

1 large dam can do the entire network.  You have voiced this fear more then once I don't think it will happen.

Are you new to mining? Because it seems like you are.

There are a lot of people and big mining farms with really cheap or free electricity, and they aren't really mining at a loss.

But as a miner, i can shut down my machines immediately after the halving and just wait for difficulty to drop 50+% at the next adjustment. This will save me massive amounts of electricity and money.

It's free market with tight margins, so everybody has incentive to shut down right after halving. The miners who stay on take on the burden of mining at a loss.

I think its definitely a big risk to the network, and can be easily fixed with modifying the code.