Not an issue. We won’t drop that much. The worst case would be 20 to 30 days.
There are major players that will mine till the diff adjusts.
Would this happen over and over no. It would be a one shot deal.
Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 27. (Read 14827 times)
Worried about the epoc post halving. Miners will drop off with 6.25 reward, slowing down network, making even less profitable. Could take months to get to next difficulty adjustment. Why would anybody mine at a loss, especially if more and more shut down as it slows down. Death spiral situation.
I don't understand why they just don't hard code difficulty cut at halving to keep the network going, then let the difficulty self adjust after that.
I don't understand why they just don't hard code difficulty cut at halving to keep the network going, then let the difficulty self adjust after that.
Hope you all come out of this safely. We are in Alabama and while not told to, sheltering in place. Going to Dollar General for perishables about once a week but being very careful.
Just announced that schools are closed the remainder of the year and our kids will go to an elearning after spring break.
Just announced that schools are closed the remainder of the year and our kids will go to an elearning after spring break.
Stay safe Phil and wife..... so much sadness on TV on covid19 situation in US.
USA is number 1! not that we want to be number 1.
STATE_______CASES________DEATHS
New York....... 38,987............ 432 my state of birth
New Jersey..... 6,876............ 81 my current state of residence
California........ 4,060............. 82
Washington.... 3,208............. 151
Michigan........ 2,878............. 63
Illinois........... 2,538............. 26
Florida........... 2,477............. 28
Massachusetts. 2,417............. 25
Louisiana........ 2,305............. 83
Pennsylvania... 1,690............. 16 note this was base on New York Times March 27 data
I don't like the numbers. above. My wife got sick Dec 26-28. Was put in the Hospital Jan 13-16. They Released her with a cough.
I was sick from Dec 29 to Jan 17. Here we are in late March about 90 days after my wife first fell ill. So no longer runs a temperature and her blood O2 levels are up to 96-98 meter only goes to 99 so this is good. But she has a post nasal drip that almost never ends. It makes its way into her lungs and she hacks up mucus on a daily basis. My wife's first cousin a nurse in New York is being treated for corona-v as is her husband. They are over 60 so we worry for them.
So yeah there is a lot of FUD in the USA, Lets assume it is a natural disease and that no evil doers did it. It has yet to run its course in Italy or Spain in both of those countries it has been growing worse for 20-24 days. So here in New York and New Jersey it has been growing worse for 12 days. So the next 12 days will be worse and the numbers above will be growing.
My suggestions to anyone any where. Get food that keeps and store some as best you can. Figure a way to have water, soap and aspirin or Advil or Tylenol.
Hopefully things get better for everyone but I figure Mid april for my area maybe April 15th.
As for the Diff it is going up as prices are stable at 6500-7000.
Diff is up 18%
Stay safe Phil and wife..... so much sadness on TV on covid19 situation in US.
Slush had a real nice run with the drop. At least 5 blocks in the last 3 hours. Pool scoring hash rate also took a big jump. Currently at 5.489Eh/s when it was hovering around 4.5 a few days ago.
Well it is early but we are way up. Does not surprise me one bit. Price is right around 6800 and the next 2 weeks will be a bargain mining as even s9's make money at 5 cents.
Yeah, it seems like we might see a bunch of gear get turned back on. Could be a delay though because people are still freaking out about the virus.
I'm still waiting on a block at kano's pool. Estimated 47 days until the halving and we're down to 11PH. If the average diff till then is 15T then I have about 50% chance to get 1 or more blocks, 15% to get 2 or more, 3% to get 3 or more. Looking like my gamble to move over from viabtc is most likely going to be a looser. 2 blocks between now and the halving at the current pool hashrate would put me ahead though. If nothing else, at least I'm not sending my hash off to the evil empire....
I'm still waiting on a block at kano's pool. Estimated 47 days until the halving and we're down to 11PH. If the average diff till then is 15T then I have about 50% chance to get 1 or more blocks, 15% to get 2 or more, 3% to get 3 or more. Looking like my gamble to move over from viabtc is most likely going to be a looser. 2 blocks between now and the halving at the current pool hashrate would put me ahead though. If nothing else, at least I'm not sending my hash off to the evil empire....
No need to bet. As to next diff it will go upwards if prices stay at 6600.
lets look at a 5 cent power guy
100 th is earning $12.03 ssd a day lets say it is a 40watt a th unit that is 96 kwatts
2 s17 profits
100th $12.03 -6.00 = 6.03 profit at 6 cent power
100th $12.03 -5.00 = 7.03 profit at 5 cent power
100th $12.03 -4.00 = 8.03 profit at 4 cent power
100th $12.03 -3.00 = 9.03 profit at 3 cent power
100th $12.03 -2.00 = 10.03 profit at 2 cent power
8 s9's set to 80watts
100th $12.03 - 12.00 = 3 cents profit at 6 cent power
100th $12.03 - 10.00 = 2.03 profit at 5 cent power
100th $12.03 - 8.00 = 4.03 profit at 4 cent profit this means all my s9's are back in profit
100th $12.03 - 6.00 = 6.03 profit at 3 cent profit
100th $12.03 - 4.00 = 8.03 profit at 2 cent power.
these charts show a lot of gear being turned back on at 6600 price.
100th $12.03 -1.00 = 11.03 profit
lets look at a 5 cent power guy
100 th is earning $12.03 ssd a day lets say it is a 40watt a th unit that is 96 kwatts
2 s17 profits
100th $12.03 -6.00 = 6.03 profit at 6 cent power
100th $12.03 -5.00 = 7.03 profit at 5 cent power
100th $12.03 -4.00 = 8.03 profit at 4 cent power
100th $12.03 -3.00 = 9.03 profit at 3 cent power
100th $12.03 -2.00 = 10.03 profit at 2 cent power
8 s9's set to 80watts
100th $12.03 - 12.00 = 3 cents profit at 6 cent power
100th $12.03 - 10.00 = 2.03 profit at 5 cent power
100th $12.03 - 8.00 = 4.03 profit at 4 cent profit this means all my s9's are back in profit
100th $12.03 - 6.00 = 6.03 profit at 3 cent profit
100th $12.03 - 4.00 = 8.03 profit at 2 cent power.
these charts show a lot of gear being turned back on at 6600 price.
100th $12.03 -1.00 = 11.03 profit
The network wasn't congested at all at that time:
We had 13 blocks in an hour, more than twice, the mempool was already dried up.
Of course, ironically, as I'm typing this the block is about 30 minutes late, we're already on 41 minutes late
. And I doubt we will see any congestion soon after all Coinbase is finally batching transactions.
As for the diff, any bets? Mine is from 5% to 7.5% up. Also, I'm willing to bet I'll be off by at least 10%
Quote
623003 2020-03-26 10:55 F2Pool 1,482 1,817.143
623002 2020-03-26 10:43 BTC.com 481 611.346
623001 2020-03-26 10:41 Poolin 212 214.741
623000 2020-03-26 10:41 F2Pool 1 0.366
622999 2020-03-26 10:41 F2Pool 1 0.366
622998 2020-03-26 10:41 AntPool 43 79.943
622997 2020-03-26 10:40 Poolin 1,740 853.724
622996 2020-03-26 10:40 F2Pool 1,518 1,879.421
622995 2020-03-26 10:24 BTC.com 967 399.042
622994 2020-03-26 10:20 Unknown 1,523 757.777
622993 2020-03-26 10:12 Poolin 1,550 1,437.050
622992 2020-03-26 10:05 ViaBTC 558 420.488
622991 2020-03-26 10:03 Poolin 1,719 942.959
623002 2020-03-26 10:43 BTC.com 481 611.346
623001 2020-03-26 10:41 Poolin 212 214.741
623000 2020-03-26 10:41 F2Pool 1 0.366
622999 2020-03-26 10:41 F2Pool 1 0.366
622998 2020-03-26 10:41 AntPool 43 79.943
622997 2020-03-26 10:40 Poolin 1,740 853.724
622996 2020-03-26 10:40 F2Pool 1,518 1,879.421
622995 2020-03-26 10:24 BTC.com 967 399.042
622994 2020-03-26 10:20 Unknown 1,523 757.777
622993 2020-03-26 10:12 Poolin 1,550 1,437.050
622992 2020-03-26 10:05 ViaBTC 558 420.488
622991 2020-03-26 10:03 Poolin 1,719 942.959
We had 13 blocks in an hour, more than twice, the mempool was already dried up.
Of course, ironically, as I'm typing this the block is about 30 minutes late, we're already on 41 minutes late
. And I doubt we will see any congestion soon after all Coinbase is finally batching transactions.As for the diff, any bets? Mine is from 5% to 7.5% up. Also, I'm willing to bet I'll be off by at least 10%
four second gap between 622,999 and 623,000 so a small amount of fees makes sense as time to fit them was 4 seconds. still would think there was a few tx ids
i wonder how long the time gap was between block 622,999 and 622,998
kano has done some good info on really fast blocks . i am pretty sure he posted some 1 or 2 or 3 second block stats and while they did not have a ton of tx ids they had some.
maybe he can post up some info on this.
i wonder how long the time gap was between block 622,999 and 622,998
kano has done some good info on really fast blocks . i am pretty sure he posted some 1 or 2 or 3 second block stats and while they did not have a ton of tx ids they had some.
maybe he can post up some info on this.
Now we need to see if this big drop in diff hurts price.
Back in dec 2018 we had some price chase diff movement.
not the typical diff chases price.
Back in dec 2018 we had some price chase diff movement.
not the typical diff chases price.
623,000 F2Pool 1 366 366 1,464 0.00000000 12.5 + 0.00000000 BTC 2020-03-26 10:41:43
https://btc.com/00000000000000000007f1e007a4a71f991981f060cd2c3978d1e4a42ca30139
622,999 F2Pool 1 366 366 1,464 0.00000000 12.5 + 0.00000000 BTC 2020-03-26 10:41:39
https://btc.com/0000000000000000000a078deebc4a2dccdb1b30efefb027b75cd7e13bc620af
is this the return of them mining empty blocks when the network is congested?
Shocking tbh...
Now we need to see if this big drop in diff hurts price.
Back in dec 2018 we had some price chase diff movement.
not the typical diff chases price.
Back in dec 2018 we had some price chase diff movement.
not the typical diff chases price.
2 blocks left to go we will be right near -15.9%
2009 blocks are gone so far and 7 more to go, block time average for this round is 11.6 minutes, so 7*11.6 = 81.2 minutes, based on that we will actually adjust on Wed (Today as far EST is concerned) at about 11:10pm.
There you have it.
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com
Latest Block: 622944 (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 153.5300% (1 / 0.65 expected, 0.35 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 13912524048945.91XXXXXXX
Current Pace: 153.5300% (1 / 0.65 expected, 0.35 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 13912524048945.91XXXXXXX
That's a neat drop if you ask me, happened at 10:50pm EST, 20 minutes faster than my estimates, that's way too-off on a scale of 7 blocks
, goes out to show the diff is really hard to predict.
2 blocks left to go we will be right near -15.9%
coins are 6679
pool.viabtc will shift from
0.00001520 btc a th
to
0.00001690? btc a th
16% swing is a lot for me
2 ph will earn a lot more each day.
we are now at 13.9. vs 16.5
pretty nice drop.
coins are 6679
pool.viabtc will shift from
0.00001520 btc a th
to
0.00001690? btc a th
16% swing is a lot for me
2 ph will earn a lot more each day.
we are now at 13.9. vs 16.5
pretty nice drop.
We may not adjust on Wed we may adjust on Thur at 1 or 2 in the morning. (eastern standard time) diff is past -16%
2009 blocks are gone so far and 7 more to go, block time average for this round is 11.6 minutes, so 7*11.6 = 81.2 minutes, based on that we will actually adjust on Wed (Today as far EST is concerned) at about 11:10pm.
Meanwhile, I have got one 1*S17 pro + 1*S17+ 1*T17e + 1*T17 (214th) that are not hashing because of the voltage regulator, my diagnoses so far tell me it's the MCB on that regulator that needs replacement, I drove there earlier only to inspect it, I had to no time to actually change it, I don't even have a spare MCB (a bad mistake, lesson learned) and shops here are forced to close pretty early, so I have to wait until the morning, go grab an MCB head to the small farm and pray it's only the MCB that needs replacement.
I remembered our talk about "not being able to visit your miners when needed due to the virus", will luckily we are not on a complete shut-down / quarantine so I can still manage to go check on them despite the fact that it's hard to fill gas for the car nowadays, and I am also sure this won't last long, pretty soon I won't be able to go there anymore, so my plan is to fix that voltage regulator, set the S17 pros and 1*Whatsminer m21s on low power mode (less power = less heat and less potential issues), I also think I am over-loading one of the regulators so I might actually un-plug one T17 42th and bring it home, so if I can squeeze it here, if not then it can sit here until this virus is health with.
times like this, you wish you had your miners in the basement with all the replacements/spares you may need
We may not adjust on Wed we may adjust on Thur at 1 or 2 in the morning. (eastern standard time) diff is past -16%
I have noticed that large diff drops can cause price pressure.
Ie price chases diff vs diff chasing price.
So if we drop 16% in about 12 hours I expect price to drop under 6,000 within 2 days.
I am hoping it is a wrong assumption.
I have noticed that large diff drops can cause price pressure.
Ie price chases diff vs diff chasing price.
So if we drop 16% in about 12 hours I expect price to drop under 6,000 within 2 days.
I am hoping it is a wrong assumption.
The dow dropped to 18591
so feb 20 price 29,219 would mean -36.37%
and feb 24 price 27,960 would mean -33.50%
gold price went up to 1670
feb 24 price was 1682 that means -0.71 %
silver price went up to 13.92
feb 24 price was 18.87 that means -26.23%
Platinum price went up to 693
feb 24 price was 975 that means -28.92%
btc went up to 6739
feb 24 price was 9588 that means -29.71 % but when diff moves 15% the figures for miners not holders will be.
6739 x 1.15 = 7749/9588 = -19.17%
So the trend is leave stocks go to metals and BTC to protect assets.
Gold is king -0.71%
BTC ,Silver and platinum are between -26.23 and -29.71%
BTC will get a nice boost for miners on wed the 25th when diff moves -15%
Rich people made a lot of money/asset moves since feb 20. They have less faith in stocks then in metals and cryptocoins.
so feb 20 price 29,219 would mean -36.37%
and feb 24 price 27,960 would mean -33.50%
gold price went up to 1670
feb 24 price was 1682 that means -0.71 %
silver price went up to 13.92
feb 24 price was 18.87 that means -26.23%
Platinum price went up to 693
feb 24 price was 975 that means -28.92%
btc went up to 6739
feb 24 price was 9588 that means -29.71 % but when diff moves 15% the figures for miners not holders will be.
6739 x 1.15 = 7749/9588 = -19.17%
So the trend is leave stocks go to metals and BTC to protect assets.
Gold is king -0.71%
BTC ,Silver and platinum are between -26.23 and -29.71%
BTC will get a nice boost for miners on wed the 25th when diff moves -15%
Rich people made a lot of money/asset moves since feb 20. They have less faith in stocks then in metals and cryptocoins.
Quote from: https://www.bitdeer.com/info/1552
Rules for the Acceleration Return Plan
The Acceleration Return Plan ( https://www.bitdeer.com/en/pricing?id=1 ) uses more effective product design as well as lower fees to help users recover their mining investment rapidly and actively respond to changes in market trends.
Standard of Return
Within the term of this plan, the return standard is defined as the accumulated mining revenue from the mining pool minus the paid electricity fee, settled daily on UTC+0. If the calculation amount is less than the principal (computing power fee), it is defined as not return and the earnings distribution follows phase 1. If the calculation amount is equal or greater than the principal, it is defined as has returned and the earnings distribution follows phase 2. Once phase 2 trigged, the earning distribution will follow phase 2.
Phase 1:
Users get all the net earnings during this period.
Phase 2:
Users and BitDeer calculate the earnings on a daily basis (UTC+0) and follow the fixed proportion to distribute the net earnings. Please check the proportion in the order summary page. The daily net earnings = daily mining revenue - daily electricity fee. If the calculation is negative, BitDeer will not involve in the earning distribution.
Tips for electricity fee payment
BitDeer offers a flexible payment mechanism for electricity fees so that users can select the best payment strategy in the context of price fluctuation. Even if the daily earnings are less than the electricity fee, users can also continue to mine the cryptocurrency in an improving market environment.
Description of mining outputs
The daily mining outputs are made variable by two factors including the mining difficulty and the operation and management level of mining equipment. The first factor is unpredictable and uncontrollable, but BitDeer can always deploy the most sophisticated dispatching technology and make the utmost effort to guarantee the operation of our data center at its best capacity.
Notice:
1. The daily mining output is calculated in USD at 0 AM, UTC+0.
2. Rules for exchange rate settlement:
The mining plan in the earning distribution rule involves the computing of users’ cumulative income in fiat currency. The weighted average result of the BTC-USDT price is sampled from seven leading exchanges (Bitstamp, Bittrex, Coinbase Pro, Gemini, Kraken, Itbit and LMAX Digital) at 0 AM, UTC+0.
3. BitDeer reserves the right of final interpretation.
The Acceleration Return Plan ( https://www.bitdeer.com/en/pricing?id=1 ) uses more effective product design as well as lower fees to help users recover their mining investment rapidly and actively respond to changes in market trends.
Standard of Return
Within the term of this plan, the return standard is defined as the accumulated mining revenue from the mining pool minus the paid electricity fee, settled daily on UTC+0. If the calculation amount is less than the principal (computing power fee), it is defined as not return and the earnings distribution follows phase 1. If the calculation amount is equal or greater than the principal, it is defined as has returned and the earnings distribution follows phase 2. Once phase 2 trigged, the earning distribution will follow phase 2.
Phase 1:
Users get all the net earnings during this period.
Phase 2:
Users and BitDeer calculate the earnings on a daily basis (UTC+0) and follow the fixed proportion to distribute the net earnings. Please check the proportion in the order summary page. The daily net earnings = daily mining revenue - daily electricity fee. If the calculation is negative, BitDeer will not involve in the earning distribution.
Tips for electricity fee payment
BitDeer offers a flexible payment mechanism for electricity fees so that users can select the best payment strategy in the context of price fluctuation. Even if the daily earnings are less than the electricity fee, users can also continue to mine the cryptocurrency in an improving market environment.
Description of mining outputs
The daily mining outputs are made variable by two factors including the mining difficulty and the operation and management level of mining equipment. The first factor is unpredictable and uncontrollable, but BitDeer can always deploy the most sophisticated dispatching technology and make the utmost effort to guarantee the operation of our data center at its best capacity.
Notice:
1. The daily mining output is calculated in USD at 0 AM, UTC+0.
2. Rules for exchange rate settlement:
The mining plan in the earning distribution rule involves the computing of users’ cumulative income in fiat currency. The weighted average result of the BTC-USDT price is sampled from seven leading exchanges (Bitstamp, Bittrex, Coinbase Pro, Gemini, Kraken, Itbit and LMAX Digital) at 0 AM, UTC+0.
3. BitDeer reserves the right of final interpretation.
Bold is all that matters : Translation = "we can say fuck you"
I looked at this carefully. I can buy 100 th for 864 and 60 days of power for 231 total cost is 1095.
or pay 2900 + 200 + 700 = 3800 to own a 110 machine outright.
Now if they were not stone cold thieves and gave you the ability to buy 360 days of power at 1380 along with 864 for grand total of 2244 I would argue that it could be worth while.
since you get 100th for 360 days with power cost included for 2244. They will not guarantee this and cancel contract if btc tanks or soars.
I had a lucrative contract with them back in feb 2017 and when btc soared they cancelled the contract in Nov 2017.
There is a huge chance they will simply take the money you paid them and not mine at all just buy coins with the cash you give them and pay them back over time.
Simply cancel contract due to whatever reason they choose. if btc shifts in price. a 360 day contract with 60 days power is 1095 in btc that is .166 btc right now. add .035 and you are at .201 btc for 120 days of the contract and power cost.
They simply hold that until may 20 and slowly pay 0.0008 a day back to you on may 20 I need to check this again tomorrow
120 days later that is 0.096 they cancel contract for a bs reason 0.105 profit. they never purchased any gear at all.
if you keep mining to day 240 you will need to give them a grand total of .271 btc get paid 0.192 they make 0.079 btc
just by holding your btc.
This is flat price flat diff calculation.
lastly if you go 360 contract is dead. 0.0008 x 360 = 0.288 paid back in btc but you gave them .341 btc
I figured the ½ ing in as a starting point.
So if we stay flat you lose 0.053 btc at 6600 = 350 usd loss
It is not impossible to turn a profit but it is very difficult. you would need to pay in .166 btc now worth 1095
wait till may 20 to start getting coin. BTC needs to whale like a mofo. unreal 20 k 30 k then your power cost in btc drops but diff will go up.
so I can't quite figure a case that works exactly in your favor. but just hold the .166 chances are more then 90% it will do better then if you buy the contract.
I am a bit tired maybe I missed something but I do not think so.
Why not turn off a piece of gear that is losing a little right now.
But when the 15% diff change happens turn it on>
If a m10 is losing 25 cents a day right now
it would be making money once the 15% jump happens.
But when the 15% diff change happens turn it on>
If a m10 is losing 25 cents a day right now
it would be making money once the 15% jump happens.
My "worst that can happen" scenario was not about the next retarget but if we go through the halving with this. Of course, with a diff drop, you will earn a bit more, the hash jumps again, you lose again...but those ups and downs won't shield you from a 50% drop at the halving if you're that tight on the income/expenses line.
Now, that said, I seriously don't know what game bitdeer is playing and I really don't understand any of this..no f clue!
Frist the new "acceleration plan": https://www.bitdeer.com/zh/info/1552
How this is even good for you when: 3. BitDeer reserves the right of final interpretation ...lol
Second, their plans say:
Quote
Estimated start date is 2020/05/20
What the hell is happening?
They have sold 60% of the packages they will put to hash in 2 months? No, I can't believe it, say what you want but no, unless they have only 10 plans and they sold 6, no, I'm not going to believe it.And this will happen one week after the halving? Common!
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