Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 28. (Read 14620 times)

You are confusing life expectancy to health, these numbers would make sense if people were dying only because of their health status which is not the case because you can live a 100 years, half of them with health issues.

The virus does not care about your life expectancy or age, it cares about your current health condition.

It might be hard for someone who has not lived around Chinese people (I did for years) to imagine how freaking healthy they are, old grandmothers there perform a lot of physical work that women in their middle age in the west find hard to do.

In my country, people start to "wear out" at the age of 60-70, my grandmother (mom's side) couldn't even stand up for years before she died, she lived for nearly a 95 years, but in the last  decade or a bit more of her life, her health was condition was terrible, on the other hand, my Chinese landlord was in her late 80s and she could walk all day long, she was even going to school at that age, this is not just a simple example on a very small scale, it's my wide observation based on years, we eat croissant and Nutella for breakfast, they eat rice and drink green tea (without sugar), so one could imagine, I have not looked at the "statistics online" but if you ask anyone who lived long enough in both sides of the world, they will probably tell you the exact same thing.


This does concern me as far as the following difficulty adjustment is concerned, a 15% drop will make a lot of gears profitable again and we might not have another drop for the following 2 weeks, the price also seems to be recovering as we approach the adjustment.

Why not turn off a piece of gear that is losing a little right now.

But when the 15% diff change happens turn it on>

If a m10 is losing 25 cents a day right now

it would be making money  once the 15% jump happens.

The death and economic destruction has never happened in the last 100 years.

One could argue the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu  was close to this maybe worse but no one is left that can talk to us about that. It was world wide it killed  a lot of people.  I would argue the economic damage may have been less then this disease will cause. Time how we survive this as a world not as a country since this clearly shows borders mean nothing to it.

Good to hear everything is working out for the better. Friday I'm out of self-isolation, my kid has worn me out, even when I come to the forum I need time to concentrate before reading and replying. If someone thinks that while staying at home you have more time to be online, it's the opposite with a small child!!!


Hihi, it might be pizza and pasta but Italy has a life expectancy at 83.4, US at 78.9 and China at 76.7. God knows why the difference in deaths and cases is coming from....he or the devil.


Yeah, how many bullets or gas tanks could you buy in Mad Max with 50 mbit?  

Now, since we're on speculation and talking about survival, this is one thing that scares me.. among a thousand others . There are maybe 15Exhash of miners turned down. If the price doesn't recover till the halving, those will be permanently shut down as it makes zero sense to turn them off now and turn them back again, for what? On top of that, we have probably a few hundred Ph that was turned off but replace by newer gear.

So, doomsday scenario, 20Exhash of miners that are currently being sold at a discount, and you don't have to wait 100 days for delivery, probably even more if we consider all the gear that was turned already off and on sale.

Now, the halving comes. We have more efficient gear, there are miners who will be able to take a hit and survive (like someone here who has dirt cheap dirty ower   ) but we might still experience a drop in the hash. I doubt it will be 50%, I think it's impossible no matter how you play with numbers but another 15% is doable.

Till now, nobody could muster that amount of power unless he had his own factory, but right now it will be cheap as hell and available. I don't care that much about the price, I think that a slow growth based on usage and demand is the best way but really right now, I think we need to double before the halving or for the first time ever bitcoin might be in a really vulnerable position.

Hope it's just my mind playing tricks on me.

I dont like the death that the disease is causing now but I feel its an eye opener for everyone in the world to know where to put there money when the pandemic is over. How interesting to see some find bitcoin as safe haven for money when the demand for fiat rose in past weeks. They will like the wisest one in the room. The world will now appreciate the durability and portability of digital coin in a more vulnerable world. It is believed that the pandemic will cause a permanent change in our lifestyle and crypto could be one. At the end of the year survivor that held on to there coin will be richer after wealth had changed so many hands.

Mining BTC is actually a plus, it generates income, holding gold or even BTC for that matter does not generate a passive income as long as it's the price is going down.

on a side note, silver is valued mainly by production and not due to people investing in it, unlike Gold and BTC people buy them because for speculation even if they don't really use them.


1744 blocks down, 272 blocks to go, nothing really can happen to change these estimations, so 14% to 16% is almost out of the question, it's a relief to me, I hope we don't get any spikes in the hashrate when profitability increases in 2 days, mining at 14T diff for a month or two would be really good.

Good luck to all the miners in the days to come. The backbone of Bitcoin.

and we are at -15.2%

309 blocks off pace

our 2ph  will get a boost equivalent to 300th of new gear.

we could use this.  price has flattened around 6k.

"gold is at        1526    down from 1682   on feb 24 .............................................................. - 9.27% drop
silver is at      12.88   down from 18.87  on feb 24 ..............................................................  - 31.75% drop
platinum is at   637    down from  975    on feb 24 ..............................................................  - 34.67% drop

dow jones is at 19173 down from 29,219 on feb 20  and from 27,960 on feb 24 ....................... -34.38% or -31.43%  depends on date used

btc is at  6275  down from  9588 on feb 24 .......................................................................... -34.56% drop  but  miners will be getting a 15% boost in 2 days  so for miners the 34.56% drop  will reduce to 24.73%"  source was yahoo search results for prices

making it better then silver, platinum and the dow jones, but worse then gold.

I think this trend will hold over the coming months.

PLEASE NOTE ALL THE WEALTH STORES OTHER THEN GOLD DROPPED 31-35%

with BTC  this is going to be mitigated via diff adjustment.

Please understand this is all new territory for us. Worldwide.

I guess if a lot of meteors a really large amount of them struck all over the planet causing damage everywhere it would match this.
Of course that example would mean they were big and all over the place but not too big as to kill us all. ie a world wide issue.
This disaster is bad, but if the illness spread like it does and had a really high kill rate say 35% it would have truly been fucked up.

MY state of New Jersey is up to 1914  a solid third place number
MY birth state of New York is up to 16,887  first place.

"Top five states

New York......      16,887
Washington ......   1,996
New Jersey........   1,914
California..........   1,468
Illinois.............    1,049

OF NOTE:

Texas ............   334 "    SEEMS TOO LOW  note sourced from cnn statpage on internet.

---

ON A PERSONAL  note:  whatever  my wife and I got back around dec 25- Jan 16  seems to have left me entirely and my wife still has some coughing .

We are not going to the Lung doctor for her this week  due to corona-v fears doctor asked us to self isolate.

I take her temp 3 times a day
I take her blood O2 levels 3 times a day

her temps are good
her O2 levels  are hitting 96,97,98    vs  92,93,94
mine are also better.

Finally  my wife's first cousin is a nurse on Long Island, New York.  she is over 60   she is recovering from corona-v  her husband is  still sick from corona-v.

So to all be careful especially if you are a smoker or a vaper as  a link  to vaping and getting really sick from corona-v seems to be happening. At any age.

I can tell you why, you see a good amount of people (30% if  IIRC) need to be in the ICU (intensive care units) or they will die to the CoronaVirus.

China did a great job in quarantining infected cities, built a hospital with a capacity of about 1000 ICUs, and never stopped provding more, so the case was most of the time as follows:

ICUs+ Doctors+Nurses => Infected with people who need ICU = low death rate.

In Italy on the other side, and because they failed to apply a good quarantine, and because they don't even have 10% of the production capacity China has it was:

ICUs+ Doctors+Nurses < Infected with people who need ICU = high death rate.

And Italy has a better ICU per capita ratio than most other countries, so if the virus spreads as fast as it did in Italy due to lack of quick quarantine in another country, we will sadly see worse death rate than in Italy.

For an example, it says here the U.S has 2.8 bed per 1000 people, assuming they are not rushing to add more now, then many people will die not just due to the virus, but rather the lack of health care and the problem with these ICUs, a patient doesn't stay for a day or two, they might need to stay in for days, so if you have 50 beds in your city, no more than 150 people can get sick per say a week because nearly 3rd of them might need to be in the ICU and that is exactly 50, say 51 people need ICU, and 1 person will be at great risk, that is the exact reason why governments quarantine us, not because they think they can keep us safe from the virus forever, but because we need to slow the rate of infected people so that we can give them the intensive care they need until a vaccine has been found.

So really,  your chances of survival, when hit by the virus (especially if you are old or have some health issues), depend almost ENTIRELY on how many ICUs are available at your city and how many people get sick at the same time as you do.

the above information is not my speculations or own findings, it was explained to me by a doctor or else I would have never thought about it this way, obviously, the governments don't tell us all the details because they don't want to 1-scare us and 2- knowing that all you have in your city is 10 or 20 ICUs makes you think the health care program your government has always promoted is far worse than less developed countries and that will cause problems to the government because the people will protest against them.

Also, the death rate has to do the health of individual and lifestyle, the Chinese have a very good diet, a lot of vegetables, rice and seeds, Italians eat a lot of pasta and pizza, the U.S diet is even worse, basically, all of our diets suck big time compared to the Chinese.

Frod: sorry for going off-topic here, those are great public information that every miner can make use of.

Meanwhile, back to difficulty.


we are starting to go flat, 2 days for the next adjustment, fingers crossed that we do hit -15%.

USA fifty states 50 sets of rules.  My state New Jersey has shut down a lot but not all stores.

I stocked my house 🏡.

Toilet paper
paper towel 🧻

eggs
cheeses
frozen veggies.
potatoes
sweet potatoes
i have air filters
i have water filters
i have some vodka
i have some rye
i have a generator that uses propane
i have propane
i have soap.

many stores are shut.
gas stations
super markets
drug stores are open.

and we are still running busses 🚎 and trains 🚞

my issue with the chinese numbers are not that 80,000 got sick .  the death 💀 rate seems very low compared to Italy death rate. not sure how this can be so different.

Back to difficulty. I am sitting in my house mining as I type. This seems to mean pow coins will come back better then many may think.

I see a second smaller drop in diff. then flatness for two months.

assuming all out brilliant world leaders don’t do something clever.  note 📝 sarcasm to the max.

F) China has great discipline. They closed everything, went full quarantine for few weeks and isolated the virus. That being said, Italy is getting stomped by virus and they are still not cancelling their Bus/Metro transportation let alone thinking about full lock-down.

Meanwhile even in Serbia (with much less cases of Corona), we are only able to move out of house between 5 AM and 5 PM and all transportation is cancelled, all borders are locked and there is no import/export unless it is extremely necessary. As of next week, we might be in full quarantine (no moving out of house) and that will not be fun at all.

Yeah if you look at Chinese numbers and Italy numbers something is wrong.
So
A) china is lying
B) italy is lying
C) China has great medical
D) italy has terrible medical

E) China has a vaccine and vaccinated most of the people in china thus they have great numbers

F)  something I missed.

Not liking letter e very much.

Below needs research.

Oh trump's import tariff war is a very likely cause of mask shortages in the USA.
As companies may have been doing multiple small orders to beat the 25% tax.

I order miners one at at time to beat trump tax legally.  I wonder if people did smaller mask orders  last year to beat the trump tax.

Anyone want to research if masks were subject to import taxes.

What does this translate to diff wise.  a 13-14% drop in 3 days.  I predict a 5-7% drop next jump

if prices stay in 5000-6500 range.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get another drop next epoch as well. I think the media here (USA) is over-hyping the virus, but if half of what I'm reading is true then we will be dealing with the fallout of the virus for a long time.  Some studies have shown the R0 of the virus is between 2 and 3, which means it is way more contagious than the flu and all the measures going into place are only going to slow down the spread, not prevent it. Some experts are saying it is likely 60% of the world population will get infected before we're done with it.

China reporting 0 new cases ... people really believe that? I don't believe any information coming from the Chinese government is credible. Just read an article that says 21 million cell phone accounts were canceled in China in the last 3 months, and it suggests that way way way more (like 1000X more) people have died from the virus in China than they have reported. I really feel for the Chinese people, they are paying the largest price for their government's complete and total fuck-up of the handling of the virus.

Well


a drop in hash of 15%  a drop in price to 6073

means  diff may have caught up or not.  It depends on what you think this coin is really worth.

But give me a choice of  1,000,000 in BTC at 6073   vs 1,000,000 in princess cruise line stock.  I would pick  the BTC

So the real issue for btc price is how the big boys think it protects  their wealth.

There are so many bad business models subject to interruption  from a pandemic.

BTC  is not  that subject to a pandemic based interruption.

My 2ph 11gh mine can be run by 1 person alone and self isolated  it earns about 1 btc a month.

The drop may seem like a lot, but if you compare it to the very near past you can see a few interesting stuff.



https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/hashrate-price-btc.html#6m

dashed-line = price
line = hashrate

We are now at 85E diff and 6.2k price, the last time we had this hashrate was 3 months ago, Dec of 2019, the price was 7.2k, the only difference now is that more efficient gears are in the game and prices don't seem to be stable nor going to the upside, so it's very likely that we see more decline in the hashrate, with just 52 days to the halving it's highly unlikely that we go up from here, there may be a few newbies or risk-takers who will join now, but I guess those will hardly maintain the current hashrate, let alone taking it to a higher level.

I think China will play a major rule in the recovery of the market and not the opposite, China has officially defeated the spread of the Coronavirus and they seem to be slowly returning to business, this is what the numbers suggest and my Chinese friends also confirmed it, so China was the first the to get into trouble and the first to come out, I am counting big time on the Chinese to actually lead the recovery, I hope other countries manage to defeat the virus as fast, that will not only save the economy but will save a lot of lives.

Phill, we are right at what I expected 6 days ago.

well lets face it.  first off none of us know if this will be a 1918/1919 spanish flu pandemic or worse.

Things become complex if the kill rate gets really high.  No matter what country you live in or what side you are on left right capitalist socialist no one likes friends and loved ones dying off.

So you get multiple levels of :

2 billion ill 40 million dead

all the way down to

10 million ill 100000 dead.

and anything in-between.

For me to say  I know how bad the illness will be I have no real clue.

For me to say maybe me and my wife already caught it around new years eve due to the 10 boxes of miners that came to the house from dec 6 to jan 6 Maybe.

Packages were in china   and then in my house in under 36 hours a few times.

For me to argue right now the world has no known antibody test for us to take and this costs all of us $$$ is true.

For instance lets say me and my wife had it along with 100000 others in New Jersey USA  that is 100,000 people that should not be told to stay home.

Yet  no one mentions an antibody test being developed why?  The value of this test is huge.

To be clear this is for infected unknowns that got better.   If 1 billion people are like this all of them do not need a quarantine. This should be talked about all over the world.

I can bes tested to see if I had the measles and lots of other viruses why not this one.  Do you live in China did you get sick in Nov or Dec and get better on your own?  If so and it was corona-v no quarantine needed for you.

This is a big deal yet not much time is spent on this discussion .

We will soon see what is up with the world wide quarantines it may turn out to be not so bad .  I hope so.  Then back to mining and wondering about the difficulty

I know we are in a diff topic here but the drop in hashrate seems to be confirming what I was thinking about the current economic situation that's playing out around the world and the effects this could play on bitcoin and mining with the drop coming quickly I feel we will see more of the larger farms switch off there miners I know we now have the price back up to a higher level but this could also be a  fake out to get a higher price for some of the coins that we know are locked up in china be that pools or exchanges or by the large scale miners.



If we see hyper inflation in the money system I fear  we will see many of the exchanges and other liquidity providers to the market leave and fast this could in turn cause the market to react badly.

While the small miners may have a comeback to keep things going I think we could see the good old days of P2P trading come back into play here but we could lose a lot of retail trading which in turn would cause the price to sink back.  I also think for quite  some time bitcoin has been very very over priced in the market and us who have been around over the years should have secured some liquidity to keep us going.

What are your thoughts on the downturn in hashrate and do you think China could play a massive roll in the downturn of bitcoin in general now.

Magic

yeah meant six not 3 days.

Travel 🧭
Leisure
Restaurants
Airplanes
Cruises

Make up a large segment of money earning.
No movie ticket sales
No Bars
No concerts.

If I shifted a million from princess cruise lines.
yeah maybe  some medical stocks.
but btc is a natural at self isolation.
I can create it all by myself.
I can safe keep it all by myself.
I can send it from the USA 🇺🇸 to China 🇨🇳 all by my self.

Safe from any viruses 🦠

Me like this.

China had 0 new cases today, 0 deaths and out of all 80,928 infected people 70,420 of them recovered and only 3,245 total deaths, on the other hand, Italy alone had 5,322 new cases today and 427 deaths, the total death cases is 3,405 which is actually higher than that in China despite the number of infected people.

The death rate in China = 4% , Italy = 8.2%, the Chinese did a great job fighting the virus, I highly doubt any other country would have done better and the proof is despite China being hit first, it has a pretty low death rate and now it's has the slowest growth as far as infected people are concerned.

The above adds more strength to your theory and Phill's, so Chinese investors are now ready to invest again, but in what? do they buy a cheap U.S stock? invest in medical research? buy more gold? cheap oil? or maybe they don't think the issue is over and still aren't willing to risk much? we also know the Federal bank has been printing billions of $ out of thin air the past couple days which might also have to do with the last bitcoin price spikes.

To me, the way I see it is that risk-takers are trying to get what they think of as cheap bitcoin thinking the bottom is in, the virus is getting the best of the word's economy and we are unlikely going to recover, selling pressure will start pretty soon and we may very likely make a new lower low.


More like 6 days I would guess, we are 212 blocks behind and it's getting slower, we have 708 blocks to mine, there is no way we can do that in 3 days, 5 days will be the fastest I would wish for, but that will mean less diff drop anyway.

Yep  and there are a lot of big money asians. Past the corona-v issue and trying to figure where to park their money.

Hey If I had stock in Disney, Hilton , Princess Cruise lines.  I would move it out and park it somewhere  as all those types of industries well get hit hard with worldwide curfews.

Air line stocks would be on my hit list.   So a BTC resting spot along with a cash resting spot make sense.  Or a lot  more sense then those stocks mentioned.

Logically BTC looks very good right now.  We will see a nice Diff drop in 3 days.  I hope to see coins rebound nicely as all those service companies scramble about for the next two months.

ltc  diff has moved from 6.36 to 5.15 to  4.86  this is a 23% drop in total.

btc diff is set to drop 12-13% price is 6200.