Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 30. (Read 14620 times)

Wow, is there still a country with zero cases? And with test being done? I'm in self-isolation, work from home, and it's more stressful than going out, imagine that I have to deal 24/7 with a small kid packed with energy and we can't get out of the house and let him blow it all in a park...yesterday I didn't have more than a few minutes to read the forum.


Try and stay in house, if you don't get in contact with anyone infected there is no chance of getting it. You Americans are usually more prepared with stocked things so I guess you're also.

The numbers look bad...or good, I think for the miners who can still mine.


If it takes another drop (right now price is back at 5100), the -10 and -5 you mentioned are really going to come true.

Actually it does matter as this is  a worldwide event.

My fears for myself are:

1) my wife catches it in her already weakened condition.

2)I am 63                                 =  not good.
3)I have a managed asthma       = not good.
4)I have a managed sugar issue  = not good.
 
So frankly  a worldwide disease with numbers like Italy scare me a lot.

If it goes the route of 75 days of bad numbers  most of us will recover and the world  will be a changed place.

The diff and the ½ ing will  become more important then they are today.

I did sell a bit of coin today  near 5725 price we  then dropped again to 5288.

That is highly unlikely, as Corona has spread all the way even into the hotter parts of Earth (Australia for example).

Also, it has been around 20C and more for last few days in Serbia, and it continued spreading as fast as any other country.

Also, Serbia is as of 8 hours ago in full lock down - quarantine. We are (same as Italians) not allowed to leave house unless we have written document stating that we have to (due to work or any other valid reason).

We (Serbians) are not that big part of crypto market, but I just wanted to share my current status.

I am on the same page as you  as the models suck for price going bullish.  Have to  wait and see  what develops.

Indeed, I am by no means saying that technical analysis has stronger value than pandemics, but they certainly add more insult to injury, so instead of people only selling something to survive, you got the traders taking short positions on the pair, making the drop even worse, of course, this is only what I think.


Having some of the things you mentioned above is also a great way of maintaining the value of your wealth, where I live food prices increased over 10% over 24hrs and we have 0 confirmed cases, I can only imagine that everything people need to survive will go up at least 100% in price if we get a single case confirmed, I cashed out just enough for a couple of months, slowly stacking food preparing for the worse.

Some researches suggest that higher temperatures will slow down the spreading of the coronavirus, and if that it's true I don't expect it to spread where I live because in just a few weeks we will start having long days with strong sunshine and a ton of heat, there is also a vaccine from Moderna Therapeutic that should be ready "for human testing as early as April" according to this article, so let's expect the worst but still hope for the best.

Price formulas for any market are not much good here. Not saying they are wrong or correct but they were developed over time and I don't believe world wide pandemics have ever been fully analyzed or factored in.

Last real pandemic was spanish flu in 1918-1919

Many economic models where not created at this time.  I am not sure what was.

Value of an in-house reverse osmosis filter =  bigger due to pandemic
Value of an in-house air filter = bigger due to pandemic.
Value of a home = bigger as you can store a lot of food in it.

Value of all cash. less  why?  food  + water cost more.
value of all crypto coins less why? need cash for food and water.
Value of a ventilator system = really high if you got corona-v.

Possible bad shit to come .

China and Korea relax quarantines corona-v  crest with a second higher wave.   This most likely is what is scaring big money guys.

If China and Korea relax the curfews and a second wave starts back it means all the world needs to do a long curfew.

What happens if the world needs to be on lock down for 90 days.  This will bury most markets of all kinds all over the world.

It will be a shit has hit the fan mess that no one has ever really seen before.

We are 76 blocks behind and still have a long way to go till the adjustment, and I highly doubt any major corrections to the upside until the difficulty adjustment takes place, so my guess is a drop of between 12% to 15% is imminent, we have a few hours for the weekly close and so far it seems like we closing below the critical 200MA on the weekly chart which is a very bad sign that suggests a lower-low than 3.2k, my guess is 2.6k in a few weeks before the market recovers, however, before heading south we might have a few days of price bouncing up so if difficulty drops 15% i think you will still be able to mine a little more with the S9s but most likely not for long.

I set the clifton mine up with the crash possibility in mind.

I did a blend of efficient miners s17pros and power hungry miners. s9s

the 14 s17pros do 770th
the 31 s9s do.       320th.

we have a mix of

whatsminer
m10
m20
m21
about 200th at 60watts

inno

t2t24
t3t39
t3t50
about 100th at 60watts

avalon
a1041
a1066

about 160th at 60watts

we can turn off all the s9s and mine on.
this was the plan on the 1/2 ing

I actually hope we get -10% diff and then -5% diff

Diff projection still heading down, the estimate is now sitting at -8.5%. At least it will be a good shakeout. For many miners that were on the cusp and barely profitably this was enough to motivate them to shut down now. Maybe many of those were trying to hold out until the halving and this got them out early. More BTC for those of us who are sticking it out for the long haul...

Based on the price of 5300 we should get over a 10% drop

I have 4 accounts

one has 41th at 80 watts a th  certainly dead but power is paid til march 31 = dead

one has 550th on high at 42 watts a th I get a 10% fee to manage it. = good

one has  1430 th mixed gear 300th is s9 they will be shut down soon rest is pretty good 40 to 60 watts a th

one has  11gh of ltc  which is hanging in there as no threat of ½ ing exists. = good

So I will be ending the s9's very soon.  340th hash to  go by by.

since this is the situation we are okay for the ½ ing after that ?

A lot depends on how long we can mine after the ½ ing

My hope is to stick at this until Aug 1

We can shut the s9's off and down clock everything else  it will help with this shit $5300.00 usd price.

Yeah  prediction the 2 week diff is doable and you can kind of stretch to 26 days  with comfortable accuracy.

The money has been in finding the flat spots.

None of this counts as 1918-1919 spanish flu was the last true world wide disaster

20 million of 1.2 billion died world wide.

If we match that  it would be 140 million of 8.4 billion  I don't think it will do this.

I do think  400,000 will with 12,000 dead will be topped if we are lucky.

This is cause fear  in my opinion as a terror state or individual  could  morph a virus like this  and get the big numbers.

This is a funky virus 1 death in all people under 10.  A newborn  who had  a very ill mother is the only person under 10 to die.

As a designer weapon  this virus is very close to perfect.

Just think if you make one that  is easy to catch  kills only  over 10 years old.

and you have 1.2 billion catch it with  200 million dead.

You vaccinate your people then unleash the virus.

Bam a classic James Bond villain could do it.  Very frightening for us to see it this close to being true.

We are very  close to it being a real possibility.

Most people are mulling this idea over as now possible on some level thus the terrible markets all over.

My wife is hanging in there

post nasal drip
hacking cough  with  stuff coming up = this is good. means not corona-v
no fever = this is good not corona-v

But due to the pneumonia in early jan she has  sensitivity lungs kind of like asthma or bronchitis .

Keys are no fever and  when she coughs stuff comes up  really hoping this gets better soon.

Years ago she worked only ½ from world trade center.  She did have a cough and drip from that. She wore high end n100 mask as she walked to work and her building had very good air filters.

That did not become pneumonia but it lasted until spring of  2002.

Take care Mr. and Mrs. Philipma1957  . Hope everything is going better.

@mikeywith , as Philipma1957 said, blockchain sucks at predicting the hashrate, they are using a 2x12 hours interval for it, but luck makes the whole thing unreliable. Look at the last days: https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days. 119,97,124,102. Hard to believe they are pulling out and in 20% of the hash rate each day.

Meanwhile,


not going to even try to make a prediction, the whole scene is a mess anything can happen.

Over at bitdeer:

S19Pro:


S17Pro , this one is a disaster

Yeah We are hoping maybe two three weeks and it will be gone.

I need to keep her Isolated as much as I can as adding corona-v to what ever she has would not be a good thing.

House is stocked with food and we try to stay home as much as we can.

Get well soon Mrs Philipma1957.

Up and down charts like blockchain  do have a luck factor.  Smaller 1  or 2 or 3 hour  samples  can be way off by just 2 really long blocks.

Don't try to do short time periods variance is truly difficult to get rid of.

Ie  base the hash on the time it takes to do the next block >  A 30 minute block  will then show the network at  - 67%

I push these 2 week threads  for a few reasons.  Once diff sets on day on it is a known for 14 days.  Plus on day 10 or 12  of those 14 days you have a good idea of the next jump.  So you kind of get to do a decent 28 day time slot for the diff over and over.

Fuck that  with price it is simply impossible as price can change every 10 seconds  which is 6 per minute or 360 each hour.

that  is 360 x 24 x 14 = 120,960 moves in 2 weeks.   Vs 1 move in 2 weeks and a good clue on the next move 12 days into the diff.

Way easier to work with.

We are in times that have not been seen since the Spanish Flu  in 1918-1919   20 million died out of 1.2 billion back then.

That is not going to happen here. But a new flu/virus that spreads like wild is really scary to all humanity.

Thus price is moving like mad.  If the Chinese numbers are true (lets hope they are)  this will not be that terrible.

It the Italian numbers are true it will be worse then I hope for.

Mean while  my  wife went to the doctor.  She is improving really slowly so she keeps to our home a lot. Doctors do not think she has the corona-v

but that she had a Flu become pneumonia.    It has been 76 or 77 days and not fully gone.

She has a cough and postnasal drip with some lung congestion.

VS fever cough weakness in muscles etc.

The weird part about all this mess is the total hashrate, we are back to 124 from a low of 97.xx, the current hashrate is actually higher than it was a week ago when bitcoin was trading at $8000 or nearly double the current prices, it does not seem like miners are willing to go home, a huge amount of mining gears are probably mining at negative now hopping for a price rebound before they have to pay the bill if we go up from here then that will work out just fine but if we collapse even more, not only they would have been mining at loss, they will also have to sell whatever bitcoin hodlings they have for pretty cheap just to pay the electric bill.

I personally know a few people who don't care about prices and don't shut down their gears instantly, I, however, disagree to that approach as it carries a huge risk that can be avoided, and if you treat mining as a business you should always at worst case scenario cash out enough to pay your bills so that you don't have to sell more BTC if the price dips any lower, but that's just me, people run their business the way they see fit.

On a side note, I use https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate to monitor the current hashrate, does anyone know of a more accurate or/and faster resposnive website?

well it was a very strong drop.

I caught the bottom with a piece of my buys.

But I also purchased at 4500, 4800, 5800 along with the 3989 buy.

I would like to see it stabilized at 5k vs 7k

I rather shake people out now and not at the 1/2 ing.

Back to 5.5k, seems like people understood what is going on

I just got some at 3999!!!  edit 3989  

I will buy more if it goes under 3.333k

I can do a few more buys then I am done.

I will buy at 3,333 then 2,999 then 2,222 after that I am done.

Or it goes up.

Phill, i am glad to see you hedged your self against old gears, it pays off in times like this, at least even if you decide to keep on mining with those old s9, you could use a portion of the profit you getting from s17pros to pay the power bill, so you are not doing bad at all.

I personally know some people who are still heavily invested in S9, they have no cash to buy the dip, they have no more effienct gear to compensate for the current lose, their only way out is to gamble against the price hopping it will rise before the bill is due,or switch off the gears.

Bitcoin is trading at 4.5k now, terrible to say the least.

The key to this crash is it needs to hold beyond the ½ ing.

That wipes out all the big time miners. As all gear is a loser at 4 cents after the ½ ing with the diff of 16 that we have.

So we could see a huge drop in the diff. If this crash holds sway and coins remain at the 4500 to 5000 level.