Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 32. (Read 14827 times)

As usual, it takes roughly 48 hours to make 99% of the predictions following bitcoin wrong! The moment I opened the difference estimator chart I was like, this is what you get for making predictions... Man, I feel stupid now  


It is still early, it's only 1.7 if we look at the minimum and it might be luck but this doesn't match any of the scenarios I put together earlier.. The only one that is still holding two droplets of water is the one with mining farms changing gear but........

The other sha256 coins don't look any better and their halving will be earlier,  putting temporarily even more pressure on BTC.Not good.

@philipma1957, are you still in the green after a halving with no price no diff change?

As much as I hate to say it but these 7700-7800 levels will shake out a lot of miners.

The Dow Jones tanked again about 1000 points back down to 23,900  this is a 14 month low last reached in Jan of 2019.

It seems BTC is under price pressure bigly.

I wonder if bitmain will use s19 pro's in-house and clear out all their in house s17 and s17 pro gear.

I know this is not a main focus of topic, but I just wanted to share my first order on official Bitmain website:



Also, I do not think that BTC price has hit the bottom for this month. However, I think it will rebound soon after another dump happens, and it will rebound hard, maybe it will even hit ATH of this year.

However, difficulty really is an odd thing, by no means does it use logic or anything close to it. However, I really hope for sake of difficulty that Antminer generation 19 will not be shipped before Jun.

Diff has finally attempted to reflect some of the huge price drops.

We are down about 4.7%

Well this corona-v meltdown  of worldwide economy  is the first big meltdown since bitcoin hit the scene in 2009 .


last  super crash was 2008.

It has bitch slapped most everything but gold.


Dow closed at 23,800
BTC is at  7870

Yup, and since the Wuhan quarantine which happened in January nothing really that bad happened to the markets, and China is actually recovering right now! When did the shit hit the fan? On the last days when Europe was hit and the whole Lombardy was sealed up! And be fair, I was talking on the effect on Bitcoin, with the price being driven by the purchasing power, remember? Not the whole economy!  

Anyhow /let's not derail this, we're in Frodo's territory here


Yeah, that would be logical, but also we don't know for sure how this rate is growing right now. It could be a lot of newbies, but I wouldn't be surprised it could simply be that farms are refitting their miners, it is also possible that bitmain has shipped a lot of new gear well before telling us they have a new miner, there might be some deals like that with other manufacturers also.

Yeah, a lot of newbies might be buying cloud contracts, but it's still 7%, that's a lot of gear that was already produced, and you don't just make those blindly..I think..assume..god knows really, that's why we're in speculation here.

One thing is clear, no matter what the current difficulty says in the first days, it's almost impossible for the grow to just stop now, the difficulty estimator went continuously up, 2% 4%, ended with 7%, and it is not going to stop unless something really bad happens, and that's one of my greatest fears. Thousands and thousands of miners that are thrown away or sold at price pe kg not hashrate.

Not sure of this conversation.  China 🇨🇳 is certainly a driving economic force in the Modern World.

Is this in reference to Trumps import tax war trying to beat China 🇨🇳.

BTW wall street  crashed so hard today they shut it down🥵

-7 % shut it down. and it was opened again moving to -5%.

True, Bitmain is a piece of shit. That's the only thing I have to say.  



This proves my point even further, the stock market, forex, oil, and gold are all driven by somehow professionals who usually end up doing the "logical" thing be it the right or the wrong move, while mining is highly effected by immatures and newbies who have no clue about anything. in fact, if anything hash rate should actually collapse and not rise, with all the mess going on, bitcoin mining is at even at worse place than everything else, the mining rewards are due to be cut in half and yet these newbies keep on adding gears to the network.  

By the way, I still remember our discussion and how you overlooked the importance of China, there you have it now, everything is collapsing because when China coughs the world MUST listen and cough along.

huge drop on the Dow

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-tumble-on-fears-of-oil-price-war-2020-03-08?mod=american-petroleum-institute

huge drop in oil

https://oilprice.com/

gold is up

https://goldprice.org/

I missed that topic somehow... That was not a thing about being sorry or feeling bad, I'm actually enraged seeing those pics, they delivered you a heap of junk!!! Yeah, nothing more to say, words can't always express all that's going on!

A new period, new start:


Well in theory, but just in theory, a slowdown would mean less energy consumed, cheaper prices, (like what's happening in oil) so IF the coins price stays up or even grows a little, miners will be affected less than other parts of the economy.

My parents are in the agriculture business, for us cheap gas (for heating) and cheaper gas (for machines) is good, people will still have to eat, the loans are paid almost 90%..so probably I'll have to leave the city and become a country boy again.

 Right now coins at 7950 and diff to go up 6.8%


ugg .

Really bad numbers.


About 6 or 7 blocks till the next jump.

Corona-V  has hit the world's economy hard.  Dow Jones  Market is set to drop 1000 point today.

It is a mess.



Bitmain sold s9's as high as 3000 in Dec 2017

S9's sold as high as 4k  on this website.

I did an escrow for them at 3500 a machine.

I may be able to 60 of them if I drive from NJ to Tennesse Next week.  Cost would be really cheap.

I paid $1600 per unit direct from Bitmain in Aug 2016.

But 20k is the most expensive package they have to offer, and that is S17pro and 1ph daily for 360 days, they have medium-size packages for an example 100th daily on the S17 pro costs exactly $3867.05 for 360 including electricity, that indeed sounds interesting to many "home miners", heck they even have plans for below $1000 for the "Young average Joe".


Sadly, Bitmain will always find their way into "tricking" newbies.  


I agree, the only difference is setting up any business needs a lot of time, planning, paperwork, rent and wife's permission:, however, with mining, it's a little bit different as the average Joe can take $500 from his parents and buy a mining plan that will supposedly make him richer in 360 days.


It was more than that, I can't recall the highest price S9 was sold for on their website, but I know it was sold it for as high as $3000 off-bitmain.


Yes, they are brand new with less than quarter the quality of the old gears at least based on my experience and everyone else that I know, I even had a whole topic advising people not to buy those gears.

7.5% is close to 7.5 ExaH/s

Let's assume everything is new

- s19pro it means ~ 68k miners if it's 3000$ then we have 210 million in gear
- s19 simple means ~80k miners, if again rumors of 2500$ again 220 million in gear

This assuming just new gear, no replacement, everything that was old is still in place. At 9K per coin it's 25k BTC, 113k BTC till the halving..

Weird, at least!

right now the s17 pro set to low speed does about 37 watts a th

project to 100 th  right now that is

13.18 for btc
12.67 for bch
12.61 for bsv

each day.

the s17 pro set to low uses just about 90 k-watts a day

at 3 cents that is  2.70 a day

13.18- 2.70 = 10.48
12.67- 2.70 =   9.97
12.61- 2.70 =   9.91

bring in the ½ ing you get

6.59   - 2.70 = 3.89
6.335 - 2.70 = 3.635
6.305 - 2.70 = 3.605

4 cent power

6.59   - 3.60 = 2.99
6.335 - 3.60 = 2.735
6.305 - 3.60 = 2.705

these are killer numbers   all gear on the market at 50 watts a th and 5 cent power would be dead

6.59 - 6.00 = 59 cents a day for 100 th that uses 5 kwatts or 120 kwatts a day at 5 cents = 6 in power.

so current price means a huge difficulty drop is coming up  at the ½ ing or not

This looks bleak hopefully short-term ....

... is it a crazy strategy....  to switch to DGB/SHA256 as a backup plan - as far as breaking even on power bill.

yes and BCH 1/2 ing is in 40 days as is BSV

BTC is    $ 0.1347    at  8547 usd      after ½ ing    0.06735
BCH is   $ 0.1314    at    305 usd      after ½ ing    0.06570
BSV is   $ 0.1315    at    217 usd      after ½ ing    0.06575

now BCH and BSV are due on  april  8 and april 10

BTC is Due May 11

gleaned that info from here.  https://explorer.viawallet.com/halving

Since BCH and BSV  come first  we should see a migrating effect giving us a clue or hint  of commitment to those coins. Over BTC.

Phil.... BCH using the scenario above will suffer too?

Coins at 8700  means 1th drops to 12 cents before power.

if 8700 at the 1/2 ing 1th will make 6 cents.

so a new s19 will earn $6.60 before power.

3300 watts is about 80 kwatts a day.

so a 3 cent guy will pay 2.40 a day

thus the machine makes 4.20 a day

if price stays at the 8700 level there will be blood 🩸 in the water 💧 after the 1/2 ing.

7.5% jump is a lot of gear.

Hihi, yeah I was trying to say something a bit different but I had to use the term "home", to make the comparison. What I was trying to highlight was the price in $, with 20k to put upfront in investment it's not the average Joe they are targeting, so just as home mining with real gear is going to become something impossible for people with median income if we continue like this, it seems cloud mining will also start to be one.

But it's normal, after the fall of the Warsaw Pact every city, every street even every block of flats had an "ISP" provider, now there are only 14 left in the country.
Mining will go the same way.


Wow! They are really desperate to sell those things. They went for nearly 1000$ in 2017-2018, if I remember correctly? And how many do they still have, or actually...are those things new? Not advertised like new, new in reality?

Meanwhile:


With 20 hours to go, 7.5% is certain.