It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 33.

mikeywith

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Quote from: stompix on March 06, 2020, 08:23:02 AM

[...]

What's even worse is that they are sold out on early-mid April batches of T17+, the new delivery date is 21-30 April, the halving should be around 11th of May, so more than likely those will be delivered AFTER the halving, this is an easy to spot "bad move" but wait for them to be sold out again in no time.

They have also dropped the lousy S9k prices to $63, and they still have the guts to sell it's PSU for $86, and make no mistake they will still sell some at those prices.

Quote from: stompix on March 06, 2020, 08:23:02 AM

If you remember our little debate about home mining and industrial mining, it seems like bitmain (bitdeer) is getting rid even of small home(lol) cloud miners...

I highly doubt that anyone besides "home and newbies" buys these cloud mining contracts anyway, if buying the gear now, mining at home with free power makes no sense at these prices - who would buy a year-long contract?

Quote from: philipma1957 on March 06, 2020, 08:30:33 AM

No there is a 300 mega watt project in Canada...

Do you mean the one in Quebec ? the news has been going on for nearly a year now, and according to this article it seems like they have canceled the plan.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

No there is a 300 mega watt project in Canada.

Looking for link.

Yeah bitmain is most likely loading up bitdeer contracts like mad.

Quote from: https://www.bitdeer.com/notice/1475?utm_source=internallink&utm_medium=bitmain&utm_campaign=fugong202002

Early Spring Benefits
Mar 2, 2020 19:00

Dear BitDeer Users,

Early spring comes, revival in all unions. BitDeer prepared multi-benefits for everyone, up to 13% privilege sending out gifts.

Event Time: March 3, 2020, 12 PM ~ March 18, 2020, 12 PM (UTC+8)

Benefit 1: Early Spring Gift Bag.
1. Login to your BitDeer account and get the early spring gift bag during the event time.
2. The gift bag contents plan extension coupons and electricity coupons, up to $2,000 in total.
3. The gift bag will be automatically issued to your account after login successfully during the event time, don’t forget to check in “My Coupons”.
4. The value is randomly giving out in the gift bag based on the user’s recent activation.

Benefit 2: Computing Power Fee Coupon
1. Purchasing the S17PRO-360D / T17-360D plan during the event, conform to the below rules and win free computing power fee coupons back, up to $4,000.
2.The computing power fee coupon can be used universally and will be issued after the event complete in 30 working days.
3.Rules to win the computing power fee coupon:

Benefit 3: Free Mining Plan
1. New registers enjoy the newcomer offer during the event.
2. Sending an email to [email protected] with your registered account to redeem the free mining plan（30-Day free trial plan with free computing power fee & Free electricity fee for the first 3 days, the other 27-day electricity fee shall be paid by customers).

BitDeer reserves the right to the final interpretation.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Update:

Quote from: TheYankeesWin! on March 05, 2020, 08:12:08 AM

This is a lot of gear. I know a plant was being built in Canada it was supposed to do 300 megawatts. Maybe they went on line.

Wasn't that Texas? It got canceled.

mikeywith

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Quote from: TheYankeesWin! on March 05, 2020, 08:12:08 AM

Yeah some will mine to a fresh address hoping to beat taxes.
So buying 10 s17+ at 1567 each does not worry them.

They still have to pay nearly 25% on taxes, no? so this is not 1567$ it is more like $2000 including shipping and handling, and for what? for a gear which they will receive right at the halving where rewards will drop drastically? I am not saying people won't do that, i am only saying it is a bad move, but some might think the opposite.

Quote from: TheYankeesWin! on March 05, 2020, 08:12:08 AM

63,000 x 3.3kw = 207900kw or 207.9 megawatts.

63,000 S19 pro = $189,000,000 assuming they cost $3000 each, that is a lot of money to be invested Shocked

TheYankeesWin!

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Yeah some will mine to a fresh address hoping to beat taxes.
So buying 10 s17+ at 1567 each does not worry them.
I do think most of this jump is bitmain cycling out some lessor gear and dropping in better gear. Or maybe a big farm went online.
A 6% jump is about 7eh
9 s19pros = 1ph
90 s19pros = 10 ph
900 s19pros = 100 ph
9000 s19pros = 1 eh
63000 s19pros = 7 eh

63,000 x 3.3kw = 207900kw or 207.9 megawatts.

This is a lot of gear. I know a plant was being built in Canada it was supposed to do 300 megawatts. Maybe they went on line.

mikeywith

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We are at a projected difficulty of

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

+4.7606% and +5.4877%

I do agree to Bitmain taking a part in this, but i think it's mostly the newbies and the greedy miners who are trying to mine as much as they can before the halving, like everything else, in mining you have a good percentage of "investors" who do things recklessly, those people add a small part to the equation that makes every rational thought inaccurate.

With bitcoin price going lower and lower, we are at nearly -40% from last year's high, the halving is due in 67 days you still see people paying nearly $2000 for an S17+ that due to ship by End of April whereby they will 'supposedly' receive it in May, right at the halving Roll Eyes

, with those people in the market, everything can happen, you see difficulty goes up when it should "logically" go down or vice versa because many people get on board with no plan, the good news is they don't last for long, the bad news is more of them will come.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Yeah most likely they have tweaked their s19 pro to do say 100th and 25watts a th.

they then sell a bitdeer contract for 100 th and charge 40 watts a th.

if they charge 6 cents a kwatt 100 th is 4 kwatts vs true 2.5 kwatts so 1.5 x 24 = 36 kwatts at 6 cents = 2.16 per machine extra profit each day.

if they sell 1eh it is 21,600 usd extra profit every day.

stompix

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Seems like it starting to grow again, this time after nearly half of the epoch done.

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Current Pace: 104.0543% (915 / 879.35 expected, 35.65 ahead)
Current Pace: between +2.8164% and +4.0620%

Bitmain and others finally shipping gear after the virus shutdown? Or are they adding gear to their own farm and simply selling contracts through bitdeer, I see a lot of options to buy hash rate on s17, they might be selling s17 hashrate and in reality, they are mining with new gear? Not something out of the ordinary when it comes to bitmain.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

We dropped about .7%

We are suffering a price drop to 9350

lastly the diff is down right now over 10% .but it is early

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

BTW if you look at the 2019 LTC charts price peaked well before the ½ ing

So I wonder if we see a huge btc price drop and of course a huge diff drop and mirror LTC from last year.

LTC peaked June 21 of 2019 at 148 usd

it dropped on July 16 of 2019 to 79 usd after that crash the diff dropped from 16.5 million on July 15 2019 to as low as 4.72 million on Dec 20, 2019

we moved up to 5.97 million as of today.

I was also looking at BCH AND BSV which can use the same gear as BTC all three tanked a bit.

TheYankeesWin!

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Price is around 9650usd

diff is at -0.25%

383 blocks to go.

So it looks flat. A nice break for any miner that is standing pat.

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

About 75 days to ½ ing

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

That is almost 10% in an hour that is big $$$ you know if we do a drop to 8500 over the next 24 hours I think the diff takes a strong hit. 8500 is pretty hurtful to all 80 watt gear.

royalfestus

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Quote from: wndsnb on February 16, 2020, 11:41:29 AM

I don't see BCH and BSV halvings making a very noticeable impact. Like mikeywith said, we're only talking 8.5eh. And how much of that is directly controlled by Roger Ver/Jihan Wu and Craig Wright and co? They are both essentially centralized since they are pretty much controlled by a few players. I wonder if now that Jihan is back in charge Bitmain is going to start requiring payment in BCH again when they release the 5nm miners...

Maybe we'll see a little diff bump.

Looks like we're in another diff plateau. Still in slightly negative territory.

A lot of things were not done right with the bitcoin hardfork coins, such halving will be better few months after bitcoin halving, nothing but just the lively sentiment in the market that can pump the price for some hours and probably keep it high. The altcoins seem to be having their way as against the bitcoin prediction for 2020. I expect surprises in the space, so the altcoin pump from Ethereum is no exception interestingly in the value of bitcoin.

mikeywith

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Quote from: philipma1957 on February 19, 2020, 02:38:22 PM

Not sure WTF is happening in China but this articles says Apple to lose billions in sales
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/coronavirus-could-cost-apple-billions-in-missed-sales-analysts-say/ar-BB108y24

I think the main reason Apple will lose money because of the decrease in demand for its products rather than the production itself, China is a major market and once they stop buying, Apple's value drops, look at crude oil prices, they dropped from $68 to $52 in no time, simply because China is the largest buyer for Crude oil, Apple's revenue in China was about 45 billion dollars last year alone, that's a big hit for them.

As far as mining is concerned, I don't know about other companies, but Bitmain seems to be operating normally, I get replies to my emails normally, they shipped the s17+ control board faster than I thought, the slow in production and the long waiting periods might have been caused by the virus, but it has been this way since the last year-end, maybe not as bad as today, but most certainly nothing too strange.

Bitmain should ship S17+ and T17+ next month, let's see how they do.

Quote

Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.2224% and -0.1906%
Previous Retarget:   February 11, 2020 at 8:59 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 9:53 AM (in 5d 7h 34m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 10:02 AM (in 5d 7h 43m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 53m 32s and 14d 1h 2m 31s

Price fell hard $10,170 to $9,290 in less than an hour, currently back at $9599.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Not sure WTF is happening in China but this articles says Apple to lose billions in sales

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/coronavirus-could-cost-apple-billions-in-missed-sales-analysts-say/ar-BB108y24

I have to figure Apple has more pull to be able to stay open then asic builders. Yet Apple can not get goods to ship.

Hmmm I wonder if this corona-v slow down of building and shipping is China trying to manipulate the trump tax trade war.

Fuck you Trump and your import tax we got no gear to ship anyway.

could it be?

TheYankeesWin!

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I guess the corona-virus has really slowed up shipping of new gear. This is not how I want the difficulty to stay stable. I do not see any info to show it stopping at this time.

Here are a few websites with some info:

https://www.coronavirusupdate.com/
https://www.coronavirusupdate.com/coronavirus-impact-map

Shipping delays below

newer one is here: https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/crypto-miner-makers-bitmain-innosilicon-and-microbt-delay-deliveries-due-to-coronavirus/

older is here: https://www.coindesk.com/coronavirus-controls-in-china-are-delaying-crypto-miner-deliveries-firms-say

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   618097 (7 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.3323% (1202 / 1210.08 expected, 8.08 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15546745765529.37XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15456891290144 and 15471469343371
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.5780% and -0.4842%
Previous Retarget:   February 11, 2020 at 1:59 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 3:52 AM (in 5d 16h 12m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 4:14 AM (in 5d 16h 34m 42s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 53m 24s and 14d 2h 15m 30s

There are 814 blocks to go.

Price has crawled back up to 10,100 usd +

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

the two combined at 8 to 9 % if they don't rise in price they will create a 4.5% shift over night in btc or miners will lose money sticking with them.

If we are to believe corona-v has stopped shipping for all of feb we will be flat -2 to +1 this jump which means we are good until march 11

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com

Latest Block:   617654 (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.3167% (759 / 779.93 expected, 20.93 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15546745765529.37XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15150782817924 and 15302299781188
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.5469% and -1.5723%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 1:59 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 25, 2020 at 7:39 AM (in 8d 19h 40m 29s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 25, 2020 at 11:15 AM (in 8d 23h 16m 35s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 39m 46s and 14d 9h 15m 52s

lets say -1 on feb 25 next jump is march 10 it may be -1 to +1

gear finally ships and we get the better jump march 24

but bch and bsv could do pre ½ ing price rise causing a 4 or 5 % drop in btc mining and no new gear in site.

Last week the earning spread was 16 for 100 th btc and as high as 18 for 100 th bsv

if this grows to a big enough number btc could stay flat longer. even when gear ships.

look at these numbers

btc 15.31 100th
bch 14.21 100th
bsv 13.75 100th

that is a big shift

it was

btc 16.25 100th
bch 17.25 100th
bsv 18.03 100th

yeah they are 9% of all the hash

but if btc is 91%

they can shift btc 3% up or down which is 6% difference.

This could be pretty cool to figure out.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: ism1231 on February 16, 2020, 03:55:57 AM

yes some wale have work on it.

WTF?

HagssFIN

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Electrical engineer. Mining since 2014.

I think it might be better for bitcoin if Micree Zhan wins Jihan Wu in the Bitmain power battle.

ism1231

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yes some wale have work on it.

wndsnb

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I don't see BCH and BSV halvings making a very noticeable impact. Like mikeywith said, we're only talking 8.5eh. And how much of that is directly controlled by Roger Ver/Jihan Wu and Craig Wright and co? They are both essentially centralized since they are pretty much controlled by a few players. I wonder if now that Jihan is back in charge Bitmain is going to start requiring payment in BCH again when they release the 5nm miners...

Maybe we'll see a little diff bump.

Looks like we're in another diff plateau. Still in slightly negative territory.

Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 33. (Read 14862 times)