It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 34.

mikeywith

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Quote from: philipma1957 on February 14, 2020, 12:57:36 PM

I see a shake up in 46 to 60 days due to BSV and BCH ½ ings.

Let us do some calculations, I love Maths.

BCH hashrate =4.8E (Current and highest in 12 months)
BSV hashrate =3.7E (Current and highest in 12 months)
BTC hashrate =106.2E (Current and NOT highest)

4.8+3.7= 8.5E

8.5E is 8% of 106.2E

In the grand scheme of things, nobody actually mines those two coins, so even if they were to vanish for whatever reason, and every gear pointed towards those coins joins the Bitcoin blockchain, it's just a matter of 8% added to the network, 106.2E + 8.5E = 114.7E, Bitcoin has done higher than that just a month ago.

So let's assume the following, those coin's profitably drops by half while their prices do nothing, half the hashrate migrates to BTC, and then what? I really see nothing coming up in 60 days, it's the 87 days that actually matter.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

S-9 1 board mod

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/what-to-do-with-all-the-old-s-9s-5160194

which was riffed on and improved by thierry4wd

here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/my-s9-heater-version-5213936

I did some work on a whatsminer m10

here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/playing-around-with-a-whatsminer-m10-5221489

very good numbers 2 boards on low speed

14.0th at 845 watts or 60 watts a th.

this now earns 2.25 a day say 21 kwatts at 5 cent power = 1.05

2.25-1.05 = 1.20 net

I think a lot of very interesting moves have happened here.

3 ½ ing's for sha-256

Quote from: https://explorer.viawallet.com/halving

BTC Halving Countdown
87 days :12 hours : 59 mins

Estimated time to halve:
2020-05-12
Current block reward:
12.5
Block reward after halving :
6.25
Remaining blocks until halving:
12,608
Block generation time:
10min
Blocks left to mine (BTC):
2,782,600

BCH Halving Countdown
53 days : 12 hours : 29 mins

Estimated time to halve:
2020-04-08
Current block reward:
12.5
Block reward after halving :
6.25
Remaining blocks until halving:
7,712
Block generation time:
10min
Blocks left to mine (BCH):
2,721,400

BSV Halving Countdown
55 days : 01 hours : 09mins

Estimated time to halve:
2020-04-10
Current block reward:
12.5
Block reward after halving :
6.25
Remaining blocks until halving:
7,929
Block generation time:
10min
Blocks left to mine (BSV):
2,724,112.5

I see a shake up in 46 to 60 days due to BSV and BCH ½ ings.

mikeywith

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Quote from: stompix on February 14, 2020, 09:01:13 AM

Of course, I was talking about an extreme situation where by luck you have all the stars aligned.

Aligned enough to hit a block solo? Roll Eyes

Quote

But, don't you think that the current situation with cheap old gear (which can still be plugged in a home) is more advantageous to bring back the truly decentralized home mining that we were discussing in another thread?
A cheap miner (what's 80$) it consumes as much as the air conditioning and it does pay something back.... Cheesy

a great point Indeed, when I talked about home miners I did not imagine a situation similar to this, I was imagining that new gears would be geared towards home miners but turns out that old gears could also be used at home, especially with geat ideas like Phill s9 heater version (can't find the link) and
thierry4wd amazing idea of altering the miner's case by making a hole on each side of the miner to allow for better cooling with much less noise, and with the right firmware, you can get the setting to as low as 70-75w/th, which is good enough for many home miners given the price of the gear is below 100$ and the miner consumes less than 1kw.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 11, 2020, 07:58:03 AM

The coronavirus shut down a farm?

Wow, I admit at first I was saying like, no, that's not possible but it seems like you were right again. Second thing, I can confirm that getting things from China is slowing down, my father just got a letter from one of our suppliers that he is unable to deliver the merchandise since the company in China told him they can's ship anything from their normal port and will have to reroute it, it's going to take some extra 14 days.

More possible shutdowns, the time needed for the actual shipment, customs, time for the actual installation, all things are lining up for a flat hashrate till halving.
Who would have believed this 3 months ago... Huh

Quote from: mikeywith on February 12, 2020, 12:15:49 PM

Those who have free power can simply buy used S9s for 80$ and call it a day but that won't happen.

Speaking from personal experience as most of you know I have 0 cents power rate in some places, but that is pretty limited quota, and the same goes to everyone else with super cheap or free power.

Of course, I was talking about an extreme situation where by luck you have all the stars aligned. But, don't you think that the current situation with cheap old gear (which can still be plugged in a home) is more advantageous to bring back the truly decentralized home mining that we were discussing in another thread? A cheap miner (what's 80$) it consumes as much as the air conditioning and it does pay something back.... Cheesy

The days into this epoch... flat!!!

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Next Difficulty Change: between -0.0007% and -0.0003%

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

The pros when working have tremendous range in power usage around 1500 to 2750 watts. They can be nice if things go south. But like you say one or two to start is okay.

More on topic coins floating at 10,150 to 10,300

diff is about -2% but only 358 blocks in and 1658 to go.

Innosilicon still has delays in shipping due to corona-v

Quote from: https://www.innosilicon.com/html/t3+67t-miner/index.html

Notice: Due to the coronavirus disease, the logistics and transportation are affected to some extent. Delivery will be arranged based on actual situation, and shall be subjected to our official website.

issues with pangolin miner shipping

Quote from: https://pangolinminer.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/900000107623

Latest Delivery Arrangement during Coronavirus Outbreak

Laurent
1 day ago Updated
Follow
Due to the effect of Coronavirus, we (Pangolinminer) will continue closing our office and warehouse in China. In this period, we will not collect or deliver any repair packages. We will inform you on pangolinminer.com once we get back to normal.

We apologize for the inconvenience and thank you for your patience and understanding.

Team PangolinMiner

mikeywith

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My foot is in the water already, got S17 pro up and running for a while now, got T17e, T17, and s17+, I have yet to try the T17+ and the normal version of S17, the main purpose of getting these different gears is to see which one is most durable in terms of heat, in 3-4 months from now temps here will get to as high as 40 degrees celsius (104F) or even slightly higher sometimes. whatever runs cooler will be my favorite gear to stack, I am also thinking (and of course hopping) that prices then will fall and I will be able to buy more of them.

Here are the latest prices in Malaysia:

S17 pro 50th = $1550
S17 pro 53th = $1650
S17 pro 56th = $1730

In the U.S:

S17 pro 56th = $2000

These are bulk prices, so it would be a bit higher for smaller quantities, 50th = 8.5$ daily before power bill or 255$ a month at current prices, $1550+$150 for shipping = $1700 / $255 = 6.6 months, at 6 cents per kWh $1700/(5.5*30) = 10 months to ROI.

with the halving approaching and if you don't have free power and BTC price does not go to the moon, you looking at over a year to actually ROI a gear like that, so don't dip your foot too deep Grin

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

You are preaching to the choir. there is no way you should go all in right now.

But dipping your foot into the water (1 or 2 s17pros ) should not be all in.

My self I pushed hard back in OCT-NOV.

I ordered 10,200 in bitmain gear using paypal to pay it.

I have until June 2 to pay it off. I owe under 4500.
I will have it paid by April 1.

I then will own 1.4ph in btc gear
I will own 11gh in ltc gear
and a few gpu rigs with buysolar

along with 7 cpu rigs.

mikeywith

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Quote from: philipma1957 on February 12, 2020, 12:37:36 PM

Phill, just like bitcoin, buying mining gears whenever one and their grandmother is doing so has always been a terrible idea Wink

, I have enough gears at the moment, I am not taking a lot of risk by selling all gears and Hodling only BTC/USD, but I am also not going to trade my BTC for mining gears at current prices since the halving is certain and 5nm is certain- I rather gamble on gears' prices dropping hard right after the halving, that might be the best time for me to actually go balls deep in mining gears.

Quote from: citronick on February 12, 2020, 10:45:14 AM

When price eventually hits 100k and above..... I think even an S7 probably will be worth powering up.

Am I making sense?

If that happens next month, you make sense, if that takes 8 years you don't, more halvings to come, more efficient gears are probably going to show up, by the time we hit 100k and if things keep growing slow and steady, chances of S7 becoming profitable are slim to nothing. But hey, this is BTC after all.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Right now no asic builder offers fast ship. You need a reseller's gear. The s17 pro in malaysia is more then 1500 from a reseller. I would argue a guy like you or citronick should buy 1 or 2 maybe even 3 to 5. Depends on your available power and how many lessor units you have now.

Ie if you are clearing 160 usd a day that is 4800 a month buying 3-5 s17pros from a reseller is okay. Buying 20 s17pros is not.

If you are clearing 60usd a day that is 1800 a month buying 1-3 s17pros from a local reseller is okay buying 5-10 is not.

In both cases I am assuming you have spare power to add the gear. I also assume your power is 4-6 cents.

If you are 1-3 cents You can play waiting game.

Heck I have 3 s9's costing me 145 a month to run they earn me 185-200 a month I just let them mine and at the end of each month I decide if I will go pay host for a month more mining. So far they have been with the host for 16 months and made some profit each and every month.

mikeywith

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Quote from: stompix on February 12, 2020, 10:29:49 AM

At zero

Those who have free power can simply buy used S9s for 80$ and call it a day but that won't happen.

Speaking from personal experience as most of you know I have 0 cents power rate in some places, but that is pretty limited quota, and the same goes to everyone else with super cheap or free power.

For 30kw of free power i can only have about 22*s9s, even if i mange to ROI before the halving, the profit i will potentially make every month will not be enough to cover the time i spend monitoring all of them.

There might be newbies who don't go through the numbers the way I do, but i am pretty sure that those who do will most likely stop buying 16nm gears unless bitcoin price does something out of the ordinary like reaching 30k in a week.

With that said, looking at the new generation miners, even with free power, ROI is not tempting enough with current numbers, we know 50% drop in mining rewards is coming, we have no clue how will difficulty or price will react to that, with only 90 days left and 5nm might hit the marker at any point, it takes balls of steel to actually buy those expensive gears now only to get them two months later.

TheYankeesWin!

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I would only buy s17pro gear don't buy a lot.

1 ph is 1000 x .16 = 160 a day

If it is 70 watt gear and fully paid off it burns 101 usd a day your profit is 60 a day or 1800 a month about 5000-5400 so you can buy 3-5 s17pros from now till 1/2 ing .

Buy 3 is low risk Buy 5 is medium risk.

You are close to Malaysia you should be able to get s17 pros... you want them because they can go from 42th to 57th via stock firmware also from 1500 watt to 2750 watt via stock firmware. You can add gear more aggressive the 3-5 s17pro from now til ½ . But your setup should work doing the above.

Tough call ,but with 3nm and 5nm mentioned adding a few s17pros should be good for you to do.

A big crash you don't get killed just shut off the 30th and mine the 3-5 s17pros.
A middle move the 30th gear turns a very small profit and the s17pros make a profit.
A big run up the old gear make money along with the new gear.

Lots more to think of how much power do you have. If you have 70kwatts burning now and can go to 140kwatts adding some s17 pros should be good. Then if new gear comes out cheap s17pros could occur. Thats why 3-5 over nex three months is better then 10-15 right now.

citronick

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---- winter*juvia -----

1 have small 1ph farm hosted somewhere in China at 6c.

Almost all of the miners at 30ths ASICS.

With 14k insight with the increasing diff and halving - should i keep and addon, OR sell/replace to better ASICS 60ths or wait for 5nm ASICS.

When price eventually hits 100k and above..... I think even an S7 probably will be worth powering up.

Am I making sense?

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Yeah down by 6, up by 10, down by 10 just a lot of variance early on.

Meanwhile:

Coins are solid prices of:

10,329 BTC 109.28 eh 16.32 cents a th
469 BCH 4.84 eh 17.00 cents a th
363 BSV 3.54 eh 16.35 cents a th

https://explorer.viawallet.com/halving

these are from link above:
BTC ½ ing in 89 days
BCH ½ ing in 55 days
BSV ½ ing in 57 days

Like it or not all three are needed to be looked at to understand diff numbers since all three use sha-256.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Back in negative again, probably the luck is messing with us as it does in the first period when a few blocks make a mess of all the stats.

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 11, 2020, 10:40:28 PM

Coins are way up over 10,200 maybe someone else turned on a ton of gear ⚙️

That matches with the theory of a mining farm replacing a lot of gear but I wonder which farm would be that big and what the hell are they replacing?
Normally you would believe that all the big farms already bought new gear and even if they don't, with the current price spike they could have kept the old gear still mining.

Seeing how we're back on the flat line I assume everyone with $ and connection to make a difference is just waiting to see how things unfold.

Quote from: mikeywith on February 11, 2020, 05:53:54 PM

1- only 90 days (in theory) are left for the halving, not enough time for any new mining gear to ROI even with free power.

If you're a pretty fast ninja with cheap electricity you could theoretically ROI with the S9e way before the halving. I hope my calculations are correct as I see it will earn you almost 3$ a day, 10 days shipping, 2.5$ per day, 60 days ROI. At zero 1,2 even 3 cents electricity with gear paid off, it would make no sense whatsoever to unplug them even after the having.

But that's just the best scenario ever.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

We are now up 9%. A hot streak last 40 blocks smoked the blockchain.

Very interesting numbers.

90 blocks made in time of 100 💯 .

now 130 made in time of 123.

so 40 made in time of 23.

Many will call it luck I am inclined to think bitmain switched from high to low speed on all its bitdeer gear.

But what do I know.

Coins are way up over 10,200 maybe someone else turned on a ton of gear ⚙️

mikeywith

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Quote from: philipma1957 on February 11, 2020, 07:58:03 AM

I am still waiting for my next move on purchasing gear. Not sure what I should do other then getting s17pros I don't know what price point to buy them at.

A little less than 17 hours in and we are 9.7 blocks behind so far

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   616986 (an hour ago)
Current Pace:   90.5651% (91 / 100.48 expected, 9.48 behind)
Current Difficulty:   15546745765529.37XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 14234572858215 and 15421306194882
Next Difficulty Change:   between -8.4402% and -0.8069%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 8:59 AM

I certainly don't expect us to end this round with a negative value, but something similar to the previous adjustment would be nice given that bitcoin price is on the rise. There are a few reasons why we could be slowing down

1- only 90 days (in theory) are left for the halving, not enough time for any new mining gear to ROI even with free power.
2- Many people are expecting a fall in mining gear prices and a rise in BTC price after the halving-- they chose to hold bitcoin for now.
3- The virus might be more serious than we think it is, mining farms in quarantined cities might shut down, any power failure or an issue with the main breaker will stop the farm and no one will be able to bring it back online.
4- There are actually no enough gears to satisfy the demand anyway ( gears are over-priced now in the retail market).

philipma1957

legendary

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'The right to privacy matters'

The coronavirus shut down a farm? It is slowing sales at Innosilicon

From

Quote from: https://www.innosilicon.com/html/t2t-30t-miner/index.html

INNOSILICON T2T-30T BTC Miner
Shipping is expected to start from Feb.14, 2020. First paid, first served!

Notice: Due to the coronavirus disease, the logistics and transportation are affected to some extent. Delivery will be arranged based on actual situation, and shall be subjected to our official website.

Not sure what caused the drop to +0.5%.

Yeah I will need some snacking items for the next few months.

Since I do keto here are my 2 choices.

https://nuts.com/nuts/almonds/roasted-no-salt.html

a nice 5 lb bag of them along with

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07HJNSG1M

an eight pack of the above.

I am still waiting for my next move on purchasing gear. Not sure what I should do other then getting s17pros I don't know what price point to buy them at.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote

616,896 2020-02-11 09:10:24 15,546,745,765,529 - 15.55 T + 0.52 %

Only 0.5% while it started with 5%? Something is weird, especially since right now we might get to negative, of course, the -12.3% is just bad luck but we were on a downtrend.

So, any other scenarios than farms changing miners and taking their time to put the new ones on? Maybe no gear getting shipped in the last two weeks because of the extended forced holiday in China?

I'm starting to doubt not the 10% increase in a period which is obviously out of the realm of possibilities right now but an overall 10% increase till the 1/2 if the price stays flat. 90 days to go, this needs some real popcorn supplies.

philipma1957

legendary

Activity: 4326

Merit: 8950

'The right to privacy matters'

Dropped to 9750 or so and diff dropped to almost zero.

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   616853 (19 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.3105% (1974 / 1967.89 expected, 6.11 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   15466098935554.65XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15514485215161 and 15514506291029
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3129% and +0.3130%
Previous Retarget:   January 28, 2020 at 3:43 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 2:41 AM (in 0d 6h 58m 41s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 2:41 AM (in 0d 6h 58m 43s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 57m 35s and 13d 22h 57m 37s

Have to say a close at +.5 to -0.5 would be nice.

Would also like to see price drift to 8800-9100 and next jump have another low drop or rise.

A lot matters with price right now

look at diff pattern do we string a nice flat rectangle or go upwards there are five easy to see patterns in the diff over last 18-25 months.

TheYankeesWin!

sr. member

Activity: 465

Merit: 301

We past 10k on coinbase.

The diff is still about +1% a nice number.

We have about 300 blocks to go monday night or tues morning .

If we are at 10.5k and 0% diff for next jump it will be nice.

Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 34. (Read 14827 times)