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Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 35. (Read 14827 times)

legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
February 07, 2020, 03:14:59 PM
#53
On the other side, for a 5% growth, we need something like 100k s17 on top what we have, are the days of +10% growth over?

That  idea of 10% diff jump  or 15% jump   is much harder to happen.

There is a huge amount of gear.  And both BCH and BSV have a lot of gear mining them.

look at these numbers  taken from viabtc.com

Coin Type.....Daily Profit........Price............Pool HashRate................Hashrate................Miners......................... ...Difficulty..............Date-Time

BTC.........$ 0.1541 /T......9769.12 USD........7.22 EH/s...............112.36 EH/s............468189........................15.47T.............2020-01-28 03:44:03

BCH........$ 0.1624 /T.......436.85 USD.........373.77 PH/s............. 4.56 EH/s.............25025.......................664.92G

BSV..........$ 0.17 /T.........293.16 USD...........1.20 EH/s.............. 3.21 EH/s...............22386.......................411.40G

Any of them can mine with an s17 or any good asic miner.

They will continue to grow  but I would think   BCH or BSV  would be more inclined to gain or lose large %  then BTC will.

The three add to just about 120eh

So to think 10% up is 12eh or 50th  x 240,000 = 12,000,000 th   that is also 12,000 ph  or 12eh

So to think  that  the network  can add 240,000 50th units in 2 weeks  is pretty amazing.

Logically speaking unless coins boost heavy  it will not be happening soon.  the ½ ing is in around 94 days.

if coins are 10k  and rewards are 6.8 btc with fees  vs  12.8 with fees  the block value will be 68000 vs current  124,000

If  this is so  1 th will earn about  0.082 cents instead of 0.1543 cents

a pair of s17s 100 th   or 8.20 usd  vs 15.43 usd  before power  or another way is 3.9 kwatts x 24 = 93.6 kwatts a day  lets argue 94 kwatts a day at 10 cent power a loser

8.20 - 9.40 = -1.20  10 cent power
8.20 - 8.46 = -0.26       9  cent

8.20 - 7.52 = +0.68     8 CENT
8.20 - 6.58 =  1.62      7
8.20 - 5.64 =  2.56      6
8.20 - 4.70 =  3.50      5
8.20 - 3.76 =  4.44      4
8.20 - 2.82 =  5.38      3

I just don't see 240,000 s17s going online  in 1 jump if  coins are 10k after ½ ing

But if coins  went to 30k   yeah they would sell gear like mad

to follow up  240,000 s17's at 2.2 kwatts each is quite a bit of power.

1 = 2.2
10 = 22
100 = 222
1000 = 2222 or 2.222 megawatts
10000 = 22222 or 22.22 megawatts
100000 = 222222 or 222.2 megawatts
240000 = 533332.8 or 533.3328 megawatts     this is a shit ton of added power.

Okay  I will give you that a huge farm  could shut off 100,000 s9's and replace with 40,000 s17's    and your power footprint would cancel out you lose

1,400,000 th or 1.4 eh

you gain 2,000,000 or 2 eh   that is a net gain of  .6 eh  with no power gain.

but 10% is 20x times   and I do not think  2,000,000 s9's get shut down and replaced by 800,000 s17's  in 2 weeks time.

Not with prices of coins at this level.

Does bring up the idea that   asic builders really would love to pump prices on coins to make sales.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
February 07, 2020, 02:21:30 PM
#52
Nice to hear that at least for some "home" mining is still paying off.

But regarding the difficulty, I'm puzzled, the curve down from what we were a few days ago shows that even with the price going quite a bit up there is no rush in plugging gear back online. So, there is actually no more gear on the market or is the demand for miners going really down?

Bitmain is still taking orders, whatsminer seems to have m20's ready to ship, the same for inno (although they do have a notice about the virus interfering with shipping time). Is the halving putting the brakes on for expansions?

On the other side, for a 5% growth, we need something like 100k s17 on top what we have, are the days of +10% growth over?

ps: S9k ar down for 90$, soon the shipping will cost more than the miner.
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
February 06, 2020, 09:36:27 PM
#51
diff dropped to 2%

coins are almost over 10k  you can see them getting closer to that barrier

they were over 9840  I would love to the 10k get pushed past.

I am just about fully paid off my entire farm.  we have 1.42ph asic and 11gh ltc

we are pulling in 250 a day with the gear my cut of this is 62 a day. do not know how long it will stay at this level.

It is okay but at ½ ing I will drop quite a bit.

I will pay off all gear in late feb or maybe march.
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
February 03, 2020, 06:44:26 PM
#50
I suspected there would be shut downs hurting all kinds of sales.

Lets hope it clears fast for everyone.

My wife is still coughing I still have some issues but we are greatly improved.

I know of many people sick in NJ I suspected that this is bigger then is let on.

here is a hospital getting built in wuhan

https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/wuhan-to-build-pneumonia-hospital-in-two-weeks-to-step-up-care

I saw photos of it fully built still looking for link

https://news.yahoo.com/built-10-days-chinas-virus-043515550.html

and here by me in NJ, USA

Hospital restrictions are being placed into action.

https://www.jerseyshoreonline.com/brick/shore-area-hospitals-to-restrict-visitors-due-to-flu-activity/

I am 63
I have never seen this happen in my life in my area hospitals.

So it is not over yet  maybe by end of Feb.

Oh the diff is about 3%

Latest Block:   615942  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.9935%  (1063 / 1032.10 expected, 30.9 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   15466098935554.65XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15823795964760 and 15929815927146
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.3128% and +2.9983%
Previous Retarget:   January 28, 2020 at 3:43 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 5:57 PM  (in 6d 10h 13m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 8:08 PM  (in 6d 12h 23m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 14h 14m 3s and 13d 16h 24m 59s
legendary
Activity: 2436
Merit: 6643
be constructive or S.T.F.U
February 03, 2020, 05:39:57 PM
#49
... as to how it is affecting btc and asic building. It may slow sales and shipping.

Indeed, this is how some streets look like in China.



During the day, such a seen is not possible in normal situations, whole cities were quarantined and many employees are stuck in those cities and they can't go back to work, that will continue even after the holidays. Many factories and companies have suspended their operations in China until further notice, and the mining industry is no different.

While this is good news for the topic we have here (difficulty) I hate to see people suffer and I wish this will end soon.
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
February 03, 2020, 11:21:38 AM
#48
well here in the states we get a filtered version of the world.

by the way a lot of countries get filtered versions of what is really happening.

not just the usa.

I did find a tidbit of info stating the most strict cdc rules are in effect for the first time in the USA since 1956

So the virus has caused some fear or anxiety in the USA 🇺🇸 government.

Some say it is still growing person to person in the Usa.

The good thing is if you get it your death rate is 2-4%.

While this sucks and it is a high death rate it is lower then say Aids was when it first came out.

as to how it is affecting btc and asic building. It may slow sales and shipping.
legendary
Activity: 2436
Merit: 6643
be constructive or S.T.F.U
February 03, 2020, 11:00:17 AM
#47
I purchased a lot of canned food. In case I don't want to go to the supermarket. I also sold coins to have more cash on hand

This is exactly my point. When there is fear people would want food and cash, every wise man will do exactly what you did there Phill. After all survival is more important than anything else, that's the reason why I said that prices increase has nothing to do with the virus spreading. in fact, if anything it has to be the other way around.

Anyway, I am glad that you and were wife are doing better, the numbers you talk about are pretty scary if you ask me, I would suggest that you try to stay home as much as you could, wash your hands well before you eat, avoid going to crowded places unless you have to, and wear a face mask with the colored side facing out anytime you leave your house.

And by the way, this virus will "supposedly" in the summer, so it's just a few months of survival before nature takes care of it, so no need to panic.
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
January 31, 2020, 12:06:36 PM
#46
Max is going down, probably around 1% in the end?

Back more to actual  guesses on diff.  Monday  should / could see some spiking due to all Holidays over in China.

Latest Block:   615384  (6 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   104.7536%  (505 / 482.08 expected, 22.92 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   15466098935554.65XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15780591965035 and 16202925698284
Next Difficulty Change:   between +2.0334% and +4.7641%
Previous Retarget:   last Tuesday at 3:43 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 10, 2020 at 12:28 PM  (in 10d 0h 24m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 10, 2020 at 9:02 PM  (in 10d 8h 58m 14s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 8h 45m 9s and 13d 17h 19m 4s

Just started this jump only 500 blocks in.  price at 9280

By monday  I think price will move close to or above 10k.  I think diff will shift up to  6%

But I am only guessing  more or less.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
January 31, 2020, 11:01:19 AM
#45
I do have this piece on info my wife spent 4 days in the hospital with 2x pneumonia she is home and okay.

Happy to hear that Phil, in the end, health and family are the most important things.

I see some people try to imply that the last spike in Bitcoin price was due to tragic coronavirus and people are panicking and rushing to buy Bitcoin...

Some are always like that, whenever there is a disaster in the news they see millions rushing to buy bitcoin. The same happened at the start of the month with the Iran crisis.

Back to the mining speculation, I doubt the virus will take a real toll on the growth of hash rate if things don't escalate to really dangerous levels where all the lots are shut down. If we talk about container shipping is almost impossible for the virus to be able to survive a trip to the east coast of the US or our port of Rotterdam. Extreme resistant viruses are able to survive up 20 days but that only in constant conditions of low controlled humidity with constant temperatures and a container ship at sea is nothing like that. Air packages....well, that's a different story.

Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7145% and +4.0721%

Max is going down, probably around 1% in the end?
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
January 30, 2020, 06:51:42 PM
#44
It is complicated as I said here where I live I was sick from Jan 1 to Jan 12  my wife was sick from Dec 31 to Jan 20 and had to go into local hospital which is how I got numbers of people in my local hospital at 215 beds out of 284 beds. Multiple nurses and doctors told me these were the worst numbers they ever had at the hospital.  Flu/ pneumonia  and other respiratory issues were mentioned.

So we get my wife home and the news from China comes out.  Now I have had many many many pieces of gear come from China from Sept 2019 to Jan 2020.  Naturally I am a bit paranoid.  My hospital serves 150-200k people in the area  which is 215 of 200,000 or 1 in 900 people in a hospital.

The areas in China closed down are  50 million people  in 5 or 6 cities which means 55,555 people should be in hospital or ill

newer number are closer maybe worse  with 7700 confirmed and 81,000 suspected.   that 81,000 is higher then the 1 in 900 by us in central nj.  which kind of makes sense since Wuhan  is the so called center of this.

My family was personally effected by flu / pneunomia unknown virus  and we survived.  I know of multiple people personally in this area
that are pretty sick.


To drift off topic does happen but it may or may not be so off topic.  Like I did not really give a fuck about mining and gear as my wife and I were really sick.


The Chinese news broke after we started to recover and  was stuck by the closeness of symptoms.

I am Hopeful that people weather it and get better here in NJ and around the world in China.

Not sure if it spiked price or not but fear of disaster can make people prep in many ways.

I purchased a lot of canned food. In case I don't want to go to the supermarket. I also sold coins to have more cash on hand. Lastly I choose to sell my coupons and not buy gear with them.

A lot of this was due to me my wife  getting sick and then the news from china about many thousands of people falling ill.

price of coin is 9474 down a bit.
member
Activity: 91
Merit: 17
January 30, 2020, 05:51:32 PM
#43
I, however, agree to the fact that difficulty will be most likely be flat or have only a minor increase, in the grand scheme of things, China is the only ASIC Miner's manufacturer, and with things not going too well at the moment, everything from production to shipping will indeed slow down. It's a sad thing and I hope they will get through it with as little damage as possible.

Confirmed
https://www.coindesk.com/coronavirus-controls-in-china-are-delaying-crypto-miner-deliveries-firms-say

Mixed feeling here.  Undecided
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
January 30, 2020, 10:25:21 AM
#42
To follow up on my concerns my area in NJ,USA had 215 confirmed people in hospital beds for flu / pneumonia  illness between Jan 13-17
The hospital has 284 beds  and the area serves 150,000 to 200,000 people

Based on these numbers a town 2,000,000 should  have 2150 in hospital

I think Wuhan  is 10,000,000 so 10750 should be in hospital

I finally got some numbers on China

Code:
AFP
Deadliest day for China in virus fight as global fears mount
Sébastien RICCI
AFP
January 30, 2020, 9:47 AM EST  


Wuhan (China) (AFP) - China reported its biggest single-day jump in novel coronavirus deaths on Thursday, as global fears deepened with more infections confirmed overseas including three Japanese evacuated from the outbreak's epicentre.

The World Health Organization, which initially downplayed a disease that has now killed 170 in China, was readying to meet Thursday to decide whether to declare it a global emergency.

But governments, companies and people around the world were already escalating efforts to contain the illness, which is believed to have emerged from an animal market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan.

Many countries have urged their citizens not to visit China, while some have banned entry for travellers from Wuhan.

At least 15 countries have confirmed infections, with India reporting its first case.

Airlines began cancelling flights servicing China on Wednesday, and more followed suit on Thursday.

Russia said it was closing its far eastern border with China over the outbreak.

Meanwhile, more than 6,000 tourists were put under lockdown aboard a cruise ship at an Italian port on Thursday after two Chinese passengers were isolated over fears they could be carrying the coronavirus.

Beijing has taken extraordinary steps to arrest the spread of the virus, including effectively quarantining more than 50 million people in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province.

The government on Thursday reported 38 new deaths in the preceding 24 hours, the highest one-day total since the virus was detected late last year.All but one of the new deaths were in Hubei.

The number of confirmed new cases also grew steadily to 7,711, the National Health Commission said. Another 81,000 people were under observation for possible infection.

The pathogen is believed to have emerged in a market that sold wild game, and spread by a Lunar New Year holiday season in which hundreds of millions of Chinese travel domestically or abroad.

- 'Truly new situation' -

Thousands of foreigners have been trapped in Wuhan since it was sealed off last week.

Massive cities like Beijing and Shanghai were also eerily quiet as countless people followed advice to stay indoors, or at least wear masks when venturing out.

Japan and the United States on Wednesday became the first countries to organise airlifts from Wuhan for their citizens. A second US flight is planned in the coming days.

Britain was planning an evacuation of around 200 of its citizens early Friday morning, after receiving the necessary clearance from Beijing.

Australia and New Zealand were among others organising similar operations.

Tokyo on Thursday reported that three people who were aboard the first evacuation flight had tested positive for the virus after landing back in Japan.

Two of the three infected passengers showed no symptoms, according to Japanese authorities, underscoring the difficulty detecting the coronavirus.

Compounding fears, Japan was allowing the arrivals -- more than 400 have been repatriated after a second flight on Thursday -- to "self-quarantine".

The government said it could not legally compel testing or quarantining, and two people on the first flight refused testing.

That is despite Japanese officials already confirming two cases in which patients tested positive without having visited China.

In contrast, other countries organising evacuations said they were all planning to quarantine.

- Take action -

The WHO also has come under fire after it last week decided not to declare a global health emergency.

A meeting Thursday will decide whether to reverse that decision, possibly leading to travel or trade barriers.

"The whole world needs to take action," Michael Ryan, head of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, told reporters in Geneva.

The virus is similar to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) pathogen. That outbreak also began in China and eventually killed nearly 800 people worldwide in 2002-03.

Major airlines that have suspended or reduced service to China include British Airways, German flag carrier Lufthansa, American Airlines, KLM, and United.

Chinese efforts to halt the virus have seen the suspension of classes nationwide and an extension of the Lunar New Year holiday.

All football matches across the country also would be postponed, the Chinese Football Association said, including the top-tier Chinese Super League.

- Economic worries -

Asian stock markets tumbled again Thursday on fears that trouble in the "world's factory" would upset global supply chains and dent profits.

Toyota, IKEA, Starbucks, Tesla, McDonald's and tech giant Foxconn were among the corporate giants temporarily freezing production or closing large numbers of outlets in China.

Volkswagen announced Thursday its China joint-venture plants would not start production again before February 9.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the coronavirus posed a fresh risk to the world economy.

Throughout China, signs of paranoia multiplied, with residents of some Beijing residential compounds erecting makeshift barriers to their premises.

In one of many similar photos posted online, a man wearing a surgical mask and brandishing a traditional martial arts weapon squatted on a barricade outside a Chinese village, near a sign saying: "Outsiders forbidden from entering".

The crisis has caused food prices to spike, and the central government on Thursday blamed this partly on overzealous preventive measures, issuing a directive banning any roadblocks or other hindrances to food shipments."

burs-dma-rox/gle/qan

Those numbers are based against a population of 50,000,000  and more then one city in China
170 dead
7,711 sick
81,000 under observation

While here in New Jersey  USA 10,000 miles away

The area I have some good info is population of 200,000  with 215 sick enoguh to be in a hospital bed.

so 215/200,000 = 1 of 930 people

in China  7714 sick  of 50,000,000  is 1 of 6481 people

I see lies and cover up  thus my early post.

If it is bad enough in China to blockade multiple cities with  a total of 50,000,000 people

Then why are the numbers in NJ far worse in terms of people needing a hospital?

I don't know.
full member
Activity: 416
Merit: 125
January 29, 2020, 07:54:23 PM
#41
I am finding it hard it get any real time accurate information on this.
Not sure why an entire city is shut down.
Not something I can recall happening very much.

You are correct that banking and cc's should work fine.  I did read food supplies are a real concern for wuhan.

I do have this piece on info my wife spent 4 days in the hospital with 2x pneumonia she is home and okay. Our local hospital  has 284 beds 215 were filled with pneumonia-flu victims. This was jan 13 to jan 17.

Howell New Jersey is 10000 miles from Wuhan, China yet we are having lots of lung disease. Nurses and doctors told.me it has been the worst they ever seen.
legendary
Activity: 2436
Merit: 6643
be constructive or S.T.F.U
January 29, 2020, 06:45:11 PM
#40
A locked down area with internet access can get crypto coins in and out past the barricades of police.

Well, it's not that people in quarantined cities don't have access to their online banking systems, I don't see the relationship between that and bitcoin price.

I see some people try to imply that the last spike in Bitcoin price was due to tragic coronavirus and people are panicking and rushing to buy Bitcoin, which I don't seem to agree to, people there are now facing a survival-related matter, it is not an economical fear where they need to find alternatives currencies or store of value, in fact, if you were HODLING some bitcoin and were in a situation like the people in Wuhan are in now, wouldn't you want to sell it so you can stockpile all the grocery, medicine and other important stuff? or simply not do anything BTC related?

I, however, agree to the fact that difficulty will be most likely be flat or have only a minor increase, in the grand scheme of things, China is the only ASIC Miner's manufacturer, and with things not going too well at the moment, everything from production to shipping will indeed slow down. It's a sad thing and I hope they will get through it with as little damage as possible.
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
January 29, 2020, 02:22:56 PM
#39
We are right around 9350  for price  this level  would be good if it stays flat for a week or 2.

Chinese Holidays are winding down.  We should see some moves on Feb 3 or 4.

Diff is pretty even last I  looked +2.9%

Latest Block:   615093  (11 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   102.9538%  (214 / 207.86 expected, 6.14 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   15466098935554.65XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 15556532161685 and 15926642614610
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.5847% and +2.9778%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 3:43 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 10, 2020 at 6:05 PM  (in 12d 3h 42m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 11, 2020 at 1:47 AM  (in 12d 11h 25m 7s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 14h 21m 35s and 13d 22h 3m 43s

I wonder if the lockdown of Wuhan, China  will be lifted or continued for a few more weeks. I would think if it stays locked down fears of a killer flu/plague would cause a lot of speculation in price.

A locked down area with internet access can get crypto coins in and out past the barricades of police.
newbie
Activity: 41
Merit: 0
January 28, 2020, 09:10:53 PM
#38
Phill, we seem to be on the same line, the majority of people, however, would think the opposite...

I also think the same. I think this rise in diff is caused by S9 s turned on when BTC price went up but i think this can end soon and BT price will continue to rise but diff will stop for some time. No way Bitmain and other manufacturers sold many of new model miners - their ROI was terrible and it still does not look too good.
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
January 28, 2020, 07:19:47 PM
#37
A lot of upward price pressure  as we past 9400   it makes holding onto s9's look okay for now.

For 1-5 cent power cost to be  mining why not stick with the s9's if you have them.
legendary
Activity: 2436
Merit: 6643
be constructive or S.T.F.U
January 28, 2020, 06:44:16 PM
#36
I think a lot of s9s are in play...

I am more like “sure”. Many farms in China have 0.04$ per Kwh rate, if they run S9 on LPM they make .85$ a day or 25$ a month, the old S9s go for about 50-70$ in China, hard to sell / easy to buy. Which means the guys who own them are not willing to let go for less than 50-70$, why? Because they can easily get that much before the halving.

and since there are people with even cheaper power or no power bill at all and the possibility that S9 will become profitable again even after the halving if price spikes way faster than difficulty, it makes sense to keep hodling that S9 rather than selling them for less than the price mentioned aloe.

With Bitcoin staying around the current levels or moving higher, I expect S9s and the like to still be in play until the halving happens, once they retire, people will be surprised of how many S9s were actually still in play and that it wasn't the new gears that making up all that hashrate.

Phill, we seem to be on the same line, the majority of people, however, would think the opposite.
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
January 28, 2020, 07:34:50 AM
#35
Coins are at 9020.
legendary
Activity: 3234
Merit: 1221
January 28, 2020, 04:00:08 AM
#34
HeightBlock TimeDifficultyChange   BitsAverage BlockAverage Hashrate
614,8802020-01-28 08:44:0315,466,098,935,554 - 15.47 T+ 4.67 %0x171232ff09 min 33 s110.71 EH/s
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