I think a lot of s9s are in play
I think a lot of new gear is not in play.
some big farms with three cent power are simply going to ride the s9s to the 1/2 ing then decide what to do.
I am running 3 s9s with a west coast location.
i pay 145 a month. 30 x 40 x .15 = 180 that is 35 profit.
I have had them there since Nov 1 2018.
they made money each and every month. I will ride them till the 1/2 ing and decide if i will ship 🛳 two s17 pros to replace them.
Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 36. (Read 14827 times)
But with prices where they are now and 15.5T diff the break-even for 90W/th S9s is 6.3c. Seem like there'd still be a bunch of S9s out there running on cheap power at this level
Maybe you are missing one point, Antminer S9 can run on LPM (Lower Power Mode) and many people have reported great results, I heave personally heard from a friend that I trust that he runs all his S9s at 75w/th, he is getting 10.5th to 11th at 800w range, with these numbers S9 makes about half a dollar a day for 6 cents per kwh, for someone with 4 cents they make about 80 cents a day, there is still a bit of room for them.
Also some people have cheaper power than that, and that will take them a while to turn off their S9s, the halving however will take care of the S9s if price does not respond accordingly.
Look like many big farms are playing it safe they want to see what the ½ ing will do.
We have about 108 blocks to next jump.
Oh happy birthday to me.
maybe we break 9k
edit
68 blocks to go
looking at a diff of 15.5 a jump of 4.8 to 5.0%
coins at 8960
edit:
54 blocks to go
looking at a diff of 15.47 a jump of 4.7 to 4.8%
coins at
$8896
edit:
50 blocks to go
looking at a diff of 15.44 a jump of 4.5 to 4.7%
coins at 9060
We have about 108 blocks to next jump.
Oh happy birthday to me.
maybe we break 9k
edit
68 blocks to go
looking at a diff of 15.5 a jump of 4.8 to 5.0%
coins at 8960
edit:
54 blocks to go
looking at a diff of 15.47 a jump of 4.7 to 4.8%
coins at
$8896
edit:
50 blocks to go
looking at a diff of 15.44 a jump of 4.5 to 4.7%
coins at 9060
Yeah, looks like we're headed for about 15.5T diff. About 15eh added since the new year.
I'm wondering if we're going to see another flat diff section or if we're just going to have a constant slope into the halving.
This suggests that S9s are pretty much gone:
But with prices where they are now and 15.5T diff the break-even for 90W/th S9s is 6.3c. Seem like there'd still be a bunch of S9s out there running on cheap power at this level. Maybe even some large farms that are sitting on their S9s waiting to see what happens after the halving before making any decisions on purchasing new gear. Maybe the 15eh of new hash since the new year are just some S9s getting turned back on after the pump back up to 9k.
I'm wondering if we're going to see another flat diff section or if we're just going to have a constant slope into the halving.
This suggests that S9s are pretty much gone:
But with prices where they are now and 15.5T diff the break-even for 90W/th S9s is 6.3c. Seem like there'd still be a bunch of S9s out there running on cheap power at this level. Maybe even some large farms that are sitting on their S9s waiting to see what happens after the halving before making any decisions on purchasing new gear. Maybe the 15eh of new hash since the new year are just some S9s getting turned back on after the pump back up to 9k.
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Latest Block: 614518 (2 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 106.4240% (1655 / 1555.10 expected, 99.9 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 14776367535688.64XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 15695146162141 and 15727542153962
Next Difficulty Change: between +6.2179% and +6.4371%
Previous Retarget: January 14, 2020 at 6:40 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): Monday at 10:23 PM (in 2d 8h 32m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest): Monday at 11:02 PM (in 2d 9h 11m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 3h 43m 5s and 13d 4h 22m 6s
Current Pace: 106.4240% (1655 / 1555.10 expected, 99.9 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 14776367535688.64XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 15695146162141 and 15727542153962
Next Difficulty Change: between +6.2179% and +6.4371%
Previous Retarget: January 14, 2020 at 6:40 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): Monday at 10:23 PM (in 2d 8h 32m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest): Monday at 11:02 PM (in 2d 9h 11m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 3h 43m 5s and 13d 4h 22m 6s
Looks like 5-7 %
a new high and just about 118eh.
i made my share of errors. but thats okay 👌. live and learn.
OK, 2 times is better but still not a trend...
Bitcoin has a very short data, it's just about a decade old, so two times is actually a trend, given that each of those cycles took about 2-3 years to complete both bear and bull cycles, this would carry a lot less weight if the chart was 30-40 years old, but hey this is Bitcoin, it can do whatever it wants to do.
coins
gear
cash
debt
gear
cash
debt
I wish I took all of these aspects seriously when I first started mining, I was very reckless, made a lot of bad decisions, I never bothered about anything but to blindly increase my hashrate which is not bad but when done without means of calculations and research becomes so, let alone investing in non-btc gears that have short lived before coming a door stop.
Things now have changed for me, there is a lot into it than just me having fun trying out mining, I take mining very seriously now and I think of every possible outcome before I make a move.
I mine on the cheap. I sell some I hold some. I walk a tightrope.
coins
gear
cash
debt
I am always checking ratio of the four items above.
Also diff to price ratio gets checked constantly.
I have found flat diff of 4 jumps in a row can be predicted often.
coins
gear
cash
debt
I am always checking ratio of the four items above.
Also diff to price ratio gets checked constantly.
I have found flat diff of 4 jumps in a row can be predicted often.
OK, 2 times is better but still not a trend...
I'm normally right there with you, better to be surprised by the upside than the down. I'm not a trader though and haven't even sold any BTC to pay my power or hosting fees for several years. So I can afford to be optimistic...
. HODL HODL...
I'm normally right there with you, better to be surprised by the upside than the down. I'm not a trader though and haven't even sold any BTC to pay my power or hosting fees for several years. So I can afford to be optimistic...
. HODL HODL... ... but we only broke under it once and that one time we stayed under it for a year. If that happened multiple times, I might agree with you. But 1 event doesn't make a trend.
But sir !
I'm definitely no expert though, just feeling optimistic today 
.
.Neither am I, I always try to be realistic, hope for the best and expect the worst.
I am just not sure which one of the three moves works best for me.
It depends, if your power is cheap and you are in for the long run (HODL) then price drop now would be best for you, difficulty drops a big time, you get to mine more BTC before the rally and of course the opposite is correct as well. To me I don't really care, I will be happy in both cases, as long as my gears don't burn or stop hashing I will always be happy.
it is funny the two posts above represent what I think could happen
A price drop to 6000
Price rise to 12000
It has taken me since 2017 to be in a position that a crash to 6000 would be okay I am setup to handle it.
I rise to 12000 would be okay I am setup to handle it.
a flat line at 8600 would be okay I am setup to handle it.
I am just not sure which one of the three moves works best for me.
I don't know what to root for.
It is a nice problem to have.
Difficulty will meander for now slowly rising if we don't crash.
A price drop to 6000
Price rise to 12000
It has taken me since 2017 to be in a position that a crash to 6000 would be okay I am setup to handle it.
I rise to 12000 would be okay I am setup to handle it.
a flat line at 8600 would be okay I am setup to handle it.
I am just not sure which one of the three moves works best for me.
I don't know what to root for.
It is a nice problem to have.
Difficulty will meander for now slowly rising if we don't crash.
I'd agree that the 200EMA would represent resistance, but we only broke under it once and that one time we stayed under it for a year. If that happened multiple times, I might agree with you. But 1 event doesn't make a trend.
We have positive pressure on price as the halving approaches, and with most of the plustoken scam coins already sold a big downward pressure on price is now pretty much gone.
I'm definitely no expert though, just feeling optimistic today.
We have positive pressure on price as the halving approaches, and with most of the plustoken scam coins already sold a big downward pressure on price is now pretty much gone.
I'm definitely no expert though, just feeling optimistic today
. Now at $9150, cracked the 200 day moving average. Break-even for a 90 W/TH S9 is now at 7c. Might see some S9s get turned back on if this keeps up...
We have not cracked the 200 day, price is like a rubber band, going past a certain level means nothing if price can't stay above it, in simple analysis trading terms, we need at least a daily candle to close above the 200ma, which never happened.
I honestly don't see us doing this, and I think we are heading back to 6k (I hope I am wrong), and here is why:
Nothing fancy, only the 200EMA on the daily, in the past, when we broke it we stayed below it for about a year, I don't see us getting out of this mess before Q3-Q4 this year.
As for difficulty, I expect us to keep rising slowly while price goes down, due to mainly S9s and the like leaving the network and getting replaced by more efficient gears from 55w/th and below, when the halving happens. a different story will be told.
Now at $9150, cracked the 200 day moving average. Break-even for a 90 W/TH S9 is now at 7c. Might see some S9s get turned back on if this keeps up...
Well if we are now moving up to match ½ ing we could approach 13,800.00 In March
Now at $9150, cracked the 200 day moving average. Break-even for a 90 W/TH S9 is now at 7c. Might see some S9s get turned back on if this keeps up...
cool you were freaking me out.
i was having a lot of conspiracy thoughts. about this.
i was having a lot of conspiracy thoughts. about this.
We cracked 9000
and diff has slipped to 3.9%
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Latest Block: 613470 (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 103.8811% (607 / 584.32 expected, 22.68 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 14776367535688.64XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 15066742971008 and 15354888290552
Next Difficulty Change: between +1.9651% and +3.9152%
Previous Retarget: last Tuesday at 6:40 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): January 28, 2020 at 6:07 AM (in 9d 10h 3m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest): January 28, 2020 at 12:15 PM (in 9d 16h 11m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 11h 26m 48s and 13d 17h 34m 43s
Current Pace: 103.8811% (607 / 584.32 expected, 22.68 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 14776367535688.64XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 15066742971008 and 15354888290552
Next Difficulty Change: between +1.9651% and +3.9152%
Previous Retarget: last Tuesday at 6:40 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): January 28, 2020 at 6:07 AM (in 9d 10h 3m 35s)
Next Retarget (latest): January 28, 2020 at 12:15 PM (in 9d 16h 11m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 13d 11h 26m 48s and 13d 17h 34m 43s
I could use this to be true at the next jump 9k price and 15.0t diff.
Maybe try a different browser, we are 34.58 blocks ahead, not 170.
if we are only 34 ahead then the estimated blocks should be 514 blocks as appears on your image, 514*10mins/60 = 85 hours or 3.5 days, it's now
2:08 PM
Saturday, January 18, 2020
block 612,863 was mined at exactly 2020-01-14 23:40 GMT
2020-01-18 14:08 - 2020-01-14 23:40 = 3.5 days or about 520 blocks, which is means it's true that we are just 34.5 ahead and not 170, I have to double check my previous calculation.
I figured out what was going wrong, it was not my browser, it was not a glitch, it was just the date on my PC , it was 1 day behind, it was set on 17th when today is actually 18th. cryptothis.com uses my PC's date and time to calculate the expected blocks, but it uses it's date and time and probably full node to track current block numbers, so the final calculation was less expected blocks and more blocks ahead.
to further elaborate on the matter, I purposely changed my PC's date to 15th and I got this
When I fix the date and time, I get the real normal results.
And just for fun and to please my eyes, I set the date to 20 and obviously I got the calculations we all want to see.
TL;DR https://diff.cryptothis.com/ uses your PC local time, if it's not accurate - you get inaccurate results.
Maybe try a different browser, we are 34.58 blocks ahead, not 170.
136EH would bring us to 19E diff, 100EH would settle to about 14T diff, so if we keep oscillating between the two we'll end up at around 16.5T diff.
Here are #s at current diff:
Here are #s at 16.5T
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/
136EH would bring us to 19E diff, 100EH would settle to about 14T diff, so if we keep oscillating between the two we'll end up at around 16.5T diff.
Here are #s at current diff:
Here are #s at 16.5T
some glitch on your part or the websites part
Are you sure? How about now?
https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Allow me to do a manual calcuation, it won't be 100% accurete, but at least 98% , which will be enough to elimiate the "glitch" possibility.
Last block of the previous difficulty was block number 612,863 , and the first block of the current target is block 612,864
block 612,864 was mined at exactly 2020-01-14 23:42 GMT , it's now
EDIT: I made a mistake here, it's 2020-01-18 12:31 not 2020-01-17 12:31. more explanation on the second post.
So we have just about 61.5 hours , 61.5*6 = 369 blocks, as I type we should be mining block 612,864+369 = 613233 however, we are now at block 613,404 , in other words we are 171 blocks ahead.
We are at 171 : 369 = 46% ahead, it's very unlikely that we will keep up with this base, but this proves that there is no glitch here.
https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart
We got to as high as 136.5E , we remained above 130E for a while, Phill, please do correct me if i am wrong. Thanks.
some glitch on your part or the websites part
Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/
Latest Block: 613176 (14 minutes ago)
Current Pace: 107.9554% (313 / 289.93 expected, 23.07 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 14776367535688.64XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 15097666737185 and 15962435296108
Next Difficulty Change: between +2.1744% and +8.0268%
Previous Retarget: last Tuesday at 6:40 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): January 27, 2020 at 5:55 PM (in 10d 22h 55m 2s)
Next Retarget (latest): January 28, 2020 at 11:35 AM (in 11d 16h 35m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 12d 23h 14m 22s and 13d 16h 54m 30s
Current Pace: 107.9554% (313 / 289.93 expected, 23.07 ahead)
Current Difficulty: 14776367535688.64XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty: between 15097666737185 and 15962435296108
Next Difficulty Change: between +2.1744% and +8.0268%
Previous Retarget: last Tuesday at 6:40 PM
Next Retarget (earliest): January 27, 2020 at 5:55 PM (in 10d 22h 55m 2s)
Next Retarget (latest): January 28, 2020 at 11:35 AM (in 11d 16h 35m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length: between 12d 23h 14m 22s and 13d 16h 54m 30s
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