Topic: It is 2020 time for a new diff thread. - page 37. (Read 14620 times)

I have seen some crazy projected difficulty adjustment, but nothing like this before



https://diff.cryptothis.com/

we are 160 blocks ahead


from https://btc.com/

we are doing 1 block a minute, 2 blocks a minute at some points!, not sure what is actually happening, but am sure we will slow down big time, let's wait and see how things go.

There is a gear factor for sure. Bitmain surely wants to sell.

Of course bsv and bch can use the same gear.

I have a colleague I trust who has been studying this for years now. He predicts that at the top of the next 4 year bull run cycle, mining hashrate will be at 80 gigawatts and the minimum mining price will be around $50k/btc. He believes BTC price will land somewhere between $140k-$220k at the next ATH.

He points to things like this : https://www.coindesk.com/sbi-gmo-to-rent-capacity-at-massive-bitcoin-mine-in-texas-report

and also to Bitmains goal of selling 30 million new miners in the next 2 years. If they hit that goal, and maintain 75% market share, it would equate with 80 gigawatts of power on the network.

I know smaller miners I talk to laugh at the idea that mining growth has an effect on price, but one can argue, looking historically, that mining/price relationship is like the chicken/egg scenario. He makes the argument that during bull runs, miners fomo into mining - they can't help themselves - they buy as much or more than they can afford as profitability outpaces hash. Eventually hash piles up too and price goes down.  But the hash stays mostly in creating a new much higher price floor. Then the cycle begins all over again.

He believes as mining evolves the larger players will become utility owners and governments. The big farms in that article will become common place and new bigger farms will emerge.

---

So  about 7% jump in diff

and about 22% price jump

22-7 = 15%  net gain in favor of miners.

14th miner  at 100 watts a th  it earns about  2.16   after adjustment it will earn 2.01

10 cent power =  $3.36
 9                         3.02
 8                         2.68
 7                         2.35
 6                         2.02   2.01  breakeven     this is after the jump of 7%
 5                         1.68
 4                         1.34
 3                         1.01

Funny thing is people were saying the same thing in 2016 and before that in 2012 and in 2010 people didn't even spend the energy to say the things, thinking no one cared anyway. So you are in a long tradition my friend, welcome.


These are the emotions even "old-timers" experience near a bottom. Its really funny how many people swear bitcoin is DED. I mean less than five years ago it was at $200. Now its dying at $7k.

Not quite sure  if you are on topic, but  you do have a few interesting points.

I look back at 2019  and I wonder  if the negative viewpoint you push is what happens for 2020.

2019  was a mixed bag.  Our team  earn more then 8 coins  but spent a lot to do so.  I am 62 and will be 63 very soon.

I own a piece of 1.9ph   and  I am not sure I want to keep doing this.  It has become a job for me  at a time I don't feel healthy enough to do the job.

Some days I completely agree with just about all you wrote.  Other days I wonder will a strong pump happen.

Fundamentally a digital coin is very much interchangeable.

BTC + NMC  merged mined  is not very different then LTC and Doge coin merge mined.

In fact  doge is clearly better then  NMC.

I will  continue mining but  2020 may see me reduce all gear  to a few small machines.  I will decide sooner then July.

By now experienced miners should recognize the trend that profitability will ALWAYS reduce to the bare minimum margins acceptable by large farm

It is no coincidence that the price ALWAYS reduces to match the efficiency improvements and hovers nears the costs of 10c electricity.
Notice the new gear is already useless to mine at anything over 10 cents/KwHr
Again that is NOT an accident....

So THAT is the agreed level acceptable such that large investors can sustain the monopoly without large losses
Even at that level most ops still mine at a loss but recover profit by local tax write offs that mere mortals won't be privileged to..

Seems obvious to me that the price is being artificially supported by large whales. Giant centralized private farms make up over 50% of the hash rate.
Public pools who service other large miner ops fill in most of the other 50%
Smalltime individuals represent a minuscule portion of the hashrate

That means mining is and has been in the hands of BIG BUSINESS for a LONG time...

But WHY?
China is by far the largest HOLDER of Bitcoins...WHY?
China is also the largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds.....

Bitcoin is an insurance policy to protect the MASSIVE VAST DEBT it holds from US dollar depreciation
EVERY hit the US makes on the Chinese economy gets met with a large dump of US bonds and a spike in Bitcoin.
EVERY concession made to China coincides with a large DUMP of Bitcoin converted into Chinese RMB and US bonds/stocks.

ONLY this kind of massive volume can sway the price significantly....irrespective of the public Bitcoin holders/market actions.

China is completely committed and compliant with the US to maintain and protect the current FIAT monetary system controlled by the B.I.S.
However this loyalty comes with a price that the US must cede a larger portion of the money monopoly they have used to exploit China.
The US political system is currently divided into the 2 camps ...one wishes to maintain the gravy train the other knows the US is fucked and are desperately trying to ride China's coattails during the shift of power.
Neither can afford to have Bitcoin threaten the system.

ANY significant price increase can ONLY come from a MASSIVE purchase (BILLIONS!)...And who would do that? Why?

EVERY large bag holder knows ANY significant jump will only give an opportunity for weak to cash out.....Speculators and exchanges will be MOST eager to take some profit.
Often this is a PLANNED subsidy injected to the market by FREE worthless FIAT to suck in new investors and keep the illusion of value afloat.

The is a standard practice in the stock market.

The top ten wallets hold more than 85% of ALL BITCOIN ever mined....funny how that is same ratio that the Big Banks hold of the worlds FIAT and DEBT!.

The next halving event will eliminate the remaining competition and complete the planned takeover of the Bitcoin threat.

Bitcoin will always exist but will be reduced (Has already been) to being a novelty commodity for investors like Silver or Gold that individuals may see some gains but have no real effect on the market.

A few months ago I thought we'd be at 16T diff by now so 13.8T is a nice surprise. Gives me some hope that the 10 series Canaan miners I bought last year might get close to breaking even. Still need a good bull run before the halving for that to happen though, probably was not a wise purchase with my current hosting fees. I got more S17s and S17 pros than the Avalon gear so not a bit hit. Too bad Canaan didn't give coupons/credit like Bitmain did.

20T to 25T diff at the end of 2020 seems overly optimistic. It doesn't look like the efficiency increase (looking like 20% for next generation 5nm) is going to make as much of an impact as large players with super cheap power. These 1000 MW farms in the works must be in the sub 4 cent range. They can buy up all the S9s that are super cheap now and bump the nethash up a lot. If they get newer equipment it will be a huge increase.

30K would be nice...

well if coins move to 30k all is well with btc.

lets hope you are correct.

My guess is BTC price will be at around 30,000$ by dec 2020 , 60% of mining gears will be S17 (or equivalent), 40% will be a mix of the new 5NM and old S9s or the like for those who have free power, I also believe difficulty will rise close to 30T based on both price increment and gears efficiency. You might say halving will make it a bit harder, that's true, but if BTC price does 400% , it doesn't really matter much if rewards are cut in half.

Anyway, we still have a long way to go, allow me to post the first screenshot in this thread



we are 6 blocks away from the first difficulty adjustment in 2020 (610847).

feel free to make guesses and or predictions.

we will move to about 13.6 diff. on Jan 1.

my guess for dec 31 2020 is under 25 maybe under 20.

lot of factors for 2020.

new gear coming?

5nm due in april may or june.

1/2 ing in april or may

price.

reserved.

will set it up in about 10 hours.