[LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) - page 237.

BitThink

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Quote from: dhenson on September 22, 2013, 10:40:12 PM

Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 10:17:04 PM

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002. They have a long way to achieve even that.

I'm late for dinner so this is the last I'll post on the issue (I'm sure others are tired of this by now anyway). edit...For this example I've pegged the network hash rate at 1300 TH. I realize this is low, but changing it wouldn't effect the outcome ratio.

As you can see, I've granted Labcoin 20TH on Nov. 1 (low) and Asicminer 100TH on Nov. 1 (high). Based on a 50% valuation, labcoin is undervalued by half at current price whereas Asicminer is overvalued by 2.86 x.

Obviously both assets should have risk and potential factored in. What this should show is that Labcoin is undervalued due to risk, and Asicminer is overvalued due to potential.

It is up to each investor to determine at what price point to invest, however, I believe that once burnside and Labcoin work their shit out and get the warning removed we will see less risk therefore a higher price point.

I agree AM is still over priced, if they don't increase the hash rate soon. But again, ignoring hardware sale is not correct here. Many people complaining that they cannot reach ROI with the miner they bought. So selling 1GH in one week almost equals to mining with it forever. Remember money today is more valuable than it one years later. Actually, hardware sales is the most important advantage of AM and Labcoin compared with a pure mining contract, such as PETA MINE.

I hope Labcoin can fix their issues now and get their 65nm chips as soon as possible. But comparing with AM only in Hashing rate is misleading. I will not do that even when I actually have ask orders waiting to be filled.

velacreations

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Quote

Also, given your own price model, they would only need to get 1.15% of the network to justify their current price. Not much of a difference from 1.0. So essentially the current price isn't really out of line with your analysis anyway.

Except that they don't have the 1.15% of the network to support it, and even by your calculations, won't hit that for months.

You need the 1% of the network to get that value for the stock, that's the whole point.

Quote

If they can maintain that pace they'll be at 5.6Th/s in two weeks.

Yikes, so what, about .4% of the network?

FloatesMcgoates

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Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 11:07:03 PM

Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 10:17:04 PM

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002. They have a long way to achieve even that.

Right, and if they get 2% they'd be worth 0.004, and if they get 5% they'd be at 0.01. We don't know what the potential outcome is, but at this moment they have about 0.06 - 0.08% which they build up over 2-3 days, with 400Gh/s added in one day (going from 350-750Gh/s)

If they can maintain that pace they'll be at 5.6Th/s in two weeks. On the other hand we could also see an increasing pace over the next few days as their outsourced provider ramps up and so on.

That said, being kept in the dark like this is quite annoying. It would be nice if they showed pics of their setup, where they are getting components from and so on. The share price would probably be a lot higher if we could actually see progress being made, rather then simply speculating about it.

But either way, they've basically set a 'minimum' expectation. It no longer seems like this stock will "go to zero" and investors are risking 100% of their money. The rest of the price is just gambling on whether or not they can actually pull it off.

Also, given your own price model, they would only need to get 1.15% of the network to justify their current price. Not much of a difference from 1.0. So essentially the current price isn't really out of line with your analysis anyway.

Doubt they can maintain any pace given how hashrate seems to have decreased between yesterday and today

Ytterbium

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Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 10:17:04 PM

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002. They have a long way to achieve even that.

Right, and if they get 2% they'd be worth 0.004, and if they get 5% they'd be at 0.01. We don't know what the potential outcome is, but at this moment they have about 0.06 - 0.08% which they build up over 2-3 days, with 400Gh/s added in one day (going from 350-750Gh/s)

If they can maintain that pace they'll be at 5.6Th/s in two weeks. On the other hand we could also see an increasing pace over the next few days as their outsourced provider ramps up and so on.

That said, being kept in the dark like this is quite annoying. It would be nice if they showed pics of their setup, where they are getting components from and so on. The share price would probably be a lot higher if we could actually see progress being made, rather then simply speculating about it.

But either way, they've basically set a 'minimum' expectation. It no longer seems like this stock will "go to zero" and investors are risking 100% of their money. The rest of the price is just gambling on whether or not they can actually pull it off.

Also, given your own price model, they would only need to get 1.15% of the network to justify their current price. Not much of a difference from 1.0. So essentially the current price isn't really out of line with your analysis anyway.

velacreations

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So you are only comparing one part of the AM revenue with the entire (hopeful) revenue of Labcoin?

Why not compare the actual dividends paid last week? Oh right, LC doesn't have any...

It's crazy that you just make up numbers to try and show LC has more value than it actually does. AM has 70% of the hash rate in your example right now earning coins. LC has less than 4%. Nice try.

Now, go back when AM was getting going and they had only paid a handful of dividends. The API rates were 70%! You're gonna try to say that LC has more potential now than AM did in it's first month of dividends? And less risk? Ha!

You said it yourself: 1% of the network = .002 value

dhenson

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Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 10:17:04 PM

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002. They have a long way to achieve even that.

I'm late for dinner so this is the last I'll post on the issue (I'm sure others are tired of this by now anyway). edit...For this example I've pegged the network hash rate at 1300 TH. I realize this is low, but changing it wouldn't effect the outcome ratio.

As you can see, I've granted Labcoin 20TH on Nov. 1 (low) and Asicminer 100TH on Nov. 1 (high). Based on a 50% valuation, labcoin is undervalued by half at current price whereas Asicminer is overvalued by 2.86 x.

Obviously both assets should have risk and potential factored in. What this should show is that Labcoin is undervalued due to risk, and Asicminer is overvalued due to potential.

It is up to each investor to determine at what price point to invest, however, I believe that once burnside and Labcoin work their shit out and get the warning removed we will see less risk therefore a higher price point.

edit... I would further speculate that it is much easier for a company to remove risk than to provide greater potential. Locking shares, pictures of hashing rigs and steady hashing rate increases would remove much of the currently baked in risk of labcoin.

BitCsByBit

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Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 10:25:11 PM

Quote from: Bitcycle on September 22, 2013, 10:23:00 PM

Just move your bid up, dude.

I know you can't sell at current levels, but you should.
When more people see/do the math, they'll come the same conclusion.

Quote from: Bitcycle on September 22, 2013, 10:23:00 PM

I see you do plan to keep repeating the same thing.

and I see you can't provide a valid counter point...

At least it is refreshing to see that you have moved on from screaming "it's a scam", but there is really no point in repeating yourself.
State your point and move on, otherwise I'll suspect that you have alternative motives!

velacreations

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Quote from: Bitcycle on September 22, 2013, 10:23:00 PM

Just move your bid up, dude.

I know you can't sell at current levels, but you should.
When more people see/do the math, they'll come the same conclusion.

Quote from: Bitcycle on September 22, 2013, 10:23:00 PM

I see you do plan to keep repeating the same thing.

and I see you can't provide a valid counter point...

Bitcycle

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Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 10:17:04 PM

Quote from: dhenson on September 22, 2013, 10:10:08 PM

Please don't insult us by pretending you don't understand that you can't just value an asset on it's CURRENT hash rate.

of course not, I'm valuing this on THEIR FUTURE hash rate. Actually, it's based on their "promised" hash rate, which we know is greatly exaggerated. At their current hash rate, well, let's just say .002 is optomistic.

What other revenue are you expecting before Nov? Will Labcoin be selling Gen 1 hardware as everyone else is releasing Gen2? We can't rely on things they COULD do, we have to rely on what they are actually doing or likely to do.

AM has a current value not just due to their risk and potential profit, but also because THEY ARE ACTUALLY DELIVERING DIVIDENDS at those levels. When Labcon has the track record of AM, they might warrant an APR less than 50%.

I have yet to see you guys show any realistic scenario where they exceed my calculations.

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002. They have a long way to achieve even that.

I see you do plan to keep repeating the same thing.

Just move your bid up, dude.

velacreations

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Quote from: dhenson on September 22, 2013, 10:10:08 PM

Please don't insult us by pretending you don't understand that you can't just value an asset on it's CURRENT hash rate.

of course not, I'm valuing this on THEIR FUTURE hash rate. Actually, it's based on their "promised" hash rate, which we know is greatly exaggerated. At their current hash rate, well, let's just say .002 is optomistic.

What other revenue are you expecting before Nov? Will Labcoin be selling Gen 1 hardware as everyone else is releasing Gen2? We can't rely on things they COULD do, we have to rely on what they are actually doing or likely to do.

AM has a current value not just due to their risk and potential profit, but also because THEY ARE ACTUALLY DELIVERING DIVIDENDS at those levels. AM is CURRENTLY selling hardware. Is Labcoin? When Labcon has the track record of AM, they might warrant an APR less than 50%.

I have yet to see you guys show any realistic scenario where they exceed my calculations.

Like I said, IF they can get 1% of the network, they'll be worth .002. They have a long way to achieve even that.

dhenson

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Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 10:03:19 PM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 09:53:49 PM

They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule.

how do you figure that? They promised 2 TH/s 2 weeks ago, and even that was lower than they predicted (4-6TH/s).

I'd say they are at least 2 weeks behind schedule, as they haven't even met the hash rate they promised 2 weeks ago.

The point of the math is even if they do hit 20 TH/s in 2 weeks (highly unlikely), their fair value is lower than the current price. The best case scenario at this point puts them worth less than .002 in 2 weeks.

You are deliberately excluding potential profits. Though I admit standard logic doesn't really seem to apply as there isn't a whole lot of risk in getting left behind with this stock. If past performance is any indication, the price can and will turn around on a dime.

If we applied your logic to your beloved AM, their share price would be worth .33 btc/share @ 50% valuation. (at 50TH/1100TH network with 4000 coins a day, 400,000 shares). Obviously their risk is much lower and the potential profits are baked in.

Please don't insult us by pretending you don't understand that you can't just value an asset on it's CURRENT hash rate.

velacreations

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Quote from: Bitcycle on September 22, 2013, 10:05:14 PM

Keep repeating it, maybe your bid will get hit. Roll Eyes

sorry, I won't be paying above fair value for something this risky.

EDIT: interesting that you don't try to counter my point.

BitCsByBit

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Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 09:15:19 PM

If labcoin can stabilize their hardware issues they should definitely consider selling hardware. People will likely still pay a pretty big premium for hardware that ships same day.

Plus, if you ship it out "for hackers" at a low price some of the talented hackers out there might be able to fix the stability issues (as we saw with Avalons running over 350Mhz)

Good point.

Avalon chips were pushed to stable 450MH/s from the standard 282MH/s.
Bitfury chips are pushed to 4GH/s from the standard of around 2GH/s.

There are some talented developers out there.

Bitcycle

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Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 10:03:19 PM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 09:53:49 PM

They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule.

how do you figure that? They promised 2 TH/s 2 weeks ago, and even that was lower than they predicted (4-6TH/s).

I'd say they are at least 2 weeks behind schedule, as they haven't even met the hash rate they promised 2 weeks ago.

The point of the math is even if they do hit 20 TH/s in 2 weeks (highly unlikely), their fair value is lower than the current price. The best case scenario at this point puts them worth less than .002 in 2 weeks.

Keep repeating it, maybe your bid will get hit. Roll Eyes

velacreations

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Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 09:53:49 PM

They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule.

how do you figure that? They promised 2 TH/s 2 weeks ago, and even that was lower than they predicted (4-6TH/s).

I'd say they are at least 2 weeks behind schedule, as they haven't even met the hash rate they promised 2 weeks ago.

The point of the math is even if they do hit 20 TH/s in 2 weeks (highly unlikely), their fair value is lower than the current price. The best case scenario at this point puts them worth less than .002 in 2 weeks.

Ytterbium

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I don't know that "the market" actually expects them to hit 20Th/s. They've been underperforming, and they're about a week behind schedule. But they do have a hashrate, and that hashrate has been going up. A little consistency and a steady increase should help get the share price back up a little bit, and hopefully indicate they are ironing out kinks and getting things fixed and ready.

Bitcycle

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Lot of bid pressure building. Looks like there's more people wanting to get in than out at the moment.

If your bids aren't getting filled, maybe you should bid higher.

velacreations

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Quote from: BitThink on September 22, 2013, 09:23:50 PM

I guess that's the reason we've seen another promise, 20TH in 2 weeks. This is announced even before they have fixed the longlasting problem forbidding them from bring up 2TH.

in 2 weeks, they brought .75 TH/s online (but promised at least 4 TH/s by now), so they are currently under performing. In 2 weeks, they'll be lucky to top 10 TH/s.

BitThink

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there's one kind of business man, who always show investors bright future even themselves don't believe. For example, a small startup founder will promise 100 million revenue in 2 years just to attract investors. Lying becomes these guys' habit, so they keep lying even when it is completely harmful and unnecessary.

I guess that's the reason we've seen another promise, 20TH in 2 weeks. This is announced even before they have fixed the longlasting problem forbidding them from bring up 2TH. Moreover, why '2 weeks' becomes so popular now? After delaying again and again due to the endless tweaking, why they never learn to be smart and be conservative in promising?

Ytterbium

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If labcoin can stabilize their hardware issues they should definitely consider selling hardware. People will likely still pay a pretty big premium for hardware that ships same day.

Plus, if you ship it out "for hackers" at a low price some of the talented hackers out there might be able to fix the stability issues (as we saw with Avalons running over 350Mhz)

Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) - page 237. (Read 1079974 times)