[LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) - page 239.

VolanicEruptor

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Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 06:54:14 PM

Quote from: BitCsByBit on September 22, 2013, 06:45:42 PM

Thanks for the calculation.
Can someone do a quick calc for 20TH in 2 weeks time with 30% annual return.

20TH would be around 2%.

56,000 (bitcoins mined in 2 weeks) x .02 (% of network) = 1120 BTC (mined by 20 TH/s)

1120 BTC / 10,000,000 shares x .7 (30% withheld) = .0000784 btc dividend per share

.0000784 x 26 (per year) / .3 (30% APR) = .0068 btc per share

No one will give Labcoin 30% APR. 70%, maybe.

check my math, it could be wrong.

close to my calculation, but we will see 2PH in 2 weeks, and I don't think investors will let the share price drop so far that we would see 70% APR..
edit: I say that because it seems slightly overvalued right now as it is, considering the shit we've been through recently.

VolanicEruptor

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Quote from: BitCsByBit on September 22, 2013, 06:45:42 PM

Quote from: dhenson on September 22, 2013, 04:26:22 PM

Quote from: JohnyBigs on September 22, 2013, 04:15:28 PM

This can anyone run some numbers? Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

5btc/share is a ridiculous estimate (sorry, but it is).

Assuming the global network hashrate is 6PH by Jan 1 and Labcoin is hashing @ 500TH/s, that is 8.33% of the global network.

A conservitive estimate of global bitcoins mined in a 2 week period is 56,000 (4,000 x 14).

8.33% of 56,000 is 4666.648 bitcoins divided by 10,000,000 shares is .0004666 / share.

~30% is removed for costs/reinvestment etc.

Final result: .0003266/share for the 2 week period. (roughly .0085 annually) for a share price of .0339 @ 25% annual return.

Of course this is entirely unrealistic as nobody would at this point trust labcoin enough to be happy with a 25% annual return.

Thanks for the calculation.
Can someone do a quick calc for 20TH in 2 weeks time with 30% annual return.

20TH would be around 2%.

At this rate we will see 2PH/S Total Network hash rate.

So the next step is finding out the percentage of 20TH out of 2000TH. That one is easy: 1%

Now a total of ~4000BTC are mined every day on the network. This number never really changes much.. so LC would score 1% of 4000BTC every day.

1% of 4000BTC for LC is 40 BTC/day

Since we would get weekly dividends, we need to multiply 40BTC by 7 days which is 280BTC/week

Now we need to divide 280BTC by 10,000,000 shares which is .000028BTC/share every week

.000028BTC/week works out to .001456BTC/year. Since share prices seem to reflect 25%-50% return, this means LC should be roughly valued at about double what it is now, with 20TH deployed.

edit: I didn't see that you wrote "for 30%" return.. in which case we would see share price at .0048

bobboooiie

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People who are making math about share price ITT are pretty damn blind... You are basing it on AMs share price when they had NO one to compete with for like 5+ months AND they were selling out the equipment too AND THE SHARE PRICE WAS STILL overpriced at that time as we see it now (30% annual return isnt even close enough in mining world). Labcoin is not going to have even close to the same environment. And dont forget they are already 2-3 weeks behind where they could make make majority of their bitcoins with not much of a hashrate

velacreations

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Quote from: BitCsByBit on September 22, 2013, 06:45:42 PM

Thanks for the calculation.
Can someone do a quick calc for 20TH in 2 weeks time with 30% annual return.

20TH would be around 2%.

56,000 (bitcoins mined in 2 weeks) x .02 (% of network) = 1120 BTC (mined by 20 TH/s)

1120 BTC / 10,000,000 shares x .7 (30% withheld) = .0000784 btc dividend per share

.0000784 x 26 (per year) / .3 (30% APR) = .0068 btc per share

No one will give Labcoin 30% APR. 70%, maybe.

check my math, it could be wrong.

velacreations

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Quote from: BitCsByBit on September 22, 2013, 06:34:48 PM

That is incorrect as lately friedcat has been withholding the money from the hardware sales and dividends only included proceeds from the mining.

FC is withholding from revenue, dividends still include hardware sales.

BitCsByBit

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Quote from: dhenson on September 22, 2013, 04:26:22 PM

Quote from: JohnyBigs on September 22, 2013, 04:15:28 PM

This can anyone run some numbers? Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

5btc/share is a ridiculous estimate (sorry, but it is).

Assuming the global network hashrate is 6PH by Jan 1 and Labcoin is hashing @ 500TH/s, that is 8.33% of the global network.

A conservitive estimate of global bitcoins mined in a 2 week period is 56,000 (4,000 x 14).

8.33% of 56,000 is 4666.648 bitcoins divided by 10,000,000 shares is .0004666 / share.

~30% is removed for costs/reinvestment etc.

Final result: .0003266/share for the 2 week period. (roughly .0085 annually) for a share price of .0339 @ 25% annual return.

Of course this is entirely unrealistic as nobody would at this point trust labcoin enough to be happy with a 25% annual return.

Thanks for the calculation.
Can someone do a quick calc for 20TH in 2 weeks time with 30% annual return.

20TH would be around 2%.

JohnyBigs

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Quote from: BitCsByBit on September 22, 2013, 06:34:48 PM

Quote from: BitThink on September 22, 2013, 05:31:56 PM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 04:33:27 PM

Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 04:10:57 PM

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s. Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

Impossible to know since we can't know what the overall difficulty will be.

According to this there's 7PH/s of announced hashrate coming online by December 2013. It could be higher, of if we're lucky other projects may fail and it'll be lower.

If it is 7Ph, and they have 0.5Ph that would be 7% of the network. Looking at ASCIMiner's 7 day average hashrate, they're at about, maybe 45TH/s?

Total network hashrate is 0.99PH/s, according to bitcoin watch, so ASICMiner has maybe 4.5% of the network.

If you want to ignore ASICMiner's hardware sales (which the market is probably doing given they don't have anything beyond their 130nm stuff to sell yet) then you just multiply ASICMiner's share price by 0.04 go compensate for the difference in the number of shares. (400,000/10,000,00)

You get a share price of 0.064 if they were at 4.5%, and 0.0096 if they were at 7% and valued the same as ASICMiner.

Of course, it's unlikely they would be, given AM's long track record and Labcoin's dubious one.

Currently more than half of AM's dividend comes from hardware sales. It cannot be ignore at all. Moreover, there's an announcement of 1PH by the end of this year. Without this, the price may already way below 0.5 BTC. Come back to LC, even with 500T, the price will be 0.01 at best that time and will drop quickly if there's no clear future plan (such as gen 3).

That is incorrect as lately friedcat has been withholding the money from the hardware sales and dividends only included proceeds from the mining.

Maybe burnside should put a big scam warning, ohh I forgot he only cares to do that against his competition, as peta a complete fail doesnt have a warning.

BitCsByBit

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Quote from: BitThink on September 22, 2013, 05:31:56 PM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 04:33:27 PM

Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 04:10:57 PM

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s. Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

Impossible to know since we can't know what the overall difficulty will be.

According to this there's 7PH/s of announced hashrate coming online by December 2013. It could be higher, of if we're lucky other projects may fail and it'll be lower.

If it is 7Ph, and they have 0.5Ph that would be 7% of the network. Looking at ASCIMiner's 7 day average hashrate, they're at about, maybe 45TH/s?

Total network hashrate is 0.99PH/s, according to bitcoin watch, so ASICMiner has maybe 4.5% of the network.

If you want to ignore ASICMiner's hardware sales (which the market is probably doing given they don't have anything beyond their 130nm stuff to sell yet) then you just multiply ASICMiner's share price by 0.04 go compensate for the difference in the number of shares. (400,000/10,000,00)

You get a share price of 0.064 if they were at 4.5%, and 0.0096 if they were at 7% and valued the same as ASICMiner.

Of course, it's unlikely they would be, given AM's long track record and Labcoin's dubious one.

Currently more than half of AM's dividend comes from hardware sales. It cannot be ignore at all. Moreover, there's an announcement of 1PH by the end of this year. Without this, the price may already way below 0.5 BTC. Come back to LC, even with 500T, the price will be 0.01 at best that time and will drop quickly if there's no clear future plan (such as gen 3).

That is incorrect as lately friedcat has been withholding the money from the hardware sales and dividends only included proceeds from the mining.

alexius89

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Gridcoin Foundation

Quote

.08 would be amazing especially if you jumped in at IPO

I'm hoping we can break .025-.035

surely!!

jeffhuys

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We've just reached 10BTC! Grin

https://blockchain.info/address/17psAW21J4twanAFWmbcd5WdX2pKeX3trm

damiano

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103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.

Quote from: canth on September 22, 2013, 05:15:26 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on September 22, 2013, 04:18:22 PM

Quote from: JohnyBigs on September 22, 2013, 04:15:28 PM

Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 04:10:57 PM

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s. Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

This can anyone run some numbers? Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

5btc doesn't make sense. There are 10,000,000 shares so that would mean a market cap of 6 BILLION DOLLARS.

This is why I have JB on ignore. The mere fact that this thread is longer than the AM thread is a testament to the ridiculous content.

As far as price, LC would do extremely well to get to ~ .08 BTC per share or a value of $100M.

.08 would be amazing especially if you jumped in at IPO

I'm hoping we can break .025-.035

afrotec

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Coinnoisseur

Quote from: kingcrimson on September 22, 2013, 05:34:30 PM

Yeah his estimates are so idiotic that it makes you wonder about the overall quality of minds engaged with Labcoin.

As if the last 600+ pages of nonsense could leave one with any uncertainty regarding the collective intelligence of this thread's participants.

Grin

kingcrimson

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Quote from: canth on September 22, 2013, 05:15:26 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on September 22, 2013, 04:18:22 PM

Quote from: JohnyBigs on September 22, 2013, 04:15:28 PM

Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 04:10:57 PM

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s. Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

This can anyone run some numbers? Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

5btc doesn't make sense. There are 10,000,000 shares so that would mean a market cap of 6 BILLION DOLLARS.

This is why I have JB on ignore. The mere fact that this thread is longer than the AM thread is a testament to the ridiculous content.

As far as price, LC would do extremely well to get to ~ .08 BTC per share or a value of $100M.

Yeah his estimates are so idiotic that it makes you wonder about the overall quality of minds engaged with Labcoin.

BitThink

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Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 04:33:27 PM

Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 04:10:57 PM

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s. Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

Impossible to know since we can't know what the overall difficulty will be.

According to this there's 7PH/s of announced hashrate coming online by December 2013. It could be higher, of if we're lucky other projects may fail and it'll be lower.

If it is 7Ph, and they have 0.5Ph that would be 7% of the network. Looking at ASCIMiner's 7 day average hashrate, they're at about, maybe 45TH/s?

Total network hashrate is 0.99PH/s, according to bitcoin watch, so ASICMiner has maybe 4.5% of the network.

If you want to ignore ASICMiner's hardware sales (which the market is probably doing given they don't have anything beyond their 130nm stuff to sell yet) then you just multiply ASICMiner's share price by 0.04 go compensate for the difference in the number of shares. (400,000/10,000,00)

You get a share price of 0.064 if they were at 4.5%, and 0.0096 if they were at 7% and valued the same as ASICMiner.

Of course, it's unlikely they would be, given AM's long track record and Labcoin's dubious one.

Currently more than half of AM's dividend comes from hardware sales. It cannot be ignore at all. Moreover, there's an announcement of 1PH by the end of this year. Without this, the price may already way below 0.5 BTC. Come back to LC, even with 500T, the price will be 0.01 at best that time and will drop quickly if there's no clear future plan (such as gen 3).

kingcrimson

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Quote from: ShroomsKit on September 22, 2013, 04:51:51 PM

Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 04:07:49 PM

Quote from: Bitcycle on September 22, 2013, 03:37:26 PM

The more I think about it, the more that warning is a drastic overreaction to a minor issue.

The whole thing has been handled very poorly by Burnside. I've lost some faith in the exchange because of this whole incident. Making up rules as you go along is not the way to earn my trust.

I lost money because of it - he first put it up with no explanation at all. No what provisions they were violating nor what how it had been "flagged" (or by who, or how the 'flagging' process even worked.)

So, I sold. partly because I thought it might drive the price down further, and partly because I actually had no idea what was going on. There'd been so much drama with Labcoin, for all we knew it was put there because it was feared they'd run off with the IPO money or something.

Later he posted an update a comment which explained what was going on (it had to do with share locking) and linked to it, and the price immediately recovered. Since the price had been going up due to the hashing I bought back in at a higher price then I sold, like a total idiot. Had I just waited a bit I could have actually profited. Oh well.

The ipo made clear already that Burnside absolutely doesn't care about the people who use his site and make him money. You sound surprised.

He runs the best exchange, go to bitfunder and enjoy your icedrill shares if you hate burnside so much. The warning was tame compared to what it could have been.

canth

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on September 22, 2013, 04:18:22 PM

Quote from: JohnyBigs on September 22, 2013, 04:15:28 PM

Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 04:10:57 PM

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s. Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

This can anyone run some numbers? Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

5btc doesn't make sense. There are 10,000,000 shares so that would mean a market cap of 6 BILLION DOLLARS.

This is why I have JB on ignore. The mere fact that this thread is longer than the AM thread is a testament to the ridiculous content.

As far as price, LC would do extremely well to get to ~ .08 BTC per share or a value of $100M.

Luckybit

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Quote from: dhenson on September 22, 2013, 04:26:22 PM

Quote from: JohnyBigs on September 22, 2013, 04:15:28 PM

This can anyone run some numbers? Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

5btc/share is a ridiculous estimate (sorry, but it is).

Assuming the global network hashrate is 6PH by Jan 1 and Labcoin is hashing @ 500TH/s, that is 8.33% of the global network.

A conservitive estimate of global bitcoins mined in a 2 week period is 56,000 (4,000 x 14).

8.33% of 56,000 is 4666.648 bitcoins divided by 10,000,000 shares is .0004666 / share.

~30% is removed for costs/reinvestment etc.

Final result: .0003266/share for the 2 week period. (roughly .0085 annually) for a share price of .0339 @ 25% annual return.

Of course this is entirely unrealistic as nobody would at this point trust labcoin enough to be happy with a 25% annual return.

I don't believe they will be hashing @ 500TH/s. I don't think we should take them that seriously with the numbers.

8.33% of the global network is unlikely. 3% is realistic. But yeah I agree with you, the amount of credibility they have lost they should be aiming for 15% of the network and not 8%. They should be going for 2000TH but let me be realistic I don't think they can get 500TH by Jan 1 2014. 2000TH is something only Asicminer could pull off at this point. I say this mainly because I don't think they can possibly deploy 500TH by 2014 unless they somehow can outsource it and if they can do that then why not push for 1000TH?

ShroomsKit

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Quote from: SebastianJu on September 22, 2013, 04:26:04 PM

Quote from: wickedgoodtrader on September 22, 2013, 04:20:14 PM

Quote from: Bitcycle on September 22, 2013, 03:58:48 PM

Quote from: kingcrimson on September 22, 2013, 03:46:15 PM

Quote from: Bitcycle on September 22, 2013, 03:37:26 PM

The more I think about it, the more that warning is a drastic overreaction to a minor issue.

The whole thing has been handled very poorly by Burnside. I've lost some faith in the exchange because of this whole incident. Making up rules as you go along is not the way to earn my trust.

You only say that because it effects your share price. Labcoin has been acting shady as hell. I say that as a shareholder being unbiased...this warning will make Labcoin re-think pulling the same crap in the future, and know there are consequences.

No, I say that because Burnside has handled it very poorly, acting essentially on whims.

Putting up a warning like that is VERY serious, as was evidenced by the reaction to it. What was the process for it?

Where is this process documented? Where was it discussed?

Labcoin should be responsive, sure. That in no way absolves Burnside of his far too casual handling of the whole matter.

Today it's Labcoin, but it could be any offering on the site. We don't know when Burnside is going to decide to interpret things however he wants and take essentially random actions.

Burnside gave them multiple opportunities to make good on their promise and they never did. What the hell else was he suppose to do? Keep begging them for weeks/months/years on end and never get a response. All they have to do is provide him with the proof and it's over. But they can't do that!

Burnside most probably sees a responsible for his users. Thats a good sign. And since its hurting him too i doubt he did this slightly. Its generally a very bad idea if things lay down unsolved. I guess im reacting allergic to such behaviour since yifu behaved the same way. I think its a good thing that burnside is behind such things.
Its a simple thing for security issuers. Solve the problem and done.

Responsible for his users. That's funny. If there is one thing he doesn't give a shit about it is his users.

ShroomsKit

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Activity: 672

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Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 04:07:49 PM

Quote from: Bitcycle on September 22, 2013, 03:37:26 PM

The more I think about it, the more that warning is a drastic overreaction to a minor issue.

The whole thing has been handled very poorly by Burnside. I've lost some faith in the exchange because of this whole incident. Making up rules as you go along is not the way to earn my trust.

I lost money because of it - he first put it up with no explanation at all. No what provisions they were violating nor what how it had been "flagged" (or by who, or how the 'flagging' process even worked.)

So, I sold. partly because I thought it might drive the price down further, and partly because I actually had no idea what was going on. There'd been so much drama with Labcoin, for all we knew it was put there because it was feared they'd run off with the IPO money or something.

Later he posted an update a comment which explained what was going on (it had to do with share locking) and linked to it, and the price immediately recovered. Since the price had been going up due to the hashing I bought back in at a higher price then I sold, like a total idiot. Had I just waited a bit I could have actually profited. Oh well.

The ipo made clear already that Burnside absolutely doesn't care about the people who use his site and make him money. You sound surprised.

dhenson

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Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 04:45:34 PM

They wouldn't be able to power a 2Gh/s mining stick without some new chip, since their old ones would draw too much power, I believe.

Hard to know for sure as the information tap has been turned off. We don't know what the actual power draw / GH is. Do we?

Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) - page 239. (Read 1079974 times)