[LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) - page 238.

velacreations

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Quote from: Ytterbium on September 22, 2013, 09:10:56 PM

Quote from: BitCsByBit on September 22, 2013, 06:34:48 PM

That is incorrect as lately friedcat has been withholding the money from the hardware sales and dividends only included proceeds from the mining.

That's interesting. Presumably to invest more in hardware?

One problem with these bitcoin mining stocks is that as competition heats up the mining companies may need to poor all their revenue into new hardware, and ultimately the fabs end up with all the money.

he's been holding back a portion of the dividend to fund Gen2. Estimates are that he's got at least 11K btc saved.

Ytterbium

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Quote from: BitCsByBit on September 22, 2013, 06:34:48 PM

That is incorrect as lately friedcat has been withholding the money from the hardware sales and dividends only included proceeds from the mining.

That's interesting. Presumably to invest more in hardware?

One problem with these bitcoin mining stocks is that as competition heats up the mining companies may need to poor all their revenue into new hardware, and ultimately the fabs end up with all the money.

velacreations

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Quote from: dhenson on September 22, 2013, 09:03:47 PM

The market apparently disagrees with you.

we'll see

dhenson

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Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 09:00:59 PM

first they need to achieve 1%, which is still a stretch. If they get that done by Mid Oct, THEY MIGHT be able to pull off 50 TH/s by Nov 1.

So, until Nov 1, they really aren't worth .002 btc, by your calculations.

And I agree, the risk is very high, they are unlikely to be able to achieve 1% by Nov 1.

The market apparently disagrees with you.

velacreations

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Quote from: dhenson on September 22, 2013, 08:54:53 PM

The math is off as it is only accounting for 3600 btc mined per day which hasn't been true for months.

Reworking the math shows that basically for every 1% of the network Labcoin holds, their value per share goes up by .002.

1% = .002
2% = .004
3% = .006
4% = .008

etc..

You can see that even if they don't hit their 500TH goal and only are able to obtain 250% or around 4% of total network hash rate, we are still in for a nice gain.

As you well know Vela, stocks are not always valued by their current performance... You have to factor in risk and potential. It is my opinion that the potential is closer to .015 in 2013 and the risk unfortunately is currently very high. Once the risk lowers, we will start to see the stock rise.

first they need to achieve 1%, which is still a stretch. If they get that done by Mid Oct, THEY MIGHT be able to pull off 50 TH/s by Nov 1.

So, until Nov 1, they really aren't worth .002 btc, by your calculations.

And I agree, the risk is very high, they are unlikely to be able to achieve 1% by Nov 1.

dhenson

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The math is off as it is only accounting for 3750 (edit) btc mined per day which hasn't been true for months. The math below is assuming 4000tbtc per day, but the last few times I've checked it's been over 4500. It's currently at 5100 btc/day http://blockchain.info/stats

Reworking the math shows that basically for every 1% of the network Labcoin holds, their value per share goes up by .002.

1% = .002
2% = .004
3% = .006
4% = .008

etc..

You can see that even if they don't hit their 500TH goal and only are able to obtain 250% or around 4% of total network hash rate, we are still in for a nice gain.

As you well know Vela, stocks are not always valued by their current performance... You have to factor in risk and potential. It is my opinion that the potential is closer to .015 in 2013 and the risk unfortunately is currently very high. Once the risk lowers, we will start to see the stock rise.

velacreations

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Here's from page 1 of this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/labcoin-ipo-btctco-detailsfaq-and-discussion-asic-devsalesmining-263445

velacreations

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Quote from: JohnyBigs on September 22, 2013, 08:44:15 PM

WTF do you know, your a FUD fail

so, you expect people to overpay for something that under performs? or what? where's your explanation of where those estimates are off?

Bitcycle

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Shocking, FUDsters conclude Labcoin is overvalued. Well blow me over with a feather.

Calculations are fun, but there's not a single stock price anywhere in bitcoinland that's ever been determined by calculations.

It's all emotion driven, and right now the emotions on Labcoin are low. If they get substantial hashrate online and that warning removed, well then it might be different.

JohnyBigs

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Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 08:39:23 PM

Quote from: Mabsark on September 16, 2013, 04:27:19 AM

.....
If Labcoin controlled:

01%, they would mine 504 BTC per difficulty round, 352.8 BTC (70%) going towards dividends giving 0.00003528 BTC/share/round.
02%, they would mine 1,008 BTC per difficulty round, 705.6 BTC (70%) going towards dividends giving 0.00007056 BTC per share per round.

.....
[/list]

remember those figures?

well, @ 50% APR (fairly generous)
1% - 0.00003528 BTC/share/dividend @ 50% APR = .0018 btc/share value
2% - 0.00007056 BTC/share/dividend @ 50% APR = .0036 btc/share value

In 2 weeks, IF 20 TH/s comes online, they'll be worth maximum .0036 btc/share, but more likely .0018 btc/share

If they can maintain that hash percentage (1%) for a month or more, you'll see that APR gradually reduce towards 30% (.003 btc/share).

tl;dr - The fair value of Lacoin is unlikely to surpass .004 in 2013. Labcoin is currently severely overvalued

WTF do you know, your a FUD fail

velacreations

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Quote from: Mabsark on September 16, 2013, 04:27:19 AM

.....
If Labcoin controlled:

01%, they would mine 504 BTC per difficulty round, 352.8 BTC (70%) going towards dividends giving 0.00003528 BTC/share/round.
02%, they would mine 1,008 BTC per difficulty round, 705.6 BTC (70%) going towards dividends giving 0.00007056 BTC per share per round.

.....
[/list]

remember those figures?

well, @ 50% APR (fairly generous)
1% - 0.00003528 BTC/share/dividend @ 50% APR = .0018 btc/share value
2% - 0.00007056 BTC/share/dividend @ 50% APR = .0036 btc/share value

In 2 weeks, IF 20 TH/s comes online, they'll be worth maximum .0036 btc/share, but more likely .0018 btc/share

If they can maintain that hash percentage (1%) for a month or more, you'll see that APR gradually reduce towards 30% (.003 btc/share).

tl;dr - The fair value of Lacoin is unlikely to surpass .004 in 2013. Labcoin is currently severely overvalued

guitarplinker

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Quote from: canth on September 22, 2013, 07:40:00 PM

Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 07:15:05 PM

Quote from: canth on September 22, 2013, 05:15:26 PM

This is why I have JB on ignore. The mere fact that this thread is longer than the AM thread is a testament to the ridiculous content.

As far as price, LC would do extremely well to get to ~ .08 BTC per share or a value of $100M.

.08 per share would be awesome!

Yes - it would be at the extreme high end where LC captures well over 10% of the hashrate AND sells a ton of hardware. Consider it a not to exceed, in my opinion.

I have a strong feeling it'll be difficult for these shares to even break 0.02 BTC at most. Just a feeling, because that would be nearly 10x the price now. 0.08 BTC would be 40x the current price, I think there's a very slim chance of that ever happening, but who knows.

canth

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Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 07:15:05 PM

Quote from: canth on September 22, 2013, 05:15:26 PM

This is why I have JB on ignore. The mere fact that this thread is longer than the AM thread is a testament to the ridiculous content.

As far as price, LC would do extremely well to get to ~ .08 BTC per share or a value of $100M.

.08 per share would be awesome!

Yes - it would be at the extreme high end where LC captures well over 10% of the hashrate AND sells a ton of hardware. Consider it a not to exceed, in my opinion.

ShroomsKit

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Quote from: JohnyBigs on September 22, 2013, 04:15:28 PM

Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 04:10:57 PM

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s. Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

This can anyone run some numbers? Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

Here is a tip before i put you on ignore: stop typing.

bitrich

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Quote from: canth on September 22, 2013, 05:15:26 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on September 22, 2013, 04:18:22 PM

Quote from: JohnyBigs on September 22, 2013, 04:15:28 PM

Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 04:10:57 PM

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s. Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

This can anyone run some numbers? Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

5btc doesn't make sense. There are 10,000,000 shares so that would mean a market cap of 6 BILLION DOLLARS.

This is why I have JB on ignore. The mere fact that this thread is longer than the AM thread is a testament to the ridiculous content.

As far as price, LC would do extremely well to get to ~ .08 BTC per share or a value of $100M.

.08 per share would be awesome!

Puppet

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on September 22, 2013, 06:57:42 PM

At this rate we will see 2PH/S Total Network hash rate.

...

.000028BTC/week works out to .001456BTC/year.

You think next year the network will still be at only 2PH??
Current preorders from various vendors, promised to be delivered this year alone is closer to 10PH.
A year from now, well, all bets are off, except that it wont be anywhere near 2PH.

Anotheranonlol

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Quote from: JohnyBigs on September 22, 2013, 04:15:28 PM

Quote from: bitrich on September 22, 2013, 04:10:57 PM

Well looks like the lab has turned it around, so let's say labcoin reaches their december goal of 500th/s. Has anyone used some math and took a guess as the share price and dividend yet? If they get anywhere close to 500th/s it could be epic, no?

This can anyone run some numbers? Im going to take a guess of 5BTC+/share without hardware sales profits.

snapshot of typical labcoin bull, perhaps burnside should of actually locked it off already, for your own good..

velacreations

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on September 22, 2013, 06:59:01 PM

close to my calculation, but we will see 2PH in 2 weeks, and I don't think investors will let the share price drop so far that we would see 70% APR..
edit: I say that because it seems slightly overvalued right now as it is, considering the shit we've been through recently.

slightly overvalued is an understatement.

VolanicEruptor

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Quote from: velacreations on September 22, 2013, 07:03:06 PM

Quote from: VolanicEruptor on September 22, 2013, 06:59:01 PM

close to my calculation, but we will see 2PH in 2 weeks, and I don't think investors will let the share price drop so far that we would see 70% APR..

50% is the lowest APR Labcoin will see for weeks, until they prove things are stable and improving.

Too many bullish speculators.. so I would bet against that. We'll see..

velacreations

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Quote from: VolanicEruptor on September 22, 2013, 06:59:01 PM

close to my calculation, but we will see 2PH in 2 weeks, and I don't think investors will let the share price drop so far that we would see 70% APR..

50% is the lowest APR Labcoin will see for weeks, until they prove things are stable and improving.

@ 1% of the network and 50% APR, the value is .0020 per share.

Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining) - page 238. (Read 1079974 times)