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Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value - page 15. (Read 117603 times)

sr. member
Activity: 263
Merit: 280
Nice graphics and nice work!  Wink

What software did you use?


Excel.

As Rpietila says, you can do amazing things with excel.
sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
Very interesting chart. I could definitely see BTC reaching $1k around April 2015 and then hovering around there until Q4 2015. The block reward halving will be a focus of discussion and I can imagine that topic causing a x10 increase to around $10k in late 2015. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
legendary
Activity: 1960
Merit: 1127
Truth will out!
Very very interesting…  Tongue

In this OP I will always post the last updated charts:



Nice work with the charts. Thanks for sharing with us.
I'm going to stay on that topic to check your updates and estimates.

2015 could be an important year for bitcoin. Not just to become mainstream… It's going to be a "key year" because of the projects related with the bitcoin ecosystem consolidation.
legendary
Activity: 981
Merit: 1005
No maps for these territories
Nice graphics and nice work!  Wink

What software did you use?
sr. member
Activity: 263
Merit: 280
Chart with data until 2014-10-14:

Donations: 19AYtA4xFM7izR7BAXKr9TLJkrAJsvcfFm


If we "flatten" the red logarithmic line, we get the spread between the price and the estimated value:

Donations: 1BgnScfDU5QvKUGCqKKsDm62YxKzh5sjCn


This is how the 2011 and 2013 (1) bubbles look like in linear price axis:

Donations: 1EbbkBkTDZ667bUxHNHtxhAysFEAWVgWB4

And this is how the 2011 and 2013 (1&2) bubbles look like in linear price axis:

Donations: 196xJM7c4jjhHkUp7CnrKG2joXPe57uNRF


Calculate today's trendline price HERE

Projected:
     1.000  24-04-2015
    10.000  22-11-2017
   100.000  16-07-2021
1.000.000  06-09-2026
sr. member
Activity: 263
Merit: 280
To understand what I have done, I recommended to visit:
1) Rpietila's thread: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend
2) SlipperySlope's thread: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model
3) Rpeter's post: Latest graphs showing nice correlation between prices and adoption (squared) - Metcalfe's Law
4) Raystonn's thread: Metcalfe's Law: Bitcoin Price and Adoption Analysis for the Future
5) jl2012's thread: Bitcoin long-term exponential trend (updated regularly)
6) gbianchi's thread A Bitcoin price theory
7) Joe200's thread Non-spreadsheet long-term predictions


Why QR codes inside the charts?
The idea is to attach a unique bitcoin address to each chart, to be able to track wich (if any), you prefer.
That's why you will see a different QR (bitcoin address) in each chart I post.
sr. member
Activity: 263
Merit: 280
sr. member
Activity: 263
Merit: 280
In this OP I will always post the last updated chart:

Update 2017-01-03:

Donations: bitcoin:1Fe6B3Zo4HxaCD8ybi9A8zBRH2wKpciUxe

Calculate today's trendline value HERE
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