Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value - page 2. (Read 117739 times)

If you click on the link within hotpassion's post - two post above yours, then you will see that the update of the graph goes all the way to today's date.

If you click on the link within hotpassion's post - two post above yours, then you will see that the update of the graph goes all the way to today's date.

Hey I was wondering if you could update the bitcoin regression equation? It looks like you said in 2021 it's updated regularly but I'm seeing that the last update was in 2017.

Do you (or anyone else) have a link to which ever rainbow chart (or the infamous one) you are referring to, and perhaps I (and others / and the students of the class) might be able to follow along with the visuals a wee bit moar better.

Rainbow chart looking great as always. As expected, Bitcoin will continue to move lower and lower in the rainbow as time passes, because there is only so much money in the world that will go into a single asset, so slowdown will occur, and as proof you can just look at the 2011, 2013, and 2017 peaks to see the lower progression. I think the light orange band (5th from top) is probably as high as Bitcoin will make it from this point on.

Bitcoin should recover into the green during the second half of this year, probably roughly follow that up for a bit next year and start poking into the yellow. Maybe 2025 post-halving we'll get a pump into the orange briefly. $400k range in 2025.

Love the rainbow. This was the first chart when I got back into bitcoin in 2017 that made me realize the growth potential for the future.

Glad to see the legendary Trolololo!!

Have you ever added overbought and oversold bands to better visualize those levels? Is there a model that includes bands that you like more?

It would be interesting to see where the overbought band is right now or 6 months ahead.

1) That was a typo. I updated all data in the chart, except I forgot to update the formula parameters in the chart... Updating the chart was a hard manual process, and so subject to minor errors.
2) The chart should be updated regularly...
3) I made those charts to have an idea of whether the BTC price was overvalued or undervalued at the moment of every update. The chart could also be useful for estimating under-over valuation for one or two years in the future. And also gave and idea of the enormous revalorization of BTC that was left by them. But I never did that as a prediction, because no one can predict the market behavior. The price hitting 10k with just days of difference... is just luck. No cristal ball here... Seriously.
4) The wolframalpha gave an approximation of the value at a given date, given that updating the chart was a hard process.

Hello! I am writing to this forum for the first time. I was very interested in the work of Trolololo and I decided to get into it in detail. I carefully and thoroughly studied this whole forum https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/logarithmic-non-linear-regression-bitcoin-estimated-value-831547 and made sure that its formulas in the past gave accurate results! Thank you very much Trolololo for your fundamental work.
       But I do not understand everything, so I am forced to turn to all of you and, above all, to the distinguished Trolololo for help and clarification ....
       Trolololo several times laid out similar, but slightly different formulas. All these formulas give different results and all these results change every day ... Today, 07/20/2019, the formulas give the following results:

10/22/2014 5-17-47
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864) 11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

 
12/30/2014
10 ^ (2.9065 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.493)
31480
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(2.9065++*+ln((nnumber+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.493)

 
3/9/2015
10 ^ (3.1737 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.424)
59234
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.1737++*+ln((nnew+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+21.424)

 
05.28.2015
10 ^ (3.11800081827247 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.0858000278001)
44773
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E (3.1800081827247++*+ln ((number+of+days+s++2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+++21.0858000278001)

 
04/14/2016
10 ^ (2.84737734739566 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.2400124152881)
18323
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.84737734739566++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.2400124152881)


01/10/2017
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864)
11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

  

          In this regard, I have the following questions:
1) I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the first and last formulas on October 22, 2014, 17–47 and 01/10/2017 are absolutely identical !!! Why? Why, then, were changes made to the formula for three years?
 2) Which of these formulas is relevant today?
3) If I understand correctly, these formulas show the predicted price of Bitcoin after some time in the future. After what about time Bitcoin should reach the price, which shows the formula at the moment.
4) What are the days of brackets (number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) does this formula substitute for getting the correct result?

Where is Trolololo 

does anyone here know how to calculate Trololo's equation?