Topic: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value - page 3. (Read 117628 times)

lol, it's chillin' over here: https://www.moonmath.win/

So... what's the current status of this rainbow?

Hello! I am writing to this forum for the first time. I was very interested in the work of Trolololo and I decided to get into it in detail. I carefully and thoroughly studied this whole forum https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/logarithmic-non-linear-regression-bitcoin-estimated-value-831547 and made sure that its formulas in the past gave accurate results! Thank you very much Trolololo for your fundamental work.
       But I do not understand everything, so I am forced to turn to all of you and, above all, to the distinguished Trolololo for help and clarification ....
       Trolololo several times laid out similar, but slightly different formulas. All these formulas give different results and all these results change every day ... Today, 07/20/2019, the formulas give the following results:

10/22/2014 5-17-47
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864) 11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

 
12/30/2014
10 ^ (2.9065 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.493)
31480
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(2.9065++*+ln((nnumber+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.493)

 
3/9/2015
10 ^ (3.1737 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.424)
59234
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.1737++*+ln((nnew+of+days+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+21.424)

 
05.28.2015
10 ^ (3.11800081827247 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 21.0858000278001)
44773
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E (3.1800081827247++*+ln ((number+of+days+s++2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+++21.0858000278001)

 
04/14/2016
10 ^ (2.84737734739566 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 19.2400124152881)
18323
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.84737734739566++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+19.2400124152881)


01/10/2017
10 ^ (2.66167155005961 * ln ((number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) - 17.9183761889864)
11266
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E2.66167155005961++*+ln ((number+of+days+s+2009+Jan+09)%2Fdays)+-+17.9183761889864)

  

          In this regard, I have the following questions:
1) I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the first and last formulas on October 22, 2014, 17–47 and 01/10/2017 are absolutely identical !!! Why? Why, then, were changes made to the formula for three years?
 2) Which of these formulas is relevant today?
3) If I understand correctly, these formulas show the predicted price of Bitcoin after some time in the future. After what about time Bitcoin should reach the price, which shows the formula at the moment.
4) What are the days of brackets (number of days since 2009 Jan 09) / days) does this formula substitute for getting the correct result?

Very interesting thought. I played around with the price data in order to fit the peaks and bottoms into the same colors. See image here:
https://i.imgur.com/Sl4vP07.png
The price spread covered by the colors gets smaller with time. At the very moment, the upper bound of the blow-off zone grows only 0.15% per day while the lower bound of the capitulation zone grows 0.17% per day.
Let's see if Bitcoin further manages to stay within these ranges in the coming years.

totally noticed that, first thing i noticed. I fully expect the next boom to only go to the color right below where the last boom went to. So if it occurs in 2021 which it probably will, it should peak just over $100k. Also every boom has ended up going over the next multiple of ten (2 -> 30s (over $10), -> 200s (over $100, -> $1150 (over $1000), -> $19800 (over $10k) -> $100k? - $130k? (over $100k)), and I think that will continue on this next boom. An guess but an educated guess.

I think we should expect it to continue have booms go lower in the rainbow chart in the future, as bitcoin gets closer to becoming a global asset and therefore it gets closer to maturing. Then again if Wall St buys up millions of Bitcoin over the next two or three years maybe we'll actually see it spike higher instead of lower!

Over the three bubbles, you see how the peak shifts down in the color range? The following bottoms also has shifted down in color.
I, a noob, was caught out during the latest bubble, expecting it to reach the previous peak color!
Is it possible to make a chart where the peaks & bottoms have the same color?

Thank you

Looks like the moonmath site has been revamped and added Trolololo's projection: https://www.moonmath.win/

Here's a screengrab:

lol, there's still time (and a website dedicated to it): https://bircoin.top/

Has McAfee undergone that operation yet to remove his private parts that he made a bet on? 

The Moon Math log projection isn't that far off from Trolololo's: https://www.moonmath.win/

 

+1
Could you update please

Hi, based on CryptoLab work, I was working on an extension of Metcalfe's law analysis to evaluate blockchain projects, such as ethereum, ripple, stellar and others. I leave the link: https://medium.com/@federicoagustincaccia/analyzing-blockchain-networks-with-metcalfes-and-odlyzko-s-laws-735d7488a18f regards!

where to find the latest updates on this?  I saw one on reddit or somewhere and i was trying to find.  On this thread the only chart that i see still working is one from 2014.

How come the daily calculation link is completely different from the projected log regression trendline in the images?

For example, if you run the calculation today, it says $5879.

The trendline however had price at $10k back in November 2017.

What am I missing?

Cool to see you back, is there an updated chart of your first one from this thread?

Server of images not working, reupload please!

Fresh Fear & Greed Index http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

What do you think, where will the markets go?  

https://s18.postimg.org/ozh8bb7jd/09465a5b6a.jpg

https://s18.postimg.org/ozh8bb7jd/09465a5b6a.jpg

The upper line of resistance looks the same in any scale mode: linear or logarithmic. So I can only give you one advice: increase your level.