Difficult to forecast? Oh really?
They already had the results one week before the referendum and they didn't have time to formulate at "attitude" =)))))
To be honest, Putin is caught between the devil and the deep sea. Here are his options.
Option 1, preferred by Putin: Let Donetsk and Lugansk remain in Ukraine, but with wide-ranging autonomy. The Kiev-junta will never agree to giving self-rule, as they too want to demolish the popularity of Putin back home in Russia.
Option 2: Armed invasion by Russia: Putin don't want this method, as he knows that making 7 million predominantly poor people the new Russian citizens will need tens of billions of USD every year in the form of salary, welfare and pensions. Also, sanctions will get a lot tougher and damage the Russian economy. The Kiev junta want to force Putin to do this step. If Putin invades Donbass, then the Russian economy will go in to a recession, and in the long term his popularity will nosedive. This might be the only chance to get Putin out of power.
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