Monero (XMR) Speculation thread - page 11.

drawingthesun

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1015

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 09:07:28 PM

Quote from: drawingthesun on August 13, 2014, 08:20:24 PM

Are you calculating Monero to USD? If not then it'll be a flawed comparison.

Why? There is no such thing as a Monero/USD trading pair. It doesn't exist in nature.

Quote from: drawingthesun on August 13, 2014, 08:20:24 PM

You can get the usd value by converting the bitcoin value to usd for that exact time.

OK I can do this for you too, but I can tell you now it won't matter, Monero is still more volatile than bitcoin. I'll have to do it tomorrow though, unless you want to do it first. Be my guest.

Feel free to correct me, but basing the Monero volatility off the btc/xmr price will simply cause Monero to constantly change based on the changing price of bitcoin. Even if Monero were stuck at $2 it'll look volatile because of Bitcoins swings.

Your calculation takes the bitcoin to Monero pair into account and I understand that there isn't a USD pair for comparison, although a USD price could be calculated, the trouble is many people may be buying and selling based on its USD value even if it has to be calculated by the trader.

I can't do any comparison myself right now because I'm on the train to work.

In just feel it's not a good analysis because bitcoin it's calculated pegged to USD and Monero is calculated pegged to Bitcoin, I think it'll be impossible for any coin pegged to a currency to be less volatile than that currency.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: drawingthesun on August 13, 2014, 08:20:24 PM

Are you calculating Monero to USD? If not then it'll be a flawed comparison.

Why? There is no such thing as a Monero/USD trading pair. It doesn't exist in nature.

Quote from: drawingthesun on August 13, 2014, 08:20:24 PM

You can get the usd value by converting the bitcoin value to usd for that exact time.

OK I can do this for you too, but I can tell you now it won't matter, Monero is still more volatile than bitcoin. I'll have to do it tomorrow though, unless you want to do it first. Be my guest.

nioc

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1008

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 08:19:03 PM

Quote from: nioc on August 13, 2014, 08:15:43 PM

It's not like I need to defend rpietila because he does a fine job for himself.

Really? Where is he then? He's been strangely absent during this entire time he could have been defending himself.

Quote from: nioc on August 13, 2014, 08:15:43 PM

I do find it strange however that your criticisms are diametrically opposed to reality.

What is your basis for making this statement? You think you can just lob this out there and I will accept it and let it stand as a rational explanation on its own accord?

You mean like you lobbed it out without rational explanation? There is a thread of his in Off Topic. You should check it out.

Quote from: nioc on August 13, 2014, 08:15:43 PM

Also note that my interest in Monero started before rpietilla's obvious activity and stems from other sources. I do appreciate his support and information but I don't take that info as "word" but instead as a piece of the puzzle.

Its a piece of a different puzzle, it won't fit in your puzzle because its not the right size. Trying to jam it in there will only result in an incomplete puzzle.

That's not how the brain works, it works holographically.

I play poker and I have learned things from bad players as not everything they do is bad. I can not play like the best poker players and if I try I lose. Instead I need to incorporate their strategies into my perspective.

drawingthesun

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1015

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 06:36:05 PM

Quote from: rpietila on August 13, 2014, 04:23:55 PM

1. Volatility is the variance of price over time. Now, since Bitcoin has had 10,000%+ runs during its history along with -93% declines, and Monero has had neither, the burden of mathematical/statistical proof is on you. Please make your calculations.

Here you go. I compared BTC to XMR in 2 ways, the first is a lifetime-to-lifetime comparison and the second runs from 5/20/14 - 8/12/14 (I couldn't find price data for XMR before 5/20).

The average % daily change for BTC across its lifetime is 0.84%, with a standard deviation of 0.0713 (this is the "volatility" number).

The average % daily change for XMR across its lifetime (starting on 5/20) is 1.16%, with a standard deviation of 0.1671, or 2.34x greater volatility than BTC.

The average % daily change for BTC in the same time period as XMR (from 5/20 to 8/12) was 0.33% with a st. dev. of 0.0277, which is 6x less volatile than XMR.

So no matter how you want to cut the numbers, you're wrong.

Quote from: rpietila on August 13, 2014, 04:23:55 PM

2. I checked your post history and would like to ask why you so bitter against many people?

Because many people such as yourself get your rocks off by making the world a shittier place for a living.

You are a Monero shill through and through. It is your job to get people to waste their money on this useless bullshit coin. And you can fool most of the people but you're not fooling me because I have an actual understanding and working knowledge of the terms you just throw around to impress others.

And that's how I can tell you are 100% bullshit.

Now have a nice day.

Are you calculating Monero to USD? If not then it'll be a flawed comparison. You can get the usd value by converting the bitcoin value to usd for that exact time.

Also I would like rpeitila to comment on this, perhaps he was wrong? I would like to see his calculation that led him to his conclusion.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: nioc on August 13, 2014, 08:15:43 PM

It's not like I need to defend rpietila because he does a fine job for himself.

Really? Where is he then? He's been strangely absent during this entire time he could have been defending himself.

Quote from: nioc on August 13, 2014, 08:15:43 PM

I do find it strange however that your criticisms are diametrically opposed to reality.

What is your basis for making this statement? You think you can just lob this out there and I will accept it and let it stand as a rational explanation on its own accord?

Quote from: nioc on August 13, 2014, 08:15:43 PM

Also note that my interest in Monero started before rpietilla's obvious activity and stems from other sources. I do appreciate his support and information but I don't take that info as "word" but instead as a piece of the puzzle.

Its a piece of a different puzzle, it won't fit in your puzzle because its not the right size. Trying to jam it in there will only result in an incomplete puzzle.

nioc

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1008

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 06:36:05 PM

Quote from: rpietila on August 13, 2014, 04:23:55 PM

2. I checked your post history and would like to ask why you so bitter against many people?

Because many people such as yourself get your rocks off by making the world a shittier place for a living.

You are a Monero shill through and through. It is your job to get people to waste their money on this useless bullshit coin. And you can fool most of the people but you're not fooling me because I have an actual understanding and working knowledge of the terms you just throw around to impress others.

And that's how I can tell you are 100% bullshit.

Now have a nice day.

It's not like I need to defend rpietila because he does a fine job for himself. I do find it strange however that your criticisms are diametrically opposed to reality.

Also note that my interest in Monero started before rpietilla's obvious activity and stems from other sources. I do appreciate his support and information but I don't take that info as "word" but instead as a piece of the puzzle.

statdude

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1000

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 08:05:58 PM

Quote from: statdude on August 13, 2014, 08:03:45 PM

I'm cool as a cucumber and can go all day with you. It's actually pretty fun, since I've ripped apart virtually everything you've said.

LOL. Except the main crux of my argument.

What, the volatility thing?

I never attempted to disagree with that. But thanks for admitting you've been wrong in every other measurable way, not to mention, a douchebag to boot.

+1 for me again.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: statdude on August 13, 2014, 08:03:45 PM

I'm cool as a cucumber and can go all day with you. It's actually pretty fun, since I've ripped apart virtually everything you've said.

LOL. Except the main crux of my argument.

statdude

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ?? on ??

Funny how I have the ability to get all of your panties in a bunch yet I couldn't possibly give a shit about what you do outside this thread.

Incorrect, you do actually care, or you wouldn't have deleted my posts in your thread.

I'm cool as a cucumber and can go all day with you. It's actually pretty enjoyable, since you have zero debate skills and I've ripped apart virtually everything you've said.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 07:32:56 PM

Quote from: statdude on August 13, 2014, 07:25:28 PM

Is it just me guys, or is this retort pretty pathetic?

Its just you.

Sorry, the opinion of a DRK shill like yourself is pretty irrelevant here.

I hold exactly 5 DRKs right now.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: canonsburg on August 13, 2014, 07:36:22 PM

Why are you using average % daily change to measure volatility?

Why not use the more conventional measure of variance?

You mean Standard Deviation, right? That's what I did.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: drawingthemoon on August 13, 2014, 07:34:19 PM

Still like to see the raw data in maybe google spreadsheet as I wanted to derive some more numbers (for both XMR and BTC)

Really? You're not even going to attempt to get them for yourself? That's a surefire sign you are worried you may not be correct. OK fine, be that way:

http://www.coindesk.com/price/

Under "Historical Bitcoin Price" on the right-hand side of the screen, click "Download Historical Price Data."

The XMR data I combined from coingecko and Poloniex:

https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/btc/30_days
https://www.poloniex.com/exchange/btc_xmr

Whatever flaws in my methodology you want to point to won't matter. You can recreate the analysis whatever way you want and the result will still be that bitcoin is less volatile than monero.

Reptilia was just pulling numbers out of his ass in his original declaration.

blaaaaacksuit

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Who cares?

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 07:32:56 PM

Quote from: statdude on August 13, 2014, 07:25:28 PM

Is it just me guys, or is this retort pretty pathetic?

Its just you.

No it's not.

canonsburg

full member

Activity: 133

Merit: 100

Why are you using average % daily change to measure volatility?

Why not use the more conventional measure of variance?

statdude

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1000

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 07:32:56 PM

Quote from: statdude on August 13, 2014, 07:25:28 PM

Is it just me guys, or is this retort pretty pathetic?

Its just you.

By "guys", I was referring actual XMR speculators, not you or any other trolls or shills.

Just to make that abundantly clear.

drawingthemoon

full member

Activity: 135

Merit: 100

It might be you. And the more relavant part of the convo might get buried because of your personal resolution in the previous page to attack some posters.

Still like to see the raw data in maybe google spreadsheet as I wanted to derive some more numbers (for both XMR and BTC)

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 06:36:05 PM

Quote from: rpietila on August 13, 2014, 04:23:55 PM

1. Volatility is the variance of price over time. Now, since Bitcoin has had 10,000%+ runs during its history along with -93% declines, and Monero has had neither, the burden of mathematical/statistical proof is on you. Please make your calculations.

Here you go. I compared BTC to XMR in 2 ways, the first is a lifetime-to-lifetime comparison and the second runs from 5/20/14 - 8/12/14 (I couldn't find price data for XMR before 5/20).

The average % daily change for BTC across its lifetime is 0.84%, with a standard deviation of 0.0713 (this is the "volatility" number).

The average % daily change for XMR across its lifetime (starting on 5/20) is 1.16%, with a standard deviation of 0.1671, or 2.34x greater volatility than BTC.

The average % daily change for BTC in the same time period as XMR (from 5/20 to 8/12) was 0.33% with a st. dev. of 0.0277, which is 6x less volatile than XMR.

So no matter how you want to cut the numbers, you're wrong.

Quote from: rpietila on August 13, 2014, 04:23:55 PM

2. I checked your post history and would like to ask why you so bitter against many people?

Because many people such as yourself get your rocks off by making the world a shittier place for a living.

You are a Monero shill through and through. It is your job to get people to waste their money on this useless bullshit coin. And you can fool most of the people but you're not fooling me because I have an actual understanding and working knowledge of the terms you just throw around to impress others.

And that's how I can tell you are 100% bullshit.

Now have a nice day.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: statdude on August 13, 2014, 07:25:28 PM

Is it just me guys, or is this retort pretty pathetic?

Its just you.

statdude

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1000

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 07:19:31 PM

Quote from: statdude on August 13, 2014, 07:17:00 PM

Great, Nutildah proved his point, maybe he should now visit this page:

Being Too Literal : Living With Mental Illness Forum
http://www.psychforums.com/living-with-mental-illness/topic73233.html

As a professional fraud analyst I've helped put psychiatrists behind bars. If only XMR were held to some sort of regulatory standards I could try to do the same with you.

Is it just me guys, or is this retort pretty pathetic? For one, it doesn't really make sense. What does putting psychiatrists behind bars have to do with XMR? Hah!

And sorry, I don't consider $15/hr "Fraud Analyst" (yuk) to be "professional" on any level. I had friends that were "fraud analysts" when they were 19, how old are you?

Finally, how would regulatory standards have anything to do with me, as a simple holder? Are you insinuating people who own BTC should be "put behind bars too"?

Wow. Thank goodness they can't touch my XMR.

-P.S, I REALLY love how you deleted my posts right after posting this:

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 05:20:32 PM

Go ahead and troll my thread though, its fine with me. You're only making yourself look like an idiot.

Why delete my posts if "it's fine" and "I'm only making myself look like an idiot"?

Weak, bro.

othe

hero member

Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: rikkejohn on August 13, 2014, 06:52:17 PM

Quote from: statdude on August 13, 2014, 06:45:28 PM

I tried to be respectful, despite your lack of dignity.

But, I have zero respect for censorzhip nazis. We have no need for self-moderated cowardice here.

I've proven my point.

GG

the nazis did propaganda, too ... which you seem to accept regarding this coin

kind of hypocritical

Why don´t you just go back to your Litecoin investment thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8338609
and let us alone here... You obviously aren´t interested in XMR so why do you waste your time here; we aren´t interested in LTC but that doesn´t mean we are hijacking your threads with bullshit.
I can feel you, its sad that LTC is down 33.50% in the last 30 days while XMR is up 20% (src: bitcoinwisdom) but thats not our problem.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: statdude on August 13, 2014, 07:17:00 PM

Great, Nutildah proved his point, maybe he should now visit this page:

Being Too Literal : Living With Mental Illness Forum
http://www.psychforums.com/living-with-mental-illness/topic73233.html

As a professional fraud analyst I've helped put psychiatrists behind bars. If only XMR were held to some sort of regulatory standards I could try to do the same with you.

Topic: Monero (XMR) Speculation thread - page 11. (Read 50288 times)