Monero (XMR) Speculation thread - page 10.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: wadili89 on August 15, 2014, 05:16:03 PM

is monero still a strong coin in long term invesment? whats your thoughts? ty.

Nothing has fundamentally changed, nothing bad happened and the devs are working on improvements + an official GUI wallet. I am still seeing this coin as a long term investment, but I have to agree on the high inflation rate. Due the high inflation rate, monero will not bubble as much as other altcoins did (like x10 short term), but I think we still will see a mini bubble, reaching somewhere between 0.006 and 0.01.

EDIT: Read the monero missives here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8195249 (last one)

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/xmr-monero-a-secure-private-untraceable-cryptocurrency-583449 (overview)

Brilliantrocket

hero member

Activity: 826

Merit: 500

Quote from: wadili89 on August 15, 2014, 05:16:03 PM

is monero still a strong coin in long term invesment? whats your thoughts? ty.

How long term are we talking? Several months? I don't think the price will grow due to the high inflation of ~21,500 coins per day. Monero emits around 86% of its supply over 4 years. Not sure why they chose such a horrible emission schedule, it certainly hurts investor confidence.

wadili89

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1000

is monero still a strong coin in long term invesment? whats your thoughts? ty.

kbm

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 15, 2014, 05:05:56 PM

We broke 0.00334 as support level, but I think this was the last sell off before the next run-up. What do you guys think about this? Last runup we saw a similair sell off.

It could be a lot of things. Maybe a runup, maybe a rundown .. who knows? Maybe someone just really needed their BTC back because they're scared about it going sub-500 level. Maybe someone decided to jump ship because of the massive BCN commit (their purchase orders have doubled). Maybe the BCN devs have sold off their stashes if they did mine it for a little bit while the rest of us were using bastardized code .. and are trying to cause a panic to jump to their ship. Regardless of what the reasoning is, one result that's certain is that it will likely bring more XMR and BTC to the exchanges. Unless it was in cold storage, there's not a single person trading this market that hasn't put more money on the exchange than they had on there this morning. The result will be that trading decisions will be that much easier to make.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

We broke 0.00334 as support level, but I think this was the last sell off before the next run-up. What do you guys think about this? Last runup we saw a similair sell off.

Joshuar

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

eidoo wallet

Quote from: nioc on August 15, 2014, 04:50:18 PM

someone dumped into that bid support. ~ 40k XMR dumped in 2hrs. price now .00315

Common whale tactic. Probably trying to initiate a panic sell to get the price low enough, and at the right time, drop an array of buy orders that get filled.

nioc

legendary

Activity: 1624

Merit: 1008

someone dumped into that bid support. ~ 40k XMR dumped in 2hrs. price now .00315

thefunkybits

legendary

Activity: 1218

Merit: 1000

Welp, new monthly lows are here... but bid support is looking fierce! Shocked

celestio

sr. member

Activity: 770

Merit: 250

Wow, I must say there is a very large demand for Monero. I have a gut feeling in my stomach that there is gonna be a Bitcoin style explosion in price later on.

iourzzz

member

Activity: 94

Merit: 10

Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 14, 2014, 01:39:00 PM

Depth of XMR buy orders has increased by 100+ today, currently sitting at 390 BTC.

Prepare for liftoff.

Update: Now at 425 BTC.

Even around of me few people have started to accumulate after some due diligence and this is only a tiny part of overall rising interest.

iourzzz

member

Activity: 94

Merit: 10

Quote from: stellarman on August 14, 2014, 06:51:58 AM

I must say that my enjoyment of this thread has increased immensely as a result of putting five or six of the most offensive trolls on "ignore".

Try it. You'll like it.

If enough people ignore them, and enough people resist the temptation to reply, they may eventually go away.

+1

Totally the same. Never banned so much before... Hehe

saddambitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1004

Depth of XMR buy orders has increased by 100+ today, currently sitting at 390 BTC.

Prepare for liftoff.

Update: Now at 425 BTC.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: Johnny Mnemonic on August 14, 2014, 05:50:29 AM

This is a load of crap and you know it. Comparisons have to be made across a common metric (any measure of value that is not one of the subjects being compared. Regardless whether or not trading pairs exist, you have to establish an independent, single measure of value or the comparison is bullshit). Not only are you failing to do that, but you're using one subject as a base for making calculations on the other. Either you're very stupid or intentionally deceitful. You decide.

Nah, leave her alone. She is right. The "volatility" is typically the variance in daily returns, and with that metric, XMR has a higher one. What I was trying to say was not best expressed with the word. Let's move on.

stellarman

newbie

Activity: 60

Merit: 0

I must say that my enjoyment of this thread has increased immensely as a result of putting five or six of the most offensive trolls on "ignore".

Try it. You'll like it.

If enough people ignore them, and enough people resist the temptation to reply, they may eventually go away.

Johnny Mnemonic

hero member

Activity: 795

Merit: 514

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 06:36:05 PM

Here you go. I compared BTC to XMR in 2 ways, the first is a lifetime-to-lifetime comparison and the second runs from 5/20/14 - 8/12/14 (I couldn't find price data for XMR before 5/20).

The average % daily change for BTC across its lifetime is 0.84%, with a standard deviation of 0.0713 (this is the "volatility" number).

The average % daily change for XMR across its lifetime (starting on 5/20) is 1.16%, with a standard deviation of 0.1671, or 2.34x greater volatility than BTC.

The average % daily change for BTC in the same time period as XMR (from 5/20 to 8/12) was 0.33% with a st. dev. of 0.0277, which is 6x less volatile than XMR.

So no matter how you want to cut the numbers, you're wrong.

This is a load of crap and you know it. Comparisons have to be made across a common metric (any measure of value that is not one of the subjects being compared. Regardless whether or not trading pairs exist, you have to establish an independent, single measure of value or the comparison is bullshit). Not only are you failing to do that, but you're using one subject as a base for making calculations on the other. Either you're very stupid or intentionally deceitful. You decide.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 08:19:03 PM

Quote from: nioc on August 13, 2014, 08:15:43 PM

It's not like I need to defend rpietila because he does a fine job for himself.

Really? Where is he then? He's been strangely absent during this entire time he could have been defending himself.

Sleeping the usual ~8 hours per night.

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 06:36:05 PM

Quote from: rpietila on August 13, 2014, 04:23:55 PM

1. Volatility is the variance of price over time. Now, since Bitcoin has had 10,000%+ runs during its history along with -93% declines, and Monero has had neither, the burden of mathematical/statistical proof is on you. Please make your calculations.

Here you go. I compared BTC to XMR in 2 ways, the first is a lifetime-to-lifetime comparison and the second runs from 5/20/14 - 8/12/14 (I couldn't find price data for XMR before 5/20).

The average % daily change for BTC across its lifetime is 0.84%, with a standard deviation of 0.0713 (this is the "volatility" number).

The average % daily change for XMR across its lifetime (starting on 5/20) is 1.16%, with a standard deviation of 0.1671, or 2.34x greater volatility than BTC.

The average % daily change for BTC in the same time period as XMR (from 5/20 to 8/12) was 0.33% with a st. dev. of 0.0277, which is 6x less volatile than XMR.

So no matter how you want to cut the numbers, you're wrong.

I have no intention to cut the numbers here, since that would go against the definition of volatility I myself introduced. Thinking about it again, that measure (daily variance of price change) couldn't be more meaningless for anything but whatever - you won this round. Now welcome to the winners' club and buy Monero!

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: drawingthesun on August 13, 2014, 09:37:13 PM

In that case all this talk about Monero volatility is a bit baseless isn't it?

Well not really; I just based it out pretty thoroughly I thought.

I was simply refuting Reptilia's claim that monero is less volatile than bitcoin by using tangible evidence. I do apologize for getting out of hand even though its probably too late for that.

Quote from: drawingthesun on August 13, 2014, 09:37:13 PM

I mean I can't see how Monero could be less volatile than bitcoin considering it's being based off of it.

Thank you. The only coin less volatile than bitcoin is realcoin. I think that's what its called. Its the coin that is always pegged to the dollar.

Litecoin, NXT, Blackcoin and a handful of other dollar-backed cryptos have a chance at being less volatile than bitcoin but the majority of their trading is still bitcoin-backed, so that is highly unlikely.

Quote from: drawingthesun on August 13, 2014, 09:37:13 PM

I personally have been making all my trades taking into account the price of USD and see the lack of USD pair being a slight inconvenience.

I don't see the point of this unless you are working under an assumption that monero will fall in value when bitcoin goes up and vice versa, which isn't what is happening.

Quote from: drawingthesun on August 13, 2014, 09:37:13 PM

If Monero becomes some default coin for the wealthy and black market then thinking in terms of USD makes more sense.

Yes I agree especially if you can get that XMR/USD exchange going.

Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 13, 2014, 10:32:40 PM

i'm sick of this guy who has been around for about 4 months genuinely thinking we're trying to scam people out of money by promoting monero. on the contrary, we're trying to help the world achieve monetary privacy and be honest about it, no need for trust.

Don't worry, I'm done here. If your coin achieves what you aspire for it, I will applaud you for your efforts and post a picture of me eating my hat and washing it down with a glass of pee.

Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 13, 2014, 10:32:40 PM

it's like the movie THEY LIVE...you try to put the fucking sunglasses on someone and they refuse!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9rrgJXfLns

Yeah except I hope deep down you realize I'm Rowdy Roddy Piper in that scene.

Cool

saddambitcoin

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1004

i'm sick of this guy who has been around for about 4 months genuinely thinking we're trying to scam people out of money by promoting monero. on the contrary, we're trying to help the world achieve monetary privacy and be honest about it, no need for trust.

it's like the movie THEY LIVE...you try to put the fucking sunglasses on someone and they refuse!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9rrgJXfLns

drawingthesun

legendary

Activity: 1176

Merit: 1015

Quote from: nutildah on August 13, 2014, 09:24:30 PM

Quote from: drawingthesun on August 13, 2014, 09:21:46 PM

In just feel it's not a good analysis because bitcoin it's calculated pegged to USD and Monero is calculated pegged to Bitcoin, I think it'll be impossible for any coin pegged to a currency to be less volatile than that currency.

I understand where you're coming from but the fact is you cannot exchange USD for Monero so a USD/XMR pairing doesn't mean much. Why shouldn't I also have to calculate bitcoin into euros, pounds, dinars, yen and everything else and then make a mass average for Monero?

In that case all this talk about Monero volatility is a bit baseless isn't it? I mean I can't see how Monero could be less volatile than bitcoin considering it's being based off of it.

I personally have been making all my trades taking into account the price of USD and see the lack of USD pair being a slight inconvenience. If Monero becomes some default coin for the wealthy and black market then thinking in terms of USD makes more sense.

nutildah

legendary

Activity: 3010

Merit: 8114

Quote from: drawingthesun on August 13, 2014, 09:21:46 PM

In just feel it's not a good analysis because bitcoin it's calculated pegged to USD and Monero is calculated pegged to Bitcoin, I think it'll be impossible for any coin pegged to a currency to be less volatile than that currency.

I understand where you're coming from but the fact is you cannot exchange USD for Monero so a USD/XMR pairing doesn't mean much. Why shouldn't I also have to calculate bitcoin into euros, pounds, dinars, yen and everything else and then make a mass average for Monero?

Topic: Monero (XMR) Speculation thread - page 10. (Read 50274 times)