Although there are still two races left, the odds look difficult for Quartararo.
I also saw a very difficult opportunity in Quartararo in the two races remaining because Ducati was not too bad at Sepang and also in Valencia in the previous seasons (although Sepang had a MotoGP race break due to Covid-19), but in general Ducati also very good at both circuits so that makes Quartararo's chances very difficult this season, especially in the two races remaining.
Yes, hard for Quartararo to be Champion in this session, I think he must relax in the next 2 races and provide opportunities to Ducati racers, especially Bagnaia. if he insists, there is a possible slip and crash like a week ago. To beyond Bagnaia, he must finish in the top 3, even if Bagnaia doesn't get a point or crash, with I think it is mission impossible to happen on Sepang because Bagnaia has the ambition to lock the champion.
I think the two drivers (Quartararo and Bagnaia) have a very mature strategy in facing the race at Sepang this week, because on the one hand Quartararo wants to get a better position so that Bagnaia does not immediately lock the title this season at Sepang. But Bagnaia also wants to do his best at Sepang so he can seal the title early this season. And I think it's a very exciting race this week because there are two riders who are working on a strategy to make the championship look fierce again.
Quartararo needs to be calm as you say and need to fight like a rational most of the time during the next two races and when by doing so he sees an opportunity to start acting like a racer he should definitely do so.Of course crashing is not an option for him as this would mean immediately losing the Championship if Bagnaia manages to get 15 points in that race,things are critical and chances are the most for Bagnaia because he is in the most comfortable position and if he plays like a rational rider more than a racer during these two last races he will be Champion most likely.
I don't think it has to be 15 points, but 13 points will also be very enough for Bagnaia if Quartararo doesn't get a point at Sepang or only gets one point at Sepang. But if the difference is still below 25 points with Quartararo, then Bagnaia must be able to ensure his title in the closing race (Valencia) which is located in Spain.
Because Dorna's side are also still considering crashes on both of them during the race, so that's probably the obstacle for Bagnaia at this time.