Topic: No petrol/diesel car sales by 2035/ Reality or dream? (Read 3403 times)

I believe we can significantly reduce diesel and petrol car usage by 2035, though complete elimination may be difficult. We have about 10 years to improve infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs), enhance their range, and address concerns about reliability. Hybrid cars will likely become more prevalent during this time.

However, achieving this goal in my country by 2035 might be challenging. Our infrastructure is limited, and technology is not evenly distributed, making it difficult for people to adopt EVs.

I don’t know how and why I’m coming across this topic just now, and this is really and interesting topic as it is very much good for a country’s environmental health sanitation but I think my country should be counted out atleast for now until maybe the government finds a way to earn from it.
There are simply some factors that ought to considered immensely before implementing this kind of rules in a country and one of them includes:-
1. Availability of Light:, and I believe this is one of the major striking factors to consider when asking about electric vehicles as without good electric power supply, I don’t think electric cards should be talked about.

2: Cost of erecting power stations: this is another factors as it might seem to be a solution to the first challenge but on the other hand, the cost of erecting these stations aren’t cheap.

These two are major factors to consider when talking about implementing such rules as to banning non electric cars and that’s why I think my country wouldn’t be included in such list except otherwise.

N/B: I’m not trying to speak I’ll of my country but it is what it is.

If we talk about the conventional "luxury segment", in this case cars, then there are completely different indicators of value for the buyer. These are brand, value and exclusivity. Rolls Royce will not (in the foreseeable future) produce electric cars for the masses or for the middle class. And it's not that they can't, it's that as soon as the Rolls Royce sign appears on a "car for beggars" (conditionally), its value in the eyes of "elite" consumers will immediately decrease.  Mercedes, Porsche and similar brands are not the luxury segment. Yes they have Maybach (Daimler AG) and 911 S/T for example, yes it is a premium segment, but....
That's why they have and will have electric/hybrid cars in the mid to high price segment. Rolls Royce will have only in the very expensive price segment and only exclusive models.

Weird, I mostly see expensive EVs in the streets: Teslas, MBs, e-trons, Porsches etc. EV is expensive: you need chargers, solar panels, that kind of stuff for comfortable driving and use. 

I have got friends from the European Union and they have told me about the some many laws and inspections their cars are supposed to pass through every year. From my perspective, they sound like very tough regulations, you know. Here in Venezuela, there are no such inspections and the police does not enforce emmissions of cars, you can stand by the street and see cars emitting literal black smoke out their exhausts. So there are no problems here with old cars and no push towards people adquiring electrical cars eventually. No even mention we are an oil producing country.

In the end, countries like mine will end up importing those cars which are not suitable to transit in the EU, until you guys cannot longer comply with those very strict regulations and have to move onto EVs.

I know. I have two diesel cars. One is with EURO 4 exhaust and I have cut out DPF filter, other is EURO 6 with DPF filter and due to car mileage, it needs to be either cleaned (will help for time only) or replaced (expensive solution). Cant cut out this filter in newer car, because I wont pass annual inspection. Cut it from older car because no one would check its existence and it would cost 1/4 of cars value to replace it. However, government cant forbid me to use old car and pollute surrounding. I have never heard that there will be a law that will prohibit import of old cars the the country. Which makes «war against pollution» weird. Old car can continue to pollute, new car that is from the start is much cleaner, must keep the level «of clean exhaust» always on the high level.

In my neighborhood there are currently many electric vehicles being used, of course this is good because it reduces environmental pollution. but the problem is that not everyone is rich, not everyone has the money to own one, even now there are still people who don't have diesel-based vehicles, as time goes by everyone will definitely follow developments, but not everyone can fulfill it. I also heard the news that the government will reduce the use of electric vehicles because there are some things that are illegal, I don't remember what they are.

I think electric vehicles will go further in terms of resale value. because it includes sophisticated technology, whereas currently there are many gadgets whose prices are almost the same as diesel-based vehicles. However, in the future I don't mind it, because what I think about is how I can survive, one of which is adapting to the environment or technological developments.

When/If Electric vehicles start to be more expensive to ride, then indeed I could see and resurging into the usage and adoption of gas/diesel engines, however you must keep on mind governments of those developed countries usually pass laws which forbid the new manufacturing of diesel/gas powered vehicles, so in the future those people who wish to ride those again will find important legal difficulties when comes to accessing to those vehicles.
Once, new gas/diesel cars are gone, the old ones will be subjected to more stricter emission controls which will be almost impossible to comply with. It will be a slow but hard push onto forcing people to change to public transportation or buy an EV.

Do you have any idea of how difficult will be to keep an old car polluting at minimum levels?
The plan there is not to outright ban diesel and gas vehicles, because it would be perceived as unconstitutional and authoritarian, so the European Union will do it indirectly.

indeed biofuel is becoming a thing what im afraid though if the biofuel produced from what is considered a food then it might raise the price on food I mean if its coming from rotten palm oil or something like that then its gonna be fine but using
something that is considered food might causes food crisis but hopefully im wrong on this.
but undeniably, more and more commercial vehicles such as bus and other are trying to switch over into using electric vehicle.
what I see is that there's a pattern that if a vehicle is used based on schedule like bus it will be easier to switch over to electric vehicle because we can roughly estimates the time required for charging and at what time it should be scheduled to operate.
usually electric bus right now could sustain to be used for a whole day and be recharged when at night if im not mistaken.
that already good enough considering that we are still in early phase of switching over into something electric these days.

Should not the word economy stand next or after it when we talk about buyers choice? Like it is said «buyers vote with their purse». Wont it be that after switching to completely EV, electricity producers will increase prices? And I believe they will. More demand needs more supply, means more electricity stations, investments and etc. I think people right now buy EV not because they care about ecology, but because it is cheaper to drive EV in $/km ratio then with diesel or petrol. If it starts to cost more to ride, people would ask for cheap little diesel engine cars to return to masses.

I had massive hopes for Biofuel about 10 years ago or so because literally the potential is for complete replacement of normal oil reserves.  It is not science fiction that oil can be produced organically and using up carbon for modern cars to use in combustion engines.  Thats a possibility its been done in the laboratory and its possible however its not been engineered into a feasible business mass production scenario not for this last decade and that is greatly disappointing.  Im aware of rape seed oil and all kinds but the very best crop is not working out so far, it might at some time.

Many amazing things are possible but not quite feasible for every day consumers.   Hydrogen fuel cars are being explored but there is great doubts on its ability to deliver across an entire nation, its not a given just because yes the car works theres infrastructure questions.   Same for electric, however across the range of options I think electric is the one we are most advanced with.

Electric cars after all started in the Victorian age almost before the common oil or fuel car we use now electric was useful then and its improved till now though its been a slow journey we obviously have a great use, knowledge and ongoing need for electric as a fuel so why not the cars too.  Makes sense especially if and when they improve its various drawbacks.  

Number one word to decide all factors is efficiency, it has to compete with every fuel in some way and be reasonable as a choice.  I think mass production will deliver dividends on results possible, stay optimistic

I am not really surprised with the second point. Those who purchase luxury and sports cars still prefer gasoline or diesel run vehicles. I would say that EVs comprise for less than 1% of the market share in the luxury segment. And millionaires usually doesn't care about their own carbon footprint, although they are very vocal and supportive in fleecing the middle-class in the form of additional green taxes. So it is a good decision by Mercedes-Benz to move away from EV production. They should rather stick with the tried and tested tactics. 

Due to the fact that humanity as a whole and almost every person individually is not doing enough to combat the climate crisis, we have long ago approached the brink beyond which we will simply die out. The study, published in the journal BioScience on October 24, identifies 35 climate change critical indicators, with 20 of them reaching record extremes.
One of the most alarming findings is the rapid rise in average global temperatures. Before 2000, the Earth had never experienced a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times. In 2023 alone, this threshold was exceeded by 38 days. The report also shows that July last year was the warmest month in perhaps the last 100,000 years.
Humanity, through its stupidity and selfishness, is pushing Earth's systems into dangerous instability, and by the end of this century, three to six billion people, a third to half of the planet's population, may be pushed beyond the "habitable region." This will lead to extreme heat and limited food availability.
https://24tv.ua/tech/ru/uchenye-bjut-trevogu-klimat-na-zemle-menjaetsja-bezvozvratno-tehno_n2420368

Compared to this, the problems of business and the transition from fossil fuel engines to electric propulsion seem insignificant when the very existence of people on our planet is at stake.

Got some two topic related things to discuss.

1. Starting from 2025, some Europe countries are planning to make EURO 5 and EURO 6 diesel cars exhaust system annual technical inspection more strict. Which means, cars with cut away particulate filter are going to have troubles passing annual inspection. Why this DPF filter is needed? To make diesel exhaust more ecology friendly. Why people cut them away? Because replacement of this filter cost 1-3k EUR (filter is costly, replacement procedure cost is low as it is rather simple).

2. Mercedes-Benz reducing EV production, as sales and demand is low. Maybe this is due to brand is expensive and people prefer cheap EV. Maybe this is due to low demand on EV in general. Give me your thought please.

It's just a matter of the quality of the manufacturing or operating technology. Tell me - have you never heard about cases of spontaneous combustion of cars with internal combustion engine, when the cause was a battery or electrical wiring ? There is a huge number of such cases ! And how many fires have occurred in houses due to poor quality electrical wiring ? Poor quality electrical appliances ? From improper use?  I have not seen any statistics that would say that the number of spontaneous fires in electric cars is critically different from other cars, and that this problem is systematic and widespread ?

I have seen diesel companies trying to switch to something more sustainable like biofuel. It is good that we are starting to improve on different ways to protect our environment. I have no doubt that in 10 years, we can achieve something or invent something that could change the way cars work and for the better.

Do I think it can be implemented 100%? Yes, maybe in developed countries but for third world countries, it might be hard to acquire whatever innovation there is to come.

It might take longer for third world countries to catch up and implement the innovation completely across the country. But a step is a step and I am glad we are moving forward still with mother nature in mind.

well this one should be a concern we know the temperature varies across the world and indeed a battery could definitely react differently at hot temperature I think in those places they need to add some technology for heat dissipating im sure it was caused by the heat didn't properly get dissipated meanwhile the temperature outside car is already hot enough.
but the thing with these new technology is that, they will definitely find a way to prevent that, its up the their research and development department in giving some measure.
though to be frank, this kind of case, really rare, i mean if we are speaking fairly there are many cases of phone battery exploding in various place maybe due to improper use of the battery itself.
but yeah talking about car that have human sitting on top of it, this should be a serious concern for long term because people are just recently jumping into this technology but people definitely won't risk their safety for nothing.

Can happen anywhere that temperature is a factor, not just the heat but the cold is a serious issue for battery technology.   There are ways to mitigate this problem but it reduces efficiency and is a reduction in performance and increase in cost no doubt about it.   My biggest take on this whole technology is the development and direction of advancement.  If you believe they can improve the product then be bullish because of course cars with combustion engines were far from perfect in fact it took a century to really make them the modern wonder they are.  

There is no perfect product, we have to observe the high and low points and check there is a good chance of improvement.   I do think that's now true and batteries themselves are not all the same, they are paths to improvement underway.   Im not a chemist or even slightly qualified to judge but I think batteries will advance a great deal from now.

Would you care to provide the source of that information about exploding batteries in Venezuela? I am Venezuelan and I have not seen news about it here.
Also, I would like to point out that electrical vehicles here are quite rare and are reserved for people who have much money to pay for those. Even though we are going through a political and economical crisis, this is still an oil producing country and because of it, this may be one of the last countries in this continent which will choose to go through the transition from gasoline to electrical vehicles.
It is simply not convenient for the current political administration to encourage people to switch to electrical vehicles, because of how much this country is dependant on the selling of oil to the inner market and also the our foreign costumers.

By the way, water itself does not conduct electricity, it has to have disolved ions on it for it to be able to transport electrons, nevertheless, it would be possible the water being used by firefighters to indeed have some concentrations of minerals and salts which could make it suitable for the transport of electricity, how knows... It depends on the source of the tap water.  

The era of fuel-using cars is gradually coming to an end because the world is trying to reduce the amount of carbon been producing and if you look at places like Africa most of our cars like 80 % of them are using fuel and too much exposure to carbon dioxide as put our planet to risk. so companies are trying to reduce the production of fossil cars but the problem now is that in the process of providing a solution to our problem, we are creating more problems because even the cars they are trying to provide are not cheap, so how can we afford it when it is at that rate since they don't want to help matters we are going to continue using our fossil cars since those are the once we can afford. if not having an electric car will be nice.