Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 14. (Read 83024 times)

dude you've been around since 2011 and never gave into fomo before?

with the halving coming next year, hyped institutional markets (bakkt, fidelity) expected to come online soon, and the way the long term chart looks.....i'm thinking you won't need to wait 2+ years.

I'm thinking of buying more (perhaps a modest amount like 0.5-1 btc).  1) because we could shoot for 20k if not in the next several months than in the next 2-5 years.  2) to truly understand bitcoin culture and psychology you have to FOMO at least once.  So even if I lose a lot of money, it could be very educational!

Bought 0.8 btc around 9k (several days ago).

Unlike prior bull markets (notably at the top), we aren't seeing major divergences in the price of bitcoin by country/exchange that I know of.  Ex. 2017 we had a Korea premium of up to 30%(?) and in 2013 we had a Chinese premium of similar levels.

GBTC premium is relatively tame (33% when I last checked).

it looks to me like a single stablecoin backed by a basket of currencies and/or other assets. multiple stablecoins wouldn't make sense because it would only eat away at their use case by regionally segregating markets. the point IMO is to compete in the remittance market, so the aim is to push everyone into a single market and a single currency. the selling point being much lower fees than legacy money transmitters.

this is from calibra's FAQ page:

I reviewed my buying strategy (from 5k down to 1k).  That sure bit me hard! I built it to spend increasing large amounts in the 1k-3k range. So I bought relatively little in the 3k-5k range.  It got me a nice low cost basis, but fewer btc than I wanted.  It was far too conservative!

By contrast at the bottom of the 2015 bear market I was buying the same amount of btc each $10 drop.  And managed to buy a lot in the $200-$450 range.

This idea that FB's coin or bitcoin could serve the unbanked likes to overstate the use case.  Notably there are 1.7 billion unbanked people in the world, but most of these are probably in the 44% of the world's population that doesn't have internet access.

I don't see how FB is going to pull off a global coin that is stable, unless they are backing it with the USD. But that would only be stable in USD terms. Everyone else would be realizing capital gains and losses all the time.  Maybe more likely that they do a series of stable coins (Euro, USD, Yen, etc) and forget about international payments (other than the Euro bloc).  Their main advantage is they'll be able to fund a ton of lobbying.  So FB might be able to get legislation written to handle their use case.

It'll come, after we've all given up calling the top and the bears have mostly bought back. Bitcoin always goes further in both directions than we expect. I thought it would top at $6K. We'll probably go to $12K for good measure now.

Masterluc's $10K-->$6K call is still a possibility. Maybe it'll morph into something like $12,500-->$7,500 but something like that is definitely in the cards.

Currently 9340 and testing the yearly high of around $9420.  Placed bids from 7270 to 9270.  This might be the first time I've bought into a bull market (Unless you count 2013 I bought a couple btc at $100, I think after it stabilized a bit after the 2013 spring bull market).

Removed my bids below 2k. Still have a lot in the 2k-3.3k range.

But with a lack of fundamentals, stocks/property at all-time-highs -- pure bullish hype can be very irrational (and potentially very profitable).  So long as we can hold off the recession for another 6-12 months (one poll of economists had a 30% probability of a recession, I think in the US, in the next year).

The lack of a sizable pull back is very troubling.

I'm posting to get a timestamp.  Did I say I want to fomo (at around 9k) and then it went up $350?  I think so.  Still not fomoing. I suppose it is a crazy theory, but I think there is a chance that we could see the most unexpected dump ever (and not just a correction, but a dump down to say 2k-3k).  Though this chance is decreasing as we go full fomo.

go ahead. there's still time.

we've been consolidating around $8000 for a month. now that we've finally made new highs, that's a month worth of sellers (and shorters) being pressured to buy back. we're about to see some incredible fomo. i don't think this is stopping anytime soon.

I want to fomo.

It's probably being driven by hype around the block reward halving, slated for the first week of August. I know Bitcoin pumped into both the previous halvings.


I'm pretty worried about what it means for non-KYC exchanges where you only deposit/withdraw crypto. Mandatory KYC at Bitmex and others means no more Americans sneaking by with VPNs. Sucks for us.

Is it possible some crypto-only exchanges and brokers won't comply? Set up in a blacklisted country and say screw it to the legacy financial system?

$8400 bitcoin and litecoin pumped all the way up to $144 from the bear market low of $22. This is pretty crazy but does fit with Litecoin's pattern of being very boring and then doing exagerated moves that correlate with bitcoin bull markets, but in a delayed/weird way.

So I suppose it is possible that we aren't in a global recession yet and are in for another 1-2 years of bubble froth.  Which could explain the bitcoin price and stories like this:

Bitfinex issues $1 billion in tokens to replace the missing (or held by governments, nobody has clarified this) $850 million.  The tokens go from $1 to $1.93 in 25 days. Then they start buying them back. If they are buying back at 50k/day, that is a lot faster than I think their minimum in the whitepaper (27% of gross consolidated revenue), and they'll buy them back in 200 days.  So they'd buy back $2 billion in tokens in 200 days, but only made $404 million in 2018. It's more likely that they decided to kick off the buyback with some higher numbers using profits from the last x weeks/months.  The fun thing about this is that it is almost a reverse of the TH1 mining contract (neo-ponzi) that I fell victim to in that you can inflate the LEO token to infinity and Bitfinex will still be forced to buy it back!  (The major difference with the TH1 mining contract is that in the case of LEO bitfinex isn't obliged to spend more than 27% of its profits - so there is a bit of a limit, though once they are down to only a couple hundred LEO - why not pump them to $1 million?  I guess bitfinex would change the rules if you did this.)
https://leo.bitfinex.com

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/unus-sed-leo/

Why are people not more concerned about the new rule (is it just a proposal or is it likely to be implemented?) from the Financial Action Task Force?
https://cointelegraph.com/news/fatf-to-release-new-rules-for-global-crypto-sector-impacting-exchanges-funds-custodians

I'm not too concerned about that rule, though it could lead to an IRS crackdown which would get very interesting.

Paxful is just a P2P marketplace and escrow service, same thing as Localbitcoins. I have the same suspicions as you about fraud risks with these deeply discounted gift cards. I would steer clear of them after the horror stories I've heard about with Purse.io. I wouldn't want to put my Amazon account at risk by running lots of fraudulent cards through it. At high enough volumes, you could have the police knocking on your door!

This an interesting service.  You can buy Amazon gift cards (and others) at steep discounts. It's located in the US.  They are also doing money transmission to countries around the world by providing escrow services. Of course you need to worry about credit card fraud, charge backs, etc.  So don't release the funds until you have the goods!

https://paxful.com

Their Amazon gift card rates seem better than Purse -- some vendors are offering 11k bitcoin, so 37.5% over the current market rate of 8k, whereas Purse has closer to a 20% discount.

Has anyone used Paxful?  I've used Purse.io without too many issues for small purchases (had one or two orders that needed to be remade, but never lost any money).  I'm skeptical because it seems like the greater the discount, the more likely there is something illegal going on.  But I've also heard that there are people paid in Amazon Gift Cards and they need to convert them to regular currency (though doing it via bitcoin seems tedious).  If they were just using it to get around currency controls for countries like China and Venezuela - I'd be fine with that (and the US regulators probably wouldn't care about Venezuela - not sure how they feel about China's controls).

I get that. I was just trying to point out that it isn't comparable to futures where the broker and the clearing house take the lending risk.


It's been an existential problem for brokers in the past as well. Alpari and FXCM both went bankrupt when the Swiss Franc flash crashed in 2015 and they were unable to liquidate their customers' positions quickly enough to cover the margin they had lent them.
 

I'm not talking about a literal insurance policy.

It's more of an existential problem for the lending platform. If they allow borrowers to default without covering the losses, liquidity will dry up very quickly. Bitfinex has always covered these types of losses to prevent an exodus of lenders. Obviously if an event is catastrophic enough, they won't be able to cover everything, but that hasn't happened yet.

Sucks to be Poloniex right now.

The big difference is that futures don't use peer to peer lending. The brokerage and clearing firm take the risk of lending, not the customers. If you're the one taking the risk shouldn't you be the one to insure it?

Damn, that's a lot of coins. Is Poloniex really not paying the lenders back!? Do they not have an insurance fund? This is why futures exchanges always have insurance funds, to cover large liquidations when the book can't handle it.

I always felt like most altcoin markets lacked the liquidity for significant margin. I guess this sort of proves the point.

In other news, Binance is adding margin trading soon.