I'm wondering if this is going to turn into a nice v or u bottom (with a rebound to 6200). If it does, the chart is going to look a lot different than it did in the last bear market (and the bear market won't necessarily be over).
i was thinking about a w bottom. a double bottom essentially, although i've seen them work well with deep higher lows. it's too late for a proper v bottom, which rise quickly off the bottom. we ranged for 3 months instead.
to me, it doesn't look so unlike 2015. if we view this rally as a parallel to the june/july 2015 move, then there are two key differences. 1. we never saw a capitulation/v bottom and 2. this move is more compressed in terms of time. i guess we shouldn't expect things to play out exactly the same so i'm trying to keep an open mind about whether the bottom is in yet.
