nrd525 Market Tracker - page 15. | Bitcointalksearch.org

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: nrd525 on June 06, 2019, 03:20:49 PM

Is this the first time Poloniex margin lenders have lost a sizable amount of money?
https://www.coindesk.com/margin-lenders-lost-13-5-million-in-may-to-poloniex-crypto-crash

I don't recall this ever happening on Bitfinex, though we came close a couple times (and got bailed out (or saved by the price recovering) once I think by someone who bought the bitcoins during a flash crash or after it?). This was the big risk of lending out USD on Bitfinex especially in the early years like 2013.

Damn, that's a lot of coins. Is Poloniex really not paying the lenders back!? Do they not have an insurance fund? This is why futures exchanges always have insurance funds, to cover large liquidations when the book can't handle it.

I always felt like most altcoin markets lacked the liquidity for significant margin. I guess this sort of proves the point.

In other news, Binance is adding margin trading soon. Tongue

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Oh yes, I find Bitcoin SV a hilarious example of a lot the excess and hype that is wrong with many crypto speculators.

...

Is this the first time Poloniex margin lenders have lost a sizable amount of money?
https://www.coindesk.com/margin-lenders-lost-13-5-million-in-may-to-poloniex-crypto-crash

I don't recall this ever happening on Bitfinex, though we came close a couple times (and got bailed out (or saved by the price recovering) once I think by someone who bought the bitcoins during a flash crash or after it?). This was the big risk of lending out USD on Bitfinex especially in the early years like 2013.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: STT on June 02, 2019, 06:57:15 PM

Quote from: nrd525 on May 29, 2019, 11:52:08 PM

Bitcoin SV up 90% in the past 24 hours. From $60 (May 21) to $230 (May 29).
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-sv/

The gains are attractive but the market is abnormal as I understand it. Dangerous ground to gamble on unless people are confident of actual business done on that blockchain rising. Playing whales can be painful, but also profitable if people caught this wave up well done. Im mixing investment perspectives with trading but personally I prefer to trade a product I have belief will do well long term not just short so on that Im unsure so far tbh

Same, I need to believe in the fundamentals (or at least that there is sustainable hype) to trade something. BSV just seems like a disaster waiting to happen in every way. Craig Wright will eventually run out of stupid stunts to pull and BSV will resume its bleed to oblivion.

STT

legendary

Activity: 4102

Merit: 1454

Quote from: nrd525 on May 29, 2019, 11:52:08 PM

Bitcoin SV up 90% in the past 24 hours. From $60 (May 21) to $230 (May 29).
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-sv/

The gains are attractive but the market is abnormal as I understand it. Dangerous ground to gamble on unless people are confident of actual business done on that blockchain rising. Playing whales can be painful, but also profitable if people caught this wave up well done. Im mixing investment perspectives with trading but personally I prefer to trade a product I have belief will do well long term not just short so on that Im unsure so far tbh

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

I was watching Crypto Kirby (after you get past all the silliness, he makes some good points, though also hedges everything) and liked his comment about how it shouldn't be that easy to make money. This year almost everyone has made money, unless a lot of people are buying in very late and selling the bottom. A 12% correction from 9080 to 800 is laughably small, as is that from 8250 to 7000. We should be seeing bigger corrections (relative percent), not smaller ones! Our biggest correction was from 4300 to 3400!

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Bitcoin SV up 90% in the past 24 hours. From $60 (May 21) to $230 (May 29).
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin-sv/

figmentofmyass

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1483

Quote from: nrd525 on May 27, 2019, 03:02:58 PM

Any good comparisons between the steepness/speed of the run-up now vs 2017? I think it looks steeper than the early bull market (late 2016 / early 2017), but not as steep as the final stages.

if this crashes into the monthly close so we see a big wick, it will look like the october 2015 - january 2016 period. that would mean a fast initial crash followed by months of establishing a new range. i would expect that range to be higher than the $3000s-$4000s range from earlier this year.

that's a big "if" though. we've got less than a week until the candle closes, and right now it still looks like the trend is going vertical. Shocked

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Any good comparisons between the steepness/speed of the run-up now vs 2017? I think it looks steeper than the early bull market (late 2016 / early 2017), but not as steep as the final stages.

If we get all bull crazy, the pull backs will only last 1-5 days, not the 11 days (May 14-24) or 29ish days (Apr 2 to Apr 30) we're seeing now. Hmm, that said, that drop from 29 days in neutral to 11 days is very dramatic. And the prior neutral period was around Feb 17 - Mar 29 = 40ish days.

Google trends are up and bitcoin is becoming more useful for scams, creating securities (ex. Bitfinex's $1 billion token issue), and/or speculation. So I guess those are fundamentals.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

NVT signal looks ready for dump. Bounced off 8950 but looks like we're going through 9k in the next hour if not minutes.
http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/

figmentofmyass

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1483

Quote from: nrd525 on May 23, 2019, 03:13:42 PM

>>so why would they want to hold USDC? what's the appeal over credit cards?

Discounts at the merchant level.

but why not for bitcoin? the way i see it, bitcoin should be extremely attractive to merchants since payments are irreversible. eliminating the risk of chargebacks should enable them to offer significant discounts over other payment methods. this is why bitpay is charging 1% with no chargeback risk when credit cards are costing merchants 3-5% after fraud costs.

by using USDC, they might be able to save on bitpay's fees, assuming coinbase allows them to cash out cheap. but the thing is, i don't think consumers are interested in spending stablecoins.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

>>so why would they want to hold USDC? what's the appeal over credit cards?

Discounts at the merchant level.

I'm probably biased as I'm morally opposed to credit cards. I only recently switched from using debit to a card with cash back. The credit cards are brutal for retail (notably grocery stores that have very slim profit margins).

Bitfinex's $1 billion dollars of $1 tokens are now trading at $1.12. Are they planning to buy them back or just use them for discounts? If they buy them back will they do it at the market rate?
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/unus-sed-leo/

jademaxsuy

full member

Activity: 924

Merit: 221

I think you are earning a lot compared to your losses knowing that you have been here from the past years where bitcoin has just started. It is a nice thing to know that someone like you had made this far with bitcoin. I have only knew few that are being here from the time where bitcoin is not that known to all users around the world. Anyway, I just do not clearly understand why you posted this thread in tracking the btc market. It is better to present a graphical image to easily draw a conclusion on the market price movement for btc.

figmentofmyass

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1483

Quote from: nrd525 on May 22, 2019, 03:39:43 PM

Centralized stable coins (with zero capital gains/losses reporting requirements) might crush Bitcoin as a payment method:
https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-now-lets-merchants-accept-payments-in-the-usdc-stablecoin

what's the point, from a consumer perspective?

people hold BTC as an investment, store-of-value, etc and i've seen data from bitpay that suggests it's spikes in capital gains that induces BTC spending to rise......otherwise, as expected, people are holding their coins rather than spending them. that's gresham's law for ya!

so why would they want to hold USDC? what's the appeal over credit cards?

Quote from: nrd525 on May 22, 2019, 03:39:43 PM

I remain very puzzled as to why we haven't replaced credit cards with at least ACH or a similar near zero cost method in the US.

1. poor people depend on the credit---bank transfers don't offer a line of credit
2. credit card incentives like cash back, frequent flyer miles, etc

crypto is amazing for merchants but it offers nothing for consumers. so banks are left competing for what consumers actually want---access to credit and incentives/discounts.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Centralized stable coins (with zero capital gains/losses reporting requirements) might crush Bitcoin as a payment method:
https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-now-lets-merchants-accept-payments-in-the-usdc-stablecoin

I remain very puzzled as to why we haven't replaced credit cards with at least ACH or a similar near zero cost method in the US.

figmentofmyass

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1483

Quote from: nrd525 on May 17, 2019, 02:54:08 PM

Ha I pulled my sell orders (8.4k - 8.9k) before the flash crash. 6.2k on bitstamp. 6.6k on bitfinex/coinbase.

Normally Tether fears end up rebouncing back to normal. This time it looks like the flash crash was much larger than normal due to general sentiment that we were overdue for a pullback. The rally is still on very thin water.

most of the market stopped at the $6600 area which was not a totally unexpected pullback level. looks like the whole dump was driven by a bitstamp whale dumping into a thin book. (stamp dumped to $6178)

i suspect the market will consolidate and push higher after a solid shakeout.

Quote from: nrd525 on May 17, 2019, 02:54:08 PM

Bitfinex issues $1 billion in LEO tokens to make up for the $850 million missing. Makes them tradable. Sure it works if we're in an insane bull market. Will it work if we plunge to 2-3k?

it worked in 2016 with BFX tokens. i think 2016 might be a good parallel for where the market cycle is too. i really don't expect a return to $3k.

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Ha I pulled my sell orders (8.4k - 8.9k) before the flash crash. 6.2k on bitstamp. 6.6k on bitstamp/coinbase, 7k on bitfinex.

Normally Tether fears end up rebouncing back to normal. This time it looks like the flash crash was much larger than normal due to general sentiment that we were overdue for a pullback. The rally is still on very thin water.

Bitfinex issues $1 billion in LEO tokens to make up for the $850 million missing. Makes them tradable. Sure it works if we're in an insane bull market. Will it work if we plunge to 2-3k?

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

Recession guess timeline 1-2 years.

Do you need to declare capital gains on foreign currencies (eg. if the exchange rate differs by anything since when you purchased it) when you are visiting other countries? Or is bitcoin different because it is mostly treated as a commodity?

So on the one hand ignoring the bear news means we're in a bull market (buy signal), but on the other hand it means people are being stupid (sell signal).

Without an organized pro-crypto lobby there seems to be no reason for a relatively reasonable bill like that to pass (opposition from crypto skeptics, loss of tax revenue, banks, etc).

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: nrd525 on May 14, 2019, 03:38:15 PM

all or most of the analysts are ignoring global economic conditions and the upcoming recession (and also bitcoin search trends and the lack significant use for transactions)

The upcoming recession.....what's your timeline on this?

Quote from: nrd525 on May 14, 2019, 03:38:15 PM

lots of hype about adoption from Microsoft and Ebay (seriously?) and the Consensus conference

I think there was more hype about Bakkt's announcement of physically-settled futures launching in July and the news about Flexa enabling the spending of crypto at Starbucks and other major retailers.

More importantly though, we keep seeing the market ignoring bearish news. The Bitfinex news, the Binance hack. That's not indicative of a bear market.

Quote from: nrd525 on May 14, 2019, 03:38:15 PM

if you use crypto for payments (like buying coffee), you are legally obliged to declare capital gains or losses in the US and presumably most other countries. I doubt governments will make an exception for small or micropayments as you could just do a large number of them and save yourself a ton of money on capital gains taxes.

There is a bill in committee that would make gains realized in this way exempt up to $600/year. I'm not sure how likely it is to pass though: https://www.coindesk.com/us-lawmakers-file-bill-to-exempt-cryptocurrencies-from-securities-laws

nrd525

legendary

Activity: 1870

Merit: 1023

1) all or most of the analysts thought there would be resistance at 6k

2) all or most of the analysts are ignoring global economic conditions and the upcoming recession (and also bitcoin search trends and the lack significant use for transactions)

3) lots of hype about adoption from Microsoft and Ebay (seriously?) and the Consensus conference

4) if you use crypto for payments (like buying coffee), you are legally obliged to declare capital gains or losses in the US and presumably most other countries. I doubt governments will make an exception for small or micropayments as you could just do a large number of them and save yourself a ton of money on capital gains taxes. Nobody is talking about this, but this makes the Lightning Network 100 times less potentially useful in many countries.

Sold 0.2 at 8120, 0.2 at 8220, and 0.2 at 8320.

Was there a cause of the $200-$500 pump in 2015?

Normally I'd say the higher we rise the further we fall, but there is a decent chance we don't get the full retracement to 4k and that we'd stabilize say at 5-6k, slowly grind down and then take a lot longer (like 6-12 months) to reach the bottom of this bear market at 2k-3k. This is a highly speculative call.

illyiller

hero member

Activity: 697

Merit: 520

Quote from: nrd525 on May 13, 2019, 03:20:23 PM

I think there is some evidence of bitcoin being extra weird. So I don't expect normal rules/guidelines to apply. Eg. we might just crash to 3k and pulverize all the resistance along the way, and then break to a new low of 2k. Or we might make a run for 10k.

Given the recent rally, I'm surprised at the number of people who still think we're going to $3k or lower again. It looks to me like we're taking the $10k route.

Masterluc thinks we'll spike to $10k then test the $6k level. That sounds plausible to me.

Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 15. (Read 83119 times)