Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 16. (Read 82745 times)

Coinbase at 6290, Bitfinex at 6370 - premium is almost gone.   I think it was as high as $400 or 8% earlier.  Are they actually letting people withdraw USD?  How dare they!

Is bitcoinwisdom.io not working so well?  Missing candles...

Bitcoin market share 58% - highest since December 2017!

My record on buying the bottom (or shorting to it) is much better than selling at the top.  Probably because I'm a pessimist.  I'm wondering if I should sell more if we do a crazy run up (like 10k), and if so, when.  I'd like to wait until Nov 20-24 this year to pay the longterm capital gains rate.

Though if we make a run at 10k, right now it looks like it could be a fast one (say 30-45 days).

Just realized that coinbase removed all my limit orders that I made last year going down to $1000. Fortunately I didn't miss out on any trades.  But I didn't receive any notification for this and it could easily have cost me tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars (if bitcoin falls to 2k and then has another bull cycle).

Apparently they did this for everyone. What idiots!  

Sold 0.5 btc at 5695.  Plan is to rebuy at 3000-3400.
Sold 0.5 btc at 5750 (bullish signal!)
Sold 0.7 at 5920.

i'm going with "desperate for cash".

the NYAG exposed the bitfinex/tether insolvency. $850m in bitfinex customer funds had been seized for involvement with money laundering cases. bitfinex opened a "line of credit" with tether (secured only by dividend-bearing shares in ifinex) to cover the shortfall.

now that the NYAG put their insolvency in the spotlight, they are scrambling to repeat what they did in 2016 after they were hacked: issue tokens to cover the insolvency. this time, i see no signs of offering shares in ifinex---they are only offering a revamped BFX token which offers no dividends. the tokens are only worth trading discounts (like BNB) and will be bought back eventually as BFX tokens were.

they're trying to replicate what binance did, but you'd have to be crazy to finance bitfinex's debt for nothing more than trading discounts. they are doing this at a time when regulators are seizing money from and filing court orders against bitfinex......

$1 billion tokens in a bear market!  Maybe preparing for a bull market, looking at the Binance tokens (doing very well), or desperate for cash.

https://www.coindesk.com/not-a-white-paper-marketing-document-details-1-billion-bitfinex-token-sale

3.6% US unemployment. Lowest in 40 years.  Wage growth highest since during the recession (are wages so stick that they stay at 3% up until we hit 10% unemployment as happenned in the last recession according to the graph I saw?)

Haven't sold my 1-3 btc (yet?).

Timing: do property and stock (and presumably also crypto) bubbles burst typically 1 year to 18 months before the actual recession?  If so the bitcoin bear market is early, but I'd be expecting property and stock to go bear soon.

The problem with the altcoin market cap (or share of total crypto market cap) is that it doesn't take into account the growing number of altcoins.  What is the solution to this that would let you compare altcoin vs bitcoin performance?  For instance, you might take the top 10 altcoins in 2015 and see how their share has changed vs Bitcoin.  And then do this every year, or even every day and take a weighted average.

Pychologically with altcoins you might have a distraction effect.  SHINY NEW ALTCOIN/ICO which goes 100x (and you either miss out on or get a small piece of the action) makes you forget about all the money you lost on xyz altcoin.  LOL at the Beyond Meat stock market IPO that went 3x today.

Most altcoins that are heading to zero are going to take a very long time.  I'm more claiming that the majority are going to fall 70-85%, and much fewer will "die" and fall 95%-99%.  Ooh, I wonder how many altcoins have gone completely delisted?  For instance, it looks like Bitconnect Coin isn't listed anywhere.

People think alt coins too high is when they are above zero in too many cases, if they are used they wont be that low possibly ever.    Not while transaction costs (speed etc)on Bitcoin are any discouragement to use, alt coins are useful in that alternative so thats all they need to continue.    It might be they have peaked during 2017 in exchange value to BTC but good development and progress in protocols is always possible and thats a good thing for crypto in general

I must have seen this thread before at some point but it wasnt on my list so I've missed all these predictions and helpful posts.  

I studied statistics and probability also many years ago and its applicable to just about every other subject in considering possible outcomes.    It gets a bad name and TA in general when people forget its never stating a certainty and stop loss is always needed.


Any significant profits probably need to be handled by a business setup.   Personal taxes suck unless you have favourable gambling laws then so long as its not your main income its much simpler to handle via that route.   I really dont think we go straight up, not when the 6000 area was such massive support previously.    Its reinforced concrete with steel bar in comparison to most levels, just passing through without drama seems improbable.

For extremes I consider the USD and treasury bond market as quite relevant.   Accuracy is added by contrast and its the other half of the see-saw.  The BTC low shown now matches a change in sentiment from the FED which is always big news.    My big watch is a lower high on the dollar index and if that occurs then sure we'll ahead full for a higher BTC price generally over years.
   I think thats a genuine influence on price direction and these big low calls, obviously USD massively outweighs BTC and its much less probable to get this low or move through standard deviations from the moving averages unless pushed by USD strength.   I think we see a softer dollar generally, its politics so its hard to call but I hear zero debate on reforming a hard dollar policy, running a fiscal surplus, etc

Thinking about selling 1-3 btc to try and buy back at 2k-4k.

Magical Internet Money

They are subsidizing the lending rate (lenders are paid more than borrowers are paying)

They aren't paying out ponzi rates (notably earning 2.5% on ETH is not worth it, but 13% on DAI is good to great - if there is very little risk).

How secure is your money if ETH or DAI plummet?  Are stablecoins like DAI actually stable or prone to any kind of problem.  What happens if there is a bug in the smart contract?

https://www.dharma.io

One of the ways that Tether pumps crypto is by falsely increasing the coin market cap. It shouldn't be included.   I'm also wondering whether Binance coin should be.  Is there really that big of a difference between them issuing regular securities (not counted in the market cap) vs issuing a token (counted)?

There are some obvious alt-coin calls - like Bitcoin SV is not worth $1 billion market cap.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall another 90-95%.

Big Tether news!  Bitfinex lost $850 million or got scammed by Crypto Capital for that amount and covered it with Tethers!  Is there a current market valuation of the Bitfinex corporation?  IE is any of their stock trading?

It's a big house of cards when they rely upon selling stock to cover losses/hacks.  What are they going to do once they run out of stock?  Or if the stock price plunges to zero as we go deeper into bear market territory (or people move to more reliable exchanges).

Imagine if Bitcoin doubles in price each year, and you are only losing 20% of your funds to hackers each year - so you are happy!  What a crazy thing.

sadly, it does indeed feel like people are too bullish. this isn't what it felt like at all when we broke out in late 2015. at that point, everyone was rekt and no one took the bulls seriously. they were laughed at.

i'm growing weary of this rationale that altcoins are "still too high". we've seen coins drop 95-99% from their ATH. also, that sort of thinking really damaged me in 2015 when the bull market began when i was simply too bearish for my own good. markets will always challenge our biases and there is never any such thing as "too high" or "too low" IMO.


to each his own. i happily swing trade getting taxed at my normal income rate cuz all my other income has self employment tax on top. not so with my trading income.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrGx0lhdNBY
Probability that Bitcoin has bottomed at $3100.  5 hour massive video. I haven't watched it all.

My probability: 25%.  Mostly based on psychology (needing more pain to wreck everyone who thinks we will have another bull market), altcoins/ICOs being too high, and we don't know what will happen when a recession hits (altcoins/ICOs probably take a huge hit, bitcoin takes a big hit).

I'm thinking we'll bottom at around $1900-$2500.  Could goes as low as $1000.

Of course am I actually selling my bitcoins to buy them back lower? Heck no.  Would I do this if I had a 0% capital gains tax rate?  Maybe for 1/5th of my stack.  Do I have bids placed down to 1k?  Of course - dating back to November or December 2018

https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Is Litecoin just being pumped? Or is there real significant news? The rise from $22 to $98 (and only a small selloff to $80 now) is very exagerated.

By contrast, ETH is up only 120% (lol).

Another interesting way to make money, especially in the US, is that there are a lot of credit card offers that will you a bonus of $150-$200 if you spend $500 or up to $2000 in a three month period (while also giving you 2% cash back).

I'm working my way through my second cash back bonus so far.

If we get another bull market, it might be worthwhile to be prepared to lend USD (and possibly EUR) at Bitfinex or elsewhere if this is possible.  So setting up an offshore corporation if applicable.  Is there any way to do this? I think Bitfinex doesn't even allow offshore corporations if they are controlled by US residents.  Poloniex banned margin trading/lending for US customers (but does it apply to offshore corporations?)

https://www.bitfinex.com/stats

Might be a good way to make 10%-20% APR while having less risk than direct investment in bitcoin. Though the risk will be correlated (exchange hack or a flash crash could be bad).

I'm thinking this is going to be a great fake out.  There might need to be one more vicious move to the downside than 80% of people are expecting.  With similar reasoning, the bear market might have to be more brutal each time as more people gain the experience of waiting for the next bull market.  Though if this is in percentage terms it goes against the slow compression we're seeing (each bear/bull market is smaller than the prior one). However it might seem more brutal (or positive in the case of bull markets) as the absolute amount of money is larger, there are more people invested, and there is greater media attention.

So now that I think about it, I really like the idea that each future bear market is likely to more bearish and each future bull market more bullish due to the absolute numbers.  For instance, I'm personally planning on investing a lot more money in this upcoming bear market (especially if we go to 1k) than in 2013 and have already invested slightly more.

Note while search trends for "Bitcoin" on Google "worldwide" on the "2004 to present" time frame looks like it might trend up from 8 last month and a general low of 8-9 to a bit higher in April -- don't believe the "16" projection for April which has already been downsized from "17" yesterday. It seems more likely to come in around 10, so long as BTC price doesn't move that much.
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=bitcoin

Also for search trends, is Nigeria really that much into bitcoin?  They are #1 region.  And some of the other countries don't make that much sense.  Unless there is some tv/movie/song about bitcoin that is big in Nigeria.

i was thinking about a w bottom. a double bottom essentially, although i've seen them work well with deep higher lows. it's too late for a proper v bottom, which rise quickly off the bottom. we ranged for 3 months instead.

to me, it doesn't look so unlike 2015. if we view this rally as a parallel to the june/july 2015 move, then there are two key differences. 1. we never saw a capitulation/v bottom and 2. this move is more compressed in terms of time. i guess we shouldn't expect things to play out exactly the same so i'm trying to keep an open mind about whether the bottom is in yet.