Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 39. (Read 83088 times)

939 (at BFX).  I think we might be in a push to $1000 for the new year's =)

BFX tokens are only at 51 cents. I wonder if people are selling them to realize the capital loss from the Bitfinex hack (and use that to offset capital gains for tax purposes). I'm considering doing this (note: this isn't professional tax advice).

The low BFX USD swap rate (0.07%/day) and low amount of outstanding swaps are indicators that this isn't in full bubble mode - and also that there is more money available to fuel a bubble if speculators wanted to take more margin long positions.

Bitcoin is 88% of the market cap for crypto-currencies.  I didn't realize how big Ethereum was (900 million cap) - though declining.
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage

Bitcoin: $820!

You'd think that the BFX token would increase in USD value as Bitcoin increases, but in fact today it is down 3.8% - and down to 51.5 cents off its 64 cent high.

As Bitcoin increases in value (it was around $600 when BFX was at 64 cents), it should mean more volume for Bitfinex (at least in USD) and more fees.

However, it could be that people are selling their BFX tokens to gamble after greater returns with Bitcoin.

So I used to think that the BFX token might be over-priced, in which case now it is more fairly priced.  I wouldn't necessarily buy it though, as it should be heavily correlated with the BTC price.  Would a BFX long position slightly decrease your risk if you are long BTC?  (For one thing it is unlikely to go above $1 - unless someone gets margin called - that would be hilarious!).

So it broke $800 USD. And an important point is that it is 15% more in Yuan and 20% more in Euros.  So nearer those all-time highs, except that the Yuan high was 10% over the USD high (after being converted at the 2013 exchange rates).

The Bitcoin price just being steady at around $780 USD is very bullish.

What do people think about the volume we're seeing?  Is it enough to sustain a healthy and continuing bull market?

The volume on Bitfinex and Bitstamp looks pretty bad - much lower than the June 2016 bull market, and the Nov 2015 bull market.

The 777 (USD) rally looks very bullish.  It's interesting that Bitfinex's importance has diminished.  USD swaps are down to $19 million, off their recent highs of $25 million - and far below the $45 million we saw in July.  So that also means that Bitfinex could easily increase their swaps by at least $5 million, and probably by 30+ million if we have an even larger bull rally (it doesn't really depend on the price change so much as the demand that it generates for margin positions)

https://www.bfxdata.com/swaphistory/usd

BFX swap rates are doing better than average. The USD rate is 0.1% - 0.12% / day and even the BTC rate is up to 0.035%.  Typically the USD rate is more around 0.03%/day and the BTC rate is around 0.005-0.01%/day (eg not worth it).

It looks like the USD swap lending whale is gone. They were supplying the market with up to $1 million/day and keeping rates at 0.07-0.10% during the June/July run-up.  Now I expect that the USD swap rate will head down to 0.03% in the long run, but it is a good return so long as the exchange doesn't get hacked too often...

Global bond rates are going up as investors expect a tiny bit of inflation.  So we might finally be breaking out of the era of zero interest rates.  Of course in several years, notably in the US, we could be heading for a recession - as they tend to happen every ten years or so.

So my recommendations remain - lend swap at BFX, go long BTC (and hold for 1+  years), and stay away from all alt-coins.

We had bull markets in Oct/Nov of 2015, Nov 2014 (or more of a bull-spike - didn't last long), and Oct/Nov 2013.  

well, I think it could reach $800 also... but not $1k yet like others say

I think so brother, what do you think ?

More bad alt-coin performance as LTC continues to do badly compared to BTC and ETH is dropping.

The big question is are we going to break 800 USD and have a crazy bull-market for Christmas?

Trump's election win caused a brief 4-5% increase which stabilized at 2%.  That's a bit different from the stock market where the Dow futures were down 900, but then by the time the Dow opened it actually went up.  Weird.  It's possible that Trump could go with high spending (defense and infrastructure), low taxes, low interest rates, and/or trade wars (or more likely threats of trade wars) -- all of which could hurt the US dollar and help Bitcoin.

Also - I made a killing on PredictIt.org on the election night (even though trades were delayed by as much as 20 minutes!).  I tell my friends to stay away from the website as 90% of people will lose money, but as you are fellow Bitcoiners, you should take the most of this opportunity to engage in rampant speculation on events that you know little about!

More seriously, if you are the kind of person who won a contest estimating the number of candies in a jar at age six, bought world almanacs as a teen, have developed statistical models of board games for fun, have been quantifying/estimating everything and are able to see beyond your political ideology - PM me. You might have what it takes to make a killing on the website and I'd like to form a group of people to trade ideas and build models.  Unfortunately most of my real-life friends aren't statistical geniuses...

Coindesk have got a lot worse & more obvious with their pumping & glorifying of shit coins. I used to enjoy reading their site but not any more.

Re: your last sentence - buy now not once things are confirmed.

That ZCrash (Zcash price crash).  LOL.  Down 80% today, down 80% yesterday.

Also, whenever Bitfinex adds a new coin it tends to crash.  The sad thing about this is that it speaks to the gullibility / poor decision making skills on their part.  That is probably a big downside of startup culture - too much optimism.

Most probably it will go up brother once SegWit is locked-in.

So I'm sure the technical aspects of Zero Cash are fascinating.  That said, it also suffers from an overdose of your typical alt-coin hype.

Coindesk has a financial interest in this (which they disclose at the bottom of the article):
http://www.coindesk.com/investors-going-crazy-new-digital-currency-called-zcash/

My general advice on alt-coins, really without exception, is to stay away.

Is Bitcoin going up because of Segregated Witness?  I'm thinking I should buy more once there is the next round of developer drama.

I don't believe in Elliott Waves, but for those who do - doesn't it look like we're ready for a third breakout wave around December which could have us hit $1200?

The fact that other people use them can make them meaningful.  Also, in the US, we could see a stable Clinton government elected - and possibly even pass a budget (instead of a continuing resolution) - which could be good for the economy.  Though that might take a Dem majority in the house which is unlikely.

if you say arbitrage bitfinex to coinbase can take profit 25 dollar/bitcoin
your calculate is withdraw fiat money in fee wire transfer or not, because fee wire transfer is big so this only profit 25dollar/bitcoin is only pay fee wire transfer still is not enough
this now where your arbitage can take profit,

RRT tokens down to 10 cents =)

Poloniex BTC lending rates are down again (0.028%/day - not worth it).