I'm reading the book Plutocrats - about the rise of the super rich. I recommend it.
It strongly reinforced my opinion that Bitcoin could be used by the super rich as a store of value (or some other purpose) and thus become extremely valuable. (Of course it could also totally fail - the DAO is a great recent example of this). So for the rest of us, who aren't in the top 0.1% or even top 1%, it makes some sense to invest in the bubble/moon dream. Of course, only risk what you can afford to lose. The book also noted that people who live in communities/countries with rapid economic growth are less happy than poor farmers. So while Bitcoin could make you rich, it is also likely to make you unhappy. For instance, you might have 10 bitcoins and be envious of those with thousands.
At BFX USD swap rates are low (0.03%/day), but BTC swap rates are higher than norm (aka 0.05%/day). Very paradoxical unless someone is borrowing the BTC to short alt-coins?
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 38. (Read 83024 times)
The interesting thing about this price recovery/possible return to bull market is the lack of over the top fervor. Notably the China premium is near zero. And currently OkCoin futures are actually below Bitstamp and Bitfinex!
There is also a lack of demand for USD swap at Bitfinex (maybe partially because they started to charge you for a full day even if you just use it for a minute, but perhaps not - as would the 0.04% really make a difference?)
So this run-up looks a lot healthier than the past one.
There is also a lack of demand for USD swap at Bitfinex (maybe partially because they started to charge you for a full day even if you just use it for a minute, but perhaps not - as would the 0.04% really make a difference?)
So this run-up looks a lot healthier than the past one.
Part of the BFX token increase could be caused by the policy change where they started making people with short positions pay for the token reimbursements and those with long positions getting them. This was an overdue change that makes a lot of sense to me. It also dramatically increases the cost of shorting.
Apparently the BFX token reimbursement was easy to predict (someone on Reddit got it within 0.25%) based on trading volume. I think there is something else going on.
We're at a BTC price crossroads. If we stay at over 1000 for an extended period of time (say 4+ weeks) it is very bullish. We could be entering another bull market (and potentially a crazy one that goes up 100% or more), or if we fail to do this we could have an extended bear market (even 1-2 years). Of course this is all sentiment based. The fundamentals seem decent - though not stellar.
We're at a BTC price crossroads. If we stay at over 1000 for an extended period of time (say 4+ weeks) it is very bullish. We could be entering another bull market (and potentially a crazy one that goes up 100% or more), or if we fail to do this we could have an extended bear market (even 1-2 years). Of course this is all sentiment based. The fundamentals seem decent - though not stellar.
Oh, Bitfinex redeemed another 4.6% of tokens. Looks good. Maybe that's the reason BFX is $0.8 already. The more they redeem, the closer we get to parity as risks decrease.
"There are now 28,784,623 BFX tokens outstanding."
"There are now 28,784,623 BFX tokens outstanding."
BTC at 1010. Flirting with new highs. I'm suspicious that this could be a "false breakout" and that we're headed lower. Of course the news that the UAE isn't banning bitcoin is very bullish (kidding).
BFX tokens at 75 cents wow. Also RRT at 14 cents. Looks like some people think they'll get the coins back. BTC at $950. Could be in for some political instability in the US as Trump already starts off his presidency with one of the lowest approval ratings in recent times.
BFX tokens at 67 cents (and a ATH of 69 cents). Any news? The 2.0% reimbursement was 8 days ago. I should have held.
It's a low volume market, so the move could always be random.
It's a low volume market, so the move could always be random.
Another 2% BFX token redemption. If they reimburse 1.5%/month and the tokens are 55 cents that is a decent return rate (around 13.5% APR). It's kind of like compound interest working in the wrong direction.
(1-0.015)^12 = 0.834
So if you buy tokens at 55 cents, if they reimburse 1.5%/month, you'll have 83.4% left at the end of the year. So they will have reimbursed 16.6% of the tokens. This will give you a return of (45 cents * 0.166) / 55 cents = 13.5%
On the other hand if the percent of token reimbursement increases each month (which makes sense as they should be able to redeem the same absolute number of tokens) you would have more like a 18% redemption - and get a return of (45 cents * 0.18) / 55 cents = 14.7%
On a more optimist view, they might do 2%/month - for a return of (45 cents * 0.24)/55 cents = 19.6%
By contrast if you lend USD swap at 0.07% for 350 days, you'll make around 23.1% (after fees). Of course the swap rate could plummet to 0.02-0.03%/day for months and you could get as low as 8-10% return.
Both returns are probably heavily correlated. If BTC goes into a bear market, both USD swap rates and Bitfinex's ability to reimburse BFX tokens will fall.
(1-0.015)^12 = 0.834
So if you buy tokens at 55 cents, if they reimburse 1.5%/month, you'll have 83.4% left at the end of the year. So they will have reimbursed 16.6% of the tokens. This will give you a return of (45 cents * 0.166) / 55 cents = 13.5%
On the other hand if the percent of token reimbursement increases each month (which makes sense as they should be able to redeem the same absolute number of tokens) you would have more like a 18% redemption - and get a return of (45 cents * 0.18) / 55 cents = 14.7%
On a more optimist view, they might do 2%/month - for a return of (45 cents * 0.24)/55 cents = 19.6%
By contrast if you lend USD swap at 0.07% for 350 days, you'll make around 23.1% (after fees). Of course the swap rate could plummet to 0.02-0.03%/day for months and you could get as low as 8-10% return.
Both returns are probably heavily correlated. If BTC goes into a bear market, both USD swap rates and Bitfinex's ability to reimburse BFX tokens will fall.
Oops, 2014!
And how about that $160 drop today? So much for "stability".
And how about that $160 drop today? So much for "stability".
In January 2013, we had four weeks of relative stability around $800. And then in Feb 2013 BTC plunged to $400.
I think you mean 2014, not 2013. In Feb 2013 reaching 400$ was a permabull's dream.
In January 2013, we had four weeks of relative stability around $800. And then in Feb 2013 BTC plunged to $400.
USD swap rates on BFX are going up. Possibly more due to the USD swaps not automatically renewing (long-standing bug that appears to be worse now) than due to demand. For instance, earlier today we had $31 million in swaps and now we only have $25 million. Support says they are working on a rewrite. The auto-renew has been buggy for the past two years.
BTC at $917. Possibly a good time to sell some if you are in this for the short term (eg 1 year).
BTC at $917. Possibly a good time to sell some if you are in this for the short term (eg 1 year).
885 Bitfinex. Now the bull market is really over. The question is how big will the retrace down be? We could go down to 600, 400, or even 200 (less likely). I'm guessing the retrace will be slow and it will be harder to see the general direction. I'm thinking about the 2014-2015 bear market which had several places where it was very bullish or at least looked like the price would stabilize.
Now that's a big crash. Bitfinex went to 1166 (within $9 of ATH), and then crashed to 851. Currently recovered to 965.
Also China markets crashed and the $100-$120 premium has reversed and currently Bitstamp and Bitfinex have a $10-$35 premium over China!
I think the bull market is over. We don't even have SegWit and the ETF was delayed (again?).
If you zoom out, you could make the case that the entire rise from 160 to 1166 is just the first Elliott Wave - but I don't think it fits that model, and I think speculators with short time frames may have more influence over the price than long-term holders. Margin-trading especially gives them more leverage.
Also China markets crashed and the $100-$120 premium has reversed and currently Bitstamp and Bitfinex have a $10-$35 premium over China!
I think the bull market is over. We don't even have SegWit and the ETF was delayed (again?).
If you zoom out, you could make the case that the entire rise from 160 to 1166 is just the first Elliott Wave - but I don't think it fits that model, and I think speculators with short time frames may have more influence over the price than long-term holders. Margin-trading especially gives them more leverage.
China has surpassed ATH by 9%. BFX still $25 short ($1150 currently).
The greater the rate of increase, the closer we are to the top.
So we bounced off $1100 and 8000 Yuan. It is likely that the bubbles/bull markets will have a slower rate of increase as the price increases (as a 10% increase requires more funds at $1000 than at $100). However, that doesn't explain why things are so much slower than the Fall of 2013 bubble. The difference might be partially explained by market maturity (price discovery?) and diversification in exchanges and actors. And possibly the 2013 bubble was due to manipulation from MtGox (will we ever learn the truth?).
So we bounced off $1100 and 8000 Yuan. It is likely that the bubbles/bull markets will have a slower rate of increase as the price increases (as a 10% increase requires more funds at $1000 than at $100). However, that doesn't explain why things are so much slower than the Fall of 2013 bubble. The difference might be partially explained by market maturity (price discovery?) and diversification in exchanges and actors. And possibly the 2013 bubble was due to manipulation from MtGox (will we ever learn the truth?).
$1000 (or $1005 on BFX). It's a good example of Bitcoin following a trend or meme ($1000 for the New Year's), rather than fundamentals. The fundamentals are good, but not that much greater than over the past year. I'm very concerned about the block size limiting transactions and likely future developer drama.
I sold all my BFX tokens at around 52.5 cents. If I can get 10-20% APR lending out USD swap on bitfinex, I might get paid back faster than BFX is reimbursing the tokens. Also I did it mostly for the capital loss (taxes). Though I wish I could have sold at 55-60 cents.
Meanwhile - Bitcoins at $970!
The $1000 USD barrier is around the same place (converted) as 7000 Yuan. So we might bounce off that for a day or two. Or people might not care.
Is anyone else having problems with timeouts with websockets at Bitfinex? I fixed it by logging out and then back in.
Meanwhile - Bitcoins at $970!
The $1000 USD barrier is around the same place (converted) as 7000 Yuan. So we might bounce off that for a day or two. Or people might not care.
Is anyone else having problems with timeouts with websockets at Bitfinex? I fixed it by logging out and then back in.
939 (at BFX). I think we might be in a push to $1000 for the new year's =)
BFX tokens are only at 51 cents. I wonder if people are selling them to realize the capital loss from the Bitfinex hack (and use that to offset capital gains for tax purposes). I'm considering doing this (note: this isn't professional tax advice).
The low BFX USD swap rate (0.07%/day) and low amount of outstanding swaps are indicators that this isn't in full bubble mode - and also that there is more money available to fuel a bubble if speculators wanted to take more margin long positions.
BFX tokens are only at 51 cents. I wonder if people are selling them to realize the capital loss from the Bitfinex hack (and use that to offset capital gains for tax purposes). I'm considering doing this (note: this isn't professional tax advice).
The low BFX USD swap rate (0.07%/day) and low amount of outstanding swaps are indicators that this isn't in full bubble mode - and also that there is more money available to fuel a bubble if speculators wanted to take more margin long positions.
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