Any updated views from you on BTC / ETH?
Are we in crypto winter or is this is start of a second run to ATH soon?
Thanks.
Topic: nrd525 Market Tracker - page 2. (Read 83024 times)
I gave up on trying to buy bitcoin at 20k-25k. Oh well, the good news is that it's going up!
I lost $150 on yield farming at Dinoswap, as I managed to buy the top. I think there is some money to be made early on in yield farming in general, especially if there is a rewards program for liquidity providers (and you can dump the tokens ASAP). But in general, I've got better ways to make money and also am busy trying to get the 2020 census data properly mapped. And in general it seems like yield farming is based on complex schemes to create tokens that reward the creator(s)/developer(s and early users. But as the actual use case for most yield farms is minor, and the fundamental returns for liquidity providing are closer to 10% APR (I'm guessing about how much impermanent loss you'd have in say a USDC/BTC pool) - you generally cannot earn more than this rate, without being involved in some kind of weird scheme that is likely to collapse.
There isn't a use case for having more than 3-10 uniswaps. And they should compete with each other and drive the fees down to near zero (just like exchanges, though in practice we've seen some resistance from this on the exchanges and they continue to make super profits).
I lost $150 on yield farming at Dinoswap, as I managed to buy the top. I think there is some money to be made early on in yield farming in general, especially if there is a rewards program for liquidity providers (and you can dump the tokens ASAP). But in general, I've got better ways to make money and also am busy trying to get the 2020 census data properly mapped. And in general it seems like yield farming is based on complex schemes to create tokens that reward the creator(s)/developer(s and early users. But as the actual use case for most yield farms is minor, and the fundamental returns for liquidity providing are closer to 10% APR (I'm guessing about how much impermanent loss you'd have in say a USDC/BTC pool) - you generally cannot earn more than this rate, without being involved in some kind of weird scheme that is likely to collapse.
There isn't a use case for having more than 3-10 uniswaps. And they should compete with each other and drive the fees down to near zero (just like exchanges, though in practice we've seen some resistance from this on the exchanges and they continue to make super profits).
Bought 1 ETH at $3080. I might diversify into ETH as it's becoming very well established and used.
Delta variant is bad and probably going to hit the US hard. I'm hoping the US federal government steps up with huge economic incentives (like $500/dose) to get everyone vaccinated.
The propaganda about bitcoin being "green" and using a lot of renewable energy is grossly exaggerated. It's bad for the environment, which is true of most human activities. The truth is somewhere in the middle -- bitcoin mining is bad, but so is gold mining and methane from cows. We need a $200+/ton carbon (and methane equivalent) tax.
https://www.coindesk.com/why-chinas-ban-on-crypto-mining-is-more-serious-than-before
The propaganda about bitcoin being "green" and using a lot of renewable energy is grossly exaggerated. It's bad for the environment, which is true of most human activities. The truth is somewhere in the middle -- bitcoin mining is bad, but so is gold mining and methane from cows. We need a $200+/ton carbon (and methane equivalent) tax.
https://www.coindesk.com/why-chinas-ban-on-crypto-mining-is-more-serious-than-before
Would be interesting how its implemented because of the variance in Bitcoin value. Will be interesting to see the problems and solutions encountered in a normal population especially physical goods. To pay small amounts and pay immediately its not a massive deal so long as the fees to transact are similar to cash which is possible because this is an expense for business normally that isnt always popular; I'd probably resort to a tab or account solution where you transact in set amounts and pay out of that running credit.
The bigger problem is the whole system of payment for order, business to business where an invoice is given and time taken to pay off that bill, days weeks even and the price altering alot during that time could be upsetting and costly possibly. What would have to happen is a fair amount of hedging which is not abnormal for some but a small business doesn't normally engage with forex hedging costs and operations, if its conveniently done and efficient its not a problem .
Price is upto a monthly average now which helps put it back at the top of range where as it had fallen to the bottom quite recently. Possibly its broken some down trend or is challenging such inertia well now.
The bigger problem is the whole system of payment for order, business to business where an invoice is given and time taken to pay off that bill, days weeks even and the price altering alot during that time could be upsetting and costly possibly. What would have to happen is a fair amount of hedging which is not abnormal for some but a small business doesn't normally engage with forex hedging costs and operations, if its conveniently done and efficient its not a problem .
Price is upto a monthly average now which helps put it back at the top of range where as it had fallen to the bottom quite recently. Possibly its broken some down trend or is challenging such inertia well now.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/nation-world/el-salvador-bitcoin-legal-tender/507-8e0d51d7-57c2-467a-ab6c-d8deda101c8d
“Every restaurant, every barber shop, every bank....everything can be paid in U.S. dollars or Bitcoin and nobody can refuse payment,” Bukele said in an hour-long social media hangout with thousands of U.S.-based Bitcoiners as the bill was being debated Tuesday night in El Salvador’s congress.
I highly doubt this is going to work. Maybe this is like my local government, where they pass laws that they have only the weakest plans of enforcing? I think the goal is to get publicity and attract Bitcoin businesses and rich people to the country. So they are pretending you will be able to spend your bitcoins on services. But it's a lie. The Lightning Network is only barely being used. Doing main on-chain transactions would be crazy expensive.
The only way this would work is if there was a centralized system where you could convert your fiat into bitcoins, give it to the merchant, and then they'd convert back to fiat within say 1 minute so there wouldn't be any exchange rate risk. It'd be centralized and fiat based and the bitcoins would just be for show.
If the government decides to take on the risk of the volatility, they are setting themselves up for a very risky bet on bitcoin that could cost them billions of dollars.
“Every restaurant, every barber shop, every bank....everything can be paid in U.S. dollars or Bitcoin and nobody can refuse payment,” Bukele said in an hour-long social media hangout with thousands of U.S.-based Bitcoiners as the bill was being debated Tuesday night in El Salvador’s congress.
I highly doubt this is going to work. Maybe this is like my local government, where they pass laws that they have only the weakest plans of enforcing? I think the goal is to get publicity and attract Bitcoin businesses and rich people to the country. So they are pretending you will be able to spend your bitcoins on services. But it's a lie. The Lightning Network is only barely being used. Doing main on-chain transactions would be crazy expensive.
The only way this would work is if there was a centralized system where you could convert your fiat into bitcoins, give it to the merchant, and then they'd convert back to fiat within say 1 minute so there wouldn't be any exchange rate risk. It'd be centralized and fiat based and the bitcoins would just be for show.
If the government decides to take on the risk of the volatility, they are setting themselves up for a very risky bet on bitcoin that could cost them billions of dollars.
Legal tender also means you'd be OBLIGED to use it for small transactions which would be a complete nightmare.
I'm not sure that will be the case depending on exactly how they legislate it. Generally, it means you'll be forced to accept it to settle debt. Assuming they also keep the legal tender status for the US Dollar then everyone can still choose to use that.
Reference: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/legal-tender.asp
Quote
Legal tender is anything recognized by law as a means to settle a public or private debt or meet a financial obligation, including tax payments, contracts, and legal fines or damages.
Quote
In general, legal tender can take two fundamental forms. A government can simply ratify a market-determined commodity money, such as gold, to be legal tender and agree to accept tax payments and enforce contracts denominated in that commodity. Alternatively, a government can declare an adulterated commodity or valueless token to be legal tender, which then takes on the characteristics of a fiat currency.
Anyone who thinks a country (except for ones run by very crazy maniacs) will adopt bitcoin or any other unstable cryptocurrency as their legal tender in the next ten years is a very bad analyst.
Any journalist who uncritically writes such articles is a bad journalist (see Coindesk, El Salvador).
Legal tender also means you'd be OBLIGED to use it for small transactions which would be a complete nightmare.
Any journalist who uncritically writes such articles is a bad journalist (see Coindesk, El Salvador).
Legal tender also means you'd be OBLIGED to use it for small transactions which would be a complete nightmare.
Reviewing the Blockfi reddit, it seems like a lot of people have totally discounted the two main threats to stable coin (and also crypto) lending - a hair cut coming from a flash crash, and hackers.
I was also concerned to learn that Blockfi has accidentally sent out approximately 700 BTC in users as rewards. They sent out BTC instead of USD(c)!
Also bitcoin did a double bottom style bounce off of 31.2k (after 30k 4-5 days ago). We could even flash crash as low as 14k if this is a bear market.
I've placed modest sized bids from 20k-25k.
I was also concerned to learn that Blockfi has accidentally sent out approximately 700 BTC in users as rewards. They sent out BTC instead of USD(c)!
Also bitcoin did a double bottom style bounce off of 31.2k (after 30k 4-5 days ago). We could even flash crash as low as 14k if this is a bear market.
I've placed modest sized bids from 20k-25k.
So I wrote that before the Elon Musk tweet (about Bitcoin using too much energy and wanting to use something else).
Within the past day we crashed to 30,000 exactly on Coinbase and 29563 on Bitfinex. And ETH had a low of $1800. There is a strong bounce back with Bitcoin at 39000 and ETH at 2600.
I'm not sure if this the correction we needed (and we'll take a couple weeks to stabilize or something and then go back up) or if there is more downside to come. There is probably at least some downside for Doge (still at 36 cents) and some of the other altcoins.
Hmm, my new definition of altcoin is everything except Bitcoin and Ethereum (so I'm adding ETH as a main coin).
Within the past day we crashed to 30,000 exactly on Coinbase and 29563 on Bitfinex. And ETH had a low of $1800. There is a strong bounce back with Bitcoin at 39000 and ETH at 2600.
I'm not sure if this the correction we needed (and we'll take a couple weeks to stabilize or something and then go back up) or if there is more downside to come. There is probably at least some downside for Doge (still at 36 cents) and some of the other altcoins.
Hmm, my new definition of altcoin is everything except Bitcoin and Ethereum (so I'm adding ETH as a main coin).
A guess. Bitcoin has peaked for this bull market (2020-2021) and is going to bottom out in the 20k-30k range within the next 12 months. That said, I'm not selling. If true, it's going to be a slow grind to the bottom. We could also see another ATH for Bitcoin that would be only several percent (eg. 1%-9%) above the last one - which is a kind of resistance.
I have no idea what's going on with the altcoins, notably ETH is ATH at 4.3k - but it's probably going to peak soon.
Shiba Inu Token is hilarious. "Burning" half the tokens by giving them to Vitalik?!? Market cap of possibly $10 billion?!? It reminds me of the copycat (Bitcoin Cash fork style) coins: Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin Diamond.
If you want to bet on the Peru election - neo-fascist Keiko Fujimori (daughter of the dictator and former first lady) vs communist/socialist Pedro Castillo (a teacher who rides horses and farms, but also has party members with links to Shining Path) - I highly recommend getting on PredictIt (US only) or Polymarket (no limits!). It's a fascinating race.
I have no idea what's going on with the altcoins, notably ETH is ATH at 4.3k - but it's probably going to peak soon.
Shiba Inu Token is hilarious. "Burning" half the tokens by giving them to Vitalik?!? Market cap of possibly $10 billion?!? It reminds me of the copycat (Bitcoin Cash fork style) coins: Bitcoin Gold and Bitcoin Diamond.
If you want to bet on the Peru election - neo-fascist Keiko Fujimori (daughter of the dictator and former first lady) vs communist/socialist Pedro Castillo (a teacher who rides horses and farms, but also has party members with links to Shining Path) - I highly recommend getting on PredictIt (US only) or Polymarket (no limits!). It's a fascinating race.
Bitcoin 56k - so 12-13% off the ATH. ETH regularly getting new ATHs after bitcoin is reminiscent of the 2017/2018 bull market, except I think bitcoin had fallen by more when ETH was surging.
Dogecoin use case is 99.9% speculation and the price rise to 69 cents shows a high level of froth in the market.
We might be near the top of the cycle.
Dogecoin use case is 99.9% speculation and the price rise to 69 cents shows a high level of froth in the market.
We might be near the top of the cycle.
What is bitcoin acting like?
It seems to be acting more like a stock (albeit a very bullish stock) perhaps than how it acted during the 2011, 2013, or 2017 bubbles. Notably it appears to have slowed down. Whereas if you look at prior bubbles you'd expect it to make a run at 100k or 200k and then collapse by 80%-85%.
I haven't followed specific stocks as much so I'm not sure if the analogy is any good.
It seems to be acting more like a stock (albeit a very bullish stock) perhaps than how it acted during the 2011, 2013, or 2017 bubbles. Notably it appears to have slowed down. Whereas if you look at prior bubbles you'd expect it to make a run at 100k or 200k and then collapse by 80%-85%.
I haven't followed specific stocks as much so I'm not sure if the analogy is any good.
30-35 minutes to break 60k. The real resistance was 58k. 60.6k and going up!
The negative GBTC premium is baffling.
Interesting: if Blockfi (Celsius Network also perhaps?) is using their BTC that you lend them to do some kind of GBTC arbitrage, that would probably be a lot more secure than lending it out to people. Though if the premium goes negative, that means they might lower their BTC interest rates which would be sad.
NFTs are super weird and over-valued. Perhaps the strongest sign that we're in a huge bubble?
Interesting: if Blockfi (Celsius Network also perhaps?) is using their BTC that you lend them to do some kind of GBTC arbitrage, that would probably be a lot more secure than lending it out to people. Though if the premium goes negative, that means they might lower their BTC interest rates which would be sad.
NFTs are super weird and over-valued. Perhaps the strongest sign that we're in a huge bubble?
I have no idea whether selling is a good idea. I'm trying out not selling, but partially I am heavily influenced by wanting to wait until I can pay the long term capital gains tax rate (US rules). So I need to hold for one year, and my oldest coins are from September or October. I'm also trying to hold until the top, or more accurately after the top.
I'm guessing we'll have a blow-off top and those can sometimes be recognized after the fact (see my prediction in late Dec 2017 (or was it very early Jan 2018?) about a 3k bottom). I'm picturing something like 20%-30% rise in a single day, staying at the top for no more than 0.5-2 hours, then plumeting down to at least where it started or lower (probably all in 24 hours or much less). Ex. 60k -> 75k -> 55k (or maybe 50k-60k). Then you might have a false rally or two, but you are in solid bear territory and might be in for a 85% decline from the top to the bottom. So then selling around 55k could be a good idea. You miss out on that last 30% of the gains, but those are very hard to realize (as you risk selling too soon).
...
Unisocks - a tokenized pair of socks, limited edition, is trading for 70k (EDITED - I wrote 700k before!) which of course is one of several signs that things are getting extra-frothy.
Bitcoin 58.3k ath.
...
I'm surprised the bitcoin dominance is very steady considering all this volatility and rise and fall of altcoins. It's been in the 60%-70% range (mostly) for 18 months.
...
Canada did an ETF before the US! I'm surprised as Canada's government is more center-left than the US (more left so than any US government since at least FDR as Canada, like most democratic countries, have an entire political system that is shifted to the left of the US). Can Americans buy into Canadian ETFs? It sounds like YES, in which case, why aren't Americans going crazy?
https://www.thebalance.com/introduction-to-canadian-etfs-1979136#:~:text=Exchange%2Dtraded%20funds%20(%22ETFs,with%20the%20simplicity%20of%20equity.&text=These%20Canadian%20ETFs%20can%20be,trying%20to%20buy%20foreign%20stock.
I'm guessing we'll have a blow-off top and those can sometimes be recognized after the fact (see my prediction in late Dec 2017 (or was it very early Jan 2018?) about a 3k bottom). I'm picturing something like 20%-30% rise in a single day, staying at the top for no more than 0.5-2 hours, then plumeting down to at least where it started or lower (probably all in 24 hours or much less). Ex. 60k -> 75k -> 55k (or maybe 50k-60k). Then you might have a false rally or two, but you are in solid bear territory and might be in for a 85% decline from the top to the bottom. So then selling around 55k could be a good idea. You miss out on that last 30% of the gains, but those are very hard to realize (as you risk selling too soon).
...
Unisocks - a tokenized pair of socks, limited edition, is trading for 70k (EDITED - I wrote 700k before!) which of course is one of several signs that things are getting extra-frothy.
Bitcoin 58.3k ath.
...
I'm surprised the bitcoin dominance is very steady considering all this volatility and rise and fall of altcoins. It's been in the 60%-70% range (mostly) for 18 months.
...
Canada did an ETF before the US! I'm surprised as Canada's government is more center-left than the US (more left so than any US government since at least FDR as Canada, like most democratic countries, have an entire political system that is shifted to the left of the US). Can Americans buy into Canadian ETFs? It sounds like YES, in which case, why aren't Americans going crazy?
https://www.thebalance.com/introduction-to-canadian-etfs-1979136#:~:text=Exchange%2Dtraded%20funds%20(%22ETFs,with%20the%20simplicity%20of%20equity.&text=These%20Canadian%20ETFs%20can%20be,trying%20to%20buy%20foreign%20stock.
Wow, you like crypto fortune teller 
I see many statements of your thread come true, you have so good knowledge to read the market situation. Do you think when the best time to sell Bitcoin and altcoins before fall like in 2017?
I see many statements of your thread come true, you have so good knowledge to read the market situation. Do you think when the best time to sell Bitcoin and altcoins before fall like in 2017?
2.5 hours of resistance to break 55k. Much wow.
When Bitcoin hangs out at 47k for a couple days after hitting a new ATH, it's bullish.
Bitcoin search trends still below 2017.
Doge is also kind of bullish hanging out at near 7 cents.
I'm not sure what will pop this bubble as the stock market keeps going up too. Maybe some US regulation of stable coins? But I expect any regulation wouldn't be overly burdensome (and might even improve adoption by institutions in the long term).
I'd expect this to end in a blow off top. So up 25-35% in a single day, and then down 30% in the next. We haven't come close to seeing anything like that. The dump from 42k to 30k was several times too slow.
So I'm thinking 65k-190k... Though I'm not buying in again (probably) =)
Bitcoin search trends still below 2017.
Doge is also kind of bullish hanging out at near 7 cents.
I'm not sure what will pop this bubble as the stock market keeps going up too. Maybe some US regulation of stable coins? But I expect any regulation wouldn't be overly burdensome (and might even improve adoption by institutions in the long term).
I'd expect this to end in a blow off top. So up 25-35% in a single day, and then down 30% in the next. We haven't come close to seeing anything like that. The dump from 42k to 30k was several times too slow.
So I'm thinking 65k-190k... Though I'm not buying in again (probably) =)
Doge fell to 2.3 cents, but recovered to 8.7 and is holding at 8 cents as Elon Musk, Snoop Doge, and other celebrities get behind it. It now has a triple top at 8.6-8.7.
Tesla announces they bought $1.5 billion of bitcoin!!! Was Musk just trying to distract everyone? Or was he just being silly? I'm thinking the latter. Bitcoin new ATH $44,777 on BFX (more repeating digits - remember when I guessed that 44,444 would be resistance).
I'm very surprised that Doge is holding its level. I guess there is unlimited pump potential on social media. If Musk were to buy just $100 of Doge, it'd probably pump to 10 cents.
US stock market at new high too.
Are there any legitimate/reviewed covid 19 vaccines on the dark web (or even just the regular web, sold for crypto)? I'm curious as I know the vaccines are cheap to make (often $10/dose). Though I wouldn't trust it unless there were a TON of reviews (and you'd have to trust the review system...). Also transportation is a big deal...
Interestingly, I think the crypto boom market is increasing the time cost value of money which is making Safe Bets on Biden being president on March 1, and Trump not being president on March 31 at Polymarket pay more than they otherwise would (4% and 6% before fees, 2% and 4% after fees). By contrast, the returns on Safe Bets on PredictIt aren't as great (closer to 1%/month).
If you live in CA, please sign the petition to recall Newsom! I've got a bet on it getting enough signatures =)
Tesla announces they bought $1.5 billion of bitcoin!!! Was Musk just trying to distract everyone? Or was he just being silly? I'm thinking the latter. Bitcoin new ATH $44,777 on BFX (more repeating digits - remember when I guessed that 44,444 would be resistance).
I'm very surprised that Doge is holding its level. I guess there is unlimited pump potential on social media. If Musk were to buy just $100 of Doge, it'd probably pump to 10 cents.
US stock market at new high too.
Are there any legitimate/reviewed covid 19 vaccines on the dark web (or even just the regular web, sold for crypto)? I'm curious as I know the vaccines are cheap to make (often $10/dose). Though I wouldn't trust it unless there were a TON of reviews (and you'd have to trust the review system...). Also transportation is a big deal...
Interestingly, I think the crypto boom market is increasing the time cost value of money which is making Safe Bets on Biden being president on March 1, and Trump not being president on March 31 at Polymarket pay more than they otherwise would (4% and 6% before fees, 2% and 4% after fees). By contrast, the returns on Safe Bets on PredictIt aren't as great (closer to 1%/month).
If you live in CA, please sign the petition to recall Newsom! I've got a bet on it getting enough signatures =)
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