Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 6.

buwaytress

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Thanks KTChampions for your faith and loyalty, but I don't mind losing this season, to prove that all systems fail eventually Wink

But tomorrow I would like to put a bit of faith in Palace to beat United in an otherwise meaningless game in the EFL Cup. I'd have gone Brighton but odds are so poor haha.

100 units on Crystal Palace to WIN vs United @5.73. Other odds: 4.90
Units advantage: +83
Bet ID: 6511a335970aa4000154df3c

Running advantage after 10 bets: +803 (+83)
All-time cumulative: +90,853
Running units after 9 bets (0W|9L): -900 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 23, 2023, 07:19:47 AM

No wins yet here, very sad. I have, of course, had sweet hits this early season but none featured here as I didn't feel they were that great value but City at home is always a great opportunity if you consider how hard it gets for them at times.

I'll share exact odds as am out and couldn't login book. But at Sportsbet it was roughly 19/1 IIRC with a boost.

100 units at Sportsbet on Forest to fight the impossible and WIN vs City.

Update stats later today.

If City lose today it will make me very happy (I hate them Cheesy

). But if I'm not mistaken, Haaland should score a few goals today - he had a certain break in this matter, usually it ends with a double or a hattrick.
It's really a shame that there are no wins yet, but with average odds of 10, the streak without a win could easily (probably 50%) reach 15 games. So we wait

buwaytress

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No wins yet here, very sad. I have, of course, had sweet hits this early season but none featured here as I didn't feel they were that great value but City at home is always a great opportunity if you consider how hard it gets for them at times.

I'll share exact odds as am out and couldn't login book. But at Sportsbet it was roughly 19/1 IIRC with a boost.

100 units at Sportsbet on Forest to fight the impossible and WIN vs City.

Update stats later today.

buwaytress

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I came home late but the match is still 0-0, you bet now you get OK odds heh heh. But here's my outlier of the day. A decent Azerbaijan against a weakened Belgium side, I think the odds are underestimating the home side.

100 units at Sportsbet on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Belgium @16.95. Odds then: 16.00
Units advantage: +95
Bet ID: 64fb67bf4969d00001691c03

Running advantage after 8 bets: +720 (+95)
All-time cumulative: +90,770
Running units after 7 bets (0W|7L): -700 (-100)

buwaytress

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Right, so that didn't work out, but I'm reassured that I'm picking the right games for potential upsets even though BVB came away with the draw.

As intended, Gladbach is my next pick. They do really well h2h and I know Kane is there now to prevent another humiliation but I feel we can back psychology today.

100 units at Sportsbet on Gladbach to WIN vs Bayern @10.46. Other odds: 9.60
Bet ID: 64f34fcf4969d0000173b93e
Units advantage: +86

Running advantage after 7 bets: +625 (+86)
All-time cumulative: +90,675
Running units after 6 bets (0W|6L): -600 (-100)

buwaytress

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Why didn't I listen to my own wisdom and just go for an Ajax upset last night?

Another loss, but this is normal. Easiest pick of the day is a BVB home loss. They haven't looked convincing but nooks are insistent on a big win, I like the odds.

100 units at Sportsbet on Heidenheim to WIN vs Dortmund @10.90. Other odds: 10.00
Units advantage: +90

Running advantage after 6 bets: +539 (+90)
All-time cumulative: +90,589
Running units after 5 bets (0W|5L): -500 (-100)

Quote from: KTChampions on August 31, 2023, 05:45:22 PM

United sucks (and even though I'm a fan of them, I wanted Forest to win so that TH would get another flick on his impudent nose). Maybe your plan against Chelsea is good, but it seems to me that the idea with United is not very good - the bookmakers already see the real strength of this team and the odds for their games are already fair.

Heh, that's a weird thing to say for a fan but I said the same when Roy Hodgson was in charge of Liverpool so I get it. You might be right, but I'll sit and see. All I know is City odds have adjusted hugely over the past 2 seasons. Used to see 20/1 easily and now barely 14/1 against Fulham! So I need to dig better, but the days of big big wins against the champs look dried up.

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on August 31, 2023, 10:12:05 AM

Forest led by 2 goals inside the first four minutes but gave it all up. That's how it goes, but I'd be looking for value bets all season against them and Chelsea.
~

United sucks (and even though I'm a fan of them, I wanted Forest to win so that TH would get another flick on his impudent nose). Maybe your plan against Chelsea is good, but it seems to me that the idea with United is not very good - the bookmakers already see the real strength of this team and the odds for their games are already fair.

buwaytress

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Forest led by 2 goals inside the first four minutes but gave it all up. That's how it goes, but I'd be looking for value bets all season against them and Chelsea.

Took a nice win in Europe with Royal Antwerp at over 5/1 (and accas with Liverpool's next match) but couldn't find time to post that.

Instead we dip into Conference football where Fiorentina host Rapid Wien. Away team expects to lose but I think the odds are skewed bdly so presents great value.

100 units at Sportsbet on Rapid Wien to WIN vs Fiorentina @10.90. Other odds 10.20
Units advantage: +70

Running advantage after 5 bets: +429 (+70)
All-time cumulative: +90,499
Running units after 4 bets (0W|4L): -400 (-100)

buwaytress

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^ Yes, that was Sportsbet on Boost. Fairlay recently made their minimum bet 1mbts. It's not such a big deal normally but it's still currently above my base bet of roughly $5-10 -- given that I bet these on huge odds, and the idea was always for this thread to be for casual betting. I will use them rarely now, but for bigger bets.

Today, I take the easiest upset on paper -- Forest against a low-energy United.

100 units at Sportsbet on Forest to WIN vs Man Utd @8.90. Other odds: 8.40
Units advantage: 50

Running advantage after 4 bets: +359 (+50)
All-time cumulative: +90,429
Running units after 3 bets (0W|3L): -300 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on August 19, 2023, 07:58:36 AM

Yeah, it was bound for a win until new guy steps in and did the business, penalties anyway wouldn't have given good odds so we both failed on that game, KTChampions.

EPL presents a couple more opportunities. But we settle on one -- Newcastle, if they play like they did, will beat City, if City played like they did in previous matches.

100 units at Sportsbet on Newcastle to WIN vs City @6.39. Other odds: 4.90
Units advantage: +149
Bet ID: 64da726b4969d0000187f6cc

Running advantage after 3 bets: +309 (+149)
All-time cumulative: +90,379
Running units after 2 bets (0W|2L): -200 (-100)

It was all about the Sevilla striker - he missed a few chances (almost two one-on-one outings). I'm sure City couldn't equalize if it went 0-2.
By the way, I'm not happy with the format changes - the abolition of extra time reduces the status of the title.
Where did you get such profitable odds? Is that Fairlay? Judging by bet ID it's sportsbet ) Superboost?

buwaytress

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Yeah, it was bound for a win until new guy steps in and did the business, penalties anyway wouldn't have given good odds so we both failed on that game, KTChampions.

EPL presents a couple more opportunities. But we settle on one -- Newcastle, if they play like they did, will beat City, if City played like they did in previous matches.

100 units at Sportsbet on Newcastle to WIN vs City @6.39. Other odds: 4.90
Units advantage: +149
Bet ID: 64da726b4969d0000187f6cc

Running advantage after 3 bets: +309 (+149)
All-time cumulative: +90,379
Running units after 2 bets (0W|2L): -200 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on August 16, 2023, 11:13:41 AM

Thank you, KTChampions!

I do take pride in making picks that win, but possibly take even more pride in picks that almost win, and in games where the severe underdog outplayed and still lost. Wolves was absolutely the kind of game you love to bet on, as they looked like they would win 90% of the game. Most shots against United by any team since 2014, but Wolves need to fix their finishing. Jimenez was their star until his head injury... they need to discover how to turn attack into goals -- Onana saved United multiple times, though!

We turn to my favourite, City, to go down to Sevilla, why not?

100 units on Sevilla to WIN vs City @7.90. Other odds: 7.30
Units advantage: 60

Running advantage after 2 bets: +160 (+60)
All-time cumulative: +90,230
Running units after 1 bet (0W|1L): -100 (-100)

With KDB out for a few months, any result in City's game won't surprise me. He is the core of the team so now it will be quite interesting to see how the bookies will evaluate the prospects of City if Newcastle beat them (why not, they are in great shape). A Sevilla win is also a possibility, although I must admit I included in my multibet the outcome of the game in the form of City winning (odds 1.3).

buwaytress

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Thank you, KTChampions!

I do take pride in making picks that win, but possibly take even more pride in picks that almost win, and in games where the severe underdog outplayed and still lost. Wolves was absolutely the kind of game you love to bet on, as they looked like they would win 90% of the game. Most shots against United by any team since 2014, but Wolves need to fix their finishing. Jimenez was their star until his head injury... they need to discover how to turn attack into goals -- Onana saved United multiple times, though!

We turn to my favourite, City, to go down to Sevilla, why not?

100 units on Sevilla to WIN vs City @7.90. Other odds: 7.30
Units advantage: 60

Running advantage after 2 bets: +160 (+60)
All-time cumulative: +90,230
Running units after 1 bet (0W|1L): -100 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on August 14, 2023, 02:25:58 PM

A belated start to the new season, and if you've been following European cup competitions, the underdogs have been having the time of their lives, plenty of 10/1+ odds booked.

Not so much in regular league duties in Spain and England, but the final game of matchday 1 in the Premier League is the first bet of the season. I'll edit the previous post properly with calculations and we start the bankroll fresh today, taking only total unit advantage tallies forward.

Wolves are rudderless but United could have a tricky start under a lot of pressure, so I feel the odds are lopsided.

100 units at Sportsbet on Wolves to WIN vs Man Utd @10.90. Other odds: 9.90
Units advantage: 100
Bet ID: 64d7f4044969d000014f6804

Running advantage after 1 bet:+100
All-time cumulative: +90,170

Welcome back!
I can't say (despite the tough game and the penalty that the referee didn't award) that the Wolves were close to victory. I don't want to upset you, but for now I think that bets against Liverpool will be profitable again this season (as well as against United). What do you think?
So far, of all the teams, only Newcastle impressed me (City seems to have not become weaker, but this is already so tired that it does not cause emotions).

buwaytress

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A belated start to the new season, and if you've been following European cup competitions, the underdogs have been having the time of their lives, plenty of 10/1+ odds booked.

Not so much in regular league duties in Spain and England, but the final game of matchday 1 in the Premier League is the first bet of the season. I'll edit the previous post properly with calculations and we start the bankroll fresh today, taking only total unit advantage tallies forward.

Wolves are rudderless but United could have a tricky start under a lot of pressure, so I feel the odds are lopsided.

100 units at Sportsbet on Wolves to WIN vs Man Utd @10.90. Other odds: 9.90
Units advantage: 100
Bet ID: 64d7f4044969d000014f6804

Running advantage after 1 bet:+100
All-time cumulative: +90,170

buwaytress

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Merit: 3408

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Excuse this post, I don't have my normal devices with me but I propose Burnley to Win the Prem League opener today. I don't actually have the ability to bet so can't make this post official.

See you all in a few days.

=========Edit

Final season tally 2022/23

Running advantage after 70 bets: +6992 (+79)
All-time cumulative: +90,070
Running units after 70 bets (8W|62L): +28

buwaytress

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Early bet for this weekend, it's going to be the final two bets of this season, and on the Champions League final, because what else?

I have an early outright on Inter at 8/1, so I already feel like I'm set there, but for the sake of seeing if we can end this season with a more respectable profit, let's do an all-or-nothing finish. Breaking even's not bad, too, right?

100 units each at Sportsbet and Fairlay:
Inter to lift the trophy @4.63. Other odds: 4.40
Inter to WIN vs City @7.16. Other odds: 6.60
Bet ID: 6475fb45fc4a0c0001c0937f

Running advantage after 70 bets: +6992 (+79)
All-time cumulative: +90,070
Running units after 68 bets (8W|60L): +228 (-100)

buwaytress

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Worst game ever, United, but who am I to talk, when they were in the final eh?

A bit of a pity I didn't post the other bet I had that did hit (PSG losing) yesterday but let's go for another champion going down, this time in Italy, in another game that doesn't matter.

Bottom team meets top.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sampdoria to WIN vs Napoli @29.60. Other odds: 25.00
Units advantage: 460

Running advantage after 68 bets: +6913 (+460)
All-time cumulative: +89,991
Running units after 67 bets (8W|59L): +328 (-100)

buwaytress

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What? Season is almost ending (typically I end with Champions League final) and we still have over 400 units to burn, so why not let's try spread it out a bit over the next 3 big finals coming up, right? That starts today with the FA Cup final.

A simple ML on United to come out on top against City (who plays their second choice keeper).

100 units at Fairlay on Man Utd to WIN vs Man City @5.89. Other odds: 5.45
Units advantage: 44

Running advantage after 67 bets: +6453 (+44)
All-time cumulative: +89,531
Running units after 66 bets (8W|58L): +428 (-100)

buwaytress

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Quote from: arallmuus on May 26, 2023, 04:00:30 PM

Quote from: buwaytress on May 26, 2023, 01:31:18 PM

Dortmund don't need any motivation to win this final game week

Just kinda wondering this but doesnt Dortmund actually need a whole lot of motivation to win the last game if they want to win the title? Well Main lost their last 4 games horribly but Bayern might snatch that from them if they lose their last game against Mainz so all the reason needed to be extra careful on their last game though

Anyway, I kinda like this so Im taking this bet as well. Small stake though, may the best be with us ( odds are kinda horrible in this site imo )

Yeah, you're right but that's sort of what I meant -- needing no motivation is a way of saying they need no more motivation, haha. It's the title on the line and (not that anyone's thinking it) but they could actually still lose or draw and take it, if Bayern fail to win so you could argue.

Odds are always tricky to find but yeah, Sportsbet's daily price boost is big when going for longshots. These days I find it's a two-horse fight for my bets between Fairlay (really good odds at times) and Sportsbet on the price boost.

Occasionally, Stake and FortuneJack have promos that make up for odds, giving bigger value (typically, cashback or some form of insurance) but these are less frequent recently, and have small bet limits.

In fact yesterday I realised I was very late on confirming my bet, odds went pretty badly down so I only ended up getting 7.82 (I've adjusted the numbers now). Rare mistake for me, I pounce on those but got distracted making this post...

The good news for us now is that odds are 64/10. So we caught great value in any case.

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 6. (Read 38849 times)