Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 7.

arallmuus

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 26, 2023, 01:31:18 PM

Dortmund don't need any motivation to win this final game week

Just kinda wondering this but doesnt Dortmund actually need a whole lot of motivation to win the last game if they want to win the title? Well Main lost their last 4 games horribly but Bayern might snatch that from them if they lose their last game against Mainz so all the reason needed to be extra careful on their last game though

Anyway, I kinda like this so Im taking this bet as well. Small stake though, may the best be with us ( odds are kinda horrible in this site imo )

buwaytress

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Dortmund don't need any motivation to win this final game week, but I wonder if Bayern could be troubled by pressure, allowing Koln to take advantage? I don't really have much else to look at (Real Madrid does look like value though) so this is my pick for tomorrow before blockbuster Sunday takes place.

My mission to end the season in a loss is going well haha.

100 units at Sportsbet on Cologne to WIN vs Bayern ~~@8.48. Other odds: 7.80~~
Edit odds @7.82. Current odds: 6.40 but we'll keep yesterday's actual.
Bet ID: 646f896bc51fdb0001c99899
Units advantage: 2

Running advantage after 66 bets: +6409 (+2)
All-time cumulative: +89,487
Running units after 65 bets (8W|57L): +528 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on May 24, 2023, 03:07:14 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on May 24, 2023, 10:22:17 AM

Barcelona wiped out my multi bet yesterday (didn't think they'd be that brazen to lose two games in a row) and I just went to check the thread - maybe you were lucky with it? But no. By the way, why didn't you bet on Valladolid yesterday? The coefficient was not too high, but the probability of winning was apparently significant.
Now I think that in the next round Barcelona will have to win against Mallorca and probably even with a -1 handicap. What do you think about it?

Yeah, I wonder why myself. It must have been lower than 6/1 though for my eyes to have skipped over the bet, and for a team like that (Valladolid), that's poor value, regardless of Barca's current (unproven) bad streak.

I'm still hurting over the near-hit of 11 May (Juventus equalising in Fergie time ruining that bet), I thought that would be the season-saving bet.

Handicap -1 is only 18/10... I'd go -1.5 for a big bet to get 24/10, but that's still not great value for me, judging from their problematic end of season. It's a friendly equivalent!

Hm... I don't use the Asian Handicap, so it's hard for me to judge value. I wanted to see what the odds would be for -2, but funny: there are quotes for -1, -3 and -4 but no -2 on sportsbets:
https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/soccer/spain/la-liga/fc-barcelona-v-rcd-mallorca-6468b505d2599d228717bb82

Is this a hint that the game will end in this way? 3-0 or 4-1? Roll Eyes

I'm intrigued, I hope I don't forget this and check the quotes later to see if the -2 outcome would be out of the selection options.

buwaytress

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Quote from: KTChampions on May 24, 2023, 10:22:17 AM

Barcelona wiped out my multi bet yesterday (didn't think they'd be that brazen to lose two games in a row) and I just went to check the thread - maybe you were lucky with it? But no. By the way, why didn't you bet on Valladolid yesterday? The coefficient was not too high, but the probability of winning was apparently significant.
Now I think that in the next round Barcelona will have to win against Mallorca and probably even with a -1 handicap. What do you think about it?

Yeah, I wonder why myself. It must have been lower than 6/1 though for my eyes to have skipped over the bet, and for a team like that (Valladolid), that's poor value, regardless of Barca's current (unproven) bad streak.

I'm still hurting over the near-hit of 11 May (Juventus equalising in Fergie time ruining that bet), I thought that would be the season-saving bet.

Handicap -1 is only 18/10... I'd go -1.5 for a big bet to get 24/10, but that's still not great value for me, judging from their problematic end of season. It's a friendly equivalent!

KTChampions

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Barcelona wiped out my multi bet yesterday (didn't think they'd be that brazen to lose two games in a row) and I just went to check the thread - maybe you were lucky with it? But no. By the way, why didn't you bet on Valladolid yesterday? The coefficient was not too high, but the probability of winning was apparently significant.
Now I think that in the next round Barcelona will have to win against Mallorca and probably even with a -1 handicap. What do you think about it?

buwaytress

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Didn't make my day, far from, so we continue spamming on Chelsea when odds are good, and I actually think the next game tomorrow provides that particular value.

But since I don't like simple bets, let's tie it with Liverpool's last game with Saints.

100 units at Sportsbet on Chelsea to WIN vs Man Utd and Liverpool to WIN vs [email protected]. Other odds: 7.38
Units advantage: 44
Bet ID: 646c7614c51fdb000192ff06

Running advantage after 65 bets: +6407 (+44)
All-time cumulative: +89,485
Running units after 64 bets (8W|56L): +628 (-200)

buwaytress

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Yikes, I really am pulling farther and farther away from the wins, huh?

The good news is we have Chelsea and Lampard today to try and nick some points that no longer matter from City. And we also have Southampton to try and salvage some honour on their final Premiership games.

The bad news is that after Arsenal lost, Chelsea's odds dropped -- while I actually secured 12/1, I was dumb enough to parlay it with a Liverpool win yesterday that didn't happen, so I'm posting good odds below but you're lucky if you find even 9/1 today.

100 units at Sportsbet on Chelsea to WIN vs City @10.54. Other odds: 8.8
Bet ID: 6461e0941e4b050001a11e5f

100 units at Sportsbet on Southampton to WIN vs Brighton @13.50. Other odds: 12.50
Bet ID: 645f9ab11e4b05000145a664

Units advantage: 274

Running advantage after 64 bets: +6363 (+274)
All-time cumulative: +89,441
Running units after 62 bets (8W|54L): +828 (-100)

buwaytress

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Have really done myself a disfavour by putting large bets on Real... and they let me down with a draw and a huge loss.

Doesn't matter. We still have plenty of time to whittle down my meagre profit. We'll try to end the season with either a decent bank, or a small loss (I'm not concerned about keeping the record of not ending a season in loss, should I though?)

Delicious bet against Milan today, sorry Sampdoria has no chance, but hey.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sampdoria to WIN vs Milan @25.20. Other odds: 23
Units advantage: 220

Running advantage after 62 bets: +6089 (+220)
All-time cumulative: +89,167
Running units after 61 bets (8W|53L): +928 (-300)

buwaytress

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That didn't happen properly, now did it? No matter. We keep coming close, and then get whacked by the Germans.

Real Madrid, they almost clinched it for me and today, at over 6/1, you have to say these are high-value odds. Probably brought on by Camavinga's absence, but there are capable deputies. I have a good feeling.

So let's again use our cushion here, why not?

300 units at Fairlay on Real Madrid to WIN vs Man City @6.27. Other odds: 5.80
Units advantage: 141

Running advantage after 61 bets: +5869 (+141)
All-time cumulative: +88,947
Running units after 60 bets (8W|52L): +1228 (-100)

buwaytress

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Man, what a shame. The harder tie was won against the grain, nice comeback from the Swiss, what a waste of a 9/1 win, Juventus had to score in the final minute (have to also mention it was time the ref granted beyond what was allocated).

But I'll throw the dice on Gladbach today, about to play in a few minutes. They're good against Bayern, not against BVB but you never know what Bayern's earlier win (6-0!) will do to Dortmund's desire today.

100 units at Fairlay on Gladbach to WIN vs BVB @11.43. Other odds:10.8
Units advantage: 63

Running advantage after 60 bets: +5728 (+63)
All-time cumulative: +88,806
Running units after 59 bets (8W|51L): +1328 (-100)

buwaytress

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Ah well, it wasn't to be. But let's take it a little over the top today, shall we?

I think Sevilla and Basel on their own have a say in winning tonight's first ties in Europa and Conference, the value is them being away. But instead of singles, I'm going to pair these as a short acca. Feel free to not follow Wink

100 units at Sportsbet on Sevilla and Basel to WIN @47.84. Other odds: 44.50
Bet ID: 645cd9971e4b0500018d9f1f
Units advantage: 334

Running advantage after 59 bets: +5665 (+334)
All-time cumulative: +88,743
Running units after 58 bets (8W|50L): +1428 (-300)

buwaytress

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It's Real Madrid time tonight, actually, and it just happens to be against City, so it's not that I'm counting on City to lose here, just counting on Real's magnificence on this particular stage. Benzema and Vini should be well rested, too, while Pep is going to fiddle around a bit, guaranteed.

So let's use up a bit of our profit cushion here, since it's almost season end:

300 units on Real Madrid to WIN vs City @3.50. Other odds: 3.32.
Units advantage: +54
Bet ID: 645a13961e4b0500012a09ea

Running advantage after 58 bets: +5331 (+54)
All-time cumulative: +88,409
Running units after 57 bets (8W|49L): +1728 (-200)

buwaytress

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Hot and heavy weekend of football, not the most exciting for most people but with some things still to play for, some games are interesting, namely Leeds to stave off relegation and Osasuna to take home something for this season.

It's a simple double underdog day for me tomorrow, both at Sportsbet, you'll get magnificent boosts. 100 units each:

Leeds to WIN vs City @16.95. Other odds: 16.20. Bet ID: 64516ac21e4b050001da28e6
Osasuna to WIN vs Real @10.90. Other odds: 10.15. Bet ID: 6452beed1e4b050001a313cd
Total units advantage: 150

Running advantage after 57 bets: +5275 (+150)
All-time cumulative: +88,355
Running units after 55 bets (8W|47L): +1928 (-100)

buwaytress

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It's that go-against City time again and it's pretty much just hoping for them to stumble just one more time for a big win. Fulham's also a good bet today but Liverpool are resurgent now. Time to bet against form?

100 units at Sportsbet on West Ham to WIN vs City @14.75 Other odds: 14.50
Units advantage: 25
Bet ID: 644fac501e4b05000179888f

Running advantage after 55 bets: +5125 (+25)
All-time cumulative: +88,205
Running units after 54 bets (8W|46L): +2028 (-100)

buwaytress

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Ah crap, forgot to post my bets here... Hertha's still 0-0 and odds live are actually better, so I don't mind posting that, but too bad about Saints, leading the game at Newcastle already, that was a solid 10/1.

Take it for 20/1++ but here's my bet:

100 units at Sportsbet on Hertha Berlin to WIN vs Bayern @20.25. Other odds: 20.40
Bet ID: 644502571e4b050001526c3f

Running advantage after 54 bets: +5100 (-20)
All-time cumulative: +88,180
Running units after 53 bets (8W|45L): +2128 (-100)

buwaytress

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Quote from: KTChampions on April 22, 2023, 04:42:32 PM

Oh. Friend, I'll probably stop visiting this thread for a while (I hope you invite me later) - it's very painful to watch how you are sooooo close to victory lately, but literally just a little bit is missing. Arsenal and the upcoming championship (very likely) of City ruined my mood today.
The only thing that pleased me was Dortmund (which, unexpectedly for me, used Bayern's mistake) and the situation that is developing now in the management of the club. Kahn and Salihamidzic must take full responsibility.

No one hurt more than me (except Saints fans I guess)... but this literally is the story of this thread, very low win percentage, and long stretches of sorrow, sometimes some really crazy wins in a row but generally quite demotivating when it comes to weeks like you've just seen. Big odds, and drawing, the funny thing is how of all the losses, Saints odds were the biggest but they probably deserved the win.

Mainz was a great bet to take, but then it was only 5/1 when I checked, and so, not nearly enough for me to add it (even knowing how crap Bayern has been).

BVB better not throw away this gift.

Feel free to return at a later time when you feel like throwing money on longshots heh. And thank you, always, I know it's a fairly quiet thread but it's nice to know it brings some entertainment to some of you here =D

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on April 21, 2023, 01:54:42 PM

^ It was more of a "value" proposition than anything else. Bayern haven't been playing at their best but I was hoping for a Tuchel masterpiece combined with a Pep tinkering. Neither happened!

Today's an easy bet for me. Yes, Saints are bottom of the league, and Arsenal right at the top, but I won't forget easily their massive win against City in the EFL cup. You just never can count out a team with pretty damned good players on their day...

100 units at Sportsbet on Saints to WIN vs Arsenal @18.60. Other odds: 16.00
Units advantage: 260
Bet ID: 643e45a91e4b050001aa366a

Running advantage after 53 bets: +5120 (+260)
All-time cumulative: +88,200
Running units after 52 bets (8W|44L): +2228 (-100)

Oh. Friend, I'll probably stop visiting this thread for a while (I hope you invite me later) - it's very painful to watch how you are sooooo close to victory lately, but literally just a little bit is missing. Arsenal and the upcoming championship (very likely) of City ruined my mood today.
The only thing that pleased me was Dortmund (which, unexpectedly for me, used Bayern's mistake) and the situation that is developing now in the management of the club. Kahn and Salihamidzic must take full responsibility.

buwaytress

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^ It was more of a "value" proposition than anything else. Bayern haven't been playing at their best but I was hoping for a Tuchel masterpiece combined with a Pep tinkering. Neither happened!

Today's an easy bet for me. Yes, Saints are bottom of the league, and Arsenal right at the top, but I won't forget easily their massive win against City in the EFL cup. You just never can count out a team with pretty damned good players on their day...

100 units at Sportsbet on Saints to WIN vs Arsenal @18.60. Other odds: 16.00
Units advantage: 260
Bet ID: 643e45a91e4b050001aa366a

Running advantage after 53 bets: +5120 (+260)
All-time cumulative: +88,200
Running units after 52 bets (8W|44L): +2228 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on April 19, 2023, 11:37:59 AM

No, I'm not trying to spam against City, but yes, I'm trying to spam against City haha.

It's a wasted bet but you never know Bayern, right? They don't deserve 3-0, and City could be a victim of tinkering so let's give it a go with a unique market. I couldn't find this market precisely elsewhere... so no odds advantage calculation but the regular odds is 15/1, I'm using a price boost.

100 units at Sportsbet on Bayern to qualify @16.40. Other odds: -

Running advantage after 52 bets: +4860 (-)
All-time cumulative: +87,940
Running units after 51 bets (8W|43L): +2328 (-100)

Eh... If Bayern had qualified it would have been the "finishing" of all the tasks for this season in the Champions League - even though I'm a Real Madrid fan I would be happy even with that the two bags didn't win the tournament again. But unfortunately it looks like a dream after the first match. However, until the game is over, you can always hope for the best.

buwaytress

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No, I'm not trying to spam against City, but yes, I'm trying to spam against City haha.

It's a wasted bet but you never know Bayern, right? They don't deserve 3-0, and City could be a victim of tinkering so let's give it a go with a unique market. I couldn't find this market precisely elsewhere... so no odds advantage calculation but the regular odds is 15/1, I'm using a price boost.

100 units at Sportsbet on Bayern to qualify @16.40. Other odds: -

Running advantage after 52 bets: +4860 (-)
All-time cumulative: +87,940
Running units after 51 bets (8W|43L): +2328 (-100)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 7. (Read 38849 times)