Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 8. (Read 38849 times)

^ Damn Bayern! Heh. 2 draws, it works well, we give it another go

Right, I almost, almost forgot about this game! 15 minutes to kick off but odds are still amazing. I don't think it gets better than this, and the Foxes rarely have gotten such juice but it is truly a sign of the times.

Yes, Leicester have been horrible. But yes, they have a new manager (heh) and you never discount those bounces. Also yes, they have fairly recently bested City (I won't forget so soon the opener of last season!).

100 units at Fairlay on Leicester City to WIN vs Man City @25.00. Other odds: 22.50
Units advantage: 250

Yes, United scored all 4 goals in the game, but in the end the score was 2-2 
Bayern are unpleasantly surprised - first it's a ridiculous dismissal of a coach in the middle of the season, then a rout from City and now they have more problems in the dressing room. It looks like degradation.
I can’t say that Sevilla or Hoffenheim today were close to victory, but it’s a pity that your bets were actually close but didn’t play. But your flair certainly works well!

Turns out you were right, but it didn't matter because the Maguire effect is something we all forgot about, for or against United. Probably annoyed me a bit more that Sevilla could actually have won it near the end, but let's be fair and say a point was the most they deserved.

I'm of course eyeing City this weekend but can we appreciate how badly Bayern appear to be wobbling? Sane/Mane drama... sad. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, are on a hot 3-game win streak...

100 units at Sportsbet on Hoffenheim to WIN vs Bayern @13.65. Other odds: 12.60
Units advantage: 105

I don't think Rashford means anything without Casemiro (who's playing today), so it's a very dangerous bet 
In general, I have a desire to bet on United, since Sevilla annoys me a little - the bookmakers rate it quite solidly, although it crawls along the bottom in La Liga. But United have a grueling schedule, so they can really unpleasantly surprise you at any given moment.

Pretty cool that I avoided betting on Champions League so far (for this thread anyway, heh), as favourites have generally smacked down.

But I cannot possibly ignore Sevilla, kings of Europa, can I? Rashford out injured is a blow, and he was honestly the only thing holding that team together. Only problem is Sevilla are at the lowest they've been for a while. So.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sevilla to WIN vs United @9.36. Other odds: 8.80
Units advantage: 56
Bet ID: 6437fd71edad45000164fc1a

Liverpool destroy betters throughout the season (51% points on average lol).

I hope the saints will please both you and me today - I am glad for any defeat of the City. The Saints have already won a home game against City in January (when they knocked them out of the League Cup), why shouldn't they do it again, especially since City are most likely already in the game with Bayern in mind? I think bet on Saints is value.

Man, Liverpool. They keep haunting me.

But I'm thinking we've got 2 brilliant games today, against both Manchester teams. City were awesome but Saints are a different beast and I feel like we're going to get something out of a rotation of Walcott/JWP... while United broke Brentford in the end but Everton are a sterner test I feel (Dyche is up for this).

So, 100 units each at Sportsbet:

Everton to WIN vs Man Utd @6.72. Other odds: 6.20
Southampton to WIN vs City @14.75. Other odds: 12.80
Bet ID: 642b447cedad45000165eec9

Units advantage: 52+195 = 247

So the odds boost has happened. Most likely because bookies will feel Chelsea will play an actually good formation without Potter in charge, but that works for me and I do think this is finally a good value bet.

Unfortunately, I can't wait for my price boost to recharge at Sportsbet.io but if you take it now you'll get 3.66.

I'll take the less attractive one available on Fairlay. 200 units?

200 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to WIN vs Chelsea @3.36. Other odds: 3.66
Units advantage: 60

^ Yeah, as poor as a lot of the English clubs have been this season, they have done pretty memorable games every now and then, and still probably deserve more time with their managers. But it's hard to really watch PSG and feel entertained. Since Emery, they've been dropping points and wins with every new coach, it's amazing.

Can't see anything really nice to put bets on yet, so we'll revisit this in a few days. Liverpool are about 3/1 tomorrow but I'll wait for odds to get juicier... otherwise I don't think it's value heh.

Will update units calculations then.

Congratulations on your good choice. Ironically, I made a little express from Roma and PSG and PSG ruined it, haha.
In fact, I expected that the trashy PSG having taken off from the Champions League would at least be busy stuffing statistics for their "stars" in the farmers' league, but they are not even capable of that.


I see no reason to blame Galtier. No one will let him make obvious rearrangements (for example, expel Messi), in fact, he has limited powers.

PSG is in shambles right now and it is just a matter of time before, Galtier gets sacked. Not that he deserves any better from what I have seen, he does not seem like coach for top team that needs to get respect from spoiled stars.

Don't get me wrong he did not have an easy job. PSG is team without any balance, best seen from his bench in game against Bayern. But you have that three mega stars at front and it is incredible how timid they look under Galtier.

You actually won this one. I read this post like 30 minutes before the game start and normally I wouldnt bat an eye on these type of high odds underdog bets or something but I kinda feel like taking this one after I read this then decided not to like on the last 10 minutes before the game start. Great job on spotting this one, pfft PSG actually ended up losing this is just hilarious 

You said what was on my mind man. We were set up and prepared for Haaland, we forgot that Alvarez actually plays as a "normal" guy. I'm hurting today still, but not enough to put Lyon up for our next upset?

100 units at Sportsbet on Lyon to WIN vs PSG @7.82. Other odds: 7.20
Units advantage: 62

I think Haaland helped a lot in today's Liverpool disaster - he was not on the field. Liverpool have learned to close him and in general when he is on the field it is clear where to expect threats from. His absence turned the tables and City dominated last year's style. Now I believe more and more that Haaland will go to Real Madrid, maybe even this summer.

I think a bet on Dortmund is a value bet, I hope it works today - it will refresh the championship and spur Bayern (whose main task in season is to knock out City).

Israel, haha.

Anyway, Premier League is back, and it's a game I can't afford to miss, so am actually otw home now on the road.

I completely forgot to put this bet down, Liverpool is away but City is as shaky, if not shakier, than Liverpool, and I know Pep doesn't have the best record against a side that has been known to bully them. This makes the odds high value for me, really! So let's double the bet size for this

If we do well, BVB is up next!

200 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to WIN vs City @5.96. Other odds: 5.2
Units advantage: 76


Wow, what a loss. Can't process it now, but why not add another double-unit bet on BVB?

200 units at Fairlay on BVB to WIN vs Bayern @5.99. Other odds: 6.20 (I saw this earlier, but too late to take it, I'll consider another bookie must have it).
Units advantage: -21

Horrible games, not a chance, and I almost breathed relief when Estonia relinquished their lead (as I didn't bet on them).

Israel's my only pick for today, again, odds look tempting but only as they play away. They have a bit of trouble back home so might be more motivated to win this one, no?

100 units at Fairlay on Israel to WIN vs Switzerland @8.31. Other odds: 8
Units advantage: 31

Ouch on Iceland, heh heh.

Good caveat to notice, KTChampions, and couldn't agree more. But always feel like I should still count on disruption to the norm. Hasn't worked out yet (too bad about Kazakhstan) but here's another couple more attempts:

100 units at Sportsbet on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Sweden @16.95. Other odds: 15.50
Bet ID: 6421b837edad450001d5c947

100 units at Fairlay on Bulgaria to WIN vs Hungary @11.19. Other odds: 10.90

Units advantage: 145+29 = 174

Kazakhstan won after all (I also didn't bet, eh).
I would like to know what were the quotes for the victory of Kazakhstan after the first half when Denmark was leading 2-0. Obviously they were at least 100 to 1.
Yes, I know about the strength of the Caucasian and Asian teams, but there is one caveat - I will never bet on their away games. From what I have seen, they play very weakly in away games, but at home their strength is about x2 of the average.

And thanks for the next explanation of your system - I already studied it, but it's good to refresh everything again (plus some changes are always possible).

That didn't go nearly as close as I imagined, but today I wonder if Iceland might be a bit of an overestimation

Liechtenstein isn't a team to tear up the manual but I feel they have it in them to win 1 in 10 games, not 30, against Iceland? Their only recent good result was a 1-1 draw against Armenia so I'm probably throwing money away but:

100 units at Fairlay on Liechtenstein to WIN vs Iceland @31.00. Other odds: 27.40
Units advantage: 360



I missed that one actually, I agree, that was a value bet... Kazakhstan was also 14/1 when they were behind in today's match vs Denmark at HT. Too bad I didn't take that opportunity up I tell you, these Asian/Caucascus teams aren't TOO bad...


Thank you, and I appreciate when you guys come in. I always intended to give this section of the forum a thread that gives trackable results on a particular strategy. Don't you hate that most tip threads cherry pick results, and don't even give an actual performance on bankroll? I do wish I had the energy to do this daily as I did before but still, to have 5 consecutive seasons of performance, chronological and on bankroll, it is enough of a sample to say this strat works for me

I used to just use oddschecker (but beware they use promo odds, which is only applicable to first bets, at low max wager), but I find that for crypto sportsbetting, it's enough to check Pinnacle odds, and then check on the main books -- at the moment, Sportsbet with the boost (which is where I took 27.40 odds on the bet above, boosted from 25/1), Fairlay is competitive on longshots and early markets, FortuneJack, Stake, Nitro are Pinnacle derived too, so aren't really useful to compare UNLESS you use promotions, which I make note off when I bet (FJ and Stake have seasonal cashback which give incredible value).

Obviously odds shift over time so I only publish odds at the time I post/bet. I find early markets are pretty awesome value, but that can change with sudden injuries or form over 2 or 3 weeks so... it is a gamble. But I also use historical odds. e.g. If team A has an early market (3/4 weeks away from actual match) and has lost 3-4 games in a row, books give them shit probability, but I love that as odds only get worse as they win games coming up to the market.

It's nice to see you coming back with your famous thread. I hope you will continue to make big profits  Did you take a "boost" from Sportsbet to get those odds?
Which odds comparator are you using btw because Odds Portal gives me 13.39 for Azerbaijan (but I guess it's the odds of the last minute before the game had started) https://www.oddsportal.com/football/europe/euro-2024/austria-azerbaijan-ANTUoJoi