Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 8.

buwaytress

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Hello! Bundesliga picks turned out to be really awful, far from even draws, but there you go, we ended with a flourish and hit the last one in Brasil, courtesy Santos. We now breathe for the first time this season in the green zone. Internationals are up next and I'm not really feeling good about any of them given the shyness of bookie markets right now, but I'll take a hit on an Asian team vs almighty Denmark in the upcoming EURO qualifiers, while waiting for other odds to rise.

100 units at Sportsbet on Kazakhstan to WIN vs Denmark @26.30. Other odds: 24. Units advantage: 230

Running advantage after 17 bets: +1457 (+230)
All-time cumulative: +91,407
Running units after 16 bets (2W|14L): +184 (+702)

buwaytress

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Well KTChampions at least United didn't let Brentford leapfrog them! Why Mbeumo decided to handle the ball for the feekick leading to the goal we'll never know but there you go, football.

Today, the pick of the day is Freiburg who are 19/1 to beat Bayern. The thing is, none of my bookies offer 1x2 (strange) so what I did instead is to spread bets on correct scores of 0:1, 0:2 and 1:2 at 40/1, 35/1, 75/1 respectively. I don't recommend anyone to follow, but that's my workaround this game.

So, 33 units at Sportsbet on each above outcomes, no odds comparison, on Freiburg to WIN vs Bayern @ correct scores 0:1,
0:2, or 1:2.
Bet IDs: 6521a5734149c60001595fcd, 6521a5674149c60001da56ac, 6521a55b4149c60001dad427
We count this as 1 bet.

Then, 100 units at Sportsbet on Santos to WIN vs Palmeiras @10.02. Other odds: 9.10. Units advantage: 92
Bet ID: 651fee5e4149c600012cabf7

Finally, 100 units at Sportsbet on Koln to WIN vs Leverkusen @9.58. Other odds: 9.20. Units advantage: 38
Bet ID: 65214fec4149c60001d2a232

Running advantage after 16 bets: +1227 (+130)
All-time cumulative: +91,177
Running units after 13 bets (1W|12L): -518 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on October 04, 2023, 05:32:04 AM

Finally, we have our first win. It wasn't pretty, but hugely damaging for United with Case,iro's sending off, and Galatasaray's enjoying their first European away win in ten years!
~

Congratulations! I'm still rooting against United (and will do so until Ten Hag is fired) but even in my wildest dreams I couldn't imagine United losing to Galatasaray at Old Trafford. With each game, United updates its historical anti-records and today I was surprised by the news where it was said that Ten Hag would not be sacked regardless of the results this season. Well... it’s unpleasant for me as a United fan, but there is a whole season to make profitable bets against this club.

buwaytress

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Finally, we have our first win. It wasn't pretty, but hugely damaging for United with Case,iro's sending off, and Galatasaray's enjoying their first European away win in ten years!

We return to Rome tomorrow as they host a first-timer, but I wonder if unknown Swiss factor can be a surprise? They lost narrowly to Rangers with 10 men and were tough in Genk -- amazing away performances and I feel like Roma is not better than Rangers/Genk now.

100 units at Sportsbet on Serviette to WIN vs Roma @20.80. Other odds: 19
Units advantage: 180

Running advantage after 13 bets: +1097 (+180)
All-time cumulative: +91,147
Running units after 12 bets (1W|12L): -418 (+682)

buwaytress

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Next pick described a little below but it's also UCL's standout game for me this week.

100 units on Galatasaray to WIN vs Man Utd @7.82. Other odds: 7.40
Bet ID: 651ad1504149c60001f373f7
Units advantage: 42

Running advantage after 12 bets: +917 (+42)
All-time cumulative: +90,967
Running units after 11 bets (0W|11L): -1100 (-100)

Quote from: KTChampions on October 01, 2023, 02:38:17 PM

Yep. The undeniable rule of this thread is to bet against City with odds >10 Cool

As for the Leipzig - City game, it is interesting in every sense, although I still don’t see anything other option than BTTS (even with a small odds) - City have two defeats in a row, are they really ready to make three?

Agreed and glad you caught on haha. City odds against aren't great, and the team they play I can't learn enough about so it's a miss for me. Leipzig can be hot too, so it's not a bad bet.

Tomorrow's pick, however, is my obvious glaring opportunity as United smell bad, look bad, plat bad, while Galatasaray are on a hot streak (yes they went down 2 goals vs Kopenhagn but they came back!

Quote from: arallmuus on October 01, 2023, 04:25:50 PM

I tried to find this then I had to double check this and it seems you had mistaken Frosinone for Udinese or unless you actually mean AS Roma vs Udinese but the match will be on 26th November though but I double checked the betslip as well and it was Frosinone. Anyway, too bad that AS roma won the game and it was not even close for Frosinone

You're right! My mistake, blind brain, and Roma snapped their streak (oh well)!

arallmuus

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Quote from: buwaytress on October 01, 2023, 12:40:57 PM

100 units at Sportsbet on Udinese to WIN vs Roma @8.92.
Other odds: 8.10

I tried to find this then I had to double check this and it seems you had mistaken Frosinone for Udinese or unless you actually mean AS Roma vs Udinese but the match will be on 26th November though but I double checked the betslip as well and it was Frosinone. Anyway, too bad that AS roma won the game and it was not even close for Frosinone

Quote from: buwaytress on September 30, 2023, 02:25:05 PM

I was negligent today, so didn't update here but for those who follow and know you always take City when odds are above 10/1, you know you smash that bet button! It was 11/1 with a boost but interestingly, after the own goal, Wolves were still 9/1 and City a massively lousy 12/10 value so I took a live bet for fun on the home team right then.

There's probably some great value in UCL coming up, I'll try not to be lazy here!

I thought you would have bet on City but oh well, its about time you change the W/L record sooner or later. Hoping that you will hit atleast 1-2 or this month, goodluck mate

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 30, 2023, 02:25:05 PM

I was negligent today, so didn't update here but for those who follow and know you always take City when odds are above 10/1, you know you smash that bet button! It was 11/1 with a boost but interestingly, after the own goal, Wolves were still 9/1 and City a massively lousy 12/10 value so I took a live bet for fun on the home team right then.

There's probably some great value in UCL coming up, I'll try not to be lazy here!

Yep. The undeniable rule of this thread is to bet against City with odds >10 Cool

As for the Leipzig - City game, it is interesting in every sense, although I still don’t see anything other option than BTTS (even with a small odds) - City have two defeats in a row, are they really ready to make three?

By the way, after City lost, I immediately realized that my pick in the poll in the game Tottenham - Liverpool 2 - 1 was correct. It would be too good if City dropped to second place.

buwaytress

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I know Roma are too good to continue their rot (not to mention they have an unnatural record of hitting the post this season, also holding it last season) but I like betting on streaks and the odds seem a bit too good to pass on given form so it's our pick for today:

100 units at Sportsbet on Udinese to WIN vs Roma @8.92.
Other odds: 8.10

Running advantage after 11 bets: +875 (+72)
All-time cumulative: +90,925
Running units after 10 bets (0W|10L): -1000 (-100)

buwaytress

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I was negligent today, so didn't update here but for those who follow and know you always take City when odds are above 10/1, you know you smash that bet button! It was 11/1 with a boost but interestingly, after the own goal, Wolves were still 9/1 and City a massively lousy 12/10 value so I took a live bet for fun on the home team right then.

There's probably some great value in UCL coming up, I'll try not to be lazy here!

buwaytress

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Quote from: arallmuus on September 26, 2023, 01:47:16 PM

No no no, this is going to be a huge upset of this year if this ended up happening. Yeah Ten Hag is not using his best lineup for tonight but Im telling you this is not happening mate or atleast I hope it wont happen Roll Eyes

. I'll be monitoring this game tonight if United actually ended up losing this game, then Im going to be the first to congratulate you eventhough my hands will hurt because Im going to punch something LoL

Edit : 3-0 on 70th minutes, phew glad that we are getting through this

Yesterday was unlucky, Palace keeper got injured (Henderson Old Trafford curse) and United capitalised with 3 goals soon after. I'll try and look for value in the Blues again.

Enjoy your next round progress =p

Quote from: KTChampions on September 27, 2023, 06:32:53 AM

Hey, no! We are here to get rich in betting one way or another, using the system or relying on our insight Cheesy

By the way, where are your bets against Chelsea? If I'm not mistaken, in one of the threads we discussed how betting against them can really help you get rich. If you are waiting for the odds against Chelsea to be the ones you like (closer to 10), then you shouldn’t wait - this team has fallen very much even in the eyes of the bookmakers.

Yeah I've won a couple of Chelski bets but didn't think to feature them here. Sad, but that's the reality. I post something here when I really like it, and unfortunately, yes, normally when odds are really good to me.

Today also a couple of good bets but no time to look and not so interesting for me to put up.

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 26, 2023, 11:01:12 AM

Thanks KTChampions for your faith and loyalty, but I don't mind losing this season, to prove that all systems fail eventually Wink

~

Hey, no! We are here to get rich in betting one way or another, using the system or relying on our insight Cheesy

By the way, where are your bets against Chelsea? If I'm not mistaken, in one of the threads we discussed how betting against them can really help you get rich. If you are waiting for the odds against Chelsea to be the ones you like (closer to 10), then you shouldn’t wait - this team has fallen very much even in the eyes of the bookmakers.

arallmuus

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 26, 2023, 11:01:12 AM

But tomorrow I would like to put a bit of faith in Palace to beat United in an otherwise meaningless game in the EFL Cup. I'd have gone Brighton but odds are so poor haha.

100 units on Crystal Palace to WIN vs United @5.73. Other odds: 4.90
Units advantage: +83
Bet ID: 6511a335970aa4000154df3c

Running advantage after 10 bets: +803 (+83)
All-time cumulative: +90,853
Running units after 9 bets (0W|9L): -900 (-100)

No no no, this is going to be a huge upset of this year if this ended up happening. Yeah Ten Hag is not using his best lineup for tonight but Im telling you this is not happening mate or atleast I hope it wont happen Roll Eyes

. I'll be monitoring this game tonight if United actually ended up losing this game, then Im going to be the first to congratulate you eventhough my hands will hurt because Im going to punch something LoL

Edit : 3-0 on 70th minutes, phew glad that we are getting through this

buwaytress

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Thanks KTChampions for your faith and loyalty, but I don't mind losing this season, to prove that all systems fail eventually Wink

But tomorrow I would like to put a bit of faith in Palace to beat United in an otherwise meaningless game in the EFL Cup. I'd have gone Brighton but odds are so poor haha.

100 units on Crystal Palace to WIN vs United @5.73. Other odds: 4.90
Units advantage: +83
Bet ID: 6511a335970aa4000154df3c

Running advantage after 10 bets: +803 (+83)
All-time cumulative: +90,853
Running units after 9 bets (0W|9L): -900 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on September 23, 2023, 06:19:47 AM

No wins yet here, very sad. I have, of course, had sweet hits this early season but none featured here as I didn't feel they were that great value but City at home is always a great opportunity if you consider how hard it gets for them at times.

I'll share exact odds as am out and couldn't login book. But at Sportsbet it was roughly 19/1 IIRC with a boost.

100 units at Sportsbet on Forest to fight the impossible and WIN vs City.

Update stats later today.

If City lose today it will make me very happy (I hate them Cheesy

). But if I'm not mistaken, Haaland should score a few goals today - he had a certain break in this matter, usually it ends with a double or a hattrick.
It's really a shame that there are no wins yet, but with average odds of 10, the streak without a win could easily (probably 50%) reach 15 games. So we wait

buwaytress

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No wins yet here, very sad. I have, of course, had sweet hits this early season but none featured here as I didn't feel they were that great value but City at home is always a great opportunity if you consider how hard it gets for them at times.

I'll share exact odds as am out and couldn't login book. But at Sportsbet it was roughly 19/1 IIRC with a boost.

100 units at Sportsbet on Forest to fight the impossible and WIN vs City.

Update stats later today.

buwaytress

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I came home late but the match is still 0-0, you bet now you get OK odds heh heh. But here's my outlier of the day. A decent Azerbaijan against a weakened Belgium side, I think the odds are underestimating the home side.

100 units at Sportsbet on Azerbaijan to WIN vs Belgium @16.95. Odds then: 16.00
Units advantage: +95
Bet ID: 64fb67bf4969d00001691c03

Running advantage after 8 bets: +720 (+95)
All-time cumulative: +90,770
Running units after 7 bets (0W|7L): -700 (-100)

buwaytress

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Right, so that didn't work out, but I'm reassured that I'm picking the right games for potential upsets even though BVB came away with the draw.

As intended, Gladbach is my next pick. They do really well h2h and I know Kane is there now to prevent another humiliation but I feel we can back psychology today.

100 units at Sportsbet on Gladbach to WIN vs Bayern @10.46. Other odds: 9.60
Bet ID: 64f34fcf4969d0000173b93e
Units advantage: +86

Running advantage after 7 bets: +625 (+86)
All-time cumulative: +90,675
Running units after 6 bets (0W|6L): -600 (-100)

buwaytress

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Why didn't I listen to my own wisdom and just go for an Ajax upset last night?

Another loss, but this is normal. Easiest pick of the day is a BVB home loss. They haven't looked convincing but nooks are insistent on a big win, I like the odds.

100 units at Sportsbet on Heidenheim to WIN vs Dortmund @10.90. Other odds: 10.00
Units advantage: +90

Running advantage after 6 bets: +539 (+90)
All-time cumulative: +90,589
Running units after 5 bets (0W|5L): -500 (-100)

Quote from: KTChampions on August 31, 2023, 04:45:22 PM

United sucks (and even though I'm a fan of them, I wanted Forest to win so that TH would get another flick on his impudent nose). Maybe your plan against Chelsea is good, but it seems to me that the idea with United is not very good - the bookmakers already see the real strength of this team and the odds for their games are already fair.

Heh, that's a weird thing to say for a fan but I said the same when Roy Hodgson was in charge of Liverpool so I get it. You might be right, but I'll sit and see. All I know is City odds have adjusted hugely over the past 2 seasons. Used to see 20/1 easily and now barely 14/1 against Fulham! So I need to dig better, but the days of big big wins against the champs look dried up.

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on August 31, 2023, 09:12:05 AM

Forest led by 2 goals inside the first four minutes but gave it all up. That's how it goes, but I'd be looking for value bets all season against them and Chelsea.
~

United sucks (and even though I'm a fan of them, I wanted Forest to win so that TH would get another flick on his impudent nose). Maybe your plan against Chelsea is good, but it seems to me that the idea with United is not very good - the bookmakers already see the real strength of this team and the odds for their games are already fair.

buwaytress

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Forest led by 2 goals inside the first four minutes but gave it all up. That's how it goes, but I'd be looking for value bets all season against them and Chelsea.

Took a nice win in Europe with Royal Antwerp at over 5/1 (and accas with Liverpool's next match) but couldn't find time to post that.

Instead we dip into Conference football where Fiorentina host Rapid Wien. Away team expects to lose but I think the odds are skewed bdly so presents great value.

100 units at Sportsbet on Rapid Wien to WIN vs Fiorentina @10.90. Other odds 10.20
Units advantage: +70

Running advantage after 5 bets: +429 (+70)
All-time cumulative: +90,499
Running units after 4 bets (0W|4L): -400 (-100)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 8. (Read 40042 times)