Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 47. (Read 38849 times)

Watford did us proud, but Liverpool slipped in the draw, so Chelsea losing like they did didn't make things worse since it was a boosted promotion anyway.

We'll take a simple live offering on Wolves, who have disappointed us plenty, but we'll try them again. Parlay with an expected win at Sevilla?
And then we'll see how far we get later on.

Game 1: Wolves vs Everton. Wolves WIN @2.15. Betcoin odds: 2.13
Game 2: Sevilla vs Mallorca. Sevilla WIN @1.43. Betcoin odds: 1.42
100 units parlay at FJ @3.07. Betcoin parlay: 3.02
Bet ID: 15186757

Odds advantage: 1.65%
Units advantage: 5

Thank you Granada, Soldado and co. And thank you penalty and VAR for Real. Good win, with a freebet too, makes it extra enjoyable!

Anyway, I wanted to put this down earlier but wasn't able to. Got a boosted parlay at Sportsbet for the following. Can't find the odds anymore but the odds boost was to 6/1 from below 5/1, which I'll count as 5/1 anyway. Was a bet I'd take any day, too!

Chelsea, Liverpool, City and Watford parlay at Sportsbet to win @6.0. Non boosted odds: 5/1
Bet ID: 5f072483f1f74b35dbd31d7e

Odds advantage: 20%
Units advantage: 100

Ah well. It didn't work out, and arguably more painful if Saints actually won, since our boys at Inter shuddered to another draw. Anyway, another freebet today, and I'll put it on a tough Granada game, parlay with Real to march on and see the title within their grasp.

Game 1: Sociedad vs Granada. Granada WIN @5.0.
Game 2: Real Madrid vs Alaves. Real WIN @1.25
100 units parlay at FJ @6.25
Bet ID: 12604943

No odds advantage

Really, really hard. I know Wolves have been letting me down lately and this is another blow tbh, but to be fair, I've been "improving" on the statistics side, getting a lot of parlays missing by 1 leg lately, so it's good FJ gives free parlay insurance on those. Anyway, we booked 2 wins, and lost the freebet, so we're good! If only Wolves had won, Villa did a smashing job.

Feeling lucky with Saints again, so here we go:

Game 1: Everton vs Southampton. Saints WIN @3.50. Betcoin odds: 3.45
Game 2: Aston Villa vs Manchester Utd. Utd WIN @1.32. Betcoin odds: 1.32
Game 3: Verona vs Inter. Inter WIN @1.72. Betcoin odds: 1.72
Game 4: Bilbao vs Sevilla. Sevilla WIN @2.47. Betcoin odds: 2.44
100 units parlay at FJ @19.63. Betcoin parlay: 19.11

Odds advantage: 2.72%
Units advantage: 52

The sadness of it all. But anyway, at least our guys Milan clobbered Juventus, just too bad Lazio couldn't take advantage, this was the best bet for them to take it all =(

Anyway, updated the wrong totals for yesterday.

Today's ambitious parlay is courtesy another Freebet at FortuneJack -- you get a freebet worth the average of the last 4 parlays you do over the big leagues, it's available all of July so use it!

Game 1: Sheffield United vs Wolverhampton. Wolves WIN @2.19. Betcoin odds: 2.19
Game 2: Getafe vs Villareal. Villareal WIN @3.10. Betcoin odds: 3.08
Game 3: Brighton vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.59. Betcoin odds: 1.59
Game 4: Atalanta vs Sampdoria. Atalanta WIN @1.35. Betcoin odds: 1.35
100 units parlay (freebet) at FortuneJack @14.57. Betcoin parlay: 14.48

Odds advantage: 0.6%
Units advantage: 9

We love Liverpool don't we and we've got to win tonight to win our parlay yesterday, so let's put a bit more risk on, with some reasonable bets. Plus, Mo's got to be due an early goal by now! Salah to score in 1H @4.25.
bet ID: 5f05e9e10d9ad8527720a034

No odds advantage.

Can't believe I was ALMOST there! Sevilla and Spurs were tight tight wins at 1-0 but when Bremen scored the injury time goal to make it 2-1 I thought we were safe. Idiots had to let in a penalty!

Anyway, we go again! Watford to secure 3 points, Chelsea to strengthen their bid for fourth, Lazio to keep their hopes of Serie A alive, and Atletico to make certain of CL spot in a win.

Game 1: Watford vs Norwich. Watford WIN @1.76. Betcoin odds: 1.76
Game 2: Crystal Palace vs Chelsea. Chelsea WIN @1.45. Betcoin odds: 1.45
Game 3: Lecce vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @1.37. Betcoin odds: 1.37
Game 4: Celta vs Atletico. Atletico WIN @2.04. Betcoin odds: 2.04
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @7.13. Betcoin parlay: no difference
Bet ID: 08794113

Odds advantage: 0%
Units advantage: 0

Since we want Lazio to win, why not parlay Juventus loss with Liverpool win tomorrow?
Game 1: Milan vs Juventus. Milan WIN @3.55. Betcoin odds: 3.40
Game 2: Brighton vs Liverpool. Liverpool WIN @1.57. Betcoin odds: 1.57
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @5.57. Betcoin parlay: 5.34
Bet ID: 05509324

Odds advantage: 4.3%
Units advantage: 23

Oh tsk, our hedge was totally not needed, and a small waste of a freebet, but never the matter, that's what insurance is for. No Danny Ings goal but the Saints stole this one didn't they? 23 points gap with 5 games to go. Oh but how the mighty have fallen. Used to be see 20/1 odds for City to lose, now even with a boosted price I got barely 9/1.

Still a victory to savour. Today's bet is on Mourinho to please win, parlayed with Werder Bremen to please make their case to remain in Bundesliga. And Sevilla to show some grit.


Game 1: Heidenheim vs Werder. Bremen WIN @1.93. Betcoin odds: 1.92
Game 2: Tottenham vs Everton. Spurs WIN @2.07. Betcoin odds: 2.08
Game 3: Sevilla vs Eibar. Sevilla WIN @1.44. Betcoin odds: 1.42
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @5.75. Betcoin parlay: 5.67
Bet ID: 06002747

Odds advantage: 1.41%
Units advantage: 8

Total units advantage: 101

Wasn't available yesterday to bet sorry, but we lost out on this one leg on the Wolves game, but thanks to insurance parlay we get back 25 units as a freebet, which I'll use later when it accumulates =)

I'm playing a Saints upset against City today, easy one 100 units on Southampton to WIN vs Man City @9.16 at Sportsbet. Betcoin: 8.60
Bet ID: 5f01aef39ae7d3bdaac69745

Odds advantage: 6.51%
Units advantage: 56

OK, OK, I guess I'll have to take a hedge, of course City will win right? And are we going to allow Barca to let us down again today? Yes? Haha... yes.

Game 1: Bilbao vs Real Madrid. Real WIN @1.84. Betcoin odds: 1.82
Game 2: Liverpool vs Villa. Liverpool WIN -1.5 @1.71. Betcoin odds: 1.65
Game 3: Southampton vs City. City WIN @1.36. Betcoin odds: 1.34
Game 4: Villarreal vs Barcelona. Barca WIN @1.76. Betcoin odds: 1.76
100 units parlay using Freebet at FortuneJack @7.53. Betcoin parlay: 7.08
Bet ID: 18175571

Odds advantage: 6.36%
Units advantage: 45

Total units advantage: 101

Shocking. Pep said we were full of beers last week so maybe he was right. Do we deserve to play like that? Well, give the boys a break right? Next season Pep, and Sterling finally got his goal against LFC, shows what happens without a crowd to pressure you I guess.

A parlay that runs till tomorrow:
Game 1: Atletico vs Mallorca. Atleti WIN @1.33.
Game 2: Leicester vs Palace. Leicester WIN @1.70
Game 3: Wolverhampton vs Arsenal. Wolves WIN @2.28
Game 4: Chelsea vs Watford. Chelsea WIN @1.44
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @7.42. Betcoin: same!
Bet ID: 11148662

Guess not =)

Norwich are horrible we know that but they almost had United against the ropes, they'll be disappointed they couldn't hold a brittle Arsenal defence to a flame.

OK, two tough affairs here. Liverpool are not the favourites, bookies probably expecting Klopp to field youth, but I'm ok with that. It's our freebet too, so I'm not too worried, we lose and no units taken!

Game 1: Sheffield United vs Tottenham. Spurs WIN @1.88. Betcoin: same
Game 2: Manchester City vs Liverpool. Pool WIN @3.60. Betcoin: same
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @6.77
Bet ID: 05934710

No odds advantage.

Wow I rekt myself with Barca AGAIN. Before lockdown they were really giving good value as bookies didn't like them but now we're losing from their draws, think that's 3 times in a row I've lost from them. Way to ruin our parlays Barca.

OK, so, Arsenal want to win Europa to get into CL or win FA cup to get into Europa. So they'll play like shit against Norwich, right?

100 units at Sportsbet for Norwich to (finally) WIN vs Arsenal @7.42. Betcoin odds: 7.00
Bet ID: 5efc49a99ae7d3c784c58daa

Odds advantage: 6%
Units advantage: 42

Ouchie. Getafe got us over the line but really Palace should have won this with at least 2 goals. They actually created a lot more chances than usual, 12 or 13? Such is football, I'd take this bet again given the chance!

I'm going for a big 7-leg parlay today. Feeling confident, and I know it's weird to be putting United and Chelsea in my picks, but they have to win this big time so here it is, over the next 3 days. Also, if I miss this only by 1, FJ's parlay insurance gives me back the whole bet, so yay! Also, caught REALLY good odds regardless, and demonstrates the huge diff small odd advantages make in parlays.

Game 1: Brighton vs Manchester Utd. Utd WIN @1.72. Betcoin odds: 1.62
Game 2: Genoa vs Juventus. Juve WIN @1.47. Betcoin odds: 1.41
Game 3: Barcelona vs Atletico. Barca WIN @1.88. Betcoin odds: 1.88
Game 4: West Ham vs Chelsea. Chelsea WIN @1.61. Betcoin odds: 1.61
Game 5: Spal vs Milan. Milan WIN @1.67. Betcoin odds: 1.62
Game 6: Werder vs Heidenheim. Werder WIN @1.78. Betcoin odds: 1.54
Game 7: Roma vs Udinese. Roma WIN @1.59. Betcoin odds: 1.63
100 units parlay at FJ @36.17. Betcoin parlay: 28.12
Bet ID: 13418085

Odds advantage: 28.62%
Units advantage: 805

Do we really want to double down on Barca? They ARE the ones with the worst odds of the above selection. But yes we do, and we want to throw Lazio in because I want them to win Serie A badly:
Game 3: Barcelona vs Atletico. Barca WIN @1.89. Betcoin odds: 1.88
Game 2: Torino vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @1.77. Betcoind odds: 1.74
100 units parlay at FJ @3.35. Betcoin parlay: 3.27
Bet ID: 02922385

Odds advantage: 2.45%
Units advantage: 8

Total units advantage: 813

Don't know about you guys but I love it especially good when a freebet parlay hits! Granted, I only won one of the 4 bets needed to get that freebet, but that's an awesome way to get value in my books, like an instant cashback of sorts =D

Anyway, we're back up above 10k (phew) so still on track to end the season well.

A rare over 2.5 goals parlay for me today, I have a good feeling it'll be at least a 2-1 win for either of the teams involved.

Palace vs Burnley. Over 2.5 goals @2.70. Betcoin odds: 2.64
Getafe vs Sociedad. Over 2.5 goals @2.60. Betcoin odds: 2.53
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @7.02. Betcoin parlay: 6.6784
Betslip ID: 18005305

Odds advantage: 5.09%
Units advantage: 34.16

Lazio took us home but our old boy Iago Aspas in a new shirt took a superb freekick to kick Barca in the teeth. Poor us.

On the bright side, we now have the freebet (4+1 promo from FJ) which I'll use today for this parlay, betting on Ings to carry us home, with expected wins for Real and Inter:

Game 1: Watford vs Southampton. Saints WIN @3.15. Betcoin odds: 3.13
Game 2: Parma vs Inter. Inter WIN @1.57. Betcoin: 1.56
Game 3: Espanyol vs Real Madrid. Real WIN @1.44. Betcoin: 1.44
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @7.12. Betcoin odds: 7.03
Bet ID: 10296426

Odds advantage: 0.13%
Units advantage: 9

I'm hedging this with:
Watford special at Sportsbet: Over 8.5 corners, Over 1.5 goals, Watford +0.5, Over 2.5 yellows: 5/1. Betcoin odds: 1.40*1.37*1.4*1.41=3.78
Bet ID: 5ef853d74d04dd001f2ddb1d

Odds advantage: 32.27%
Units advantage: 122

Edit:
Adding a simple 2-game parlay as FJ's 4+1 is just too awesome to ignore (you get it win or lose).

Game 1: Villarreal vs Valencia. Villareal WIN @2.29. Betcoin odds: 2.21
Game 2: Udinese vs Atalanta. Atalanta WIN @1.50. Betcoin odds: 1.52
100 units parlay at FJ @3.44. Betcoin parlay: 3.36. Bet ID: 09494747

Odds advantage: 2.38%
Units advantage: 8

Total units advantage: 139

Terrible game. They were doing reasonably well I would say until the red card, and then they changed to try and protect the game and that was the mistake. Penaldo had his obligatory goal blah.

Anyway, last game for Bundesliga tonight so will take a look but for now, Barca to fight to be top again and Lazio to make amends for that shitty loss. Immobile brace!

Game 1: Celta vs Barca. Barca WIN @1.41. Betcoin odds: SAME
Game 2: Lazio vs Fiorentina. LAzio WIN @1.89. Betcoin odds: SAME
100 units parlay at FJ @2.66.

No odds advantage.

Sigh Valencia, we needed you to score 1 goal, or let in another haha. Didn't happen so the Chelsea win was wasted (not that it matters as it makes Liverpool the record winner with 7 games to spare!).

Let's enjoy that and take a nice big underdog bet on relegation-strugglers Lecce, for whom a win would be a huge boost out of that bottom 3!

100 units at Betcoin on Lecce to WIN vs Juventus @19.27. FJ odds: 18.00

Odds advantage: 7.05%
Units advantage: 127

Inter just HAD to miss that open goal. Everything else was fairly comfortable, even if Wolves had a 1-0 scoreline. And Lazio, well, what can I say. Atalanta were always going to pound and you can't defend that forever...

Anyway, I've to say that since playing at FJ, the odds there are now comparable to Betcoin and Sportsbet, so it's really now down to the boosts (at SB) and the promos (at FJ)!

I do think City should win this easily, but I wonder if Pulisic can pull his socks up for this one and smash a goal in? Kante also loves these matches so let's go for an upset, plus another 2-goal Valencia win/draw?

Game 1: Eibar vs Valencia. Over 1.5 @1.35. Betcoin: 1.34
Game 2: Chelsea vs Manchester City. Chelsea WIN @4.40. Betcoin: 4.42
100 units parlay at FJ @5.94.  Betcoin odds: 5.92

Odds advantage: 0.33%
Units advantage: 2

How annoying. Leicester failed to win, but luckily Napoli and Spurs did, with Barca just edging Bilbao out so we have another 25 unit freebet to collect later today (FJ's insurance parlay). And because we completed 4 bets, we get 1 free so I'm using that freebet today (but because we can't split freebets I'm going to have to use up 125 units). Small joys!

Game 1: Wolverhampton vs Bournemouth. Wolves WIN @1.57
Game 2: Inter vs Sassuolo. Inter WIN @1.45
Game 3: Liverpool vs Crystal Palace. Pool WIN @1.32
Game 4: Roma vs Sampdoria. Roma WIN @1.46.
125 units freebet at FortuneJack @4.39. Bet ID: 00633374
No comparison as it's a freebet!

In play bet as I'm sure Liverpool will get this, odds are slowly climbing back up (heh heh) and how about Lazio to push on to win the Serie A?
Game 1: Liverpool vs Palace. Pool WIN @1.36. SB odds: 1.32
Game 2: Atalanta vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @3.22. SB odds: 3.20
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.37. SB parlay: 4.22

Odds advantage: 3.55%
Units advantage: 15

Edit: damn, goals minutes! Couldn't help enjoying 4-0.

I totally get you, we all have our own systems and while I am quick to say my system is geared at enjoyment, I have been making a small profit on the side for several seasons now, so I'm happy to always keep hunting for value, it gives me some excitement and a bit of beer money. I keep my betting fixed too, so if I'm 100% up, my initial 1% outlay is now 0.5% outlay. Easy not to get greedy I guess if you have a good system. But yeah, people don't listen. No harm!

I'm also reminding people occasionally that this thread isn't so much a tips thread but an odds advantage thread, which suits long odds even better, when using things like the boosts at Sportsbet, or current promotions like FJ's free insurance and 4+1 simultaneously going on now!

Anyway, without further ado, today's picks:

Game 1: Leicester vs Brighton. Leicester WIN @1.68. Betcoin odds: 1.63
Game 2: Verona vs Napoli. Napoli WIN @1.93. Betcoin odds: 1.96
Game 3: Spurs vs West Ham. Spurs WIN @1.65. Betcoin odds: 1.70
Game 4: Barca vs Bilbao. Barca WIN @1.37. Betcoin: 1.29
100 units parlay at FortuneJack: 7.33 Betcoin parlay: 7.01
Bet ID: 07088945

Our June 20th bet missed by 1 leg, so we have a 25% freebet (FJ's insurance promo, PM for a ref!), which I'll keep here for 25 ppints till it's big enough to use:)

Odds advantage: 4.7%
Units advantage: 32

Freebet: 25

No need for that, it wasn't just you, there was some other very optimistic members here on the forum as well. Even if it was my last money and not just a very high stake ticket (10% of my betting bank) I wouldn't blame you. I read all the tips from tipsters I believe that have something to offer and I let them influence my thinking sometimes. You probably saved me some money in the past when I wanted to play on some favorite and then I saw your underdog pick and reconsidered.

That is actually a main reason I am not posting tips anymore. I have a large betting bank and a system which works for me. I used to run a tipster blog but received so many insults that I decided not to do that anymore. There was one year when I ended with 20k EUR in the plus (my best year ever by far, usually it is less then 5K) and earned a shitload of critics because I lost maybe 6k EUR in November. In December I more than recovered my loses but that has probably not helped some people that lost all their money a month before. That was the final nail in the coffin, no matter how many times you tell people to gamble responsibly and never stake more than 2-5% of their bank they will not listen.