Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 50. (Read 40042 times)

Shocking. Pep said we were full of beers last week so maybe he was right. Do we deserve to play like that? Well, give the boys a break right? Next season Pep, and Sterling finally got his goal against LFC, shows what happens without a crowd to pressure you I guess.

A parlay that runs till tomorrow:
Game 1: Atletico vs Mallorca. Atleti WIN @1.33.
Game 2: Leicester vs Palace. Leicester WIN @1.70
Game 3: Wolverhampton vs Arsenal. Wolves WIN @2.28
Game 4: Chelsea vs Watford. Chelsea WIN @1.44
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @7.42. Betcoin: same!
Bet ID: 11148662

Guess not =)

Norwich are horrible we know that but they almost had United against the ropes, they'll be disappointed they couldn't hold a brittle Arsenal defence to a flame.

OK, two tough affairs here. Liverpool are not the favourites, bookies probably expecting Klopp to field youth, but I'm ok with that. It's our freebet too, so I'm not too worried, we lose and no units taken!

Game 1: Sheffield United vs Tottenham. Spurs WIN @1.88. Betcoin: same
Game 2: Manchester City vs Liverpool. Pool WIN @3.60. Betcoin: same
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @6.77
Bet ID: 05934710

No odds advantage.

Wow I rekt myself with Barca AGAIN. Before lockdown they were really giving good value as bookies didn't like them but now we're losing from their draws, think that's 3 times in a row I've lost from them. Way to ruin our parlays Barca.

OK, so, Arsenal want to win Europa to get into CL or win FA cup to get into Europa. So they'll play like shit against Norwich, right?

100 units at Sportsbet for Norwich to (finally) WIN vs Arsenal @7.42. Betcoin odds: 7.00
Bet ID: 5efc49a99ae7d3c784c58daa

Odds advantage: 6%
Units advantage: 42

Ouchie. Getafe got us over the line but really Palace should have won this with at least 2 goals. They actually created a lot more chances than usual, 12 or 13? Such is football, I'd take this bet again given the chance!

I'm going for a big 7-leg parlay today. Feeling confident, and I know it's weird to be putting United and Chelsea in my picks, but they have to win this big time so here it is, over the next 3 days. Also, if I miss this only by 1, FJ's parlay insurance gives me back the whole bet, so yay! Also, caught REALLY good odds regardless, and demonstrates the huge diff small odd advantages make in parlays.

Game 1: Brighton vs Manchester Utd. Utd WIN @1.72. Betcoin odds: 1.62
Game 2: Genoa vs Juventus. Juve WIN @1.47. Betcoin odds: 1.41
Game 3: Barcelona vs Atletico. Barca WIN @1.88. Betcoin odds: 1.88
Game 4: West Ham vs Chelsea. Chelsea WIN @1.61. Betcoin odds: 1.61
Game 5: Spal vs Milan. Milan WIN @1.67. Betcoin odds: 1.62
Game 6: Werder vs Heidenheim. Werder WIN @1.78. Betcoin odds: 1.54
Game 7: Roma vs Udinese. Roma WIN @1.59. Betcoin odds: 1.63
100 units parlay at FJ @36.17. Betcoin parlay: 28.12
Bet ID: 13418085

Odds advantage: 28.62%
Units advantage: 805

Do we really want to double down on Barca? They ARE the ones with the worst odds of the above selection. But yes we do, and we want to throw Lazio in because I want them to win Serie A badly:
Game 3: Barcelona vs Atletico. Barca WIN @1.89. Betcoin odds: 1.88
Game 2: Torino vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @1.77. Betcoind odds: 1.74
100 units parlay at FJ @3.35. Betcoin parlay: 3.27
Bet ID: 02922385

Odds advantage: 2.45%
Units advantage: 8

Total units advantage: 813

Don't know about you guys but I love it especially good when a freebet parlay hits! Granted, I only won one of the 4 bets needed to get that freebet, but that's an awesome way to get value in my books, like an instant cashback of sorts =D

Anyway, we're back up above 10k (phew) so still on track to end the season well.

A rare over 2.5 goals parlay for me today, I have a good feeling it'll be at least a 2-1 win for either of the teams involved.

Palace vs Burnley. Over 2.5 goals @2.70. Betcoin odds: 2.64
Getafe vs Sociedad. Over 2.5 goals @2.60. Betcoin odds: 2.53
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @7.02. Betcoin parlay: 6.6784
Betslip ID: 18005305

Odds advantage: 5.09%
Units advantage: 34.16

Lazio took us home but our old boy Iago Aspas in a new shirt took a superb freekick to kick Barca in the teeth. Poor us.

On the bright side, we now have the freebet (4+1 promo from FJ) which I'll use today for this parlay, betting on Ings to carry us home, with expected wins for Real and Inter:

Game 1: Watford vs Southampton. Saints WIN @3.15. Betcoin odds: 3.13
Game 2: Parma vs Inter. Inter WIN @1.57. Betcoin: 1.56
Game 3: Espanyol vs Real Madrid. Real WIN @1.44. Betcoin: 1.44
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @7.12. Betcoin odds: 7.03
Bet ID: 10296426

Odds advantage: 0.13%
Units advantage: 9

I'm hedging this with:
Watford special at Sportsbet: Over 8.5 corners, Over 1.5 goals, Watford +0.5, Over 2.5 yellows: 5/1. Betcoin odds: 1.40*1.37*1.4*1.41=3.78
Bet ID: 5ef853d74d04dd001f2ddb1d

Odds advantage: 32.27%
Units advantage: 122

Edit:
Adding a simple 2-game parlay as FJ's 4+1 is just too awesome to ignore (you get it win or lose).

Game 1: Villarreal vs Valencia. Villareal WIN @2.29. Betcoin odds: 2.21
Game 2: Udinese vs Atalanta. Atalanta WIN @1.50. Betcoin odds: 1.52
100 units parlay at FJ @3.44. Betcoin parlay: 3.36. Bet ID: 09494747

Odds advantage: 2.38%
Units advantage: 8

Total units advantage: 139

Terrible game. They were doing reasonably well I would say until the red card, and then they changed to try and protect the game and that was the mistake. Penaldo had his obligatory goal blah.

Anyway, last game for Bundesliga tonight so will take a look but for now, Barca to fight to be top again and Lazio to make amends for that shitty loss. Immobile brace!

Game 1: Celta vs Barca. Barca WIN @1.41. Betcoin odds: SAME
Game 2: Lazio vs Fiorentina. LAzio WIN @1.89. Betcoin odds: SAME
100 units parlay at FJ @2.66.

No odds advantage.

Sigh Valencia, we needed you to score 1 goal, or let in another haha. Didn't happen so the Chelsea win was wasted (not that it matters as it makes Liverpool the record winner with 7 games to spare!).

Let's enjoy that and take a nice big underdog bet on relegation-strugglers Lecce, for whom a win would be a huge boost out of that bottom 3!

100 units at Betcoin on Lecce to WIN vs Juventus @19.27. FJ odds: 18.00

Odds advantage: 7.05%
Units advantage: 127

Inter just HAD to miss that open goal. Everything else was fairly comfortable, even if Wolves had a 1-0 scoreline. And Lazio, well, what can I say. Atalanta were always going to pound and you can't defend that forever...

Anyway, I've to say that since playing at FJ, the odds there are now comparable to Betcoin and Sportsbet, so it's really now down to the boosts (at SB) and the promos (at FJ)!

I do think City should win this easily, but I wonder if Pulisic can pull his socks up for this one and smash a goal in? Kante also loves these matches so let's go for an upset, plus another 2-goal Valencia win/draw?

Game 1: Eibar vs Valencia. Over 1.5 @1.35. Betcoin: 1.34
Game 2: Chelsea vs Manchester City. Chelsea WIN @4.40. Betcoin: 4.42
100 units parlay at FJ @5.94.  Betcoin odds: 5.92

Odds advantage: 0.33%
Units advantage: 2

How annoying. Leicester failed to win, but luckily Napoli and Spurs did, with Barca just edging Bilbao out so we have another 25 unit freebet to collect later today (FJ's insurance parlay). And because we completed 4 bets, we get 1 free so I'm using that freebet today (but because we can't split freebets I'm going to have to use up 125 units). Small joys!

Game 1: Wolverhampton vs Bournemouth. Wolves WIN @1.57
Game 2: Inter vs Sassuolo. Inter WIN @1.45
Game 3: Liverpool vs Crystal Palace. Pool WIN @1.32
Game 4: Roma vs Sampdoria. Roma WIN @1.46.
125 units freebet at FortuneJack @4.39. Bet ID: 00633374
No comparison as it's a freebet!

In play bet as I'm sure Liverpool will get this, odds are slowly climbing back up (heh heh) and how about Lazio to push on to win the Serie A?
Game 1: Liverpool vs Palace. Pool WIN @1.36. SB odds: 1.32
Game 2: Atalanta vs Lazio. Lazio WIN @3.22. SB odds: 3.20
100 units parlay at Betcoin @4.37. SB parlay: 4.22

Odds advantage: 3.55%
Units advantage: 15

Edit: damn, goals minutes! Couldn't help enjoying 4-0.

I totally get you, we all have our own systems and while I am quick to say my system is geared at enjoyment, I have been making a small profit on the side for several seasons now, so I'm happy to always keep hunting for value, it gives me some excitement and a bit of beer money. I keep my betting fixed too, so if I'm 100% up, my initial 1% outlay is now 0.5% outlay. Easy not to get greedy I guess if you have a good system. But yeah, people don't listen. No harm!

I'm also reminding people occasionally that this thread isn't so much a tips thread but an odds advantage thread, which suits long odds even better, when using things like the boosts at Sportsbet, or current promotions like FJ's free insurance and 4+1 simultaneously going on now!

Anyway, without further ado, today's picks:

Game 1: Leicester vs Brighton. Leicester WIN @1.68. Betcoin odds: 1.63
Game 2: Verona vs Napoli. Napoli WIN @1.93. Betcoin odds: 1.96
Game 3: Spurs vs West Ham. Spurs WIN @1.65. Betcoin odds: 1.70
Game 4: Barca vs Bilbao. Barca WIN @1.37. Betcoin: 1.29
100 units parlay at FortuneJack: 7.33 Betcoin parlay: 7.01
Bet ID: 07088945

Our June 20th bet missed by 1 leg, so we have a 25% freebet (FJ's insurance promo, PM for a ref!), which I'll keep here for 25 ppints till it's big enough to use:)

Odds advantage: 4.7%
Units advantage: 32

Freebet: 25

No need for that, it wasn't just you, there was some other very optimistic members here on the forum as well. Even if it was my last money and not just a very high stake ticket (10% of my betting bank) I wouldn't blame you. I read all the tips from tipsters I believe that have something to offer and I let them influence my thinking sometimes. You probably saved me some money in the past when I wanted to play on some favorite and then I saw your underdog pick and reconsidered.

That is actually a main reason I am not posting tips anymore. I have a large betting bank and a system which works for me. I used to run a tipster blog but received so many insults that I decided not to do that anymore. There was one year when I ended with 20k EUR in the plus (my best year ever by far, usually it is less then 5K) and earned a shitload of critics because I lost maybe 6k EUR in November. In December I more than recovered my loses but that has probably not helped some people that lost all their money a month before. That was the final nail in the coffin, no matter how many times you tell people to gamble responsibly and never stake more than 2-5% of their bank they will not listen.

 

Sorry for suckering you in Trofo. I feel really bad.

I actually had the nagging feeling as soon as I saw the HT lineup. Milner wasn't so worrying but when Gomez had to play LB, and then Lovren had to come in, then I knew we simply weren't equipped to penetrate once Keita got off.

Oh well:)

Least I got the other parlay right, so it softens the blow and we're a step to freebets.

Tonight:
Game 1: Lecce vs Milan. Milan WIN @1.63. SB odds: 1.62
Game 2: City vs Burnley. Corners over 9.5 @1.43. SB odds: 1.39
Game 3: Bologna vs Juventus. Juve WIN @1.65. SB odds: 1.64
Game 4: Leganes vs Granada. Granda WIN @3.55. SB odds: 3.55
100 units parlay at FortuneJack @13.84. SB parlay: 13.10
Bet ID: 04547565

Odds advantage: 5.64%
Units advantage: 74

Running advantage after 330 bets: +8,032.62 (+74)
All-time cumulative: +30,031.84
Running units after 329 bets (54W|275L): +10,237.15 (-600 for 2 settled bets including yesterday's 500unit bet, and +187 = -413)

Well, you sure suckered me into betting on Liverpool. I was thinking to skip it in the morning on grounds that they will want it way too much and if they don't score early there could be some mental block and a way for Everton to exploit that, especially since it is the first game after the break and local derby. Now i thought about the game a bit more and decided that Liverpool quality and their will to finally secure the title have to be enough to beat Everton.

In the end I also placed a big single on them so we can all be red tonight.

I'm so in love with that Brighton win. I thought it was over when Pepe got the lead tbh, even though Arsenal looked like they'd crumble before then. Maupay injury time winner bags us our biggest parlay win of post-covid and takes us back above 10,000 units!

Anyway, I'm going to take some fairly inadvisable risks today so will probably keep updating this page. Because Liverpool have to be so motivated to win, I'm putting five times the normal bet (500 units) on a single on them at Sportsbet to WIN vs Everton @1.62. Betcoin odds: 1.56.
Bet ID: 5eef1742f725ea486d665b62

Odds advantage: 3.85%
Units advantage: 30

Also, FJ has a great 4+1 promo going on -- you can look up the terms here, but basically after 4 qualifying sports bets, they give you a free bet worth the average of the 4. I'll have an odds DISadvantage actually, but the freebet is a really good value for me, so I'll post some less-than-typical bets for myself, and calculate the disadvantage anyway if there is! Starting with:

Game 1: Valencia vs Osasuna. Valencia WIN @2.01. Betcoin odds: 2.04
Game 2: Inter vs Sampdoria. Inter WIN @1.43. Betcoin odds: 1.43
100 units parlay @2.87. Betcoin parlay: 2.92
Bet ID: 18091566

Odds advantage: -1.74%
Units advantage: -5

Why did I go for that additional parlay? Even if Spurs made it, Barca didn't haha. Bloody éll.

Anyway, I got a really nice one for today, a 4-way favourite parlay from Sportsbet with boosted odds.

Game 1: Villa vs Chelsea. Chelsea win @1.54
Game 2: Everton vs Liverpool. Pool win @1.61
Game 3: Schalke vs Wolfsburg. Wolfsburg win @1.75
Game 4: Bayern vs Freiburg. Bayern win @1.14.
Boosted parlay at Sportsbet @6.0. Regular parlay: 4.95

Odds advantage: 21.2%
Units advantage: 105

Since I don't learn my lesson, let's go for a double-headed upset with Brighton and BVB (they're the underdog, shocker) to win:
Game 1: Leipzig vs BVB. BVB to win @3.15. SB odds: 3.10
Game 2: Brighton vs Arsenal. Brighton to win @3.03. SB odds: 2.99
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.54. SB parlay: 9.26

Edit, adding the betslip
Odds advantage: 3.02%
Units advantage: 28

I think you're right actually! If I were to have $1, I could put 50 cents on each outcome and only win either $3.1 or $2.7. (so an averaged profitability of $2.9.

But if I have $1 and put it all on the SB one, if any of them score, I get $4.5. And I'm not taking this only because they're both the likely scorers for each of their teams (all the bookies have them as the most likely to score), they are ALSO the first-choice penalty takers for both teams, so if that happens first, they're stepping up =)

That's over 50% boosted odds!

Would merit you if I had any heh heh.

Interesting. The math for me would go as follows:
HK to score 6.2 + MR to score 5.4
I would add those two and divide by 2 to get median odd
6.2+5.4=11.6
11.6/2=5.8

And then you basically have two chances to get it right instead of one so again I would again divide by 2
5.8 / 2 = 2,9

They give you odds @4.5 which seems like great value for me.

Oops Valencia. And we dip below 10,000 units in profit. Oh well! Season almost ending so we're sure to be in profit heh.

I'm going to relax a bit today and just bet on one special at Sportsbet (at least, that's what I'm telling myself now). I don't know how to compare odds on there but as a sort of yardstick:
Harry Kane first to score at Betcoin: 62/10
Rashford first to score at Betcoin: 54/10

So for me, 100 units at Sportsbet on Kane/Rashford to score first @4.5 is good enough!

No odds advantage.

Edit: I couldn't resist it honestly. Saints inplay /Barca/Spurs parlay please at over 16/1. I'll update stats in a bit as soon as my sportsbook accepts... giving me problems.

I actually thought, ok not bad, we can end the half 0-0 and Arsenal will switch gears and the tides will turn but classic David Luiz, right?

I didn't seriously think they were going to be that bad. Arteta must have been easy on them or something.

But yes, Valencia's a dark horse and Ramos was Real's best player in the last game and he wasn't THAT good -- I think there's something a bit off about the team and we could see a small upset.

Oh and yes, not a big Barca fan but definitely them over Real plus, I do like Suarez and Messi =D