Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 4.

buwaytress

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^ Sorry I missed your post KTChampions, I really owe this thread some reinjection of attention, but the way real life is, I'm not sure things can really improve. Value bet scanning isn't exactly the most absurdly time-consuming process in the world. But it does need some kind of attention, and I've been unable to look beyond low-hanging fruits (hence the City overkill).

Unfortunately, I don't think things improve, but you never know. I win the lottery and this becomes my passion project haha.

With that, we put in an early Villa upset over Citeh -- no Watkins, no problems.

100 units at Sportsbet on Villa to WIN vs Man City @9.13. Other odds: 8.90
Units advantage: 23

Running advantage after 77 bets: +7872 (+23)
All-time cumulative: +97,642
Running units after 76 bets (5W|71L): -4192 (-1000)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on March 10, 2024, 10:34:40 AM

Of course, Bayern had to go goal-crazy. Kane had to score a hattrick.

My poor form in this thread can be attributed to bad decisions, and an absence of posting wins when I actually made them. That'll teach for me for a lack of discipline.

Today's bet is illd-advised. Low value, because Liverpool are hardly at half their peak first eleven, while City are practically at maximum strength. Odds should be well above 5/1, but there is a strange vibe at Anfield, with a strange period of uncertainty looming over the club. Spirits have never been higher, and Klopp's men want him to go out with an absolute bang.

To paraphrase a forum regular Igebotz, I will say: "Better to take out sharks as I sink, than accept a quiet drowning."

With that, please don't follow this bet...

1000 units on Liverpool to WIN vs Man City @3.45. Other odds: similar. No units advantage
Bet ID: 65edd37edabdd80001e3ca20

Running advantage after 76 bets: +7849 (+0)
All-time cumulative: +97,619
Running units after 75 bets (5W|70L): -3192 (-100)

It was a good bet (in the poll I also chose Liverpool to win), it just so happened that Liverpool was unable to capitalize on their advantage, which they obviously had starting from the second half. I'm happy for Arsenal, but very disappointed that City managed to sneak away with a point today.
I will look with great interest at the updated quotes for the title tomorrow, in my opinion, City in no way justifies the status of favorite.

buwaytress

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Of course, Bayern had to go goal-crazy. Kane had to score a hattrick.

My poor form in this thread can be attributed to bad decisions, and an absence of posting wins when I actually made them. That'll teach for me for a lack of discipline.

Today's bet is illd-advised. Low value, because Liverpool are hardly at half their peak first eleven, while City are practically at maximum strength. Odds should be well above 5/1, but there is a strange vibe at Anfield, with a strange period of uncertainty looming over the club. Spirits have never been higher, and Klopp's men want him to go out with an absolute bang.

To paraphrase a forum regular Igebotz, I will say: "Better to take out sharks as I sink, than accept a quiet drowning."

With that, please don't follow this bet...

1000 units on Liverpool to WIN vs Man City @3.45. Other odds: similar. No units advantage
Bet ID: 65edd37edabdd80001e3ca20

Running advantage after 76 bets: +7849 (+0)
All-time cumulative: +97,619
Running units after 75 bets (5W|70L): -3192 (-100)

buwaytress

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Bayern played silky football, Kane scored twice, and Lazio were wiped off the UCL map. Ordinarily, this means I look elsewhere, but Bayern didn't actually solve their problems, struggling with creativity and if Kane has an off-day, problems? I think so, and Mainz at over 10/1 seems to me a decent outcome to put some money on.

100 units at Sportsbet on Mainz to WIN vs Bayern Munich @10.63. Other odds: 10.10. Units advantage: 53

Running advantage after 75 bets: +7849 (+53)
All-time cumulative: +97,619
Running units after 74 bets (5W|69L): -3092 (-100)

buwaytress

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Well and truly smacked. Arsenal were good, but this was more of a case of Blades being so bad, I even wonder if Manchester United's worst performances this season top that.

Over and out, I missed out Lazio's incredible upset on the first leg. Will Bayern try so hard they'll open themselves up and lose again? I say yes, let's see how far my bad season can progress.

100 units at Sportsbet on Lazio to WIN vs Bayern Munich @10.63. Other odds: 10.10
Units advantage: 53

Running advantage after 74 bets: +7796 (+53)
All-time cumulative: +97,566
Running units after 73 bets (5W|68L): -2992 (-100)

buwaytress

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Some days, your betting results should dictate your following day strategy. On other days, you try and compile the thoughts you've been having over recent weeks and try to mirror them in your bets.

With my thread, however, we simply do our best to pay attention to value. As such, we tag on tomorrow's Sheffield to try and get one win to keep their survival hopes alive (or for Arsenal to finally return to the mean). I caught great odds too, as books today are only giving 13/1.

100 units on Sheffield Utd to WIN vs Arsenal @18.60. Other odds: 13.80. Units advantage: 480
Bet ID: 65e0e6d2dabdd80001080fa4

Running advantage after 73 bets: +7743 (+480)
All-time cumulative: +97,513
Running units after 72 bets (5W|67L): -2892 (-100)

buwaytress

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Tough luck on the earlier bets. I wasn't actually going to place any for tomorrow, but United odds have now dropped to 10/1, making it suddenly enter into "doable" territory. Three seasons ago, I placed a similar bet on this derby, with similar odds. I feel the time has come for a repeat. No Hojlund, but Rashford needs to reboot his boots, Ten Hag needs this win. So why not?

100 units at Sportsbet on United to WIN vs City @10.90. Other odds: 10. Units advantage: 90

Running advantage after 72 bets: +7263 (+90)
All-time cumulative: +97,133
Running units after 71 bets (5W|66L): -2792 (-200)

buwaytress

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I really like tonight's game. Arsenal have been absolutely flying but they had a stifling time in Porto, failing to register a single shot on target against a team well behind the best two in Portugal.

Newcastle, on the other hand, have been finding life hard in the Prem League but are not short of goals, 15 goals in the past 5 league games, including luminaries like City and Villa. Arsenal have 21 in the same timeframe, vs Liverpool and Hammers, so on paper, much better. But the Super Boost on Sportsbet (every Newcastle game) makes this impossible not to back.

Also, being an idiot, I have to take Blades vs Wolves, and acca that against Liverpool in tomorrow's EFL cup final. Without further ado, 100 units at Sportsbet on each:

Newcastle to WIN vs Arsenal @9.29. Other odds: 8.40. Bet ID: 65da1861c2ff4000016fbe87
Sheffield Utd and Liverpool to WIN vs Wolves and Chelsea respectively @16.11. Other odds: 15.20. Bet ID: 65da18d3c2ff400001449aa3
Units advantage: 198

Running advantage after 71 bets: +7173 (+160)
All-time cumulative: +97,043
Running units after 69 bets (5W|64L): -2592 (-100)

buwaytress

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Atletico, what a dud.

And duds lead us to tonight's pick of the crop. Mainz lost at sea, with their hopes flickering away, travel to supreme Leverkusen, who are on an incredible unbeaten streak. But streaks must end, and they can actually afford to lose tonight, so we hail the spirits of upsets and throw the dice tonight. I cheated a little as I placed this bet with a Liverpool acca to boost it to 135/10 but I'll put the original odds I got.

So much money on Leverkusen odds slipped below 10/1.

100 units at Sportsbet on Mains 05 to WIN vs Bayer Leverkusen @11.50. Other odds: 9.90. Units advantage: 160
Bet ID: 65d4a155c2ff400001a1c444

Running advantage after 69 bets: +7173 (+160)
All-time cumulative: +97,043
Running units after 68 bets (5W|63L): -2492 (-200)

buwaytress

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While we're losing big time this season, it is a nice idea to pour some more fuel over the fire, yes? And there are several options tonight, but let's add in a silly lose money bet on Atletico to come away with a win against Inter. Bookies mark them as decent underdogs, but with Morata back and Griezmann, even Gimenez back playing, I don't see why not? But because we need to catch up, let's be naughty and add Liverpool (tomorrow) to the mix.

200 units on Atletico to WIN vs Inter + Liverpool to WIN vs Luton @6.53. Other odds: 6.30. Units advantage: 46
Bet ID: 65d4a108c2ff40000173a50e

Running advantage after 68 bets: +7013 (+46)
All-time cumulative: +96,883
Running units after 66 bets (5W|61L): -2292 ()

buwaytress

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Cry me a river for Rodri, who stole in and retrieved a point from Chelski. And PSG seem to be benefitting from wantaway Mbappe, oh well =)

Still, Brentford gave plenty of problems to Liverpool, as usual, and despite the huge scoreline, it's important to point out Liverpool scored against the run of play, and capitalised on big mistakes the Bees don't usually make. You know which other team really gets bothered by the way Brentford play? City.

So without further ado,

100 units at Sportsbet on Brentford to WIN vs Man City @16.95. Other odds: 14.00. Units advantage: +295
Bet ID: 65d25e84c2ff4000013facb2

Running advantage after 67 bets: +6967 (+295)
All-time cumulative: +96,837
Running units after 66 bets (5W|61L): -2292 (-200)

buwaytress

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Quote from: KTChampions on February 16, 2024, 02:35:08 PM

Nice bet! I don?t see anything impossible for it to come true - Inter already play in their own league and a match or two doesn?t really mean anything to them. Salernitana still have a theoretical chance of remaining in Serie A, so why not start their rise today Roll Eyes

By the way, congratulations on your 5th winning bet. I hope this is not the last victory this season - the distance is bound to repay the debts Cool

Neither did I, but Inter turned it on, still, as you infer, it's a bet I'd take repeatedly. Thanks for the nice words, half season (less) to go, let's see if I can turn things around with... a very big value bet on Chelsea vs City AND a rare but irresistible Nantes upset against PSG, who'll be worried about Mbappe we hope Wink

Made this bets earlier, so odds may have changed but hey...

100 units each on:

Chelsea to WIN vs Man City @8.26. Other odds: 7.60. Bet ID: 65d0c097c2ff40000172ac8b
Nantes to WIN vs PSG @7.60. Other odds: 7.40. Bet ID: 65d0c109c2ff4000010060ea
Units advantage: +86

Running advantage after 66 bets: +6672 (+86)
All-time cumulative: +96,542
Running units after 64 bets (5W|59L): -2092 (-100)

[/b]

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 16, 2024, 06:37:19 AM

That was a shitty bet, but we shrug it off and turn our eyes instead to an impossible task. Inter to lose at home to the bottom team. I always like these kinds of bet, simply because that narrative has turned out to be true far too often than it should in the big leagues.

Odds are not as good as they should be, but bookies have been adjusting down all these years, but we push on.

Salernitana to WIN vs Inter @19.70. Other odds: 18.50. Units advantage: +120
Bet ID: 65cf3c12c2ff400001edb69b

Running advantage after 64 bets: +6586 (+120)
All-time cumulative: +96,456
Running units after 63 bets (5W|58L): -1992 (-100)

Nice bet! I don’t see anything impossible for it to come true - Inter already play in their own league and a match or two doesn’t really mean anything to them. Salernitana still have a theoretical chance of remaining in Serie A, so why not start their rise today Roll Eyes

By the way, congratulations on your 5th winning bet. I hope this is not the last victory this season - the distance is bound to repay the debts Cool

buwaytress

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That was a shitty bet, but we shrug it off and turn our eyes instead to an impossible task. Inter to lose at home to the bottom team. I always like these kinds of bet, simply because that narrative has turned out to be true far too often than it should in the big leagues.

Odds are not as good as they should be, but bookies have been adjusting down all these years, but we push on.

Salernitana to WIN vs Inter @19.70. Other odds: 18.50. Units advantage: +120
Bet ID: 65cf3c12c2ff400001edb69b

Running advantage after 64 bets: +6586 (+120)
All-time cumulative: +96,456
Running units after 63 bets (5W|58L): -1992 (-100)

buwaytress

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I promise, this isn't about hating Man City, but it's about respecting the fact that a tiny club like Copenhagen have only ever lost twice on home ground in 16 Champions League games. The smarter play is a double chance, but this thread has rarely been smart this season, haha.

So a simple ML we go, plus, they know they have no chance away, so they will look to score. You never know when Haaland/KdB have a double whammy day off too, no?

100 units at Sportsbet on Copenhagen to WIN vs Man City @12.55. Other odds: 12. Units advantage: 55
Bet ID: 65cb3350c2ff400001e4ef26

Running advantage after 63 bets: +6586 (+55)
All-time cumulative: +96,456
Running units after 62 bets (5W|57L): -1892 (-100)

buwaytress

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Quote from: 1miau on February 07, 2024, 06:38:35 PM

Nice one.

If someone told me that teams like Japan, South Korea or Australia will be out and teams like Jordan and Qatar (remember how awful they played for World Cup last year) are competing for the final, I would very likely not believe it.
Not actively following this event, so my impression might be a bit off, considering Jordan also clearly won from a statistics perspective, not just from luck to score a silly goal / bad luck for South Korea to waste many opportunities but Jordan played well and South Korea really struggled.

And now, we even get a final Jordan vs. Qatar. Cheesy

Same. The thing is, even in qualifiers Jordan were their usual inconsistent self, while Qatar were very quickly losing their charm from the last Asia Cup -- just somehow Moez found a way to recapture his form at the right moment.

Jordan found a lot of confidence against a side that was really playing against their strength (Klinsmass effect). Nice win in the end, but shame I wasted it with the huge Liverpool outlay before that.

Everton, though, is our "natural" pick up next against my favourite team to bet against, Citeh. No explanation needed other than Everton are surely better than 10/1?

100 units at Sportsbet on Everton to WIN vs Man City @14.20. Other odds: 13.40. Units advantage: 80
Bet ID: 65c4dee1c2ff4000010ef8c1

Running advantage after 62 bets: +6531 (+80)
All-time cumulative: +96,401
Running units after 61 bets (5W|56L): -1792 (+600)

1miau

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 06, 2024, 11:02:42 AM

100 units at Sportsbet on Jordan to WIN vs South Korea @7.00. Other odds: 6.68. Units advantage: 32
Bet ID: 65c255fbc2ff4000017c96c7

Running advantage after 61 bets: +6451 (+32)
All-time cumulative: +96,321
Running units after 60 bets (4W|56L): -2392 (-500)

Nice one.

If someone told me that teams like Japan, South Korea or Australia will be out and teams like Jordan and Qatar (remember how awful they played for World Cup last year) are competing for the final, I would very likely not believe it.
Not actively following this event, so my impression might be a bit off, considering Jordan also clearly won from a statistics perspective, not just from luck to score a silly goal / bad luck for South Korea to waste many opportunities but Jordan played well and South Korea really struggled.

And now, we even get a final Jordan vs. Qatar. Cheesy

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Quote from: Trofo on February 06, 2024, 11:36:36 AM

Very smart play, seen that same stats on half time and was thinking the same. Unfortunately all my money was already tied so I did not pull the trigger this time around.

Jordan 2:0 up but considering how Korea comes alive after min 90, maybe a cash out towards the end of the game?

Yeah, nice win and the second half was almost like first half except final 10 minutes when South Korea looked slightly more dangerous. AFC edition this time has rewarded all the bold teams. Jordan, Tajikistan, especially, all playing like Morocco in WC. I should note that South Korea almost losing to Malaysia was a sign of things to come. I expected Msia to get thrashed but they outplayed the Koreans more than they deserved. Thailand and Indonesia also displayed some brave football, but quality was just lacking.

Qatar is the underdog today, btw, match already underway and the only thing preventing me from adding them to this thread (I have a freebet on them) is the poor-value 5/1 odds -- if it gets to HT on a draw and Qatar has more chances than Iran (and equalise the early goal haha), I would definitely take 5/1. But that's not going to be posted in this thread unless it's another 7/1 -- which bookies won't adjust, I'm sure, judging from yesterday's experience.

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Quote from: buwaytress on February 06, 2024, 11:02:42 AM

Now I said to stay away for a while but you've to see the Jordan-S Korea match -- now at half time -- to understand why one simply has to follow the tide. 5 saves from the Korean keeper, while his team has managed zero shots. Media has accused Klinsmann of turning S Korea into a zombie team with their tepid performances but I know he feels his team has the best clinical shooters for penalties and doesn't want them to tire like the Japanese.

But Jordan need to simply keep the pressure on and nick a goal. HT odds are 7/1 -- not reflective of the play, so I'm taking it.

Very smart play, seen that same stats on half time and was thinking the same. Unfortunately all my money was already tied so I did not pull the trigger this time around.

Jordan 2:0 up but considering how Korea comes alive after min 90, maybe a cash out towards the end of the game?

buwaytress

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Now I said to stay away for a while but you've to see the Jordan-S Korea match -- now at half time -- to understand why one simply has to follow the tide. 5 saves from the Korean keeper, while his team has managed zero shots. Media has accused Klinsmann of turning S Korea into a zombie team with their tepid performances but I know he feels his team has the best clinical shooters for penalties and doesn't want them to tire like the Japanese.

But Jordan need to simply keep the pressure on and nick a goal. HT odds are 7/1 -- not reflective of the play, so I'm taking it.

100 units at Sportsbet on Jordan to WIN vs South Korea @7.00. Other odds: 6.68. Units advantage: 32
Bet ID: 65c255fbc2ff4000017c96c7

Running advantage after 61 bets: +6451 (+32)
All-time cumulative: +96,321
Running units after 60 bets (4W|56L): -2392 (-500)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 4. (Read 39991 times)