Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 4.

buwaytress

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^ That didn't happen. Was a close one though, 1-1 most of the way with both teams unafraid to try claim qualification. Weekend approaches and I'm loading up on a big bet but let's see if we can kick it off with a Moaco upset in Paris... padded with a 12/10 Bayern win.

100 units at Sportsbet on Monaco + Bayern to win vs PSG/Cologne @8.95. Other odds: 8.50. Units advantage: 45

Running advantage after 38 bets: +3509 (+45)
All-time cumulative: +93,369
Running units after 37 bets (3W|34L): -1112 (-100)

buwaytress

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Quote from: Trofo on November 19, 2023, 02:26:50 PM

That's what you get for going against Croatia, serves you right

Heh, it does indeed. I don't rate Baltic teams but I was being cheeky about Crotia -- and paid the price.

Speaking of being cheeky, here's another bet against a home favourite, but this actually makes sense to me after some impressive performances from Kazakh against Finland and N Ireland. They will risk it all and I think they can edge it.

100 units on Kazakhstan to WIN vs Slovenia @9.58. Other odds: 9.10. Units advantage: 48

Running advantage after 37 bets: +3464 (+48)
All-time cumulative: +93,324
Running units after 36 bets (3W|33L): -1012 (-100)

Trofo

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Quote from: buwaytress on November 18, 2023, 11:03:45 AM

Not sure why I forgot to post here when resuming betting this week but I hit 2 pretty decent underdog bets. No harm, I need a losing season, don't I? Wink

Latvia was my pick in the last round of EURO -- they almost had Turkey by the balls despite playing with ten men. An even harder test awaits tonight but I wonder if Croatia is up for it?

That's what you get for going against Croatia, serves you right

Croatia was bad in last international slot cause we missed all our first choice attackers, now we got some back and we looked better. Still not good, but Latvia played criminally bad and we could have won that one with bigger margin.

buwaytress

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Not sure why I forgot to post here when resuming betting this week but I hit 2 pretty decent underdog bets. No harm, I need a losing season, don't I? Wink

Latvia was my pick in the last round of EURO -- they almost had Turkey by the balls despite playing with ten men. An even harder test awaits tonight but I wonder if Croatia is up for it?

100 units at Sportsbet on Latvia to WIN vs Croatia @20.80. Other odds: 19.50. Unit advantage: 130

Running advantage after 36 bets: +3416 (+130)
All-time cumulative: +93,276
Running units after 35 bets (3W|32L): -912 (-200)

buwaytress

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^ I think it was okay too, but the timing wasn't great and he should have been punished, simple. You're right of course, I love United like this. I was very sad when Ole left, and I genuinely feared what ETH might do... but thankfully, the deeper issues never got resolved and that club is as badly run as ever.

On that subject, United is my easy pick, but I'm wondering if we could catch Arsenal at home with some tricky injuries and manager frustration creeping up? Surely 17/1 is too good to pass on Burnley?

100 units each at Sportsbet on:
Burnley to WIN vs Arsenal @16.40. Other odds: 17/1 (I missed out). Bet ID: 6543af544149c60001ffa2bc
Luton to WIN vs United @10.68. Other odds: 9.90. Bet ID: 654e69f54149c600015ed1a7
Units advantage: 78-60=18

Running advantage after 35 bets: +3286 (+18)
All-time cumulative: +93,146
Running units after 33 bets (3W|30L): -712 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on November 09, 2023, 08:52:44 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on November 09, 2023, 06:03:17 AM

As a result, United implemented an even more interesting option - they lost to Copenhagen in the Champions League and seem to be saying goodbye to this tournament Grin

I'm surprised at how resilient he is - any other coach would have been fired for half of these failures.
It seems that Arsenal had no problems at all with Sevilla (which made their only shot on target in stoppage time). They are terrible in both tournaments, so perhaps the odds for their victory of less than 10 should be considered unprofitable?

Sigh, yes, but 4/1 odds on Kopenhagn didn't attract me enough for betting, unfortunately. The smart bet now would be an acca on them to win their next two games vs Galatasaray and Bayern, but no markets yet for the latter game so I will do this manually Wink

I actually think TH is good, but I've said before the real problem is to undo the culture of "it's ok to be average" at the club. Rashford had his manager backing him throughout his horrid start but then he goes clubbing after losing the derby? I think he doesn't have the full team backing, which is a shame.

Hmmm... You have a peculiar view on betting, but I didn’t think that you had the same view on coaches Wink

Maybe as a Liverpool fan you just like United's results under Ten Hag? Cheesy

I evaluate Ten Hag completely differently, but I write about this everywhere so I won’t repeat myself.
Yes, I heard about this situation with Rashford, but I didn’t attach much importance to it since it seemed to be not a club get-together, but a birthday in the family circle. But to be consistent, Ten Hag should have punished Rashford anyway.

buwaytress

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Quote from: KTChampions on November 09, 2023, 06:03:17 AM

As a result, United implemented an even more interesting option - they lost to Copenhagen in the Champions League and seem to be saying goodbye to this tournament Grin

I'm surprised at how resilient he is - any other coach would have been fired for half of these failures.
It seems that Arsenal had no problems at all with Sevilla (which made their only shot on target in stoppage time). They are terrible in both tournaments, so perhaps the odds for their victory of less than 10 should be considered unprofitable?

Sigh, yes, but 4/1 odds on Kopenhagn didn't attract me enough for betting, unfortunately. The smart bet now would be an acca on them to win their next two games vs Galatasaray and Bayern, but no markets yet for the latter game so I will do this manually Wink

I actually think TH is good, but I've said before the real problem is to undo the culture of "it's ok to be average" at the club. Rashford had his manager backing him throughout his horrid start but then he goes clubbing after losing the derby? I think he doesn't have the full team backing, which is a shame.

Pity about Sevilla, I think they're better than this really, it's not characteristic at all.

Simple Europa tie tonight, 2nd in Austrian League vs 5th in Serie A. Worth it?

100 units at Sportsbet on Sturm Graz to WIN vs Atalanta @10.02. Other odds: 9.60. Units advantage: 42

Running advantage after 33 bets: +3268 (+42)
All-time cumulative: +93,128
Running units after 32 bets (3W|29L): -612 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on November 08, 2023, 07:02:11 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on November 03, 2023, 03:22:02 PM

With such abysmal play and record results (worst start in 60 years and given the date United were founded there's a chance we'll see the record extend back into the 19th century) you might consider betting on a -1 or even -2 goal handicap against United. If City, Newcastle, Brighton and other clubs can beat United big, then why not Fulham? At least sometimes that's what interests you.

Agree, but Fulham at most would have won 1-0, some of the league's worst finishing I saw on that game -- a draw would have been the forest result.
~

As a result, United implemented an even more interesting option - they lost to Copenhagen in the Champions League and seem to be saying goodbye to this tournament Grin

I'm surprised at how resilient he is - any other coach would have been fired for half of these failures.
It seems that Arsenal had no problems at all with Sevilla (which made their only shot on target in stoppage time). They are terrible in both tournaments, so perhaps the odds for their victory of less than 10 should be considered unprofitable?

buwaytress

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Quote from: KTChampions on November 03, 2023, 03:22:02 PM

With such abysmal play and record results (worst start in 60 years and given the date United were founded there's a chance we'll see the record extend back into the 19th century) you might consider betting on a -1 or even -2 goal handicap against United. If City, Newcastle, Brighton and other clubs can beat United big, then why not Fulham? At least sometimes that's what interests you.

Agree, but Fulham at most would have won 1-0, some of the league's worst finishing I saw on that game -- a draw would have been the forest result.

Today I go for a simple Arsenal upset. They are still a good team, but play as if they're on the ropes. Didn't particularly deserve to lose their last game so will be fired up to make amends but I suspect Sevilla will be really problematic to break open, leading to frustration, which always upsets the Gunners and leaves them vulnerable to counters.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sevilla to WIN vs Arsenal @9.80. Other odds: 9.5. Units advantage: 30.
Bet ID: 654b4de54149c6000186f673

Running advantage after 32 bets: +3226 (+30)
All-time cumulative: +93,086
Running units after 31 bets (3W|28L): -512 (-100)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on November 03, 2023, 02:32:30 PM

1-0 and we lost the bet, but Bahia were lucky not to lose as it turned out, outshot and out-chanced, but not outscored. Lovely string of losses but that doesn't put us off, does it?

More misery for United at Craven Cottage, and a surprise win for BVB in Der Klassiker are my acca for the weekend -- follow a streak and break another?

100 units on Fulham and BVB to WIN @11.68 (the odds aren't wrong, United are that bad). Other odds: 11.55. Units advantage: 13

Running advantage after 31 bets: +3196 (+36)
All-time cumulative: +93,056
Running units after 30 bets (3W|27L): -412 (-100)

With such abysmal play and record results (worst start in 60 years and given the date United were founded there's a chance we'll see the record extend back into the 19th century) you might consider betting on a -1 or even -2 goal handicap against United. If City, Newcastle, Brighton and other clubs can beat United big, then why not Fulham? At least sometimes that's what interests you.

buwaytress

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1-0 and we lost the bet, but Bahia were lucky not to lose as it turned out, outshot and out-chanced, but not outscored. Lovely string of losses but that doesn't put us off, does it?

More misery for United at Craven Cottage, and a surprise win for BVB in Der Klassiker are my acca for the weekend -- follow a streak and break another?

100 units on Fulham and BVB to WIN @11.68 (the odds aren't wrong, United are that bad). Other odds: 11.55. Units advantage: 13

Running advantage after 31 bets: +3196 (+36)
All-time cumulative: +93,056
Running units after 30 bets (3W|27L): -412 (-100)

buwaytress

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A bit of a close match, reflected by the scoreline, but I guess post-summer2023 Freiburg is not pre-summer Freiburg after all. We return to Brasil for some goodfeel pinings, that was the scene of our last non-continental away win, and I think there's value when 8th place takes on 15th place... and odds are inflated as is the case today with Fluminense taking on Bahia. I understand why they're the underdogs as they have Copa Libertadores final on Sunday but that's no reason to not win tonight to build momentum, no?

100 units on Fluminense to WIN vs Bahia @8.26. Other odds: 7.90. Units advantage: 36

Running advantage after 30 bets: +3196 (+36)
All-time cumulative: +93,056
Running units after 29 bets (3W|26L): -312 (-100)

buwaytress

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Funny Ajax... I know they're shit but I thought experience would matter. Came in a bit too late to suggest my main ticket today which would have been a United win vs City, parlayed with a Liverpool HT win to get almost 8/1 -- game already started so we'll go instead with a Freiburg upset away at high-flying Leverkusen. It's not as bad as the bookies suggest, surely?

100 units at Sportsbet on Freiburg to WIN vs Leverkusen @9.80. Other odds: 9.70. Units advantage: 10.
Bet ID: 653e2b284149c6000132183d

Running advantage after 29 bets: +3160 (+10)
All-time cumulative: +93,020
Running units after 28 bets (3W|25L): -212 (-100)

buwaytress

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Yes Dortmund... very big ouch Milan...

Right, must be an acca bug and I rarely recommend this anymore but I just feel the risk factor is fun tonight, so I'm going to suggest a Liverpool pad to up the odds of an Ajax upset by 20%. What? Ajax winning will be an upset against Brighton? How times have changed hmm?

100 units at Sportsbet on Ajax and Liverpool to WIN @11.37. Other odds: 11.20. Units advantage: 17

Running advantage after 28 bets: +3150 (+17)
All-time cumulative: +93,010
Running units after 27 bets (3W|24L): -112 (-100)

buwaytress

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Ah, it was not to be, was it? But for Onana being actually decent last night (even without his pen save), it would be a tune tonight.

Now I know accas aren't really where I do well and you get incredible value on BVB alone at Sportsbet (superboost on all Newastle games, hey) but I feel like we can get some away team magic tonight also on Milan. I honestly thin 5/1 for both is a steal, so why not pick both?

100 units at Sportsbet on BVB and Milan to WIN @29.75. Other odds: 25
Units advantage: 475

Running advantage after 27 bets: +3133 (+475)
All-time cumulative: +92,993
Running units after 26 bets (3W|23L): -12 (-200)

buwaytress

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So after those two losses on Strasbourg and Sheffield (but United still won playing like crap, pity the fans who have to pay top sterling to watch their team play like that week in, week out), we still have the United loss to hope for vs Copenhagen (check above for the Oct 17th bet). It's still almost 10/1!

Let's pretend Salzburg are a shadow of themselves last season and bet on them tonight to score a win at San Siro. Overvalued Inter, psht!

100 units at Sportsbet on Salzburg to WIN vs Inter @12.55. Other odds: 11.80. Units advantage: 75

Running advantage after 26 bets: +2658 (+75)
All-time cumulative: +92,518
Running units after 24 bets (3W|21L): +188 (-200)

buwaytress

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Well, the Portuguese pick above actually didn't turn out too badly after all. FT 0-0 so we lost but the tie was extremely balanced all the way til 75th minute. Equal shots on goal and off, equal corners, equal cards and even more or less equal possession. No idea about actual quality of play, would be surprised if anyone found a stream but I think that vindicated the pick.

United were natural picks today but I ignored Brighton vs City (I don't like the seagulls these days) and shooed-in Blades, while not forgetting to slip in one against PSG, kicking off in a few minutes but live might even be better. Two bets then, both at Sportsbet:

100 units on Sheffield Utd to WIN vs Man Utd @7.82. Other odds: 7.6. Bet ID: 653136cb4149c6000142d2b5
100 units on Strasbourg to WIN vs PSG @16.40 Other odds: 15 Bet ID: 6533dbe64149c60001dc8c43
Total units advantage: 162

That puts us up 3 bets pending...

Running advantage after 25 bets: +2583 (+162)
All-time cumulative: +92,443
Running units after 22 bets (3W|19L): +388 (-100)

buwaytress

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Quote from: KTChampions on October 19, 2023, 03:02:36 PM

As for United, it's quite funny to see Copenhagen's odds like this away. Currently the quotes are as follows:

1.42 - 4.90 - 7.20

How far United have fallen! +42% for winning the home game against Copenhagen, what? Grin

I remember Chelsea over 2/1 to beat... Burnley, Fulham! They and United (PSG also) are frankly just shameful embarrassments to football. Even Liverpool in terrible seasons would still be hot favourites (which is problematic as a fan haha).

I'm trying out something a bit out of my comfort zone here but I feel like there's value in a Portuguese cup tie tonight. The favourite is Liga B mid-tabler but the away team, a league below, actually reached a last cup final while being champion of their promotion group, so to me, they are qualitatively equal.

2 games now pending.

100 units at Sportsbet on SC Vianense to WIN vs Santa Clara Azores @10.90 Other odds: 10
Units advantage: 90

Running advantage after 23 bets: +2421 (+90)
All-time cumulative: +92,281
Running units after 21 bets (3W|18L): +488 (+704)

KTChampions

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Quote from: buwaytress on October 18, 2023, 09:04:03 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on October 17, 2023, 01:56:41 PM

Great pick! Gratz Cool

To be honest, it would never have occurred to me to place this bet (in my opinion, the odds were too small for an away game). I’m probably biased towards teams from Central Asia, but it seems to me that they play weakly in away games, but at home they are stronger than average. But today Zainutdinov broke my stereotypes Grin

I've been hitting these "expanded UEFA" teams since Nations League started with new slits for EURO qualifications. Back in the day Georgia, Armenia, Azer, Kazakh easily 15/1+ but now they are getting adjustments. At the same time, Scandinavian teams are getting weaker IMO, while they are still seen as firm favourites. The same goes for club matches. Simple H2H stats prove the odds don't match results.

Enjoy these value odds while they last.

My next pick is... surprise, surprise, United to lose again in UCL at Old Trafford. I'll probably find a pick or two in between but this is too good to pass with current odds:

100 units at Sportsbet on Kopenhagn to WIN vs Man Utd @10.24. Other odds: 8.80
Units advantage: 144
Bet ID: 6525b24e4149c6000117ebf8

Running advantage after 22 bets: +2331 (+144)
All-time cumulative: +92,191
Running units after 21 bets (3W|18L): +488 (+704)

Yes, I remember how the odds of these teams being less than 10 was perceived as Huh? Therefore, it is now quite difficult to switch to even lower odds.
As for United, it's quite funny to see Copenhagen's odds like this away. Currently the quotes are as follows:

1.42 - 4.90 - 7.20

How far United have fallen! +42% for winning the home game against Copenhagen, what? Grin

buwaytress

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Quote from: KTChampions on October 17, 2023, 01:56:41 PM

Great pick! Gratz Cool

To be honest, it would never have occurred to me to place this bet (in my opinion, the odds were too small for an away game). I’m probably biased towards teams from Central Asia, but it seems to me that they play weakly in away games, but at home they are stronger than average. But today Zainutdinov broke my stereotypes Grin

I've been hitting these "expanded UEFA" teams since Nations League started with new slits for EURO qualifications. Back in the day Georgia, Armenia, Azer, Kazakh easily 15/1+ but now they are getting adjustments. At the same time, Scandinavian teams are getting weaker IMO, while they are still seen as firm favourites. The same goes for club matches. Simple H2H stats prove the odds don't match results.

Enjoy these value odds while they last.

My next pick is... surprise, surprise, United to lose again in UCL at Old Trafford. I'll probably find a pick or two in between but this is too good to pass with current odds:

100 units at Sportsbet on Kopenhagn to WIN vs Man Utd @10.24. Other odds: 8.80
Units advantage: 144
Bet ID: 6525b24e4149c6000117ebf8

Running advantage after 22 bets: +2331 (+144)
All-time cumulative: +92,191
Running units after 21 bets (3W|18L): +488 (+704)

Topic: Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +36315 units - page 4. (Read 38849 times)