Topic: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes - page 4. (Read 10120 times)

Yeah, those stories are fun to read or watch.

For example, there is an Australian millionaire that made all his money from gambling.

His name is David Walsh and is now an art collector. He created a huge museum in Hobart, Tasmania. He called it MONA, Museum of Old and New Art.

I read his biography the other day, quite interesting character.

But even he says that he was just lucky.

wow, I didn't know that
quite interesting
as some say, the house always win, but I like these movies and stories of people who can find an edge and win big over the house too, be it by luck or by finding an edge...

Yes, and what some people forget is that casinos have special rules such as maximum bets, that basically allows them to have some mechanism to prepare for any issues.

If they detect there's something wrong for them, they would immediately stop the bets, or change the odds of the game.

They control the odds, and they always make them in their favor.

So far I haven't really been able to see any gamblers who have successfully won every bet or have very big chance of winning every bet because they use breakthroughs developed by AI.
I know that some gamblers still believe that AI is an intelligent technology that has many uses for its users and they think that AI is truly superior intelligence, but they forget that AI is just kind of human-made system.
I myself always think that whatever is created by humans, no matter how great it is and what advantages it has, there will always be something that is much smarter and much superior, one of which is the working system that gambling sites have.
Gambling sites are built as businesses and of course they have various methods or have quite lot of great people who can always outperform whatever intelligence the gambler uses to increase their chances of winning, the casino will always be ahead of the gamblers.
If gamblers succeed in doing this then I sure many gambling sites will go bankrupt because their customers win more, but in reality there is nothing that perfect in the struggle.
The algorithms and how gambling works are not as easy as one might imagine, everything has been designed so complicatedly to make it difficult for gamblers to win every bet.
I think believing in your own abilities will be much better and increase your self-confidence, making it possible to be able to make luck more often.

The thing is that casinos also have access to these AI models, so they will adjust their odds accordingly.

I don't think there will be any major breakthrough using AI to win more than what the odds tell you using AI.

It's just a math model in the end, and I'm sure casinos are even using some margins as well to be sure they don't lose.

AI can actually get prediction gurus and Tipster jobless as they can analyze and process large amount of data and create a model with backtesting.
They have no emotion or bias and they don't miss any things. They have already been in use both on making plans on game or predicting the game and overall results. Their use is on increase because of their relative success. And to add to that, they are still in their early phase, they can do wonders as the models mature.
The place where the AI might still lose is common understanding and new type of development of events that has larger effect that can skew the model.

Odds are exactly the same if the numbers are randomly given to you or you choose them.

Yes, you can't control other people's numbers.

All that I'm saying is that there is a large number of people that use dates as source for their numbers, therefore numbers higher than 31 have less chances of sharing the prize if you win.

The odds of winning are always the same.

yes, AI won't be fool proof
but your short comment sparked a thought here
AI is probably useful for helping you with data analysis
it won't give guaranteed results or anything like that but it's usually better than humans in analysis a lot of data.

Yes, you're right.

There's no way to increase your luck, all that I'm saying is that in games like lotto and similar, you might end up in a situation where your lucky numbers are shared with other people, so if you win, you have to share the prize.

But if your numbers are other numbers that are not usually played (they have the same chances of winning though), you will end up in a situation that is a bit less likely to have to share your prize if you win, because less people play those numbers.

As I mentioned, your odds to win are still the same.

but... this wouldn't make your luck better if your numbers are never choosen, at the end of the day I don't really think it's worth to consider if other people are betting in the same numbers as you or not, you have no way to control it...
makes sense?

An event can depend on the past, but most gambling events are designed so that they are independent of the past.

For example, getting a number six on a dice now is independent of how many times the dice has been thrown before, and how many sixes have appeared so far. The odds of getting a six next is still 1/6.

Now, there are real world circumstances that you might use to your advantage.

For example, lotto numbers or similar, where you have to pick numbers from a pool. Usually people go with dates, so numbers between 1 and 31. Any higher number will have slightly less people playing them, so you will have slightly less chances of sharing your prize if you happen to win.

Note that the odds for each number is still the same though, a 32 is as possible to be drawn as a 31, but as I mentioned before slightly more people will choose those lower ones.

With things like that you can make your luck a bit better.

There I can say many things, because the AI that Manages to predict in 100% random systems would be in the hands of a power and not of technology, because the fact of predicting like this using mathematics, which for me is always the right thing to do, Well, I would be creating something more than an AI, it is like a being that is above humans and above technology, and there is a danger that it will fall into the hands of a terrorist or something like that, because something like that has to do With the psychic part and I don't know , but to make a prodigy aware of something like that, and it would be another being and it is even somewhat scary, because you can make many Simulations of wars and things like that.

I have seen that there are many AIs, but it seems to me that it is like a dictionary, or that it is like searching on Google, I have not seen anything that Surprises me , but technology advances and advances and means that it can generate many good and progress, Everything is allowed I think.

depends if the system is true random or not
if it's random than past events doesn't matter
there is the chance that a true random system returns the same result every time
and (please mathematicians correct me if I'm wrong) this chance is not smaller than any other outcome

Well, there are things that you might know that give you a bit of an advantage.

For example, try avoiding numbers lower than 31. This is because many people choose these numbers based on their birthday, so if you win, there will probably more people to share the price with.

Less people choose higher numbers, so go for those.

I don't know whether this is also happening in other countries, but it made me think about this topic a news I read the other day which said that that the AI had guessed the number that will be luckiest the national Christmas lottery, and that it ran out in a matter of just a few minutes. I'm very curious to see if it is right, and I would buy myself one of these tickets if it was still possible, but to be honest I don't think it will be able to guess correctly the lucky digits based on past performance. Probability doesn't work like that, until I'm proven wrong at least.

Yes, that only gives you the upperhand that you are having a source that can give you some predictions whether they'll be good or not.

Or trust your own instinct and wait for your own luck to come. The interesting part of this technology is like everyone is optimistic that it's going to take over everything even in the gambling industry.

For the casinos, it's gonna be useful to automate their processes but as an individual gambler, we might be quite far into looking into that productivity and help with our bets.

But that's the whole thing. An AI might be able to give you better analytics than what you can come up with.

For example, if you know nothing about a sport, an AI can give you a list of the best teams. That's already better than your knowledge at that point.

Now, if you know a lot about some sport, you might be able to train an AI with your (and possibly others) knowledge. And then the AI will be able to mix it all up and give you a reasonable outcome.

You then always have to face the casino odds though, which usually are against you.

It will be a year since this thread was created but until now no one who relies on or tested AI has a positive or accurate results it just proved that AI is not highly accurate to use in gambling betting, but AI is a big help in other sectors but not on gambling sectors there's too many uncertainty compared on other sectors where the users can grasp the facts.
When it comes to gambling there are no proven facts everything is dynamic here one athlete or team will perform better in one match but there's no guarantee that he can perform the same the next match.

Although Al is very popular instrument right now, but it still doesn't give you win guarantee. Anyway, it's better to rely on your own analytics.

[quote author=Lucasgabd
~snip~
this is for sure
I read a comparison this days, like a small championship where a contractor would decide who to contract

a senior engineer doing coding from scratch
and a junior or slightly better than junior using AI tools

in the end of the day the junior was chosen because he could deliver much faster (like 3 weeks instead of 6 months, something like that) even though it was a solution that the contactor would have a bit less customization power, being able to ship fast changed everything.
[/quote]

Yeah, I guess it also depends on the maturity of the application or conpany.

If it is for MVP creation, then sure. But if the product is mature, then the use of AI might be different.

It can be beneficial in many scenarios