[POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes - page 6.

nullama

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Quote from: OgNasty on November 15, 2023, 01:14:21 PM

~snip~
I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before someone creates and AI bot that can sit around making thousands of bets per day and winning at a rate slightly higher than the average gambler. I still don’t think AI can beat the odds over a casino in the long run, but I imagine it could probably bet a massive amount of money with a ton of bets to make gamblers inflate their amount bet numbers like never before.

In a way this has already happened, in the stock exchange. It's called High Frequency Trading (HFT), and it's been happening since more than a decade or two already.

Basically the bots try to find a good opportunity and they buy or sell stocks, all of this in milliseconds. There's no way a human can compete with this.

In terms of betting, I guess most casinos have slower interfaces so I don't think they provide a similar infrastructure like the stock exchange.

Lucasgabd

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Quote from: OgNasty on November 15, 2023, 01:14:21 PM

Quote from: nullama on November 14, 2023, 09:09:59 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 14, 2023, 05:55:20 PM

~snip~

maybe in the future with AI models advancing too things will change
I'm really curious for the next decades
we'll see many interesting things for sure.

any other ideas on how AI may affect the future of betting?

Well, one thing that comes to mind is speed.

Since an AI can process information much faster than the human mind, maybe there would be bets in a faster time-scales than what we can perceive.

Machines are able to uncover things that we can't see, so it's natural to see a progression towards betting on those things as well.

I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before someone creates and AI bot that can sit around making thousands of bets per day and winning at a rate slightly higher than the average gambler. I still don’t think AI can beat the odds over a casino in the long run, but I imagine it could probably bet a massive amount of money with a ton of bets to make gamblers inflate their amount bet numbers like never before.

what is the average gambler winrate?
not sure if this matter so much tbh

there are people building bots and data-based models for gambling with success win rates, right now
we don't need a futuristic AI for that, it's already happening

cabron

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Quote from: OgNasty on November 15, 2023, 01:14:21 PM

Quote from: nullama on November 14, 2023, 09:09:59 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 14, 2023, 05:55:20 PM

~snip~

maybe in the future with AI models advancing too things will change
I'm really curious for the next decades
we'll see many interesting things for sure.

any other ideas on how AI may affect the future of betting?

Well, one thing that comes to mind is speed.

Since an AI can process information much faster than the human mind, maybe there would be bets in a faster time-scales than what we can perceive.

Machines are able to uncover things that we can't see, so it's natural to see a progression towards betting on those things as well.

I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before someone creates and AI bot that can sit around making thousands of bets per day and winning at a rate slightly higher than the average gambler. I still don’t think AI can beat the odds over a casino in the long run, but I imagine it could probably bet a massive amount of money with a ton of bets to make gamblers inflate their amount bet numbers like never before.

It's possible only if it's the bookies who will create the AI. All they need to do is just collect the information of the sharpest bettors in their platform and then allow the AI to grab that information to present their picks to the public. But I don't think they are willing to do this for it's gonna be their loss.

So far the bookies are presenting already their fave team, more than likely they are the ones who always win but to pinpoint exactly how to win thru the odds, its the hardest.

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Quote from: nullama on November 14, 2023, 09:09:59 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 14, 2023, 05:55:20 PM

~snip~

maybe in the future with AI models advancing too things will change
I'm really curious for the next decades
we'll see many interesting things for sure.

any other ideas on how AI may affect the future of betting?

Well, one thing that comes to mind is speed.

Since an AI can process information much faster than the human mind, maybe there would be bets in a faster time-scales than what we can perceive.

Machines are able to uncover things that we can't see, so it's natural to see a progression towards betting on those things as well.

I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before someone creates and AI bot that can sit around making thousands of bets per day and winning at a rate slightly higher than the average gambler. I still don’t think AI can beat the odds over a casino in the long run, but I imagine it could probably bet a massive amount of money with a ton of bets to make gamblers inflate their amount bet numbers like never before.

Lucasgabd

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Quote from: nullama on November 14, 2023, 09:09:59 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 14, 2023, 05:55:20 PM

~snip~

maybe in the future with AI models advancing too things will change
I'm really curious for the next decades
we'll see many interesting things for sure.

any other ideas on how AI may affect the future of betting?

Well, one thing that comes to mind is speed.

Since an AI can process information much faster than the human mind, maybe there would be bets in a faster time-scales than what we can perceive.

Machines are able to uncover things that we can't see, so it's natural to see a progression towards betting on those things as well.

that's interesting
supposing you have a tested model that gets 70% win rate but is limited by your analysis and time you could scale this strong by using AI and programming

Quote from: Betwrong on November 14, 2023, 11:35:30 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 08, 2023, 08:49:00 AM

Quote from: dansus021 on October 26, 2023, 08:45:26 PM

To be honest, I'm generating the price of bitcoin or any kind of random number using the OpenAi chatGPT right now. Gamble cant be predicted especially with random numbers or bitcoin price I mean precisely. Si Usually I just talk to chat gpt and tell them to generate number in range between xx to xx. Till this date I never won but it is fun to chat with an AI hahahha

understanding that creation of phrases and numbers using an statistical model for the best possible response is different than predicting the future is a must

this article on how LLMs work is quite good to grasp the basics
What Is ChatGPT Doing … and Why Does It Work?

still a funny game, as you mentioned, but probably won't be so accurate, if it gets it right it'll be more due to luck than due to skill, kind like an oracle, maybe

Thank you for the link! Hope such a long article will help us understand how this machine works. There are 53 comments after the article and I think it's important to read them too to understand it even better. I think I'll do that.

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 08, 2023, 08:49:00 AM

still a funny game, as you mentioned, but probably won't be so accurate, if it gets it right it'll be more due to luck than due to skill, kind like an oracle, maybe

It gets right many things, but the outcomes of the sport events isn't one of them. Maybe the article will help me understand the theory behind it, but in practice I tried many times and AI was right only once in a dozen tries, so, as you said, due to luck, I guess.

you're welcome
the article is great and helped me understand LLMs better even though some things go beyoned my comprehension

LLMs won't work well to predict game results because as mentioned they don't calculate probabilities of future stuff that we don't know about, they use statistics to give you the best phrases and order of words.

Betwrong

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Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 08, 2023, 08:49:00 AM

Quote from: dansus021 on October 26, 2023, 08:45:26 PM

To be honest, I'm generating the price of bitcoin or any kind of random number using the OpenAi chatGPT right now. Gamble cant be predicted especially with random numbers or bitcoin price I mean precisely. Si Usually I just talk to chat gpt and tell them to generate number in range between xx to xx. Till this date I never won but it is fun to chat with an AI hahahha

understanding that creation of phrases and numbers using an statistical model for the best possible response is different than predicting the future is a must

this article on how LLMs work is quite good to grasp the basics
What Is ChatGPT Doing … and Why Does It Work?

still a funny game, as you mentioned, but probably won't be so accurate, if it gets it right it'll be more due to luck than due to skill, kind like an oracle, maybe

Thank you for the link! Hope such a long article will help us understand how this machine works. There are 53 comments after the article and I think it's important to read them too to understand it even better. I think I'll do that.

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 08, 2023, 08:49:00 AM

still a funny game, as you mentioned, but probably won't be so accurate, if it gets it right it'll be more due to luck than due to skill, kind like an oracle, maybe

It gets right many things, but the outcomes of the sport events isn't one of them. Maybe the article will help me understand the theory behind it, but in practice I tried many times and AI was right only once in a dozen tries, so, as you said, due to luck, I guess.

boyptc

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Quote from: nullama on November 14, 2023, 09:09:59 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 14, 2023, 05:55:20 PM

~snip~

maybe in the future with AI models advancing too things will change
I'm really curious for the next decades
we'll see many interesting things for sure.

any other ideas on how AI may affect the future of betting?

Well, one thing that comes to mind is speed.

Since an AI can process information much faster than the human mind, maybe there would be bets in a faster time-scales than what we can perceive.

Machines are able to uncover things that we can't see, so it's natural to see a progression towards betting on those things as well.

That's what AIs can do, they're quick in processing information and data gathering as long as it can be found on the web.

What we are not going to see is that the actual results and these predictions will just be based on the data that they can gather.

In short, they can be like us that can predict with basis but it can't do prediction like what we do like that we're just guessing.

nullama

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Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 14, 2023, 05:55:20 PM

~snip~

maybe in the future with AI models advancing too things will change
I'm really curious for the next decades
we'll see many interesting things for sure.

any other ideas on how AI may affect the future of betting?

Well, one thing that comes to mind is speed.

Since an AI can process information much faster than the human mind, maybe there would be bets in a faster time-scales than what we can perceive.

Machines are able to uncover things that we can't see, so it's natural to see a progression towards betting on those things as well.

Lucasgabd

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Quote from: nullama on November 08, 2023, 07:12:50 PM

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 08, 2023, 08:49:00 AM

~snip~
understanding that creation of phrases and numbers using an statistical model for the best possible response is different than predicting the future is a must

this article on how LLMs work is quite good to grasp the basics
What Is ChatGPT Doing … and Why Does It Work?

still a funny game, as you mentioned, but probably won't be so accurate, if it gets it right it'll be more due to luck than due to skill, kind like an oracle, maybe

Yes, you are right.

The thing is that creating text like that basically tricks the brain into assuming that an intelligent entity wrote that. But it is just based on previous knowledge, not new insights.

I wonder if we somehow peaked in terms of generation of content, as AI based content will start using AI based content in their datasets for training, and that kind of loop usually ends up in worse outcomes.

Still, I think AI can be used to generate a good enough prediction.

maybe in the future with AI models advancing too things will change
I'm really curious for the next decades
we'll see many interesting things for sure.

any other ideas on how AI may affect the future of betting?

nullama

hero member

Activity: 1008

Merit: 960

Quote from: Lucasgabd on November 08, 2023, 08:49:00 AM

~snip~
understanding that creation of phrases and numbers using an statistical model for the best possible response is different than predicting the future is a must

this article on how LLMs work is quite good to grasp the basics
What Is ChatGPT Doing … and Why Does It Work?

still a funny game, as you mentioned, but probably won't be so accurate, if it gets it right it'll be more due to luck than due to skill, kind like an oracle, maybe

Yes, you are right.

The thing is that creating text like that basically tricks the brain into assuming that an intelligent entity wrote that. But it is just based on previous knowledge, not new insights.

I wonder if we somehow peaked in terms of generation of content, as AI based content will start using AI based content in their datasets for training, and that kind of loop usually ends up in worse outcomes.

Still, I think AI can be used to generate a good enough prediction.

Lucasgabd

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Quote from: dansus021 on October 26, 2023, 08:45:26 PM

To be honest, I'm generating the price of bitcoin or any kind of random number using the OpenAi chatGPT right now. Gamble cant be predicted especially with random numbers or bitcoin price I mean precisely. Si Usually I just talk to chat gpt and tell them to generate number in range between xx to xx. Till this date I never won but it is fun to chat with an AI hahahha

understanding that creation of phrases and numbers using an statistical model for the best possible response is different than predicting the future is a must

this article on how LLMs work is quite good to grasp the basics
What Is ChatGPT Doing … and Why Does It Work?

still a funny game, as you mentioned, but probably won't be so accurate, if it gets it right it'll be more due to luck than due to skill, kind like an oracle, maybe

Betwrong

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Quote from: Latviand on November 01, 2023, 05:00:48 AM

Quote from: Betwrong on October 31, 2023, 10:42:52 PM

Quote from: Latviand on October 26, 2023, 08:23:13 PM

~

Is it so? I've never encountered a gambling site where it's said in ToS that they will ban you if you are using AI. And I think that's because they don't regard it as a threat to them, gamblers using AI. At this point AI is in such state that some people can feel secure of their bet after consulting with it, but that would be not more than illusion.

Well, they need to update their ToS then because if not then they might find someone that will be winning a lot and they might suspect them of using AI and then ban them but then end up with them not on the right because they didn't have anything saying that prohibiting in their ToS the usage of AI. That's going to be a problem that casinos have to deal with now or it will come back and bite them in the ass because AI is getting better much faster and I'm not talking about the research AI ones, I'm talking about the commercial ones, even the free ones are pretty useful for many stuff already. Also even if you didn't encounter any casino that will ban you, they can always justify that it's cheating because you had an assistance and we all know that they're going to be doing whatever it takes to not pay winners if they're able to do it.

Yes, AIs are useful, but,for better or worse, not for making bets. I've checked that many times for sports betting, and and it gives you no edge whatsoever. Can you use AI to predict outcomes of slot games and dice? Well, that's a deeply philosophical question, innit?

Quote from: nullama on November 01, 2023, 07:34:07 PM

Quote from: Latviand on November 01, 2023, 05:00:48 AM

~snip~

The first thing that comes to mind to me is that basically it would be impossible to know someone was using an AI to make bets. How you come up with your bet is almost impossible to prove.
~

I think the same, but that's if you bet manually. If it's a bot of some kind, it can be spotted I think.

nullama

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Quote from: Latviand on November 01, 2023, 05:00:48 AM

~snip~
Well, they need to update their ToS then because if not then they might find someone that will be winning a lot and they might suspect them of using AI and then ban them but then end up with them not on the right because they didn't have anything saying that prohibiting in their ToS the usage of AI. That's going to be a problem that casinos have to deal with now or it will come back and bite them in the ass because AI is getting better much faster and I'm not talking about the research AI ones, I'm talking about the commercial ones, even the free ones are pretty useful for many stuff already. Also even if you didn't encounter any casino that will ban you, they can always justify that it's cheating because you had an assistance and we all know that they're going to be doing whatever it takes to not pay winners if they're able to do it.

The first thing that comes to mind to me is that basically it would be impossible to know someone was using an AI to make bets. How you come up with your bet is almost impossible to prove.

Second, is that AI might be great, but still the odds will probably be against you. So, yeah, maybe the AI can help you get closer to say 50/50 chances, but you still as a gambler will have slightly less odds, that's just how casinos design their games. It is basically impossible to bet on something that is not more favorable to the casino, by design.

Latviand

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Quote from: Betwrong on October 31, 2023, 10:42:52 PM

Quote from: Latviand on October 26, 2023, 08:23:13 PM

~

Is it so? I've never encountered a gambling site where it's said in ToS that they will ban you if you are using AI. And I think that's because they don't regard it as a threat to them, gamblers using AI. At this point AI is in such state that some people can feel secure of their bet after consulting with it, but that would be not more than illusion.

Well, they need to update their ToS then because if not then they might find someone that will be winning a lot and they might suspect them of using AI and then ban them but then end up with them not on the right because they didn't have anything saying that prohibiting in their ToS the usage of AI. That's going to be a problem that casinos have to deal with now or it will come back and bite them in the ass because AI is getting better much faster and I'm not talking about the research AI ones, I'm talking about the commercial ones, even the free ones are pretty useful for many stuff already. Also even if you didn't encounter any casino that will ban you, they can always justify that it's cheating because you had an assistance and we all know that they're going to be doing whatever it takes to not pay winners if they're able to do it.

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Quote from: moneystery on October 26, 2023, 09:25:36 PM

with the increasing development of ai technology, it has become a technological model that can help people analyze and provide results according to the data they collect. with its ability to collect data and provide results according to the data collected, ai technology is very dependent on the credibility and accuracy of the data it obtains.

i think it is very possible for ai to be able to provide analysis of a match based on analyzing the information it needs and provide predictions. but the problem is because it relies on information, accuracy and varying information, which makes ai a technology that can be relied on but can also make errors which makes it unable to predict the outcome of a match accurately.

and because of this, maybe i will use ai as a tool to predict a match, but it is not the main tool for me to use it to predict. it is just a second tool to simplify my analysis and help me to make better decisions.

AI can provide more accurate analysis and collection of data and information. But it will still take time until we get AI technology that matches what we need. At the moment, we haven't found it because the developers are still compiling or finding the right codes that can help humans collect information more quickly and accurately.

Until now, we can only enjoy what is already there and it can work well. Later, if there is an update from the developer that they have made an even better AI, we can try it and see how accurately the technology helps us collect information. It is not easy to create AI that suits what we want because developers have to test what they create to find one that is truly suitable for human use.

If later there is AI that can help collect data more quickly, it will help us to analyze the match so we can immediately place bets. But it looks like there will also be AI that can provide the percentage odds for each team so that we can choose based on what we know.

Betwrong

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Quote from: Latviand on October 26, 2023, 08:23:13 PM

~

Quote from: Betwrong on September 26, 2023, 06:44:23 AM

Quote from: Latviand on September 25, 2023, 11:56:50 PM

Regarding the morality of using AI for sportsbetting I think that it's not a bad idea to use them especially if it helps you put in perspective on the teams you want to bet on but using AI to bet blindly, I think it's stupid.

There's nothing immoral in using AI for sportsbetting. Unless it's forbidden by the site, you are good to go. But I undeerstand why the question arises. Anything new encounters suspicion and hostility at first. Like using zippers instead of buttons was considered "infernal" by some.

That's what I've said which I'm happy that you've agreed, although I frown upon the fact that betting sites would ban you if they ever suspect that you're using AI which is kind of stupid I guess because at most, the AI is pretty much just spouting common sense and you just want an affirmation so you can feel secure of your bet.

Is it so? I've never encountered a gambling site where it's said in ToS that they will ban you if you are using AI. And I think that's because they don't regard it as a threat to them, gamblers using AI. At this point AI is in such state that some people can feel secure of their bet after consulting with it, but that would be not more than illusion.

moneystery

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with the increasing development of ai technology, it has become a technological model that can help people analyze and provide results according to the data they collect. with its ability to collect data and provide results according to the data collected, ai technology is very dependent on the credibility and accuracy of the data it obtains.

i think it is very possible for ai to be able to provide analysis of a match based on analyzing the information it needs and provide predictions. but the problem is because it relies on information, accuracy and varying information, which makes ai a technology that can be relied on but can also make errors which makes it unable to predict the outcome of a match accurately.

and because of this, maybe i will use ai as a tool to predict a match, but it is not the main tool for me to use it to predict. it is just a second tool to simplify my analysis and help me to make better decisions.

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To be honest, I'm generating the price of bitcoin or any kind of random number using the OpenAi chatGPT right now. Gamble cant be predicted especially with random numbers or bitcoin price I mean precisely. Si Usually I just talk to chat gpt and tell them to generate number in range between xx to xx. Till this date I never won but it is fun to chat with an AI hahahha

Latviand

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Quote from: Betwrong on September 26, 2023, 06:44:23 AM

Quote from: Latviand on September 25, 2023, 11:56:50 PM

The current ChatGPT version only has 2022 data iirc so you're better off using Bard AI if you want to test out an AI's prediction on sports, Bard's still in experimental stage so tread lightly when you plan to use it for real.

OMG, you are right! I just checked and indeed Bard's knowledge is up to date:

I didn't know that, thank you! Have you tried to use Bard for predicting outcomes?

The only time that I've used Bard is for my work related stuff, creating Excel spreadsheets which is time consuming for me although it's very easy if you just know the ways to create the prompt. It's probably up to date because it's still on experimental stage so they want to feed Bard as much information as they can and probably make it a pay to use AI in the next year or two, for now it's a useful tool since you can get up to date information.

Quote from: Betwrong on September 26, 2023, 06:44:23 AM

Quote from: Latviand on September 25, 2023, 11:56:50 PM

Regarding the morality of using AI for sportsbetting I think that it's not a bad idea to use them especially if it helps you put in perspective on the teams you want to bet on but using AI to bet blindly, I think it's stupid.

There's nothing immoral in using AI for sportsbetting. Unless it's forbidden by the site, you are good to go. But I undeerstand why the question arises. Anything new encounters suspicion and hostility at first. Like using zippers instead of buttons was considered "infernal" by some.

That's what I've said which I'm happy that you've agreed, although I frown upon the fact that betting sites would ban you if they ever suspect that you're using AI which is kind of stupid I guess because at most, the AI is pretty much just spouting common sense and you just want an affirmation so you can feel secure of your bet.

nullama

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Quote from: Wakate on October 26, 2023, 04:35:45 AM

~snip~
I don't think using artificial intelligence to predict sport bet could give an 100% winning rate since that is just a prediction and anything can happen in sport. Even the most advanced and professional team can lose matches to newbie team that do not even have a great experience in sport. Sometimes luck happens especially in soccer games.

Using artificial intelligence can be a top notch that can help one to get a close outcome but can not be always accurate since the outcome is not mostly determined by game analyst or individual self. It all depends on people that are playing and the kind of momentum that can put in a game to have an excellent winning and also luck can be coupled to this to make an outcome become what we predicted.

One thing that some people forget is that these AIs like chatGPT are not really an intelligent being. They are very good at generating text that reads like a text written by a human.

And that creates the illusion that the AI is some kind of smart being. It is really useful, but it is not really something that can be used to predict the future with more precision than what the current machines can do.

It's not magic basically, and the probabilities are still going to be there, and the casinos will only put odds that favor themselves.

Topic: [POLL] Using AI to predict outcomes - page 6. (Read 10120 times)