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Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 23. (Read 73388 times)

vip
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.

Butterfly Labs took pre-orders and everyone was rightly skeptical. Then they shipped (extraordinary evidence). Same for Bitcoin Magazine. Does BitInstant or Bit-Pay, or MtGox or Bitcoinica or Bitstamp offer returns to investors? [edit: i mean crazy returns to most any investor]. Hell, does Silk Road? No, because those are all businesses actually generating profit.

So when pirate returns everyone's principle and interest, we'll have our extra ordinary evidence.  

If then yes, you would.

Well, If BFL ships ASIC, we can say they are legit.  Until then we get to call them scammers?
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic

Butterfly Labs took pre-orders and everyone was rightly skeptical. Then they shipped (extraordinary evidence). Same for Bitcoin Magazine. Does BitInstant or Bit-Pay, or MtGox or Bitcoinica or Bitstamp offer returns to investors? [edit: i mean crazy returns to most any investor]. Hell, does Silk Road? No, because those are all businesses actually generating profit.

So when pirate returns everyone's principle and interest, we'll have our extra ordinary evidence. 

If then yes, you would.
vip
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
Don't send me a pm unless you gpg encrypt it.

Butterfly Labs took pre-orders and everyone was rightly skeptical. Then they shipped (extraordinary evidence). Same for Bitcoin Magazine. Does BitInstant or Bit-Pay, or MtGox or Bitcoinica or Bitstamp offer returns to investors? [edit: i mean crazy returns to most any investor]. Hell, does Silk Road? No, because those are all businesses actually generating profit.

So when pirate returns everyone's principle and interest, we'll have our extra ordinary evidence. 
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
Oh man, who knew that all those companies issuing corporate bonds with no borrowers of their own were Ponzis?? This will be the next major financial scandal of the century! The entire fixed income market (way larger than the equity market!) is the largest Ponzi in history. Madoff should hang his head in shame.

With a corporate bond, the company itself is the borrower. And all the lenders (bond buyers) know the business of the company selling the bond. Apple might not release schematics and construction details of the iPad, but all their devices being sold in stores is evidence of actual profit generation. That's the extraordinary evidence which everyone can see.

Of course, even with AAA ratings it turned out that all the mortgage-backed-securities was a just a network of ponzi paper (the largest in history). And companies selling shares on stock exchanges much more reputable than GLBSE turn out to be fraudulent. Look at the report on Huabao, China's largest flavor and fagrance company by Anon Analytics.

Watch some episodes of American Greed, my favorite one is The Rise and Fall of CyberNet. The guy created fake invoices of big orders from Boeing, IBM, etc. to convince banks that he had their business. When the bankers came for a visit, he gave them a tour of his datacenter of server racks and blinking LEDs. It turned out the boxes were empty! No actual servers, just blinking LEDs. And with that the banks became his lenders.

Most of the other episodes are much more mundane ponzi schemes ripping off far less sophisticated "investors". Fraud is so commonplace among people offering returns that its the rule. Not the exception.

Butterfly Labs took pre-orders and everyone was rightly skeptical. Then they shipped (extraordinary evidence). Same for Bitcoin Magazine. Does BitInstant or Bit-Pay, or MtGox or Bitcoinica or Bitstamp offer returns to investors? [edit: i mean crazy returns to most any investor]. Hell, does Silk Road? No, because those are all businesses actually generating profit.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
MMM? Collapsed a long time ago. I have a share of MMM that my father gifted to me as a memory.

There was a 2011 one. It shut down not too long ago. And guess what: http://mmm2012.com/

It never gets old. Grin
hero member
Activity: 574
Merit: 500
I haven't read the whole thread, so forgive me if it's already been brought up... but has anyone considered he's invested in one of the most epic Ponzi's of all time, MMM?  If so, that could explain how he's able to pay what's he paying.


Didn't that one colapsed already? I remember reading something about it going bust.

MMM? Collapsed a long time ago. I have a share of MMM that my father gifted to me as a memory.

legendary
Activity: 1358
Merit: 1002
I haven't read the whole thread, so forgive me if it's already been brought up... but has anyone considered he's invested in one of the most epic Ponzi's of all time, MMM?  If so, that could explain how he's able to pay what's he paying.


Didn't that one colapsed already? I remember reading something about it going bust.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
I haven't read the whole thread, so forgive me if it's already been brought up... but has anyone considered he's invested in one of the most epic Ponzi's of all time, MMM?  If so, that could explain how he's able to pay what's he paying.
rjk
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
1ngldh
guy's name is pira-teat or something --  what DOES that mean anyway, "burning nipples" maybe?  
LOL

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Pirate_Looks_at_Forty
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1010
nanotube the 100 BTC fee you are getting is pretty good but you know you can put that 10000 BTC to WORK for you!!! 

I hear someone's offering 7% a week on deposits; guy's name is pira-teat or something --  what DOES that mean anyway, "burning nipples" maybe? 

Over the course of the bet you'd make 1.3 million BTC.  Its a SURE thing!!!

>>> btc = 10000
>>> for i in range(0,18*4): btc=btc*1.07
>>> print btc
1305064.551270706
donator
Activity: 266
Merit: 252
I'm actually a pineapple
Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?

www.wonga.com

They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year

A company offering loans is totally different than someone asking for loans. Obviously, their profit is limited by the number of borrowers they can find (it doesn't scale with the amount of capital they have). Which is another sign that pirates a ponzi: there are lots of lenders but no borrowers. If there are no borrowers, nobody is paying the interest..

Oh man, who knew that all those companies issuing corporate bonds with no borrowers of their own were Ponzis?? This will be the next major financial scandal of the century! The entire fixed income market (way larger than the equity market!) is the largest Ponzi in history. Madoff should hang his head in shame.
hero member
Activity: 501
Merit: 500
Maybe he's lending his money to an even bigger ponzi scammer who's paying 8%/week. Which would make his business legit but just as certain to fail.

The only other far-fetched scenario I can think of where his business might be legit is that he's tremendously wealthy (so that he has managed to pay all the interest from his own pocket instead of dipping into the borrowed principal) and he has some inside knowledge about BTC dropping to very close to $0 (below $.01 at least) very soon, so he can eventually pay back all his outstanding debt with no effort (having sold all the bitcoins while they still have value).

To be clear, I do not really think either of these is true. It's a ponzi scheme alright.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
FIAT LIBERTAS RVAT CAELVM
No *visible* borrowers. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

True, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

To be fair, I agree. But just because we don't see who he's lending to, doesn't mean they're not there.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?

www.wonga.com

They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year

A company offering loans is totally different than someone asking for loans. Obviously, their profit is limited by the number of borrowers they can find (it doesn't scale with the amount of capital they have). Which is another sign that pirates a ponzi: there are lots of lenders but no borrowers. If there are no borrowers, nobody is paying the interest..

No *visible* borrowers. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

True, but extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
FIAT LIBERTAS RVAT CAELVM
Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?

www.wonga.com

They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year

A company offering loans is totally different than someone asking for loans. Obviously, their profit is limited by the number of borrowers they can find (it doesn't scale with the amount of capital they have). Which is another sign that pirates a ponzi: there are lots of lenders but no borrowers. If there are no borrowers, nobody is paying the interest..

No *visible* borrowers. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?

www.wonga.com

They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year

A company offering loans is totally different than someone asking for loans. Obviously, their profit is limited by the number of borrowers they can find (it doesn't scale with the amount of capital they have). Which is another sign that pirates a ponzi: there are lots of lenders but no borrowers. If there are no borrowers, nobody is paying the interest..
hero member
Activity: 695
Merit: 500
Fair enough. 10 bitcents on the way. 238 would have been a bit closer …

The thing is that after 238 weeks you didn't yet earn 10 million BTC, and after 239 weeks you did.  Since interest is paid weekly he rounded up to the next week.

Yes, that is correct (with the assumption of whole weeks). Sharp thinking.
hero member
Activity: 695
Merit: 500
If your certainty about him being a Ponzi is anything less than 100% (and you said it was 98% last time I asked you), it isn't necessarily illogical to hedge. To be really simplistic about it, you think that there's a 1/50 chance you'll lose 5000 btc and and a 49/50 chance you'll get 10000. Simple expected value will value your "bet portfolio" at 9700 btc at maturity, but your one-year 2% value at risk is 0. Both of those could improve, depending on your model of his default probabilities over time, if you were willing to hedge Smiley

I could imagine some other considerations. One is that the time spent to do the hedging might be better spent on something more profitable. Then there is the weird problem that some simple-minded victims might get angry when somebody takes and spends the money they have just been robbed of, without any risk to himself. Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Fair enough. 10 bitcents on the way. 238 would have been a bit closer, so the next person who calculated that may also collect 0.1 BTC. SimBesh? Wallet address? Just for fun. Smiley

The thing is that after 238 weeks you didn't yet earn 10 million BTC, and after 239 weeks you did.  Since interest is paid weekly he rounded up to the next week.
hero member
Activity: 695
Merit: 500

Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount). Smiley


239 weeks, 0.1btc -> 1K86jhmEgnXLREKjE5gimH9zvwBVFcQi7t thanks

Fair enough. 10 bitcents on the way. 238 would have been a bit closer, so the next person who calculated that may also collect 0.1 BTC. SimBesh? Wallet address? Just for fun. Smiley

Addendum: Oops, the first calc also came from you. I overlooked that. And as the following message explains, 239 is actually correct under the assumption of whole week steps.
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