Why is it so hard for people to believe that loans can be made for 1% per day or even much higher ?
www.wonga.com
They say they 'only' charge 1% a day so 'only' 365% per year but the govt makes them display the APR (compounded interest); a whopping 4214% per year
Remember, this is an FSA regulated company, seal of approval by the UK government, not some dodgy loanshark around the corner
And believe it or not: they only lend money to people that have a certifiable income....but obviously can't get a loan from a bank or have acces to a credit card...
So now imagine what rate of interest you can charge when you lend to higher risk people without being regulated.....
Just saying....
Topic: Putting your money where Pirate's mouth is. - page 24. (Read 73388 times)
There really is no reasoning with you because you flat out see it as a ponzi because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises, even though they may/may not by faulty:
Have I missed something?
- No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.
- No business would borrow at 7% a week over the course of the long term.
- No business would continue to borrow at 7% over the course of the long term, instead opting to use their own funds/profits.
- Pirate has an insatiable appetite for more coins.
- Pirate won't reveal his day to day business operations.
Have I missed something?
That's a pretty comprehensive list, I think you covered all the bases.
Ok, now that we established the reasons you think its a ponzi, it is much simpler to talk about. Saying 'ponzi ponzi ponzi' doesn't make it one and its hard to rebut.
Now please explain how those items make pirate a ponzi. Don't pull in other stuff, use those items. You said it was a comprehensive list.
Right off the bat, I see items 1,2, and 5 as being patently false and not ponzi behavior, which leaves only 3 and 4, both of which need citation/documentation.
1. "patently false because i can imagine a scenario of 7% profits per week". Why not 10% per week, or 33% per week?
2 & 3. You said it
4. "pirate doesnt always accept new accounts." it makes sense to limit short-term growth, since it increases overall time and therefore overall size.
5. he said it himself. he wont and i dont blame him.
A large percent value for 1 (7%/wk is large) combined with 5 is a ponzi every time. Is there one historical example which turned out to be genuine profits? Because there are countless examples of ponzis. Which makes the claim of non-ponzi an extraordinary claim requiring extraordinary evidence.
Just to give a ballpark idea, since this thread started (July 4th) my net change in storage is +9.96%.
Including the profit made, or only the deposit?
lol good one.
Just to give a ballpark idea, since this thread started (July 4th) my net change in storage is +9.96%.
Including the profit made, or only the deposit?
hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.
seems rather illogical not to.
No. I'm clear on my stance, my BS&T exposure is and remains zero.
It's illogical for the same reason you don't play the Ponzi in the first place. No half-assed nonsense on my part.
Actually, your exposure is 5k btc.
… because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises …
Have I missed something?
- No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.
- …
Have I missed something?
Sure you have missed something. The above point is not an assumption, but a trivial truth (except for the mathematically challenged) in a non-inflating currency like bitcoin.
This discussion needs people with some minimal mathematical ability. It would be better for the few others to shut up and stop advertising their stupidity.
Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount).
I'll simplify the question to make it easier for you, imsaguy, so you have at least a 50-50 chance of getting it right. Does it take more or less than five years?
So while you were all busy getting condescending assuming I don't know math, you were too busy assuming and missed a key fact: how long has pirate been doing this?
I won't wait for your answer and instead tell you: less than 1 year. Now tell me if less than 1 year is considered long term in most businesses.
(waits)
Great, now that we know pirate isn't considered long term business yet, tell me how likely it is that a business can earn 7% a week in the short term.
You see, the ponzi tinfoil has blinded you. Pirate never claimed he was going to sustain this for years and years. As he's slowly reduced the rates, instead of you guys saying "oh, he's bringing his rates in line with a maturing business" you guys are claiming "its the end of the ponzi". Quite literally, you guys take anything you see and twist it to fit your theory, even if there's a reasonable explanation otherwise. Go watch X-Files or something, you'll feel better.
hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.
seems rather illogical not to.
No. I'm clear on my stance, my BS&T exposure is and remains zero.
It's illogical for the same reason you don't play the Ponzi in the first place. No half-assed nonsense on my part.
If your certainty about him being a Ponzi is anything less than 100% (and you said it was 98% last time I asked you), it isn't necessarily illogical to hedge. To be really simplistic about it, you think that there's a 1/50 chance you'll lose 5000 btc and and a 49/50 chance you'll get 10000. Simple expected value will value your "bet portfolio" at 9700 btc at maturity, but your one-year 2% value at risk is 0. Both of those could improve, depending on your model of his default probabilities over time, if you were willing to hedge
So basically, "DAMMIT THE PONZI IS COLLAPSING AND I NEED YOU TO DEPOSIT YOUR MONEY INTO IT, OTHERWISE I CAN'T GET MINE OUT".
No half-assed nonsense on my part.
No way. It's full blown nonsense or nothing!
You got it! I push this hard so that either I or the supporters have to explain themselves in the end. No evasive maneuvers.
No half-assed nonsense on my part.
No way. It's full blown nonsense or nothing!
hey Vandroiy, can i ask why you are not hedging your bet?? 66BTC at 65 weeks is all it would take...
seems rather illogical not to.
seems rather illogical not to.
No. I'm clear on my stance, my BS&T exposure is and remains zero.
It's illogical for the same reason you don't play the Ponzi in the first place. No half-assed nonsense on my part.
Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount).
It takes 205 weeks, or slightly less than 4 years:
>>> math.log(1e6, 1.07)
204.19430286596887
>>> float(205) / 52
3.9423076923076925
wut?
1 * (1.07^238) = 9 847 797.03
1 * (1.07^239) = 10 537 142.8
Duh. Fair enough.
>>> math.log(10e6, 1.07)
238.22668667696368 weeks
>>> float(239) / 52
4.596153846153846 years
Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount).
It takes 205 weeks, or slightly less than 4 years:
>>> math.log(1e6, 1.07)
204.19430286596887
>>> float(205) / 52
3.9423076923076925
wut?
1 * (1.07^238) = 9 847 797.03
1 * (1.07^239) = 10 537 142.8
what is it with all you critics... why can't you believe only one time?
somebody had to find the holy grail, the perpetuum mobile, the free lunch, the gold of the aztecs.
seeing is believing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KzOu7UxlqU
somebody had to find the holy grail, the perpetuum mobile, the free lunch, the gold of the aztecs.
seeing is believing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KzOu7UxlqU
Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount).
It takes 205 weeks, or slightly less than 4 years:
>>> math.log(1e6, 1.07)
204.19430286596887
>>> float(205) / 52
3.9423076923076925
Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount).
239 weeks, 0.1btc -> 1K86jhmEgnXLREKjE5gimH9zvwBVFcQi7t thanks
Running some numbers, I am prepared to make the following offer to you (or anybody else who is interested):
- invest 10 BTC minimum, 100 BTC maximum
- I guarantee a return on investment of 5% per week (not quite 7%, I admit, but enough to compete reasonably with pirate who will lower his rates on August 1st)
- invest 10 BTC minimum, 100 BTC maximum
- I guarantee a return on investment of 5% per week (not quite 7%, I admit, but enough to compete reasonably with pirate who will lower his rates on August 1st)
If I wasn't aware of who you were I'd say this has the same level of truthiness as Pirate. No real disclosure, just plans. However, since you're not a mysterious shadow figure, I doubt you'd Ponzi up since you have more to lose than most.
So are you serious or was this a piss-take to see who would blithely wander from one scam to the next without thinking? After which you'd return funds and deal a lesson well earned, I imagine.
I am serious. I will post a formal investment offer in the Securities subforum in a few minutes. Edit: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/mrbv-mrbs-ventures-closed-92513
Pirate may be a fraud (IMO) but he does inspire legitimate entrepreneurs...
Perhaps a suggestion to Pirate --just to shut the critics up:
Very simply, why not just return all the principal and interest to all of your clientele? …
Very simply, why not just return all the principal and interest to all of your clientele? …
It may be easier to convince just one of the bigger "investors" to withdraw. If it's a Ponzi scheme (which it obviously is), that would already burst the bubble.
"It's black!" "No, it's white" "No, it's definitely black because of x, y, and z!" "No, it's definitely white because of x, y, and z!"
Oh really? Or maybe it's actually...
Oh really? Or maybe it's actually...
… because of one or many of the following assumptions/premises …
Have I missed something?
- No business can earn 7%+ a week over the course of a long term.
- …
Have I missed something?
Sure you have missed something. The above point is not an assumption, but a trivial truth (except for the mathematically challenged) in a non-inflating currency like bitcoin.
This discussion needs people with some minimal mathematical ability. It would be better for the few others to shut up and stop advertising their stupidity.
Here is a little mathematical exercise for you. At 7% per week, how long does it take for one bitcoin to collect a compound interest of 10 million bitcoins? The first to answer this question correctly gets BTC0.1 from me (raising the question how long it would take for that tiny amount).
I'll simplify the question to make it easier for you, imsaguy, so you have at least a 50-50 chance of getting it right. Does it take more or less than five years?
Running some numbers, I am prepared to make the following offer to you (or anybody else who is interested):
- invest 10 BTC minimum, 100 BTC maximum
- I guarantee a return on investment of 5% per week (not quite 7%, I admit, but enough to compete reasonably with pirate who will lower his rates on August 1st)
- invest 10 BTC minimum, 100 BTC maximum
- I guarantee a return on investment of 5% per week (not quite 7%, I admit, but enough to compete reasonably with pirate who will lower his rates on August 1st)
If I wasn't aware of who you were I'd say this has the same level of truthiness as Pirate. No real disclosure, just plans. However, since you're not a mysterious shadow figure, I doubt you'd Ponzi up since you have more to lose than most.
So are you serious or was this a piss-take to see who would blithely wander from one scam to the next without thinking? After which you'd return funds and deal a lesson well earned, I imagine.
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