Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 166. (Read 907229 times)

I assume over time these cycles are going to squeeze most of the headless chickens out of the picture. I sure as shit hope so anyway because it's starting to well and truly get on my nerves.

At least someone else gets what's really going on.

I'm more interested in what the situation will be like 3-5 years from now.  The so-called bitcoin experts say that as market cap grows, bitcoin will become less volatile and thus a much more stable form of currency.  But I ask, if the pigs and sheep are still so easily swayed by FUD even when price/btc is at say $10k or even $40k, will bitcoin ever really be less volatile?  In other words if the volatility stays relative to the price (eg, still doing +/- 20% daily swings even 3-5 yrs in the future), then will bitcoin ever really be stable?  After what I witnessed today, I'm starting to seriously have my doubts.

This is a classic game of the crashing game where the Elite, through the government agencies and media, actually make the news (and hence the price).

They can short bitcoin for the last weeks and then, at the precise moment that they desire, BANG: "We are dumping BTCs"... price tumbles, they buy back at a lower level through the sheer volume of the sheepish panic sellers = epic win. Anyone who thinks this kind of move is randomly chosen, is... well... naive - to put it mildly.

There are two extremely valued abilities in finance.

The second most valued is knowing the future, because you can then play the market with confidence.

The first most valued ability is actually controlling the future. The Elite control the future. They create scenarios and "news" that capitalize on the "news-addiction" of traders that move like a herd, influencing the price towards the desired way. That's in most markets btw, it isn't something new. It's just now been played out with BTC as well.

Again, this is a classic case of controlling the future through the fbi "event" and the associated "news".

The pattern is repeatable. One must sell a few BTCs after new peaks and have cash standing by to buy the dips, relieving weak-handed traders who panic sell. In this way one can increase their BTC holdings while also acting as a stabilization force for the price of BTC.

I think we should petition Janet Yellen to have the Federal Reserve buy one 3000 bitcoin chunk at the auction and put it in cold storage. Just one. Not because they will do it, but so we can say I told you so in 5-10 years.

That's a great point.

There's probably some law that force them to sell any confiscated goods. Just like they sell other stuff, they have to sell Bitcoin too, I guess.

They will have to buy them on the market first.

When the U.S. goes bankrupt, they are going to regret having sold enough bitcoin to pay off the national debt, for a present value similar to filling up one SR-71's fuel tank.

I was targeting 700 three days from now. Thinking I got that one wrong which is why I just HODL. It is fun to chart though.

And correct me if I'm wrong, but this will be the first time that the US Government will have participated in a bona-fide, genuine, real life official BITCOIN TRANSACTION. Doesn't that, in a way, lend credibility? Sure, I know, they just did it to get if off their hands. Still ... on July 1, the US Government will have officially transacted in bitcoin. That's a special day. Not quite as special as Bitcoin Pizza Day, but has a similar-ish meaning.

Won't be long before they're paying Lockheed Martin in bitcoin, just you wait ...

(jk about that last part. sorta. )

correct. Who else would be buying all those coins, but long-time holders and investors. Whoever it is will not dump the coins at low prices - that's just crazy.

Overreaction to news of the Silk Road selloff.

According to http://bitcoinwatch.com/, the volume of BTC traded over the past 24 hours on all exchanges is somewhere around 150,000 btc. (Someone pls verify I'm reading the chart correctly ... ) Compare that to 30,000 btc that the US Marshals Service is going to selloff. Are they going to dump it on a single exchange over the next 10 seconds? No. They are giving us a 19-day warning (payment is due July 1 - see http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/ ). If total trade volume between now and then is (let's say) $2mil btc, an extra 30k just increases the volume over that time period by 1.5% -- a drop in the bucket.

The 80-point drop from 630 to 550 (a 12% drop) was panic selling. That's what happened. No TA required.

I'm glad to see the price go down before the auction. It only takes $$$ out of the hands of the feds and makes the buy price more attractive for large buyers who are also future hodlers.

it's really funny. I guess some TA people will try to align the previous SR flash crash with the current one and predict the new rally starts in 3 days

however, I think we will see some volatility until the coins are actually sold and the market is sure they will not be dumped. I think we will trad around 600 USD for the next few weeks...

Looking for a right shoulder: (click forward arrow to update chart) https://www.tradingview.com/v/gT8w1Qnq/

A break below 500 could invalidate the H&S pattern - doubtful that happens.

usually someone should pop up with a graph and a TA now, what happened? 

At SR1 it was dip 1/3, 2 days to almost recover, 11 days - start of rally.
At "SR2" it is dip 1/8, ?? days to almost recover, ?? days - start of rally. Next week probably?

nice find thanks.
its a online auction where u send in your bids privately as i understand.


well i guess my point could still be a possibility.

some hedge funds are frontrunning the gov, as they learned to do EVERY TIME. Don't worry, there will be others who will frontrun the frontrunners in the opposite direction. Too bad it will not be me.
Edit: haha, rebounded like a rubber band from $551 to $585

Explained here:
http://www.usmarshals.gov/assets/2014/bitcoins/

i think it depends on the method of how the sr coins get sold.
if the price is relative with some % to the market price, it would be smart to crash the market in some way before buying these 30 k coins for more profit/less money.