Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 168. (Read 907212 times)

Quote from: holomen on June 11, 2014, 08:48:04 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

Isn't this primarily the work of the willy bot? Is there any indication that this will happen naturally in the near future?

Todorius

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Quote from: cspeter8 on June 11, 2014, 08:29:04 AM

Quote from: cspeter8 on June 11, 2014, 08:29:04 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

how can you be confident it will not retest the lows of mid May of $450? Last 7 days seem to be gradually inching downwards.

I'm not a TA expert, just started to interpret and read about few weeks ago, but from my point of view, I have few arguments:

1.If there were a retest, it most probably would have started on first days of June.
2.We are about -0,39 from S.Reeds trendline.
3.Within 6 day period (2 hour chart) highest candles are still green
4.And the Selling is Caused by week hands and none of the strong ones wants to Donate their coins;)

This. All the indicators basically are very similar to the situation in Sep 2013.

holomen

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Activity: 54

Merit: 0

Quote from: cspeter8 on June 11, 2014, 08:29:04 AM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

how can you be confident it will not retest the lows of mid May of $450? Last 7 days seem to be gradually inching downwards.

I'm not a TA expert, just started to interpret and read about few weeks ago, but from my point of view, I have few arguments:

1.If there were a retest, it most probably would have started on first days of June.
2.We are about -0,39 from S.Reeds trendline.
3.Within 6 day period (2 hour chart) highest candles are still green
4.And the Selling is Caused by week hands and none of the strong ones wants to Donate their coins;)

madmat

legendary

Activity: 966

Merit: 1000

how can you be confident it will not retest the lows of mid May of $450? Last 7 days seem to be gradually inching downwards.

Nobody could know. There is a long term trend which is upward. But short term could go up and down a lot, volatility is high on this market.

cspeter8

newbie

Activity: 43

Merit: 0

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

how can you be confident it will not retest the lows of mid May of $450? Last 7 days seem to be gradually inching downwards.

Todorius

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: madmat on June 10, 2014, 03:49:57 PM

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

prophetx

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he who has the gold makes the rules

Quote from: rpietila on June 10, 2014, 03:30:10 PM

Quote from: BitChick on June 10, 2014, 11:15:07 AM

Quote from: RAJSALLIN on June 10, 2014, 09:35:55 AM

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

Some of us have already bought "like crazy" and are just waiting now. Wink

But there are always some that really don't think it will happen that will panic on the way up.

Bitcoin bubbles have no chance of happening with the existing players' money. A new generation that is exponentially larger always has to enter, for the prices to rise to the new levels. This is the reason why critics call it a pyramid scheme. But it is nevertheless true.

What distinguishes Bitcoin from a pyramid scheme is that a typical pyramid does not do anything useful, or the utility is very small, and there is no network effect. So when there is no "next generation" to be recruited, it collapses.

With Bitcoin, on the other hand, the utility of the network grows (according to Metcalfe's law even quadratically) relative to the number of bitcoin holders. So there is no collapse; when everybody has bought into Bitcoin and the value per unit is really high, they will just continue to use it happily ever after, because as a monetary technology, it is superior to all alternatives that have been tried in the past millennia (mainly: precious metals and fiat).

+1. And we need a lot of noise in media to get a larger generation entering bitcoin.

+1. Not exactly media attention. What needs to happen is that the protocol and higher level protocols that use the protocol (colored coins, msc, xcp, soon StorJ, etc) need to be integrated into end user consumer applications so that the experience is almost seamless.

Even with something like a USDCoin on bitcoin protocol, the number of BTC that would get tied up in transit if companies started using them to pay their employees and global contractors (i.e., something like Odesk) would have a significant impact on the underlying asset (BTC) used to transfer the USDCoin.

holomen

newbie

Activity: 54

Merit: 0

I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: aminorex on June 10, 2014, 06:10:17 PM

Quote from: Wary on June 04, 2014, 04:13:34 PM

Both ounce and bitcoin are arbitrary: gold can be measured in carats or grams, and bitcoins can be millibitcoins or decibitcoins or whatever. Isn't it better to compare market caps of gold and bitcoin?

So very true. Also, emission rate and loss rate.

But the true market cap of gold is immeasurable (and probably infinite due to the nigh infinite supply of gold in the universe plus the possibility of manufacturing it).

Yes, a very good argument for Bitcoin over gold indeed.

aminorex

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Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: Wary on June 04, 2014, 04:13:34 PM

Both ounce and bitcoin are arbitrary: gold can be measured in carats or grams, and bitcoins can be millibitcoins or decibitcoins or whatever. Isn't it better to compare market caps of gold and bitcoin?

So very true. Also, emission rate and loss rate.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: rpietila on June 04, 2014, 02:50:29 AM

Gold is valuable because it is the element that has the highest stocks:flows ratio (basically: it is the most plentiful)

This. Liquidity is 1000% of the currency game. That is why BTC shines so brightly. Despite extreme volatility, which damages liquidity profoundly, it has the technical infrastructure to be a superior liquidity vehicle.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Since we are now in page 200 which is kind of a lot... perhaps a quote of the OP is in order... Grin

Quote from: rpietila on January 05, 2014, 02:49:23 PM

Welcome to the new business lounge. Wine and cigars are on the house.

The intention of this thread is to post analysis on short to medium term fiat/BTC price developments, scenarios, portfolio allocation, etc. what fits the topic.

Today's wines are very various cheaper varieties (kind of prooftasting for Malla Courtyard Café that opens next week). We will have some nice options available also, and courteously ask our guests to reveal their favorite drinks in advance so that we can stock up.

Cigar tasting - Cohiba Siglo II and Romeo y Julieta Wide Churchills. The Malla Cigar List is currently 14 varieties, and we are slowly enlarging the selection to the more exotic brands. The flagship is now Cohiba Behike 52, retail €55.

The limousine fleet also received its first addition yesterday, BMW 760i Lang with red leather (not the pictured car).

madmat

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Activity: 966

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Quote from: rpietila on June 10, 2014, 03:30:10 PM

Quote from: BitChick on June 10, 2014, 11:15:07 AM

Quote from: RAJSALLIN on June 10, 2014, 09:35:55 AM

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

Some of us have already bought "like crazy" and are just waiting now. Wink

But there are always some that really don't think it will happen that will panic on the way up.

Bitcoin bubbles have no chance of happening with the existing players' money. A new generation that is exponentially larger always has to enter, for the prices to rise to the new levels. This is the reason why critics call it a pyramid scheme. But it is nevertheless true.

What distinguishes Bitcoin from a pyramid scheme is that a typical pyramid does not do anything useful, or the utility is very small, and there is no network effect. So when there is no "next generation" to be recruited, it collapses.

With Bitcoin, on the other hand, the utility of the network grows (according to Metcalfe's law even quadratically) relative to the number of bitcoin holders. So there is no collapse; when everybody has bought into Bitcoin and the value per unit is really high, they will just continue to use it happily ever after, because as a monetary technology, it is superior to all alternatives that have been tried in the past millennia (mainly: precious metals and fiat).

+1. And we need a lot of noise in media to get a larger generation entering bitcoin.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: BitChick on June 10, 2014, 11:15:07 AM

Quote from: RAJSALLIN on June 10, 2014, 09:35:55 AM

So if nearly everyone is expecting the same thing (another blow off top within 2 months) does this mean you are all going to be buying like crazy soon or are you expecting new buyers to enter in mass soon? Feels kind of odd. Also the number of transactions/day are still worrying but I guess it's likely they will follow when/if prices start climbing fast

Some of us have already bought "like crazy" and are just waiting now. Wink

But there are always some that really don't think it will happen that will panic on the way up.

Bitcoin bubbles have no chance of happening with the existing players' money. A new generation that is exponentially larger always has to enter, for the prices to rise to the new levels. This is the reason why critics call it a pyramid scheme. But it is nevertheless true.

What distinguishes Bitcoin from a pyramid scheme is that a typical pyramid does not do anything useful, or the utility is very small, and there is no network effect. So when there is no "next generation" to be recruited, it collapses.

With Bitcoin, on the other hand, the utility of the network grows (according to Metcalfe's law even quadratically) relative to the number of bitcoin holders. So there is no collapse; when everybody has bought into Bitcoin and the value per unit is really high, they will just continue to use it happily ever after, because as a monetary technology, it is superior to all alternatives that have been tried in the past millennia (mainly: precious metals and fiat).

BTCtrader71

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Activity: 784

Merit: 1001

Quote from: cspeter8 on June 10, 2014, 03:06:34 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on June 10, 2014, 02:52:03 PM

Quote from: thezerg on June 10, 2014, 02:17:38 PM

Quote from: BTCtrader71 on June 10, 2014, 02:52:03 PM

Is there any place besides btc.sx to leverage long when we start to approach the next bubble?

www.bitfinex.com

You basically borrow USD so you can buy bitcoin, using your current bitcoin holdings as collateral. The rates are very very high, close to 0.2% per DAY. On the flip side ... depositing fiat and lending it out gives you a pretty good ROI (although not as good as bitcoin itself for us bulls). The biggest risk would be that bitfinex collapses and runs away with your money.

The idea of depositing fiat seems attractive to me. Would you like to post your referral code so that I (and you as well?) get an incentive upon my signup?

Sure - I didn't know bitfinex had a referral program! I think perhaps I need to email them to get a referral code. Am doing that now.

cspeter8

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Activity: 43

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Quote from: thezerg on June 10, 2014, 02:17:38 PM

Quote from: thezerg on June 10, 2014, 02:17:38 PM

Is there any place besides btc.sx to leverage long when we start to approach the next bubble?

www.bitfinex.com

You basically borrow USD so you can buy bitcoin, using your current bitcoin holdings as collateral. The rates are very very high, close to 0.2% per DAY. On the flip side ... depositing fiat and lending it out gives you a pretty good ROI (although not as good as bitcoin itself for us bulls). The biggest risk would be that bitfinex collapses and runs away with your money.

The idea of depositing fiat seems attractive to me. Would you like to post your referral code so that I (and you as well?) get an incentive upon my signup?

BTCtrader71

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1001

Is there any place besides btc.sx to leverage long when we start to approach the next bubble?

www.bitfinex.com

You basically borrow USD so you can buy bitcoin, using your current bitcoin holdings as collateral. The rates are very very high, close to 0.2% per DAY. On the flip side ... depositing fiat and lending it out gives you a pretty good ROI (although not as good as bitcoin itself for us bulls). The biggest risk would be that bitfinex collapses and runs away with your money.

thezerg

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Activity: 1246

Merit: 1010